Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor (open thread)

Labor maintains its Newspoll dominance, with the Coalition primary vote and Peter Dutton’s personal ratings both heading in the wrong direction.

The Australian reports the second Newspoll since the election has produced an even weaker result for the Coalition than the first four weeks ago, with Labor’s two-party lead out from 56-44 to 57-43. Labor’s primary vote is steady at 37%, with the Coalition down two to 31% – their equal worst result in Newspoll history, matching the third poll under the Rudd government in February-March 2008 – with the Greens up one to 13%, One Nation up one to 7% (their strongest result in three years) and the United Australia Party steady on 2%.

Anthony Albanese is steady on 61% approval and up three on disapproval to 29%, while Peter Dutton is down two on approval to 35% and up two on disapproval to 43%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 59-25 to 61-22. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1505.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

723 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Anthony Albanese is steady on 61% approval and up three on disapproval to 29%, while Peter Dutton is down two on approval to 35% and up two on disapproval to 43%.

    He’s largely been MIA since the election. What will it be once he starts being seen by people?

  2. It looks like the NSW Liberals have been told to try and take some paint off the federal government:

    The NSW government has sought advice on whether Burke’s letter constituted “improper influence” over the commission and breached a section of the Fair Work Act.

    “Not only is it a breach of the principle of separation of powers, but the legislation hasn’t even gone through the parliament that he’s foreshadowing. It’s very arrogant,” Elliott told the Herald on Sunday.

    “They haven’t even turned the lights off the job summit and [Burke] is doing the bidding of the union. I don’t think that any commissioner, or a judge, is going to appreciate being used in this manner.”

    NSW Workplace Relations Minister Damien Tudehope described the letter as a “brazen intervention” by the Albanese government and said he was seeking advice on whether it had breached the Fair Work Act.

    “It’s a pretty serious problem if in fact a minister is writing to the Fair Work Commission in circumstances where it amounts to improper interference,” he said.

    “This sends a clear message to Alex Claassens [NSW Rail Tram and Bus Union boss] and the rail unions – keep up the strikes, Labor has your back.”

    As the dispute between the Perrottet government and rail unions escalated last week, Burke wrote to the Fair Work Commission flagging legislative reform to limit employers’ ability to terminate enterprise agreements.

    Burke told the commission he held concerns that it was being used as a bargaining tactic and said he was conscious of a potential rush by employers to rip up collective deals ahead of his government moving to crack down on the practice.

    The letter was sent less than 24 hours after Tudehope warned that the state government was willing to terminate the combined rail unions’ existing enterprise agreement unless workers agreed to a new pay deal.

    However, Burke said his letter was not targeted at any current industrial dispute.

    “There are a large number of issues relevant to the Fair Work Commission that were outcomes of the Jobs and Skills Summit,” Burke said.

    “Of course I notified the Commission of those outcomes – it would have been irresponsible to do anything less. I made no reference in that letter to any particular dispute.”

    Burke said he had publicly stated last month that it was unreasonable to threaten significant cuts to people’s pay by cancelling agreements in any pay negotiation.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/arrogant-nsw-transport-minister-lashes-feds-amid-rail-dispute-20220904-p5bfa9.html

  3. Another legacy of the Coalition government. There are so many things Labor has inherited that need to be fixed.

    In a close examination of FOI decisions and appeals, the study found many valid claims were being denied or delayed when they could have succeeded with faster access to an appeal to the Administrative Appeals Tribunal.

    A key factor, the researchers found, was that the first step in an appeal against a government department was to the Office of the Australian Information Commissioner, an agency that does not have enough staff to decide matters quickly and slows the process of taking the case to the AAT.

    Former Commonwealth ombudsman John McMillan warned in 2019 the government’s approach to FOI was undermining transparency and breaching the spirit of federal law, but decisions have become slower in recent years.

    While the media uses FOI law to seek policy documents, most applications are from individuals and 77 per cent of all requests last year were for personal information. The majority of requests each year go to the Department of Home Affairs and Services Australia regarding decisions that have an impact on individuals.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/transparency-has-been-killed-by-obstruction-as-officials-flout-foi-rules-20220904-p5bf7r.html

  4. Some parts of the Australian Defence Manufacturing Industry are going gung ho and Ukraine has noticed:

    Ukraine has launched a bold bid for its army to be used as a “guinea pig” for cutting-edge Australian military technology as it seeks to gain a crucial battlefield advantage over Vladimir Putin’s Russian forces.

    With the war raging past its sixth month, Ukraine’s Ambassador to Australia, Vasyl Myroshnychenko, is lobbying the Albanese government to send a fleet of 30 newly built light armoured vehicles, known as Hawkeis, to the war zone.

    The patrol vehicles – which owe their name to late prime minister Bob Hawke – have been designed and manufactured specially for the Australian Defence Force at defence contractor Thales’ facility in Bendigo, Victoria.

    After experiencing technical problems during the construction phase, the four-wheel drive vehicles are not expected to reach full operational capability until next year.

    Although they are untested on the battlefield, Myroshnychenko said a fleet of Hawkeis would make a valuable contribution to the war effort on top of the 60 Bushmaster vehicles Australia has already committed to Ukraine.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ukraine-s-pitch-to-australia-use-our-army-as-your-guinea-pig-20220904-p5bf7l.html

  5. Good news for Ukraine – Germany is finally “all in” on support. Recognising the Russian gas threat for what it is, Scholz has passed a package of financial assistance to people to cope with high gas prices, and prepare for a tough winter. This neuters Russian closing of Nordstream.

    Meanwhile there will now be more German weapons delivered to Ukraine.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/04/ukraine-pm-thanks-germany-solidarity-calls-more-weapons

  6. Soc,
    Look at the graph I put up. Numbers of cases are almost back to pre-pandemic levels in the random sample of people who contribute to the weekly flu tracking survey. And it’s only called Flu Tracking because it started before COVID-19.Now, though, it incorporates COVID-19 monitoring. It’s not as scientific as the numbers collected by the Depts of Health but it’s not nothing. I’d say that vaccination is having its desired effect. And yes, masks give you pretty much 100% protection but I believe that now it should be a personal choice.

  7. Confessions
    “ While the media uses FOI law to seek policy documents, most applications are from individuals and 77 per cent of all requests last year were for personal information. ”

    You have to wobder how much of LNP FOI policy related to hindering fights against Robodebt and denied visas. Covering for failed ministers was a bonus.


  8. The Hawkei has significant advantages over other vehicles, including the fact it can be transported by helicopter directly to the battlefield. CREDIT:DEPARTMENT OF DEFENCE

    The Australian government is spending $1.3 billion on a fleet of 1100 Hawkeis to replace most of the army’s fleet of blast-protected Land Rovers. The last of the vehicles rolled off the production line at Bendigo last month.

    The vehicles, which can carry up to six soldiers, have removable armour and optional mounts for weapons including automatic grenade launchers.

  9. Socrates @ #60 Monday, September 5th, 2022 – 6:23 am

    Confessions
    “ While the media uses FOI law to seek policy documents, most applications are from individuals and 77 per cent of all requests last year were for personal information. ”

    You have to wobder how much of LNP FOI policy related to hindering fights against Robodebt and denied visas. Covering for failed ministers was a bonus.

    Yes, that’s a good point.

  10. David Pocock’s gambit to get his vote for the Climate Change Bill:

    The bill seeks to create a legally binding national target for the first time in Australia to cut greenhouse emissions by 43 per cent by 2030, but Pocock and Tasmanian senator Jacqui Lambie are pushing for stronger transparency measures.

    .. Labor’s proposed legislation requires government agency the Climate Change Authority (CCA) to advise the climate change minister on “greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets to be included in a new or adjusted nationally determined contribution” and for an annual climate statement to be made to parliament.

    Pocock’s amendments would enhance the role of the CCA by requiring it to publish the advice it provides to the minister, including any recommendations to boost the national emissions-reduction target, and an explanation for how it had addressed the latest scientific advice on climate targets.

    The push for greater detail and transparency on the government’s actions is enhanced by another amendment from Pocock and Lambie, which would require the government to publish details on how much emissions reduction had been delivered each year, broken down across major industries such as energy, transport and agriculture.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-integrity-pocock-attacks-labor-s-climate-bill-ahead-of-senate-debate-20220904-p5bf90.html

    I think their requests are fair enough. I’d allow them if I were Chris Bowen and the government.

  11. Another stellar Newspoll. With luck, the government can cash in on the positive sentiment and translate it into support for a Yes vote at the Voice referendum.

    Striking while the iron’s hot is a good idea. As Kevin Bonham’s excellent analysis from a few weeks back shows, the duration of electoral honeymoons for Federal governments in recent decades has ranged from nil/minimal to 2 + years (Rudd in 2007):

    https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/08/poll-roundup-albanese-honeymoon-phase.html

  12. Labor can form Majority government with a primary vote around 33%

    The lib/nats combined primary vote of 31% on federal election day would result in another 20+ seats lost for the lib/nats

    The Lib/nats will not be in government for a long time unless they can get the combined primary vote over 40% +

  13. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, September 5, 2022 at 6:43 am
    “David Pocock’s gambit to get his vote for the Climate Change Bill….. I think their requests are fair enough. I’d allow them if I were Chris Bowen and the government.”

    +1 C@T, they’re sensible and collaborative and it makes a good point re transparency. They even give the government future wriggle room to improve things in the second term.

  14. Yes, it became obvious to me years ago that the effect of Godwin’s law was to prevent people calling out parallels between people like Trump and Hitler.

    The comforting thing was that people apparently had learnt a little from history – when Trump tried to ban people from certain countries coming to America, the pushback from ordinary people was immediate and decisive.

  15. Cronus,
    It will be an interesting piece of business to watch unfold in the Senate this week. Plus, I understand the FICAC Bill is being introduced into the Lower House. Phew!

  16. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, September 5, 2022 at 6:55 am
    Cronus,
    “It will be an interesting piece of business to watch unfold in the Senate this week. Plus, I understand the FICAC Bill is being introduced into the Lower House. Phew!”

    A promising week indeed C@T, I’m keeping my fingers crossed.

  17. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    The electoral honeymoon for Anthony Albanese continues. As does the post-election nightmare for Peter Dutton and the Coalition, writes Simon Benson about the latest Newspoll results. He opines that it shows Labor’s dominance is less about its own rising fortunes and satisfaction with Albanese’s performance over the past month than it is about the sinking state of the Coalition.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll-honeymoon-continues-for-anthony-albanese-as-peter-duttons-nightmare-grows-worse/news-story/a23551554211932536c7c30f7380539f
    Alan Kohler says that, among its outcomes, the jobs summit underlined the irrelevance of the Opposition. He says the best thing about the summit was that it was both an exercise in humility – of listening – and a statement that governing is not a venture in ideology, but in competence and consultation.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/opinion/2022/09/05/summits-exercise-in-humility/
    The stage 3 cuts, as they stand, are unfair and difficult to defend. But with tweaks, the government can make them more equitable, and politically palatable writes Steven Hamilton who calls for them to be redesigned.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/redesign-stage-3-tax-cuts-to-better-balance-equity-and-efficiency-20220904-p5bf7v.html
    Tom Rabe reports that senior NSW ministers have launched a scathing attack on the Albanese government for its foray into the long-running dispute between the state and rail unions.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/arrogant-nsw-transport-minister-lashes-feds-amid-rail-dispute-20220904-p5bfa9.html
    The debate on Labor’s climate change bill sets up the first major test of the Albanese government’s relationship with the Senate crossbench, write Lisa Visentin and Mike Foley.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-integrity-pocock-attacks-labor-s-climate-bill-ahead-of-senate-debate-20220904-p5bf90.html
    “Albanese warms to the top job, but has he the skills to deliver?”, wonders Sean Kelly.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-warms-to-the-top-job-but-has-he-the-skills-to-deliver-20220904-p5bf7t.html
    Unions are again playing a central role in corridors of power writes Ross Gittins who says that the Libs didn’t know the union bosses and didn’t want to know them. They were the enemy – always had been, always would be. Big business bosses, on the other hand, would be privately consulted and were always welcome to phone up for a quiet word with the minister.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/unions-again-play-a-central-role-in-corridors-of-power-20220904-p5bf8g.html
    Richard Mulligan writes that the Australian Public Service has been tarnished by Scott Morrison’s ministerial portfolio scandal and says the episode raises the general issue of the public service’s function as guardian of constitutional propriety and due process. It is a reminder that recent concerns about falling standards of government integrity have involved the failings of public officials as well as those of ministers.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7887190/public-service-not-unscathed-in-scandal/?cs=14329
    Behind closed doors, the big industry super funds have clearly told the Albanese government that they’ll only invest in ‘national priorities’ if the risk/return ratio improves, writes Karen Maley.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/jim-chalmers-rude-awakening-from-his-super-dream-20220904-p5bf83
    Jim Chalmers, has asked the competition watchdog to crack down hard on any price gouging when the petrol excise cut expires at the end of September. The letter to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, released on Monday, confirms the government’s intention to reintroduce “the full excise” on 29 September.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/05/consumer-watchdog-will-crack-down-on-petrol-price-gouging-when-tax-cut-ends-labor-says
    A former Reserve Bank economist has suggested that the Greens’ push for an interest rate freeze is nonsensical.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/sep/04/former-reserve-bank-economist-suggests-greens-push-for-interest-rate-freeze-is-nonsensical
    John Menadue says that the Greens are at it again and threatening to block the referendum on the ‘Voice’ which promises to give effect to the Uluru Statement from the Heart.
    https://johnmenadue.com/john-menadue-the-pompous-greens-are-at-it-again/
    Federal officials are flouting their own rules by rejecting fair requests to release documents and disclose the reasons for sweeping decisions, sparking a new warning about a “culture of secrecy” in politics and government, says David Crowe.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/transparency-has-been-killed-by-obstruction-as-officials-flout-foi-rules-20220904-p5bf7r.html
    And Geoffrey Watson and Max Douglas write that bogus reasons are being used to keep controversial documents secret. They say that over the past 15 years or so, and particularly in the last five, the FOI architecture has been left to decay while uninterested governments stood idly by.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bogus-reasons-are-being-used-to-keep-controversial-documents-secret-20220902-p5bf0r.html
    Matthew Elmas discusses “QantasKeeper” and whether or not Australia’s largest pandemic bailout was a rip off.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2022/09/03/qantas-keeper-bailout-ripoff/
    The US private prisons operator likely to take over Australia’s offshore processing regime on Nauru has previously been accused of “gross negligence” and “egregious” security failures that allegedly led to the gang-rape of a woman in detention, the murder of two retirees by escaped prisoners, and the months-long solitary confinement of a US citizen wrongfully held in immigration detention, write Ben Doherty and Christopher Knaus.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/sep/05/the-egregious-history-of-likely-new-nauru-operator-includes-allegations-of-gang-and-in-its-us-prisons
    The Age tells us that Australians lost more than $11.4b on poker machines in a single year despite COVID-19 lockdowns, with the average Victorian user losing about $2800. What a blight!
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/calls-for-gambling-harm-body-after-victorians-lose-2-2-billion-on-pokies-in-single-year-20220904-p5bf97.html
    And sports gambling ads are flooding our media. Apart from anything else, they’re irritating, declares Greg Baum.
    https://www.theage.com.au/sport/gambling-ad-blitz-in-sport-is-a-turn-off-20220902-p5bew1.html
    Caitlin Fitzsimmons reports that Sydney high schools are seeing a rise in anti-Semitism, with at least two in the eastern suburbs dealing with incidents of Nazi salutes and Jewish students being bullied.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/eastern-suburbs-schools-grapple-with-nazi-salutes-and-anti-semitic-bullying-20220830-p5bdxg.html
    Rob Harris wonders if we really have seen the last of Boris Johnson.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/have-we-really-seen-the-last-of-boris-johnson-20220904-p5bf86.html
    As the war raging past its sixth month, Ukraine’s ambassador to Australia is lobbying the federal government to send a fleet of 30 newly built Hawkei light armoured vehicles to the war zone.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/ukraine-s-pitch-to-australia-use-our-army-as-your-guinea-pig-20220904-p5bf7l.html
    In a rally over the weekend, Donald Trump has said, “The FBI and the justice department have become vicious monsters, controlled by radical-left scoundrels, lawyers and the media, who tell them what to do.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/sep/04/trump-rally-fbi-doj-vicious-monsters-mar-a-lago-search
    Democracy is under attack in the US – and reporting that isn’t ‘violating journalistic standards’, writes Robert Reich who says “Balanced journalism” does not exist halfway between facts and lies.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/04/biden-speech-democracy-attack-media-coverage-republicans

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    Jim Pavlidis

    Megan Herbert

    Matt Golding

    Glen Le Lievre

    Mark Knight

    Bloody Leak

    From the US


  18. More than 4.7 million Australians will get more money thanks to the biggest indexation rise in 30 years, the Herald-Sun ($) reports. JobSeeker will increase by $25.70 to $677.20 a fortnight (which, it must be pointed out, is still extremely difficult to live on), and the parenting payment single will rise $35.20 to $927.40 a fortnight. Pensioners will get $20 extra a week ($987.60 to $1026.50 a fortnight for singles, or $38.90) whereas couples will get extra $58.80 a fortnight ($1547.60 per couple).

  19. Thanks BK

    “ The electoral honeymoon for Anthony Albanese continues. As does the post-election nightmare for Peter Dutton and the Coalition, writes Simon Benson about the latest Newspoll results. He opines that it shows Labor’s dominance is less about its own rising fortunes and satisfaction with Albanese’s performance over the past month than it is about the sinking state of the Coalition.”

    I’m going with its both.

  20. BK:
    “Bloody Leak”….

    One crappy one out…. another crappy one in, to maintain continuity…. At NewsCorpse they take Sustainability of Crappiness very, very seriously.

  21. Thanks, BK.
    NZ allows pensioners to earn money without any restriction. It’s a perfect test case where we can see the downsides (are there any?) and simplifies by avoiding the bureaucratic expense and nightmares of the likes of RoboDebt.

  22. Oh dear, Gary Varvel from the US accusing Biden of “dividing America” in a cartoon?….

    Hence, by extension, Donald Trump is “the great unifier of America”?….

    Can anyone get inside Varvel’s braincase and see whether there is anything there, or is it just connective tissue without anything to connect?

  23. Canada: The Saskatchewan RCMP says 10 people have been killed and another 15 are injured following a stabbing spree that took place in the communities of James Smith Cree Nation and Weldon, Saskatchewan.

    It is the deadliest homicide event in the provinces history. RCMP says the suspects are still at large and they do not know where the suspects are.

  24. @cronus

    I don’t think it’s hyperbole at all, they’re referring to a cohort of recent borrowers who thanks to recent rate rises and inflation are now over leveraged and thanks to reduced borrowing capacity are not able to refinance their loans to try and get a better deal. There will be a number of people who took out mortgages with fixed terms for the first few years who find themselves in that boat and about to get walloped when the fixed rate honeymoon period expires and they get a huge whack of rate rises all at once

  25. Re Quasar @8:13. The NZ age pension system is beautifully simple. You meet residency requirements and you turn 65, you get a pension, even if you’re still working. There are some means-tested supplements. Pensions are taxable. Private pensions aren’t subsidised via tax concessions or otherwise.

    Howard and Costello made such as dogs breakfast of our system that I’m now thinking that the NZ setup is the better system.

    https://sorted.org.nz/guides/retirement/about-nz-super

  26. I see Leak plagiarised his cartoon today from the Far Right Wing gary varvel in the US. Shows just how much of a non-talent Johannes Leak is.

  27. #weatheronPB
    A quiet pale blue descended.
    Subtly decorated with thin marbled translucent clouds.
    Still drifting aimlessly, it’s early.

  28. PageBoi @ #48 Monday, September 5th, 2022 – 8:19 am

    @cronus

    I don’t think it’s hyperbole at all, they’re referring to a cohort of recent borrowers who thanks to recent rate rises and inflation are now over leveraged and thanks to reduced borrowing capacity are not able to refinance their loans to try and get a better deal. There will be a number of people who took out mortgages with fixed terms for the first few years who find themselves in that boat and about to get walloped when the fixed rate honeymoon period expires and they get a huge whack of rate rises all at once

    The same situations that caused the GFC, except in smaller scale. All down to mortgage brokers and banks who suckered the gullible into signing up for unsupportable loans, while drastically driving up real estate auction prices, as buyers pushed themselves to their absolute limits in desperation. A disgrace.

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