The Age/Herald has published the second of what hopefully looks like being a regular monthly federal polling series, showing Labor down three points on the primary vote 39%, the Coalition up four to 32%, the Greens down two to 10%, One Nation up one to 6% and the United Australia Party steady on 2%. Based on preferences from the May election, this suggests a Labor two-party lead of 57-43, in from 61-39 last time. Anthony Albanese’s combined good plus very good rating is down one to 60% and his poor plus very poor rating is up two to 24%. Peter Dutton is respectively down two to 28% and up three to 40%, and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-17 to 53-19.
The poll also finds 54-46 support for retaining the monarchy over becoming a republic in the event of a referendum, reversing a result from January. The late Queen’s “time as Australia’s head of state” was rated as good by 75% and poor by 5%, while David Hurley’s tenure as Governor-General was rated good by 30% and poor by 13%, with the remainder unsure or neutral. Forty-five per cent expect that King Charles III will perform well compared with 14% for badly. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1607.
Also out yesterday was the regular fortnightly release from Essential Research, which features the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, though still nothing on voting intention. Its new method for gauging leadership invites respondents introduced last month is to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten, categorising scores of seven to ten as positive, zero to three as negative and four to six as neutral. Contra Resolve Strategic, this has Albanese’s positive rating up three to 46%, his negative rating down six to 17% and his neutral rating up three to 31%. Dutton’s is down three on positive to 23%, steady on negative at 34% and up four on negative to 34%.
The poll also gauged support for a republic, and its specification of an “Australian head of state” elicited a more positive response than for Resolve Strategic or Roy Morgan, with support at 43% and opposition at 37%, although this is the narrowest result from the pollster out of seven going back to January 2017, with support down one since June and opposition up three. When asked if King Charles III should be Australia’s head of state, the sample came down exactly 50-50. The late Queen posthumously records a positive rating of 71% and a negative rating of 8% and Prince William comes in at 64% and 10%, but the King’s ratings of 44% and 21% are only slightly better than those of Prince Harry at 42% and 22%. The September 22 public holiday has the support of 61%, but 48% consider the media coverage excessive, compared with 42% for about right and 10% for insufficient. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1075.
The weekly Roy Morgan federal voting intention result, as related in threadbare form in its weekly update videos, gives Labor a lead of 54.5-45.5, out from 53.5-46.5 and the pollster’s strongest result for Labor since the election.
Finally, some resolution to recent by-election coverage:
• Saturday’s by-election for the Western Australian state seat of North West Central produced a comfortable win for Nationals candidate Merome Beard in the absence of a candidate from Labor, who polled 40.2% in the March 2021 landslide and fell 1.7% short after preferences. Beard leads Liberal candidate Will Baston with a 9.7% margin on the two-candidate preferred count, although the Nationals primary vote was scarcely changed despite the absence of Labor, while the Liberals were up from an abysmal 7.9% to 26.7%. The by-elections other remarkable feature was turnout – low in this electorate at the best of times, it currently stands at 42.2% of the enrolment with a mere 4490 formal votes cast, down from 73.8% and 7741 formal votes in 2021, with likely only a few hundred postals yet to come. Results have not been updated since Sunday, but continue to be tracked on my results page.
• A provisional distribution of preferences recorded Labor candidate Luke Edmunds winning the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke by a margin of 13.3%, out from 8.7% when the electorate last went to polls in May 2019. Labor’s primary vote was down from 45.2% to 39.5% in the face of competition from the Greens, who polled a solid 19.3% after declining to contest last time, while the Liberals were up to 28.8% from 25.3% last time, when a conservative independent polled 18.4%.
Oakeshott Country says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 9:54 pm
Penrith v Parramatta
An interesting grand final prospect
中华人民共和国
What’s your tip cobber?
I’m a panfer (having lived there for 10 years)
Oakeshott Country says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 10:00 pm
I’m a panfer (having lived there for 10 years)
中华人民共和国
Yeah matey better than an Eel cobber so best of luck to you. At least no Roosters.
It doesn’t seem to matter much which of the major parties you vote for, the outcome is always neo-liberalism!
Government by the rich, for the rich.
I’ve just received a message from my GP, who I’ve been with and bulk billed for 12 years, they can no longer afford to bulk bill people on pensions. The charges are now $42 for a consultation upto 6 mins and $72 for 7 mins or over.
How can you have a consultation under 7 minutes?
I am incredibly biased, but I do have a few skills to try and balance my analysis, my bias it that I think Corbyn / AOC have exactly the right political message for a democracy (clearly AOC is operating in a country that is a long way post democracy, if it ever had it) and that the Starmer / Pelois / Australian Labor centrists are a problem not a solution.
So I perhaps enjoyed the Labour Party files more than most:
https://youtu.be/elp18OvnNV0
Good news for the poor buggers of NSW
“NSW Labor has opened a commanding lead over the Coalition just six months out from the state election despite Dominic Perrottet recording strong personal approval ratings and maintaining preferred premier status over Chris Minns.
A Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Weekend Australian, shows Labor’s primary vote of 40 per cent has risen 6.7 per cent since the 2019 election, while the Coalition’s primary vote has slumped 6.6 per cent to 35 per cent.
With the Coalition having held power for 11 years, half of those surveyed believed it was time to “give someone else a go’’, while only 31 per cent of those surveyed believed the Coalition deserved to be re-elected.
On a two-party-preferred basis, Labor holds a 54-to-46 per cent lead, a 6 per cent swing compared with 2019. If the result was repeated on a uniform basis next March, Labor would be on track to win up to seven seats, leaving it short of the 10 seats it requires for a majority in its own right.”
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/give-someone-else-a-go-nsw-labors-stakes-rise-in-newspoll/news-story/72a35c50419a67bd2cb616db4c65942e
‘Give someone else a go’: Labor’s stakes rise
NSW Labor has opened a commanding lead over the Coalition just six months out from the state election, Newspoll finds.
Perrottet in trouble.
WWP has found his inner trot nirvana. Bless, pettle. Bless.
Chris Minns. Chance the Gardner of NSW?
Tories “more” on the on the nose outside Sydney
“While support for the Greens has lifted 2.4 points to 12 per cent since 2019, the perceived threat of a “teal wave” in NSW appears unlikely.
The primary vote for “others’’, which includes One Nation, independents and Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, has fallen 2 per cent to a cumulative 13 per cent.
The poll found only 29 per cent of those surveyed who lived outside Sydney believed the government deserved to be re-elected, compared with 32 per cent who lived in Sydney.”
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/give-someone-else-a-go-nsw-labors-stakes-rise-in-newspoll/news-story/72a35c50419a67bd2cb616db4c65942e
Best NSW Labor poll in 15 years.
“Dominic Perrottet is in the fight of his life.
Despite being NSW Premier for only 12 months, Perrottet faces an It’s Time factor that is weighing down the 11-year-old Coalition government.
Half of those surveyed in an exclusive Newspoll for The Weekend Australian, indicated it was time to give someone else a go.
Six months out from the election, Labor holds an eight-point two-party-preferred lead over the Coalition, making it odds-on favourite to win in March. It is Labor’s best poll in 15 years, right before it won its last NSW state election in 2007.
The Coalition is facing a six per cent primary-vote swing against it, which appears to be transferring directly to Labor.”
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/nsw-newspoll-dominic-perrottet-needs-to-pull-several-rabbits-out-of-hat/news-story/069e6d0d9edfac4684d13a433ee9d762
Dame Hilary Mantel has died!
@4thEstateBooks
We are heartbroken at the death of our beloved author, Dame Hilary Mantel, and our thoughts are with her friends and family, especially her husband, Gerald. This is a devastating loss and we can only be grateful she left us with such a magnificent body of work.
Estonia & Finland have joined New Zealand, UK, Germany, USA, Sweden, France, Romania, Poland, Italy, Denmark and Ireland to file a declaration of intervention at the International Court of Justice to support Ukraine in the proceedings against Russia for committing genocide.
Why has Australia not also filed?
Come on Andrew. Minns, as a Labor Premier, will be a far sight better than Perrottet.
I reckon the poll is an outlier though.
“ Come on Andrew. Minns, as a Labor Premier, will be a far sight better than Perrottet.
I reckon the poll is an outlier though.”
_________
What a low bar to set as a comparator.
Can we have someone authentic?
Maybe Roy Burgandy?
”
Upnorthsays:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 10:38 pm
Tories “more” on the on the nose outside Sydney
“While support for the Greens has lifted 2.4 points to 12 per cent since 2019, the perceived threat of a “teal wave” in NSW appears unlikely.
The primary vote for “others’’, which includes One Nation, independents and Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, has fallen 2 per cent to a cumulative 13 per cent.
The poll found only 29 per cent of those surveyed who lived outside Sydney believed the government deserved to be re-elected, compared with 32 per cent who lived in Sydney.”
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/give-someone-else-a-go-nsw-labors-stakes-rise-in-newspoll/news-story/72a35c50419a67bd2cb616db4c65942e
”
This is nub of the problem where PV outside Sydney metropolitan is only 29% because LNP is supposed to be strong outside Sydney.
Based on this when Murdoch paper analysis that NSW Labor will only gain 7 seats at 54-46 2PP is not believable.
”
Rakalisays:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 10:50 pm
Estonia & Finland have joined New Zealand, UK, Germany, USA, Sweden, France, Romania, Poland, Italy, Denmark and Ireland to file a declaration of intervention at the International Court of Justice to support Ukraine in the proceedings against Russia for committing genocide.
Why has Australia not also filed?
”
Why should Australia file? Why should it put finger in each and every thing?
See what happened when Morrison government asked for investigation on origins of COVID at the behest of USA, it backfired spectacularly on Australia and USA was main beneficiary of that action.
Australia stayed way past its useby date in Afghanistan and what was result of prolonged stay. Some in our Armed forces committed war crimes. Why do we keep doing these things and land ourselves in unnecessary trouble?
Simply I don’t get. It is not as if we have politicians who are of outstanding calibre, who can convince the world with righteous behaviour and and upstanding nature to do the right thing.
That’s ridiculous – 54/46 and they still can’t win a majority in their own right. What kind of a gerrymander is that?
”
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 11:26 pm
“ Come on Andrew. Minns, as a Labor Premier, will be a far sight better than Perrottet.
I reckon the poll is an outlier though.”
_________
What a low bar to set as a comparator.
Can we have someone authentic?
Maybe Roy Burgandy?
”
Or Penny Sharp?
One thing is for sure. A lot of People stopped listening and believing to MSM pontification and outrageously political bias towards LNP due to lived experience.
Rakalisays:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 10:16 pm
I’ve just received a message from my GP, who I’ve been with and bulk billed for 12 years, they can no longer afford to bulk bill people on pensions. The charges are now $42 for a consultation upto 6 mins and $72 for 7 mins or over.
How can you have a consultation under 7 minutes?
_____________________
It won’t be easy under Albanese.
You can’t say you weren’t warned.
”
Boerwarsays:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 7:59 pm
The UN is a sick puppy.
The human rights committee includes countries that have ghastly human rights records. It also contains the biggest emitter on the planet. It is corrupt.
”
You think!
”
Upnorthsays:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 9:09 pm
Ray (UK) says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 9:03 pm
Kwasi Kwarteng had delivered the Tories mini-budget
It’s being described as Reaganism, the biggest tax cuts since ’72 apparently
Lots for the millionaires and a bit of union-busting too
The markets didn’t like it, the headline on Bloomberg is ‘Truss’ economic plan sends markets into meltdown’
中华人民共和国
My Pommie mate who packed up sticks and moved back to London has decided to move back to Thailand. He reckons Pommie Land has gone rat shit.
”
Indeed Upnorth! Indeed. They have gone batshit crazy. 🙂
As A-E would like to say, oh the humanity. I wouldn’t have cared if not for my Son’s family living in England.
Taylormade
The pathetic Coalition dont even believe in Medicare.
”
Holdenhillbillysays:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 9:33 pm
U.S. CRUDE OIL FUTURES FALL BY $3 TO $80.49.
Lowest in 9 months.
”
But the bowsers are not budging.
”
Taylormadesays:
Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 12:06 am
Rakalisays:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 10:16 pm
I’ve just received a message from my GP, who I’ve been with and bulk billed for 12 years, they can no longer afford to bulk bill people on pensions. The charges are now $42 for a consultation upto 6 mins and $72 for 7 mins or over.
How can you have a consultation under 7 minutes?
_____________________
It won’t be easy under Albanese.
You can’t say you weren’t warned.
”
TaylorMade
Why are you working so late? 🙂
Ven @ #1022 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 3:18 pm
Where does your son live Ven?
Snowden reveals his nation is engaged in building an Orwellian state. Pretty courageous.
But some folk think that wasn’t enough, he should have also gone to gaol for 20 years to show he was a true martyr.
I assume these posters are also in favour of the rapid return of any whistle blowrs from Iran, China, Russian etc that are accused of leaking state secrets.
Pathetic
GG posted some very interesting stuff around 2007 and before, but I haven’t noticed anything in the last 5 years that was anything other than a snipe at someone else.
Sad
Ven @ #1016 Saturday, September 24th, 2022 – 12:01 am
Fairly large qualitative difference between 1) playing into right-wing conspiracy theories or 2) joining a war on the side of the aggressors and something like supporting Ukraine against Russia, imo.
Point taken regarding the possibility of poor (to put it mildly) outcomes. But the outcome isn’t the only factor. Motives and ethics count. I’d agree that it’s not worth risking a bad outcome for stupid or unethical reasons (like #1 and #2, respectively). Risking a bad outcome for a good reason (and helping Ukraine is a very good reason) is okay.
Rakali @ #1013 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 10:50 pm
Good question.
Risking a bad outcome for a good reason (and helping Ukraine is a very good reason) is okay.
Haven’t heard of one Australian soldier being injured, captured or killed in Ukraine. So what’s the problem with helping them out against a vile aggressor? Although golf clap to Modi for telling Putin to his face that now is not the era for war… then engaging in military exercises with Russia. 😐
Taylormade @ #1020 Saturday, September 24th, 2022 – 12:06 am
The only uneasiness will come from the hangover after ~10 years of Coalition Stuff-Up Government. It was messed-up under Morrison.
Peter Dutton really is a bottle of political urine. Now he’s out there trying on the line that the government are making up the Voice plan, ‘on the run’. Not true, of course, but he reckons if he says it 50 bajillion times with a straight face people will believe him. 🙄
Taylormade ” It won’t be easy under Albanese.
You can’t say you weren’t warned.”
…after nine years of incompetence, corruption and neglect on the part of the Coalition Governments. The Augean Stables can’t be cleaned overnight.
Just popped up in my news feed: “With the state election due exactly six months on Saturday, Labor’s primary vote has hit 43 per cent – a 10-point increase since the 2019 election, while the Coalition’s has slumped to just 30 per cent – a massive 12-point drop since the last election.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-labor-secures-election-winning-lead-as-voters-abandon-the-coalition-20220923-p5bkg4.html
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/09/21/resolve-strategic-labor-39-coalition-32-greens-10-open-thread/comment-page-21/#comment-3983180
Forget planet, people before beliefs, orgs, the Fibs/ Nats are always on the haves/ capital side. Never have nots/ labor.
The are at best courtiers or acolytes for merchant kings and warlords.
So let’s see how red Liebor/ blue Libs lite go in the budget (anything on poverty/ (public rather than PPPs rather than outsourced/ privatised) housing/ infrastructure, opportunity, cost of living, education, environment, healthcare, human rights, rather than national security and public safety), after all we’ve all seen the ‘weren’t Stone Age conditions great’ policy choices, incompetency, lack of services on display to 2022, to 2007, to 1983.
Just take governance, pandemic, climate, inequality, powershift … as examples.
A few years ago my GP’s practice got taken over, corporatised, and bulk billing ceased, I went elsewhere, which wasn’t as straight forward as I wanted or thought since many don’t any longer, though they do charge extra on the weekend, they also do telehealth, which I can do between office and home, once in a while.
I also noticed Medicare items disappearing, like diagnostics. Though did find fully funded MRIs available 30 minutes away, not sure that improved since Jul 2021, far from it.
I asked the old GP for a copy of my files, wouldn’t release them without a charge seemed to be the instructions (the equivalent of a long consult for the receptionist to run it through the photocopier or dump to a USB memory stick), but much was on MHR/ my.gov.au anyway.
Let’s see if Albo can get a progressive alliance going with minor parties and independents.
For now VIC and NSW polls certainly don’t seem to favour a conservative coalition of Fibs/ Nats, never mind all the land clearing, climate change resources, making Australia a target, not trickling down, given we’ve all seen how extreme disaster capitalism did.
Be it pandemic, GWOT, GFC, and that is just this century …
Shares tumbled anew in New York as fears of a recession drove key benchmarks below or almost below their June lows, with losses trimmed in a last-minute buying reprieve.
All 11 S&P 500 industry sectors fell, with energy down 6.8 per cent as US oil slid below $US80 a barrel.
On Wall St: Dow -1.6% S&P 500 -1.7% Nasdaq -1.8%
In New York: BHP -4.6% Rio -5.8% Atlassian -1.4%
Tesla -4.6% Apple -1.5% Amazon -3% Chevron -6.5%
The Dow slid 486 points to 29,590, its lowest close of 2022; it earlier fell more than 800 points. The VIX leapt 9 per cent to 29.99; it briefly topped 32. The S&P 500 settled at 3693.
“Unsettling market volatility is going to be here for a while as Wall Street broadly downgrades their end of year S&P 500 targets,” Oanda’s Edward Moya said in a note.
Goldman slashed its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 3600 from 4300, which it had made in mid-August. “The expected path of interest rates is now higher than we previously assumed, which tilts the distribution of equity market outcomes below our prior forecast.”
“Based on our client discussions, a majority of equity investors have adopted the view that a hard landing scenario is inevitable and their focus is on the timing, magnitude, and duration of a potential recession and investment strategies for that outlook.”
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/wall-st-drops-uk-markets-collapse-in-broad-rout-20220924-p5bkna#Echobox=1663957922
With opv the party who polls the largest primary vote gets a bonus..per Newspoll alp 40/35 … this is dire for the libs
Is NSW labour snatching defeat from the jaws of victory? Can’t help but feeling that dropping Adam Searle has been a spectacular own goal from Chris Minns. Searle has been a standout operator in the upper house and enquiries, and the only reason he has been punted from what I can see is factional bullshit. It seems to have triggered more fractional BS from Tanya Mihailuk who has resurrected memories of Eddie Obeid.
Labor had an absolute gift in the John Barillaro saga , and the usual rorting and incompetence from the coalition, but this factional BS doesn’t inspire confidence in NSW Labor, if you can’t govern yourselves etc
Hopefully we get a minority ALP government with the greens and some sensible indies (eg Helen Dalton) to keep them honest.
Will be an interesting election, the coalition can’t really run on its record, I haven’t heard much in the way of policy from Minns, and neither side can really run on integrity or team unity. Wonder what they WILL campaign on? I spose Labor have got “it’s time” ?
OIL FUTURES DOWN 5% OVERNIGHT.
The latest UK tax cuts once again demonstrate how the Right don’t care about debt and deficit so long as it benefits people and causes they like.
Steve777 @ #1035 Saturday, September 24th, 2022 – 6:33 am
Expect Eddie Obeid’s face to be on every Liberal poster in NSW. Also much crap to be flung and Black Ops to be carried out, directed at the ALP, after Perrottet was caught meeting with Howard and Chris Corrigan this week.
Ever since we launched our election model in late June, it has moved entirely in one direction: toward Democrats. Pretty much every week, they’ve either gained ground in our forecast or held steady.
This week has been more in the “held steady” category. In the Deluxe version of our model, Democrats’ chances of keeping the Senate are 71 percent, while their chances of holding the House are 31 percent. Neither number has meaningfully changed from a week ago.
As Democrats’ position has continually improved, I’ve tended to focus on optimistic scenarios for Democrats. Frankly, I’ve been looking for an opportunity to reiterate why Republicans could still have a pretty good midterm. They are, after all, reasonably clear favorites to flip the House, and a 30 percent chance to flip the Senate is nothing to sneeze at, either. That 30 percent chance is pretty much the same one our model gave to Donald Trump against Hillary Clinton on Election Day in 2016.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-still-do-not-show-a-gop-bounce-back/
Morning all.
Taylormade
“ Taylormade ” It won’t be easy under Albanese.
You can’t say you weren’t warned.”
The Libs underfunded Medicare for ten years. So now they are blame-shifting the consequences to Labor before Chalmers has had a chance to hand down his first budget?? Laughable.
I wonder how the Liberal vote will look after Labor had had 2 or 3 budgets to actually improve some of these Liberal-damaged national institutions?
Starlink able to operate in Iran now after internet sanctions lifted.
C@tmomma @ #1042 Saturday, September 24th, 2022 – 6:59 am
Ch9 news last night reported that Minns actually spent less than one minute inside the hospitals he’d visited to post on social media about hospital burnout (or whatever). Using CCTV footage from each hospital – obviously gotten from the hospitals, which means the government sanctioned their release.
My first thought was here comes the dirt from the government.
And the NSW Liberals wonder why their vote has tanked. New hospital projects without any staff funding for them is a gift to the construction sector, not the health sector. Its the stadium’s mentality all over again.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/09/24/exclusive-cabinet-documents-show-funding-new-hospital-staff-refused
Although I am a civil engineer, and new roads hospitals etc employs engineers in my industry, I urge Labor to be wary in prioritising funding for any new projects at present.
There is a shortage of engineers and construction workers now, not jobs. Funding new roads and stadiums that aren’t needed only diverts resources away from where they are needed. It only feeds building cost inflation.
Meanwhile we are not building enough houses, flood defences, renewable power (wind and solar farms), public transport, or warships. Funding for engineering and science at unis and building trades at TAFES needs a boost too. Fix the supply.
‘fess,
Maybe that’s because Minns spent a long time outside the hospitals talking to the striking, burnt-out nurses. 🙂
Chris Minns and his team are busy planning for Government, focusing on how they will repair the results of twelve years of negligence, incompetence and corruption. They don’t have time to follow their political opponents about the place with a stopwatch…
”
Ray (UK)says:
Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 12:27 am
Ven @ #1022 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 3:18 pm
”
Upnorthsays:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 9:09 pm
Ray (UK) says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 9:03 pm
Kwasi Kwarteng had delivered the Tories mini-budget
It’s being described as Reaganism, the biggest tax cuts since ’72 apparently
Lots for the millionaires and a bit of union-busting too
The markets didn’t like it, the headline on Bloomberg is ‘Truss’ economic plan sends markets into meltdown’
中华人民共和国
My Pommie mate who packed up sticks and moved back to London has decided to move back to Thailand. He reckons Pommie Land has gone rat shit.
”
Indeed Upnorth! Indeed. They have gone batshit crazy.
As A-E would like to say, oh the humanity. I wouldn’t have cared if not for my Son’s family living in England.
Where does your son live Ven?
”
Lives in Oxford and works in London.