Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 32, Greens 10 (open thread)

A dent to Labor’s still commanding lead from Resolve Strategic, as it and Essential Research disagree on the trajectory of Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings.

The Age/Herald has published the second of what hopefully looks like being a regular monthly federal polling series, showing Labor down three points on the primary vote 39%, the Coalition up four to 32%, the Greens down two to 10%, One Nation up one to 6% and the United Australia Party steady on 2%. Based on preferences from the May election, this suggests a Labor two-party lead of 57-43, in from 61-39 last time. Anthony Albanese’s combined good plus very good rating is down one to 60% and his poor plus very poor rating is up two to 24%. Peter Dutton is respectively down two to 28% and up three to 40%, and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-17 to 53-19.

The poll also finds 54-46 support for retaining the monarchy over becoming a republic in the event of a referendum, reversing a result from January. The late Queen’s “time as Australia’s head of state” was rated as good by 75% and poor by 5%, while David Hurley’s tenure as Governor-General was rated good by 30% and poor by 13%, with the remainder unsure or neutral. Forty-five per cent expect that King Charles III will perform well compared with 14% for badly. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1607.

Also out yesterday was the regular fortnightly release from Essential Research, which features the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, though still nothing on voting intention. Its new method for gauging leadership invites respondents introduced last month is to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten, categorising scores of seven to ten as positive, zero to three as negative and four to six as neutral. Contra Resolve Strategic, this has Albanese’s positive rating up three to 46%, his negative rating down six to 17% and his neutral rating up three to 31%. Dutton’s is down three on positive to 23%, steady on negative at 34% and up four on negative to 34%.

The poll also gauged support for a republic, and its specification of an “Australian head of state” elicited a more positive response than for Resolve Strategic or Roy Morgan, with support at 43% and opposition at 37%, although this is the narrowest result from the pollster out of seven going back to January 2017, with support down one since June and opposition up three. When asked if King Charles III should be Australia’s head of state, the sample came down exactly 50-50. The late Queen posthumously records a positive rating of 71% and a negative rating of 8% and Prince William comes in at 64% and 10%, but the King’s ratings of 44% and 21% are only slightly better than those of Prince Harry at 42% and 22%. The September 22 public holiday has the support of 61%, but 48% consider the media coverage excessive, compared with 42% for about right and 10% for insufficient. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1075.

The weekly Roy Morgan federal voting intention result, as related in threadbare form in its weekly update videos, gives Labor a lead of 54.5-45.5, out from 53.5-46.5 and the pollster’s strongest result for Labor since the election.

Finally, some resolution to recent by-election coverage:

• Saturday’s by-election for the Western Australian state seat of North West Central produced a comfortable win for Nationals candidate Merome Beard in the absence of a candidate from Labor, who polled 40.2% in the March 2021 landslide and fell 1.7% short after preferences. Beard leads Liberal candidate Will Baston with a 9.7% margin on the two-candidate preferred count, although the Nationals primary vote was scarcely changed despite the absence of Labor, while the Liberals were up from an abysmal 7.9% to 26.7%. The by-elections other remarkable feature was turnout – low in this electorate at the best of times, it currently stands at 42.2% of the enrolment with a mere 4490 formal votes cast, down from 73.8% and 7741 formal votes in 2021, with likely only a few hundred postals yet to come. Results have not been updated since Sunday, but continue to be tracked on my results page.

• A provisional distribution of preferences recorded Labor candidate Luke Edmunds winning the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke by a margin of 13.3%, out from 8.7% when the electorate last went to polls in May 2019. Labor’s primary vote was down from 45.2% to 39.5% in the face of competition from the Greens, who polled a solid 19.3% after declining to contest last time, while the Liberals were up to 28.8% from 25.3% last time, when a conservative independent polled 18.4%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,935 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 32, Greens 10 (open thread)”

Comments Page 23 of 39
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  1. The biggest threat to Australia is the L/NP and Labor voting together on legislation to essentially protect the dangerous and outdated agendas of their donors.

  4. Rex ”Sounds like NSW voters need to get as many progressive community independents voted in as possible at their state election to get the BoP.”

    My vote is locked up in a blue-ribbon Liberal electorate – Lane Cove. That being the case, I will vote for a Teal-style independent if one runs, as I did in the Federal election, with my second preference going to Labor. Once again I might have the very rare experience since I moved into the area of voting for the winning candidate.

    For the Upper House, 1 Labor, Coalition last.

  5. ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 10:32 am
    Anyone else going to the CE Martin Dinner for the NSW Fabians to hear Robert Tickner speak? This ‘branchie’ will be at the top table with the rest of the Executive. Come and say, hi!
    ”

    Robert Tickner, The ALP federal government minister to hold the Federal seat of Hughes. Voted out with a swing of over 11% in 1996 Keating government landslide defeat.
    ALP never won the seat again till now. Voters of Hughes voted for worthless POS like Craig Kelly, if he was Liberal candidate. They voted to Jenny Ware in May, 2022 election, whom they never heard of before and who was hand-picked by Morrison (BTW, Morrison hand-picked 12 candidates in NSW for May election including Alex Hawke, Sussan Ley and Jenny Ware and 9 out of 12 candidates lost their seats).

  6. Comes the hour…comes the man…time for you to step up RHWombat!

    The DMS job at CHHC –
    certainly major issues are:
    1. the culture of the place (although it is benign compared to PMBH)
    2. the need to confirm to policy BUT, most importantly
    3. The poor selection of candidates and training for medical administrators –
    this is a problem for the profession (particularly RACMA) rather than the ministry

    (Now you have got me started:
    When someone asks me for career advice I say (in a Boston accent)
    “We do medical administration not because it is easy but because it is hard” Very few know the reference)

  7. ”
    Rex Douglassays:
    Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 10:36 am
    Sounds like NSW voters need to get as many progressive community independents voted in as possible at their state election to get the BoP.
    ”

    Go and tell Simon Holmes a Court about it.

  10. ”
    wranslidesays:
    Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 10:43 am
    C@tmomma. Robert Tickner is a great man. Please report back in general business on the topic!
    ”

    wranslide
    My report on Robert Tickner @10:54am. Not a great man if I may say so.

  13. frednk
    Hmmm… I had posted on insurance being a critical issue in WW1 and the likelihood that it would become a critical issue in Putin’s War.
    FUCK.
    Neon? The same only worse.
    FUCK.

  16. Shellbell @ #830 Saturday, September 24th, 2022 – 11:40 am

    Robert Tickner was an early spine standing up to Alan Jones.

    A lot of very offensive stuff here (least of which are Tickner’s braces).

    https://aso.gov.au/titles/documentaries/demons-drivetime/clip3/

    I am pretty sure Tickner went on Jones’ ill fated 1990s TV show and his contribution Media Watch played during its merry report of the demise of that show.

    Yes, he will be speaking about The justice Project.

  20. Good to see the Defence Fairytales persist….

    SMH
    Albanese, Biden and Truss also said they remained committed to ensuring the “highest level of nuclear safety, security and stewardship in this endeavour”.

    They said the three countries have also made significant strides in developing advanced capability in hypersonic missiles, electronic warfare capabilities, cyber, artificial intelligence, quantum technologies and undersea drones.

  22. Re the Hughes electorate, that’s changed character over the years. Encompassing a swathe of Sydney’d outer Southern suburbs from Sutherland to South of Liverpool, it used to be Labor-voting urban-rural fringe. Development since the 1990s has gentrified much of the area, with McMansion territory around Menai and other Western parts of the Sutherland LGA. I expect that much of the area is now more like Liberal-voting areas in Cook and Sydney’s NW.

  24. As a Melbourne resident not finding much love or interest in my area for the AFL GF. I think people are over the hype and in particular the last few days which have been a disaster for the AFL in PR terms. Many neighbours have gone away for the four day long weekend.

    Surprising given this is the first time since 2019 the GF has been played in Victoria due to the pandemic / lockdowns.

    Any thoughts from others around Melbourne / Geelong?

    Will be interesting to see the attendance at the Royal Show which started on Thursday as well.

  25. Alan Jones’ TV show was canned when he was caught quoting a character in a Robert Ludlum novel as an expert in world oil markets.

    Then there was cash for comment in 1999, which would have ended the career of any serious journalist or pundit.

    But Jones is neither. He and his ilk transmit to a devoted audience what they want to hear, echoing back their prejudice, fears, hatreds and inarticulate rage. It sells. In politics it gets votes. It explains why a Donald Trump can get away with almost anything.

  26. This one of those AFL grand Finals where I am not going into it with a preference of who I want to win.
    Both teams play good football, but I think Geelong will prevail.

  27. Grant_ExLibris @ #535 Saturday, September 24th, 2022 – 12:10 pm

    As a Melbourne resident not finding much love or interest in my area for the AFL GF. I think people are over the hype and in particular the last few days which have been a disaster for the AFL in PR terms. Many neighbours have gone away for the four day long weekend.

    Surprising given this is the first time since 2019 the GF has been played in Victoria due to the pandemic / lockdowns.

    Any thoughts from others around Melbourne / Geelong?

    Will be interesting to see the attendance at the Royal Show which started on Thursday as well.

    It seems quiet in my area as well. When I walked the dog did not notice any houses done up, which I have previous years. The wind is cold despite the sun. One house a few up had several cars parked so maybe a function there to watch the game. I think a lot of people have gone away for a 4 day break.

  28. UK YouGov @YouGov
    Do you think the changes the Chancellor announced this week will make people like you better or worse off, or will make no difference?

    Better off: 19%
    No difference: 34%
    Worse off: 28%

  29. Oakeshott country says:
    Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 10:56 am
    (Now you have got me started:
    When someone asks me for career advice I say (in a Boston accent)
    “We do medical administration not because it is easy but because it is hard” Very few know the reference)

    Going to the moon by the end of this deCADE is probably the easier task :-).

  31. Interesting one for the tech heads.

    https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/xa100-next-generation-adaptive-engine-could-now-power-f-35b-too

    Key takeaways for me:

    “Second, the XA100 is based around a three-stream architecture. “That third stream is primarily there to serve as a thermal management heat sink,” Tweedie said. This requirement is primarily driven by the exponential growth in thermal management demands for fifth- and sixth-generation fighters.”

    “Installing an XA100 in an F-35A should translate to 30 percent more range and acceleration increased by more than 20 percent. ”

    Interestingly if the will drop into an F35A, then they will probably drop straight into the new B21 Raider (after you remove the afterburner). something like B21 could probably benefit mainly from the thermal management features. As far as i know, a lot of thermal management at the moment is done by dumping heat into the fuel……which works less and less well as the fuel gets used up.

  33. Warrigal @ #1129 Saturday, September 24th, 2022 – 12:37 pm

    Oakeshott country says:
    Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 10:56 am
    (Now you have got me started:
    When someone asks me for career advice I say (in a Boston accent)
    “We do medical administration not because it is easy but because it is hard” Very few know the reference)

    Going to the moon by the end of this deCADE is probably the easier task :-).

    Hospitals have always been State-funded nursing institutions with visiting proceduralists “overseeing” medical apprentices: why we train our replacements in medicine there (and nowhere else) has always been a mystery to me. US style EDs now dominate hospitals – to the exclusion of all else except the acute ICU practice and infrastructure needed to support predictable elective surgery, and the sub acute medicine dumping grounds for those who don’t have the decency to get better and go home. BAM BAMs & Knob Twiddlers: the former being the ED types who practice Band Aid Medicine, then do the same thing again when it doesn’t work, and the latter including many ICU doctors who set the ventilator dials to get the blood gasses into normal range, but don’t diagnose or treat the underlying pathology ’cause it takes longer than one shift to work it out. Samuel Shem’s last book (Mans 4th Best Hospital) describes the descent from The House of God in depressingly familiar detail (“I am the Fat Man, I am the Walrus…”)

    Non-Emergency Medicine is practiced predominantly outside hospitals by those excluded from them. Nurses & proceduralists can’t do it.

  34. Much excitement and anticipation here in G-Town.
    The local paper, the Geelong Advertiser, is relatively subdued with only a 24 page wraparound supplement, although many of the “news” pages make some reference to the big game today.

    With a little over one hour before first bounce, you could discharge a shotgun in Moorabool St (main street in Geelong CBD) and not have to worry about hitting anyone. This will be in contrast to 5pm when the town will come to life after a successful campaign.

    Cats by 28 for mine.

    laughtong @ #1127 Saturday, September 24th, 2022 – 12:20 pm

    Grant_ExLibris @ #535 Saturday, September 24th, 2022 – 12:10 pm

    As a Melbourne resident not finding much love or interest in my area for the AFL GF. I think people are over the hype and in particular the last few days which have been a disaster for the AFL in PR terms. Many neighbours have gone away for the four day long weekend.

    Surprising given this is the first time since 2019 the GF has been played in Victoria due to the pandemic / lockdowns.

    Any thoughts from others around Melbourne / Geelong?

    Will be interesting to see the attendance at the Royal Show which started on Thursday as well.

    It seems quiet in my area as well. When I walked the dog did not notice any houses done up, which I have previous years. The wind is cold despite the sun. One house a few up had several cars parked so maybe a function there to watch the game. I think a lot of people have gone away for a 4 day break.

  35. RH
    A little harsh and cynical but mostly agree – attempting to have a different model of medicine will hit a brick wall of inertia and vested interest; not least the ministers and their ministries.
    The mediscare of 3 elections ago convinced me that change will not occur until the system has collapsed – lets say in 5 -10 years

    BTW I have a signed copy of “House of God” I got Shem to dedicate it to “Emma Chisit”

  37. Live in Geel. Neighbour has the little flags hanging out his car windows. A few houses in my street with posters in the windows.
    Just been to Torquay for a surf and the roads are quiet.
    On a personal level I haven’t really watched much football at all this year. Nowhere near as much as I used too.
    Will watch the start and then will be outside in the garden with the radio on.
    Barracking for the Swans

  38. C@tmommasays:
    Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 1:21 pm
    Good luck, Justin from Geelong. You’re going to need it!
    —————————–
    What are you basing your confidence on C@t.
    NSW bias?
    (And you pinched Sydney from my old mates team South Melbourne that he coached).
    Go Catters!

  39. So pleased to see you have recovered and are back on-line C@tmomma.
    I thought you might be a little confounded on who to support, I take it you generally love cats, but maybe not the blue and white ones, but I get the impression you are a New South Wales person, so I am impressed that you follow the great Aussie Rules code. I’ll take your good luck and raise you a continuing recovery. Happy Grand Final Day to everyone in PB land!
    C@tmomma @ #1136 Saturday, September 24th, 2022 – 1:21 pm

    Good luck, Justin from Geelong. You’re going to need it! 😆

  41. Weeding was more challenging today. The tree is easily 6m tall, with thick spreading foliage up to 10m in any direction. The tree still stands proud, but a blow has been struck. It will take a few days, but victory will be ours.

    Native to South America, broadleaved pepper tree is a large, spreading tree. In Australia, it has escaped gardens and invaded coastal dune lands, wetlands and streambanks. It also out-competes and replaces native grasses used in grazing, and can harbour mango black spot disease and witches’ broom diseases that affect citrus. Broadleaved pepper tree is common in many habitats in South East Queensland. You must manage the impacts of Broad-leaved pepper tree on your land. You must not give away, sell or release Broad-leaved pepper tree into the environment.

    https://www.business.qld.gov.au/industries/farms-fishing-forestry/agriculture/land-management/health-pests-weeds-diseases/weeds-diseases/invasive-plants/restricted/broadleaved-pepper-tree

  42. Seven goals. 17 to 10!
    ————————–
    Ancient form yabba.
    But 17 stands out for me also – 17 behinds not to mention more scoring shots.

  43. Frustratingly, Australia’s cheapest EV (and the one you can actually buy today if you walked into a dealer, and not simply put yourself on a months long waiting list), the MG SZ EV Excite – driveway price of $44,900 is still $22,000 dealer than the cheapest ICE variant of the same car – the $22,900 drive away MG SZ Excite.

    Throwing $5K per car as a tax payer subsidy is not going to get manufactures ‘there’ with the promised price parity by the middle of this decade. The running cost savings are probably limited to less than $2,000 per annum net (on an assumed average 15,000km annual usage and an average petrol price of $1.70 per litre). However,, you can effectively double that saving by using the L2V dual direction charging function to run your house off the EV during the evenings, and mornings before the daily commute (with the EV recharging itself by an automatic timer switch to use off peak electricity in the early hours).

    However, that $4K+ ‘saving’ would still mean you wont make your capital outlay back for around 5 years. Probably longer when real world factors come into play.

    We really have a long way to go with this transition, don’t we?

  44. Oakshott, RH: about 35 years ago, still a student, I read House of God on the plane over to the UK, and laughed so much that the bloke in the next seat was clearly non-plussed.

    Reread it about 15 years later.

    This time I cried.

  45. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1142 Saturday, September 24th, 2022 – 2:05 pm

    We really have a long way to go with this transition, don’t we?

    Yes and no. Price parity is a long way off, if looking at the sticker price on a new vehicle. Especially while EV demand is soaring (and outpacing production capacity) as ICE demand concurrently craters.

    But if you look at total cost of ownership over the average lifetime of the vehicle there’s tons of analysis out there demonstrating that the EV is actually cheaper, already. Even for relatively costly EV’s like the Model 3. Not having to pay $2/liter for petrol is a big help, and maintenance costs are significantly less on the EV.

  46. Turning to the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV – the base ES model retails for $54.590 plus onroads. Let’s say around $57,000 drive away. The ICE ES retails for $40,090 drive away. So that’s a $17K mark up in price there. The price differential for the next model up – the Exceed (which i reckon hits the sweet spot in terms of extras) is $50K vs $66K – ie. $16K, or just over 30%.

    For me, I do about 20,000km each year – 10,000 of those are country kilometres where most of the power would be derived from the 2.5 litre ICE engine, so there would only be some marginal gains in fuel economy when driving in hybrid mode. Less than $500 per annum I’d suggest. However, the other 10,000km are urban kilometres, with over 90% of all journeys well within the 80km EV range and done under 70kmh. I reckon I’d save around $1,200 per annum giving me a combined savings of around $1700 per year PLUS another approximately $1500 because of the V2L function at home (I am already saving in excess of $1,000 per year because of my solar batteries and the habit of running all the expensive power unit stuff – pool pumps, dishwasher, clothes washer during the day time, and the installation of LED lighting throughout the home).

    So, that would still mean it would take me 5 years to ‘make my money back’. However, those ‘back of a beer coaster’ calculations assume contestant pricing for both petrol and grid electricity. … hmmm.

    I reckon it is still worth it.

  47. A-E

    Have a look at Frednk’s link for some additional perspective.

    I was talking to a senior global project manager the other day.

    He was talking about the issues with speeding up a construction site. Current workforce around 4,000. To scale up and get the job done on time he needs to get 25,000 workers through the gates.
    Per day.

    Multiple that by squillions and even such a relatively simple thing as getting everyone into EVs looks yuuuuuuuuge.

    In a global context, Australian EV policy settings are mindor fiddling at the edges essentially increase demand plus middle class welfare added.

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