Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 32, Greens 10 (open thread)

A dent to Labor’s still commanding lead from Resolve Strategic, as it and Essential Research disagree on the trajectory of Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings.

The Age/Herald has published the second of what hopefully looks like being a regular monthly federal polling series, showing Labor down three points on the primary vote 39%, the Coalition up four to 32%, the Greens down two to 10%, One Nation up one to 6% and the United Australia Party steady on 2%. Based on preferences from the May election, this suggests a Labor two-party lead of 57-43, in from 61-39 last time. Anthony Albanese’s combined good plus very good rating is up one to 62% and his poor plus very poor rating is up two to 24%. Peter Dutton is respectively down two to 28% and up three to 40%, and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-17 to 53-19.

The poll also finds 54-46 support for retaining the monarchy over becoming a republic in the event of a referendum, reversing a result from January. The late Queen’s “time as Australia’s head of state” was rated as good by 75% and poor by 5%, while David Hurley’s tenure as Governor-General was rated good by 30% and poor by 13%, with the remainder unsure or neutral. Forty-five per cent expect that King Charles III will perform well compared with 14% for badly. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1607.

Also out yesterday was the regular fortnightly release from Essential Research, which features the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, though still nothing on voting intention. Its new method for gauging leadership invites respondents introduced last month is to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten, categorising scores of seven to ten as positive, zero to three as negative and four to six as neutral. Contra Resolve Strategic, this has Albanese’s positive rating up three to 46%, his negative rating down six to 17% and his neutral rating up three to 31%. Dutton’s is down three on positive to 23%, steady on negative at 34% and up four on negative to 34%.

The poll also gauged support for a republic, and its specification of an “Australian head of state” elicited a more positive response than for Resolve Strategic or Roy Morgan, with support at 43% and opposition at 37%, although this is the narrowest result from the pollster out of seven going back to January 2017, with support down one since June and opposition up three. When asked if King Charles III should be Australia’s head of state, the sample came down exactly 50-50. The late Queen posthumously records a positive rating of 71% and a negative rating of 8% and Prince William comes in at 64% and 10%, but the King’s ratings of 44% and 21% are only slightly better than those of Prince Harry at 42% and 22%. The September 22 public holiday has the support of 61%, but 48% consider the media coverage excessive, compared with 42% for about right and 10% for insufficient. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1075.

The weekly Roy Morgan federal voting intention result, as related in threadbare form in its weekly update videos, gives Labor a lead of 54.5-45.5, out from 53.5-46.5 and the pollster’s strongest result for Labor since the election.

Finally, some resolution to recent by-election coverage:

• Saturday’s by-election for the Western Australian state seat of North West Central produced a comfortable win for Nationals candidate Merome Beard in the absence of a candidate from Labor, who polled 40.2% in the March 2021 landslide and fell 1.7% short after preferences. Beard leads Liberal candidate Will Baston with a 9.7% margin on the two-candidate preferred count, although the Nationals primary vote was scarcely changed despite the absence of Labor, while the Liberals were up from an abysmal 7.9% to 26.7%. The by-elections other remarkable feature was turnout – low in this electorate at the best of times, it currently stands at 42.2% of the enrolment with a mere 4490 formal votes cast, down from 73.8% and 7741 formal votes in 2021, with likely only a few hundred postals yet to come. Results have not been updated since Sunday, but continue to be tracked on my results page.

• A provisional distribution of preferences recorded Labor candidate Luke Edmunds winning the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke by a margin of 13.3%, out from 8.7% when the electorate last went to polls in May 2019. Labor’s primary vote was down from 45.2% to 39.5% in the face of competition from the Greens, who polled a solid 19.3% after declining to contest last time, while the Liberals were up to 28.8% from 25.3% last time, when a conservative independent polled 18.4%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,935 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 32, Greens 10 (open thread)”

Comments Page 20 of 39
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  1. Timothy Snyder

    1/6. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is also, in a sense, a Russian imperial war on its own non-Russian minorities.

    2/6. In the first offensive the soldiers sent to die were largely Asians.

    3/6. In the mobilisation the people forced to serve will also be largely Asians.

    4/6. And so Asian men from the Russian Federation go to die in a war whose only success for Putin is the mass deportation of Ukrainian women and children.

    5/6. The Ukrainian women and children are spread through Russia and expected to assimilate.

    6/6. Russia becomes “whiter,” which is something Putin cares about.

  2. Bonnie @ #941 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 6:24 pm

    Asha @ #932 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 6:01 pm

    Nothing wrong with engaging in some initial negotiations. Who knows, maybe Dutton has read the room and the opposition will be willing to wave through an acceptable model. But if, as I strongly suspect, the Liberals want to neuter it to save their own hides, the government would be fools to agree to any deals.

    Have you considered that there may be members of the current government worried about an overly expansive NACC as desired by many of the independents? Im not trying to make a false equivilency between the ALP and LNP, but there certainly isnt only clean skins in the current ALP, and as a party of power there’s always going to be some level of reluctance to be held truly accountable, especially when they’ve finally got the keys to the castle after so long and have so many good soldiers to reward.

    Anthony Albanese got rid of them before the election (federal intervention in the Victorian party), and he will not be afraid to do it now that he is in government.

  3. Vic,
    All of that assumes Putin will win. In fact, when he loses those same women and children will stream right on back to Ukraine.

  4. @catmomma
    Anthony Albanese got rid of them before the election (federal intervention in the Victorian party), and he will not be afraid to do it now that he is in government
    —–

    Truly clueless.

  5. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, September 23, 2022 at 7:10 pm

    nath @ #944 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 6:49 pm

    UpNorth, don’t worry about old Bert. He’s always angry. But I suspect his hostility towards you is due to your warm relations with C@t. He’s always fancied himself.

    Lol, nath.

    Anyway, I’ve had the best, I don’t need the rest.
    中华人民共和国
    I’m stealing that line! Ta C@t.

  6. So. The Greens who have corruptly been chanting ‘same old, same old’ for ten years are now demanding that Labor must not negotiate with the Coalition because the Coalition acts in bad faith and is too corrupt!

  7. I think it’s lovely you have hopes and aspirations for your family c@t. It’s a shame you are happy to commit others to your crusades in order to satisfy your partisan political narrative and war mongering. Sounds like someone you scream about so much.

  8. Mavis. You would hope so. But the thing we need to be careful about with a FICAC is that legitimate political discretion is regarded as corrupt. There is a reason why we have elected officials. I worry that a FICAC will not understand that and like ICAC over step. I wait with baited breath for the model.

    Sadly, despite the hopes and aspirations of some partisans, it’s likely to nab Labor at some point. I guess thats the point?

  9. NACC has to be able to inquire into the past. If Dutton says no, that should be the end of negotiations.

    How far back? As far as is relevant to good Government in the present day and in future. The standard followed by Abbott in his political Royal Commissions seems to have been about 20 years. In NSW the Coalition and their cheer squad won’t shut up about Obeid, who is in jail and who hasn’t been in Parliament for over a decade nor the Ministry for nearly two.

    I would suggest anything done in the last term of Government is relevant, maybe a little further based upon the merits of the case. In practical terms there would seem to be not much point going back further than about ten years unless there is reason to believe that the malfeasance is still happening or that its effects are still being strongly felt.

  10. Albanese has been getting some flak recently about the delays in introducing the FICAC legislation.
    Maybe the two week parliamentary hiatus was to enable the legislation writers to get their act together with a useful draft.

  11. Steve777 yeah it’s extraordinary the hard on the media (que sozzled Kate Mc) get about Eddie. Never mind the Liberal corruption found to exist it is all about Eddie and Labor.

    Arthur still the Ambassador to US.

  12. Labor will accept some amendments from the crossbench, the Greens and the LNP that do not compromise the overall shape of their legislation.

    They will then dare the other parties to vote against the overall bill.

    If none of them do vote against it, they’re all locked in.

    Any party or member who does vote against it will do themselves political damage given the wide support for the legislation in the community.

    What’s not to like?

  13. wranslide @ #954 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 7:12 pm

    @catmomma
    Anthony Albanese got rid of them before the election (federal intervention in the Victorian party), and he will not be afraid to do it now that he is in government
    —–

    Truly clueless.

    Lol, wranslide. Some numpty on a blog with tickets on himself says two words and, poof!, that makes it so and the rest of us should just stfu!?! You DO have a bad case of Trumpitis, wranslide. Been busy declassifying National Security documents today? 😆

    Okay, A_E Mini Me, piss, or get off the pot. Prove that the federal Labor government are interested in watering down the FICAC so that they can let corrupt Members of the federal Labor government get away with corruption.

    I’ll be over here waiting. 😐

  14. U.S. Supreme Court approval plummets to record lows as court expansion gains majority support

    https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/22/2124531/-U-S-Supreme-Court-approval-plummets-to-record-lows-as-Court-expansion-gains-majority-support

    Marquette finds that the Supreme Court’s approval has plummeted in the past two years from 66% approval in September 2020 to 40% this month. That means just 40% of adults approve of the job the U.S. Supreme Court is doing. That’s across the board—all ages and gender identifications disapprove of the court by large margins.

    It is brutal. But it also means that the majority of people believe the court needs to change. That includes a slight majority of 51% who support increasing the number of justices on the court

  15. The UN is a sick puppy.

    The human rights committee includes countries that have ghastly human rights records. It also contains the biggest emitter on the planet. It is corrupt.

  16. C@t. Stop making up your own narrative in order to try to make yourself feel better. I didn’t say that Federal Labor were trying to water down Federal ICAC.

    I was calling you clueless because of your refrain that by removing a particular element from Victorian Labor that Anthony had cleaned it out. The removal of Somyurek was a factional hit at the end of the day. Perhaps there was a side benefit associated with removing him and his friends but it was a political decision for political reasons. That’s politics.

  17. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, September 23, 2022 at 6:07 pm
    wranslide @ #894 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 4:31 pm

    DeeThanks Poroti. According to the freedom fighters in here Snowden should have taken his medicine and copped a malicious and inhuman prosecution for exposing a crime?
    Nevertheless, yes, Eddy should have stuck around, like a man, as Chelsea Manning did, and faced up to the crime he had committed, because he did commit a crime, despite whatever opinion you might have about the merits of his actions. However, if you want to join Team Trump, where some people are held accountable for their crimes and others are above the law, then that’s your call.

    Still, at the end of the day, Edward Snowden received a punishment worse than any he could have if he stuck around and faced the music. He has to live in Russia for the rest of his life.
    ___________________________________________________________
    I don’t think Edward Snowden should have demonstrated the courage of his convictions by “manning up” to a long jail sentence. I also don’t think Chelsea Manning served time out of choice; she was just unlucky enough to have been caught.
    It is galling that the only refuge Edward Snowden could run to was Putin’s Russia, but when you’re in a desperate situation you don’t always have the luxury of choosing your protectors. Vladimir Putin is obviously not concerned with protecting whistle-blowers; he only wants to put it up the United States.
    But none of that should detract from what Snowden did. Hopefully America itself will one day recognise this and give the man a deserved amnesty.

  18. Ven, the pertinent point is that the US Supreme Court, as currently comprised, couldn’t give tinker’s damn – they’re there until they die.

  19. Sir Henry Parkes,
    I agree. However, Chelsea Manning stuck around. Edward Snowden didn’t. And I reiterate, my opinion is around that issue only, not wrt the merits of the actions of Edward Snowden. I just don’t think anyone should be above the law or place themselves out of the reach of the law. Because then you get Donald Trump. It’s the principle of the thing.

    And yes, he would have deserved an Amnesty, like Chelsea Manning. If only he had stuck around.

  20. C@tmomma @ #976 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 8:13 pm

    I just don’t think anyone should be above the law or place themselves out of the reach of the law. Because then you get Donald Trump. It’s the principle of the thing.

    It’s not that, it’s more like clean-hands doctrine. The US isn’t entitled to a case against Snowden, because Snowden’s only crime was exposing the US committing crimes and violating due-process protections. There’s no innocent party, so no entitlement for judicial action/remedy.

    Doesn’t get you to Trump, unless Trump can establish that NARA, like…maliciously classified arbitrary nonsense and left it laying around knowing he’d be unable to resist carting it off to Mar-a-lago, or something. Or maybe that the classified items he took contain evidence of crimes, which he intended to bring to light so that justice could be served and just…never got around to actually doing that. Because hijacking an election via fraud takes a lot of time and focus and would distract even the most well-intentioned whistleblower.

  21. Surprised Optus hasnt got saint Gladys ain’t defending it for that scandalous data breach.

    Chris Uhlmann to soon post it was China.

  22. https://youtu.be/3eNNS6z8tAA
    friendlyjordies goes to court

    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/clubsnsws-private-criminal-prosecution-against-friendlyjordies,16746

    This is a most unusual process. This is not the court itself or the state prosecutor charging Troy and Jordan with contempt, its ClubsNSW, a private entity, which is bringing this action.

    They effectively become the prosecutor in a criminal prosecution.

    ClubsNSW also took out an ex parte order to have their court action against Stolz and Friendlyjordies suppressed without opposing lawyers even being present or being made aware of the move. An interim order was granted in July.

  23. For those discussing the potential threat of the Russian mobilisation former US Army cmdr Gen Mark Hertling has an interesting Twitter thread:

    Mark Hertling
    @MarkHertling
    Putin’s announced mobilization of 300,000 “reservists” was jaw-dropping to me this morning, but not for the reason some might suspect.

    Why? Because know how Russian soldiers are trained, in basic training & in their units.

    Russian soldiers got just a few days of basic training before being sent to Belarus starting last November (pre-invasion).

    Officers admitted to me that theirs was a “one year” force, with some – the poorest – volunteering or being elected for leadership roles.

    Remember, RU soldiers get almost ALL training in units vs at basic. How units are resourced play a big part.

    During 2 visits to RU, I saw basic & unit training. It was awful.

    The issue is the Russian army is poorly led & poorly trained. That starts in basic training, and doesn’t get better during the RU soldier’s time in uniform.

  24. Kwasi Kwarteng had delivered the Tories mini-budget

    It’s being described as Reaganism, the biggest tax cuts since ’72 apparently

    Lots for the millionaires and a bit of union-busting too

    The markets didn’t like it, the headline on Bloomberg is ‘Truss’ economic plan sends markets into meltdown’

  25. a r,
    That wasn’t Snowden’s crime, which you probably know, it was the theft of the data outlining the things you stated. Of course, looked at passionately the cause was just and the crime should be absolved as a result. However, I contend that Snowden, as with Chelsea Manning, could have benefited from being a cause celebre within the US and been allowed out of jail after a public pressure campaign. That way, the theft is prosecuted, the message remains, that no one is above the law.

    I mean, as time went by, America didn’t fall as a result of the data he stole and so there probably would have been a good case for clemency.

  26. Ray (UK) says:
    Friday, September 23, 2022 at 9:03 pm
    Kwasi Kwarteng had delivered the Tories mini-budget

    It’s being described as Reaganism, the biggest tax cuts since ’72 apparently

    Lots for the millionaires and a bit of union-busting too

    The markets didn’t like it, the headline on Bloomberg is ‘Truss’ economic plan sends markets into meltdown’
    中华人民共和国
    My Pommie mate who packed up sticks and moved back to London has decided to move back to Thailand. He reckons Pommie Land has gone rat shit.

    Tories obviously playing to the base trying to shore up seats.

  27. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Friday, September 23, 2022 at 3:49 pm

    I have no particular agenda in mind, though you seem to think I must have. To my mind the monarchy is technically a dead letter in all but one respect. But it’s a predicate on which the system is built, and is a source of legitimacy. This is valuable in itself.

    The unwritten, opaque powers of the Head of State have been invoked just once since Federation: in 1975. This occurred because the Reactionaries took advantage of the pre-eminence of the Senate. This is a serious defect in the machinery: more serious than who gets to play make-believe and wear fancy dress.

    To reiterate my main point: the problem with Heads-of-State is not only in their appointment. It is in securing their dismissal and replacement. They cannot have tenure. End of story. Their writ should be only as good as the PM of the day may allow, which is to say, only as good as the House decides.

  28. Thanks for the post Late Riser. I genuinely hope that the Clubs are investigated. The casino inquiries have shown exactly what has been happening there. Sadly there will be no prosecutions. But if we can shine a light on the pubs and clubs and the absolutely insidious harm that poker machines are doing then it would be a start. I suspect nothing will happen and more will continue to be lost (including lives) in the dim VIP rooms around the state.

  29. Annual inflation

    Turkey: 80%
    Argentina: 78%
    Iran: 52%
    Pakistan: 27%
    Nigeria: 20.5%
    Russia: 14.3%
    UK: 9.9%
    Eurozone: 9.1%
    Mexico: 8.7%
    Italy: 8.4%
    US: 8.3%
    Germany: 7.9%
    Canada: 7%
    India: 7%
    Australia: 6.1%
    France: 5.9%
    Indonesia: 4.6%
    Japan: 3%
    Saudi Arabia: 2.5%
    China: 2.5%

  30. Upnorth:

    Friday, September 23, 2022 at 9:09 pm

    [‘Tories obviously playing to the base trying to shore up seats.’]

    Prima facie the Tories seem to be engaging in politics – most curious for a political party. I’m off.

  31. The British government unveiled the biggest tax cuts since the early 1970s in a bold bet to jolt the U.K.’s inflation-stricken economy into growth, prompting a slide in the pound, the stock market and a jump in government bond yields.

    Sterling slumped 2pc against the dollar to just above $1.10, the weakest since 1985 and threatening its lowest on record. It’s on track for its biggest daily loss since May.

    Meanwhile, the FTSE 100 also tumbled 2pc as this morning’s mini-Budget spooked markets. The domestically-focused FTSE 250 is trading at its lowest since November 2020.

  32. Mavis says:
    Friday, September 23, 2022 at 9:21 pm
    Upnorth:

    Friday, September 23, 2022 at 9:09 pm

    [‘Tories obviously playing to the base trying to shore up seats.’]

    Prima facie the Tories seem to be engaging in politics – most curious for a political party. I’m off.
    中华人民共和国
    True old mate. True. The “Red Wall” though will hopefully not be impressed.

  33. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, September 23, 2022 at 8:13 pm
    Sir Henry Parkes,
    I agree. However, Chelsea Manning stuck around. Edward Snowden didn’t. And I reiterate, my opinion is around that issue only, not wrt the merits of the actions of Edward Snowden. I just don’t think anyone should be above the law or place themselves out of the reach of the law. Because then you get Donald Trump. It’s the principle of the thing.

    And yes, he would have deserved an Amnesty, like Chelsea Manning. If only he had stuck around.
    _________________________________________________________
    I don’t know whether Snowden would have got amnesty, if he had only stuck around. He could get amnesty now, if President Biden so decided. As for placing oneself above the law, I think it is a case of someone deciding that the law has to be broken in order for the truth to be told. The case of Israeli nuclear whistle-blower Mordechai Vanunu is another one that comes to mind.
    If someone in their position has the courage to become an outcast and risk arrest for telling the truth, I don’t think they should be expected to put their liberty on the line out of some abstract respect for the law.
    I also don’t think we should entertain slippery slope arguments; that because a law is broken in one place it makes way for rogues like Donald Trump in another. The Trumps of this world are out for themselves and will not care one way or the other about the Edward Snowdens, Chelsea Mannings or Julian Assanges.

  34. wranslidesays:
    Friday, September 23, 2022 at 7:33 pm

    Mavis. You would hope so. But the thing we need to be careful about with a FICAC is that legitimate political discretion is regarded as corrupt. …

    How would you describe, “legitimate political discretion”?

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