The Australian reports the second Newspoll since the election has produced an even weaker result for the Coalition than the first four weeks ago, with Labor’s two-party lead out from 56-44 to 57-43. Labor’s primary vote is steady at 37%, with the Coalition down two to 31% – their equal worst result in Newspoll history, matching the third poll under the Rudd government in February-March 2008 – with the Greens up one to 13%, One Nation up one to 7% (their strongest result in three years) and the United Australia Party steady on 2%.
Anthony Albanese is steady on 61% approval and up three on disapproval to 29%, while Peter Dutton is down two on approval to 35% and up two on disapproval to 43%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 59-25 to 61-22. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1505.
lol C@t
“ Ten people have been killed and at least 15 others injured in a series of stabbings in Saskatchewan province in Canada. Police are hunting two suspects, named as Damien Sanderson and Myles Sanderson, travelling in a black Nissan Rogue.”
Yikes, that’s terrible!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-05/canada-stabbings-10-killed/101405142
Thanks BK.
This looks like a sensible discussion of the S3 tax cuts, with fairly simple/saleable proposals for amendment (unlikemuchoftherecentdiscussionhere)…
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/redesign-stage-3-tax-cuts-to-better-balance-equity-and-efficiency-20220904-p5bf7v.html
Meanwhile, yet another “test for Labor/Albo/the government…!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-integrity-pocock-attacks-labor-s-climate-bill-ahead-of-senate-debate-20220904-p5bf90.html
…and I’m going to classify this one as a “back-handed ‘test for Labor/Albo/the government’: mixing some posititives about the first 100 days with an ominous ‘Albo will need to be economically bold’ warning. Duh-duh-DAH!…
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-warms-to-the-top-job-but-has-he-the-skills-to-deliver-20220904-p5bf7t.html
Re the last article: a balanced piece would not simply briefly mention the glossing over of serious matters by the previous government, but spend a couple of paragraphs on them. If you’re going to warn Albo, excoriating Scomo!
Is “economically bold” the same as “courageous”?
Snappy Tom,
I wondered whether Sean Kelly is overcompensating somewhat for his previous positions with the former federal Labor government in his column today?
Yes, that’s more like it. Amend the Stage 3 tax cuts, don’t scrap them.
Max Fisher on How Silicon Valley Has Rewired Our Brains | Offline Podcast:
https://youtu.be/bI9HpIDeODA
All the wailing and gnashing of dentures over the S3 cut hasn’t made much impact on the governments popularity (muses to self)
C@tmomma says:
Monday, September 5, 2022 at 9:10 am
Yes, that’s more like it. Amend the Stage 3 tax cuts, don’t scrap them.
_______
that’s what everyone who has been critical has been saying all along.
PageBoi says:
Monday, September 5, 2022 at 8:19 am
@cronus
“I don’t think it’s hyperbole at all, they’re referring to a cohort of recent borrowers who thanks to recent rate rises and inflation are now over leveraged and thanks to reduced borrowing capacity are not able to refinance their loans to try and get a better deal. There will be a number of people who took out mortgages with fixed terms for the first few years who find themselves in that boat and about to get walloped when the fixed rate honeymoon period expires and they get a huge whack of rate rises all at once”
Every mortgage is a burden but the term “mortgage prisoners” is clickbait terminology and readers deserve better than permanent fear campaigns imo.
No point in Leak trying to paint Biden as a divider, if that’s the case he’s a Johnny-come-lately.
BK @ #83 Monday, September 5th, 2022 – 7:36 am
BK – noticed my retailers prices (for all ToU rates – supply rate unchanged) have gone up 40% even tho SA has 50% renewables. Either there is some profit taking by the retailer or gas prices have gone bonkers causing wholesale price pressures on the retailer. Or both.
UK Cartoons:
‘Isn’t it exciting? The Conservatives have gone into labour, but we won’t know if it’s a boy or a girl till tomorrow.’
nathsays:
Monday, September 5, 2022 at 9:15 am
Not really, the main argument has been their supposed unaffordablity.
I’ve raised the idea of redesigning then whilst maintaining the quantum of the cut before and it got zero feedback.
The tragic events in Canada are incomprehensible.
Guy’s Liberals dig up a right-wing culture wars perennial for the election – change the Victorian school curriculum.
Comments on the article are scathing. They point out what Kennett did in the past and what the Liberals really think about (proper) science.
Barney in Cherating says:
Monday, September 5, 2022 at 9:28 am
nathsays:
Monday, September 5, 2022 at 9:15 am
C@tmomma says:
Monday, September 5, 2022 at 9:10 am
Yes, that’s more like it. Amend the Stage 3 tax cuts, don’t scrap them.
_______
that’s what everyone who has been critical has been saying all along.
Not really, the main argument has been their supposed unaffordablity.
I’ve raised the idea of redesigning then whilst maintaining the quantum of the cut before and it got zero feedback.
____________
Bullshit. I’ve suggested several amendments, so have others, even AE.
Even those who simply say ‘scrap them’, what they mean is scrap the regressive nature of S3. Which is what an amendment can do.
Not that it is my position exactly. I think it should be amended but reduce the overall tax cut. Just remove the regressive nature of it. I wouldn’t mind if they scrapped it entirely, but a good amendment is better than the current settings.
Thanks BK, these 3 struck thoughts.
Trusting your summary, I told youse that Coalition supporters must be tearing their hair out.
It seems obvious, but I wish it were more appreciated.
This one struck deepest.
Ex POTUS Trump, was never into law and order, ever. Look at his disregard for legal matters before he became POTUS. His world is the world of the con. Legalities are nuisances, some larger than others. Politics comes naturally to a con, and Trump is a supreme trickster. So his current troubles are just another battle to him and he’ll respond as he always has, with a con, with politics.
The problem for the USA is that Trump’s con strikes at the foundations of the society, at its trust in the apparatus of justice. And Trump won’t suddenly stop. He literally can’t. It’s instinctive. There is no reason there for him to see. In his universe it simply doesn’t exist.
The organisations charged with criminal investigation and the court system must realise that Trump is no ordinary criminal, simply operating outside the law, doing his best to avoid its consequences. He is attacking them because they are attacking him. And he’s not alone. Others have cottoned on to the tactic.
Biden’s speech last week was many things, but it was also a defence of the apparatus of justice. It was needed. I hope the J6C get cracking again real soon.
EDIT: “but it was also”
Seems to be an odd process for the UK to have their next Prime Minister chosen by a tiny cohort of citizens, members of the ruling party, probably skewing strongly older, who likely reflect the UK equivalent of Alan Jones / talkback listeners and Sky After Dark fans.
That being said, our two big parties have adopted a similar process to replace a Prime Minister between elections should it become necessary.
Oops. In my previous post, “but is was also” should be “but it was also”.
”Albanese and Chalmers still have three budgets to redesign stage three. They certainly can. And I suspect they will.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/redesign-stage-3-tax-cuts-to-better-balance-equity-and-efficiency-20220904-p5bf7v.html
(Article linked by BK in Dawn Patrol)
Steven Hamilton, assistant professor of economics at George Washington University in Washington DC, presents what looks like a reasonable plan to deliver Stage 3 while addressing inequities / inefficiencies.
Late Riser
It seems Trump is in the habit of gaslighting the innocent or those who maintain law and order. He is a clear and present danger to America’s democracy and by extension, world peace (such as it is).
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/09/04/newspoll-57-43-to-labor-open-thread/comment-page-2/#comment-3975015
Sounds like across the ditch is more social, and less liberal, democratic than Australia.
Geetroit says:
Monday, September 5, 2022 at 7:51 am
I miss Freya Stark.
中华人民共和国
The good folk at Bobawobba are still waiting for her visit. BTW haven’t seen Lars and his venom for some time.
The problem for the USA is that Trump’s con strikes at the foundations of the society, at its trust in the apparatus of justice. And Trump won’t suddenly stop. He literally can’t. It’s instinctive. There is no reason there for him to see. In his universe it simply doesn’t exist.
I strongly advise you to listen to the conversation between Jon Favreau and Max Fisher then. They analyse the popularity of Trump, and why, in exquisite detail.
I think that Lars was expelled.
No loss.
Steve777 says:
Monday, September 5, 2022 at 10:21 am
I think that Lars was expelled.
中华人民共和国
Ohhhhh – thanks Stevo – I had not heard. Explains Naths’ crankiness as of late (or his team is losing).
”
Unions are again playing a central role in corridors of power writes Ross Gittins who says that the Libs didn’t know the union bosses and didn’t want to know them. They were the enemy – always had been, always would be. Big business bosses, on the other hand, would be privately consulted and were always welcome to phone up for a quiet word with the minister.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/unions-again-play-a-central-role-in-corridors-of-power-20220904-p5bf8g.html
”
It did not feel like this in 2007 when Rudd Labor won the election although Union movement played a very important role in defeating the Howard government by targeting Howard overreaching Industrial relations Bill, which completely gutted the low paid workers.
Since the Labor government came to power after 11 years of the most idealogical government this country has seen, Rudd was trying to satisfy the so-called ‘Howard battlers’, by not dismantling the Industrial relations system even though he had a deputy leader in Gillard, who wanted to dismantle it. It always felt like that he was trying to satisfy the various business groups and Murdoch Press more than the unions.
Also, the relatively high income earners and real high income earners were still solidly with Liberal party after 2007 LNP defeat.
Although the Union movement is decimated now and big Business is on the ascendency, certain things are different
1. The relatively high income earners and real high income earners have moved away from Liberal party and Liberal party is showing no signs of getting them back in near future.
2. A lot of people no longer trust Murdoch Press anymore.
3. The small business owners realised that bargaining system is broken. What was designed 40 years ago is no longer relevant. They never liked Award wage system and hence remained hostile to ALP even though enterprise bargaining system was implemented.
4. Because of unforseen Pandemic, Australian businesses came to realise that they are desperately reliant on temporary migrant workers, who no longer are available.
5. Although Albanese is acting like a centrist, his heart is still from Labor left. And unlike Whitlam, Hawke, Keating, Rudd and Gillard, (Beazley), who came from middle class, he came from poor background. So he understands the needs and difficulties of poor and underprivileged like one other democratic leader. (Can anyone name that democratic leader?)
So he will listen to the Union concerns and businesses know that.
Hence z they came to the negotiating table for the time being as long as ALP is in ascendency.
Hard to analyse the popularity of someone who isn’t popular and never has been. Trump has the mindless, undying support of ~40% of likely voters, and has never had much more (or less) than that. In a sport where winning is (notionally) 50% plus one, 40% is nowhere near “popular”.
If Trump’s popular, Biden (+7M votes over Trump in 2020) is a fucking rockstar. 😆
I can confidently predict the following:
1. There will be ‘stage 3 tax cuts’ commencing on 1 July 2024
2. They will be substantially rejigged to benefit the median and average taxable income earner, while withdrawing the promised benefits from high taxable income earners.
Reasons:
1. The typical voter hears only the words ‘tax cuts’ when the invested are talking endlessly about stage 3 tax cuts. The current debate, while very loud, is actually only heard by those politically or economically tuned in (which a lifetime of watching politics tells me is a relatively small and already committed part of the voting public).
2. The more the words ‘stage 3 tax cuts’ fill the media the greater the expectation that there will be tax cuts and the greater the risk to the Government to not meet these expectations (even if hardly anyone actually knows what the tax cuts contain).
3. Therefore the Government has to deliver tax cuts. They are not only expected, but needed to counter the bracket creep of high inflation.
4. Further, if the government were to abandon these tax cuts, it would be in a world of political grief, with the left demanding the proceeds be spent on public goods (like social welfare, education and health) while the right demands the money go into ‘budget repair’. Neither of which would provide an immediate benefit to the ‘long-suffering’ taxpayer.
5. Also, the Opposition would get enormous free mileage by attacking the Government for breaking a promise. Again, even though median and average income earners would actually get f-all from the cuts as currently structured.
6. On the other hand, rejigging the tax cuts to where the bulk of swinging voters are will provide a political sugar hit for the government in the year preceding the next election. It could not be attacked by the opposition as a breach of a promise when the voters will actually get tax cuts. A Coalition which deals with simplistic messages to appeal to voters would have a hell of time trying to explain to voters getting tax cuts why these are not the ‘Stage 3 tax cuts’. Especially when the voters are actually getting more than the Coalition wanted to give them!
Providing the Stage 3 tax cuts in a rejigged form is both essential politically and, actually, advantageous to the government. It should ensure they win the next election.
Ven
Solid analysis imo.
I also think that Albo is a vastly different person to Rudd, much less of an egotist, genuinely empathetic and decent, largely transparent, collaborative, has the strong backing of a very large proportion of the party and he’s less politically expedient (he wouldn’t give up on CC in the way Rudd did despite knowing that it was the greatest moral challenge of out time).
a r @ #132 Monday, September 5th, 2022 – 10:32 am
Okay, okay .. the popularity of Trump’s speaking style. 😆
Q: noticed my retailers prices have gone up 40% even tho SA has 50% renewables
Prices for everything on Earth reflect what the market will bear.
They dont reflect the production cost.
Good news on multiple fronts today. Labor are slowly crab walking away from the regressive stage 3 tax cuts (they may call it minor “amendments” or “adjustments”, but that’s ok), and David Pocock has put up some sensible amendments to Labor’s woefully inadequate climate change policies, which Labor will accept if they are serious about climate change.
It still remains to wean Labor off the fossil fuel teat, but it’s a start.
Steve777says:
Monday, September 5, 2022 at 9:51 am
It’s not really odd at all.
The thing here is that members are not voting for the PM, they are voting for the Parliamentary leader of the Conservative Party.
It’s only due to the fact that the Conservatives have the numbers in the House that that chosen leader will then become Prime Minister.
Player One says:
Monday, September 5, 2022 at 10:59 am
Good news on multiple fronts today. Labor are slowly crab walking away from the regressive stage 3 tax cuts (they may call it minor “amendments” or “adjustments”, but that’s ok), and David Pocock has put up some sensible amendments to Labor’s woefully inadequate climate change policies, which Labor will accept if they are serious about climate change.
It still remains to wean Labor off the fossil fuel teat, but it’s a start.
中华人民共和国
Still remains to be seen how P1 plans to heat, feed, water, sanitate, cloth and medicate billions of people with her wish to close all Coal Mining immediately.
torchbearer @ #135 Monday, September 5th, 2022 – 10:22 am
Sure, I get production costs are only a small part of the cost structure of a retailer.
But 40% is a big increase. You suggest the price is whatever a market can bear – which is a long way from the “competitive market place” theory we are all force fed. Seems all the pressures on prices are in the upward direction with no downward pressure from competition – either at production or retail or all and everything in between.
Is the market utterly compromised?
These sorts of increases wont hurt people too much if they are lucky enough to be able to afford a lot of solar panels and batteries. They wont hurt the very wealthy. But they will hurt those less well off and businesses reliant on large amounts of energy. And this will flow through to other non-discretionary items like food.
A market that increases prices on non-discretionary products/services by 40% is a market asking to be nationalised.
Upnorth @ #139 Monday, September 5th, 2022 – 11:06 am
Player One needs to get the mote out of their own eye in order to see things more clearly.
Don’t hold your breath.
I guess that retailers are probably trying to pay off losses from the previous 6 months of gas price increases while their customers were still on lower rates. But that means they are assuming their cost pressures will continue for the next 12months.
It will be interesting to see if any retailers take quick advantage of any cost reductions over the next year to entice new customers to switch.
Upnorth says:
Monday, September 5, 2022 at 11:06 am
Still remains to be seen how P1 plans to heat, feed, water, sanitate, cloth and medicate billions of people with her wish to close all Coal Mining immediately.
___________________________________________
Unlike the filthy rich fossil fuel industries, these salt of the earth people won’t mind if they know it will contribute to reducing the impact of climate change.
TPOF says:
Monday, September 5, 2022 at 11:12 am
Upnorth says:
Monday, September 5, 2022 at 11:06 am
Still remains to be seen how P1 plans to heat, feed, water, sanitate, cloth and medicate billions of people with her wish to close all Coal Mining immediately.
___________________________________________
Unlike the filthy rich fossil fuel industries, these salt of the earth people won’t mind if they know it will contribute to reducing the impact of climate change.
中华人民共和国
Yes cobber they and their children will die happily knowing they did their bit.
“Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori”
Simon Katich says:
Monday, September 5, 2022 at 11:11 am
I guess that retailers are probably trying to pay off losses from the previous 6 months of gas price increases while their customers were still on lower rates. But that means they are assuming their cost pressures will continue for the next 12months.
It will be interesting to see if any retailers take quick advantage of any cost reductions over the next year to entice new customers to switch.
中华人民共和国
The good news for renewables is that steel prices have come off the boil as the Chinese economy goes from bad to worse so infrastucture costs should drop somewhat. Bad news is Gas is up 2% already this morning and that’s before US and European markets open. Russia announced its’ Gas “maintainence issues” after the European TTF Gas market closed Friday afternoon. Bound to see a bounce when markets open tonight.
“ Last month, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton urged Dr Chalmers to consider delaying reversing the excise cut so as not to “compound the pressure on household budgets. It is understood, however, the opposition will support the restoration of full excise to 46 cents per litre on the basis the world oil price is lower now than in March when the cut was made.”
Isn’t that what they call an each-way bet?
Paywalled https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/petrol-rates-and-pensions-to-rise-as-cost-of-living-bites-20220904-p5bf9m
Upnorth @ #138 Monday, September 5th, 2022 – 11:06 am
The same magical mechanism that makes it possible to “close all Coal Mining immediately”* will also simultaneously and immediately provide those people with sustainably powered, battery-backed distributed microgrids. If you’re going to invoke magic on one side to imagine the consequences, it can be invoked on the other to fix them.
Nobody has suggested that fossil fuels stop and be replaced with literally nothing. The transition to clean energy is just that; a transition. Fossil-fuel extraction and usage ramps down, while cleaner alternatives ramp up.
But if you want to ask disingenuous and unfair questions, how do you plan to revive the 1300 men, women, and children killed in Pakistan’s climate-change-fuelled floods? And the thousands and tens of thousands more who will die in similar incidents over the coming years? And the millions of climate refugees created at the same time?
You don’t. You’re happy to keep burning even though it makes all of those situations even worse. Your compassion isn’t.
*These appear to be your words more than P1’s.
”
Cronussays:
Monday, September 5, 2022 at 10:46 am
Ven
Solid analysis imo.
I also think that Albo is a vastly different person to Rudd, much less of an egotist, genuinely empathetic and decent, largely transparent, collaborative, has the strong backing of a very large proportion of the party and he’s less politically expedient (he wouldn’t give up on CC in the way Rudd did despite knowing that it was the greatest moral challenge of out time).
”
Thanks Cronus for your appreciation.
There is another thing I did not convey in my @10:29 am post.
ALP never won federally atleast after WW2 with a leader, who had Cabinet Minister experience in previous ALP government, till Albanese won from opposition.
(Paul Keating in Hawke government and Simon Crean in Rudd- Gillard government don’t count because they were not the leaders who won from opposition.)
Whereas LNP always had leaders, who had Cabinet Minister experience, when they lead LNP from opposition, whether it was Menzies, Fraser, Howard and Abbott.
I don’t whether Cabinet Minister experience in previous government played in the longevity of LNP leaders but the proof is in the pudding as they say.
Out of the 77 years after WW2 ALP was in power for only 26 out of 77 years i.e. LNP was in power for 2/3 of the time and lead by leaders from opposition to government, who had Cabinet Minister experience earlier.
Another thing is Albanese proved himself as competent Minister in previous government ministry.
Ven,
Is the answer to your question about national leaders who have also risen from poverty, Narendra Modi?
Now, here’s a question for you. Why has India agreed to join in military exercises with Russia and China?
This is a fascinating story:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/04/us/politics/russia-missiles-ukraine.html
Kyrgios doing OK. 5-2 up in the third at a set a piece. Doing some dumb things tho.