Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor (open thread)

Labor maintains its Newspoll dominance, with the Coalition primary vote and Peter Dutton’s personal ratings both heading in the wrong direction.

The Australian reports the second Newspoll since the election has produced an even weaker result for the Coalition than the first four weeks ago, with Labor’s two-party lead out from 56-44 to 57-43. Labor’s primary vote is steady at 37%, with the Coalition down two to 31% – their equal worst result in Newspoll history, matching the third poll under the Rudd government in February-March 2008 – with the Greens up one to 13%, One Nation up one to 7% (their strongest result in three years) and the United Australia Party steady on 2%.

Anthony Albanese is steady on 61% approval and up three on disapproval to 29%, while Peter Dutton is down two on approval to 35% and up two on disapproval to 43%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 59-25 to 61-22. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1505.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

723 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham
    ·
    3m

    #Newspoll 57-43 is the biggest 2PP lead for either side since the Labor opposition led the Abbott government by the same amount in Feb 2015 after the Prince Philip knighthood announcement and Queensland election loss. L-NP had larger leads vs Gillard Labor in 2013.

  2. Sweet. I can see the morning headline in the Telegraph and Herald Sun:
    “Dutton’s popularity jumps 5 points.” 😀

    Great figures though for Labor. Its the governing bit. Adieu Matthew Guy too.

    The only down side is that on these figures there is no chance Morrison will resign and risk a by-election.

    I wonder what Monday’s distraction will be? Night all.


  3. Socratessays:
    Sunday, September 4, 2022 at 9:51 pm
    Sweet. I can see the morning headline in the Telegraph and Herald Sun:
    “Dutton’s popularity jumps 5 points.”

    Great figures though for Labor. Its the governing bit. Adieu Matthew Guy too.

    The only down side is that on these figures there is no chance Morrison will resign and risk a by-election.

    I wonder what Monday’s distraction will be? Night all.

    Socrates
    The factual heading could be “Albanese disapproval jumps by 3 points “. 🙂

  4. Rex will not be happy, as he spends every day in here criticising Albanese.
    The public obviously liked what they saw of the jobs summit this past week.

  5. One final thought: isn’t this a vindication of the political judgement of Janet Albrechtson,
    who said Peter Dutton
    “Hadn’t put afoot wrong”.

    😀

  6. As they say in the classics, a beautiful set of numbers. It won’t last, of course, but as South says, it’s a buffer. A useful buffer against the realities of day to day governing, necessary but tough decisions to come that can’t please everybody and which will piss off more than a few, the unremitting negativity of the Dutton Opposition, an unfriendly media and “events”.

  7. I just watched insiders and I think that’s it for me with that show.
    Why the media thinks that interviewing itself is a good idea is beyond me.
    Sadly it was stage 3 tax cut’s and fiscal responsibility, a problem that only affects the labor party. And the best part was F Kelly commanding that labor had to do something. Well who elected her, no one! There really needs to be generational change at the ABC.

  8. And on that very pleasant Newspoll note I’m off to bed with guaranteed sweet dreams of continued Coalition misery. S3 tax cut promise doesn’t appear to be hurting Albo in the least.

  9. Yep ABC and QnA just a righty lynch mob. OMG when your that far left that you see the ABC as right wing….I mean you beyond redemption at that point.

  10. If Labor keeps the Stage 3 Tax Cuts, it might be for the same reason that after nine years of Coalition rule we still have Medicare…


  11. Socratessays:
    Sunday, September 4, 2022 at 10:10 pm
    One final thought: isn’t this a vindication of the political judgement of Janet Albrechtson,
    who said Peter Dutton
    “Hadn’t put afoot wrong”.

  12. Mark Jacob
    @MarkJacob16
    With all the arguments over whether MAGA Republicans are fascists, I reread William Shirer’s “The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich” to see how much the rise of Hitler and the rise of MAGA smell similar.
    Conclusion: They do. This thread lists 10 ways. Please take a look.

    https://twitter.com/MarkJacob16/status/1565791560259739651?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1565791560259739651%7Ctwgr%5E905e7a5ed5bbeb1fff3fcc5cb6bf7bdc0ce05588%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstory%2F2022%2F9%2F4%2F2120628%2F-Abbreviated-Pundit-Roundup-Information-Un-commons

    Read the entire tweetstorm (about 10 tweets) if you can; he provides photographs of specific passages of Rise and Fall.

  13. Steelydan says:
    Sunday, September 4, 2022 at 10:27 pm

    Yep ABC and QnA just a righty lynch mob. OMG when your that far left that you see the ABC as right wing….I mean you beyond redemption at that point.
    中华人民共和国
    Stellydan cobber – you still plucking that string? Where is your old mate Taylormade? Or is it too hard to log on and log off? Bloody ripper poll. Love youse all.

  14. No Griff not at all.

    The polls tonight are correct because Albanese and the ALP have governed very well since the election. Well except for the the excruciating, cringe worthy Shaq fiasco but it is small potatoes.

    Now could you ever say the same about a period of Coalition Government…Nah been all shit, right?

  15. Dutton is about as popular as Fosters in a Townsville Pub..

    “While Mr Albanese maintained his high approval ratings of 61 per cent – unchanged on the previous poll conducted in July – his disapproval ratings increased three points to 29 per cent, leading to a drop in his net approval ratings to plus 32 per cent.

    Mr Dutton’s overall approval ratings also fell.

    Those satisfied with his performance dropped two points to 35 per cent while those saying they were dissatisfied rose two points to 43 per cent.

    The Liberal leader’s net approval ratings fell four points to minus eight.”

    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll-coalition-support-plunges-to-record-low/news-story/67684c3ced5e98afdbf9e58df9f98a43

  16. Dutton can’t even make the Top 50 Queenslanders as judged by The Curious Snail! The Premiers’ Old Man Henry who has been retired for 16 years beats him at 51!! 🙂

    “52. Peter Dutton – Federal Opposition leader

    He’s the hard-nosed former police officer with a tough exterior tasked with reviving the highly-wounded Liberal Party. The re-sell of Peter Dutton to the public began almost as soon as the Australian Electoral Commission started counting postal votes.

    He has represented the Queensland seat of Dickson in the House of Representatives since 2001 and held ministerial office in the Howard, Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments.

    The former Defence and Home Affairs Minister is “pragmatic” and “witty”, according to his supporters. Ultimately, time will tell if the sum of Dutton’s character can turn the Coalition ship around.”

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/special-features/in-depth/the-couriermails-2022-power-100-list-counting-down-the-most-powerful-people-in-queensland-10051/news-story/fe9dd8606b3b4dbbb4464b6d61c1a606?amp

  17. I firmly believe that at some stage the Albanese Labor government will do something about the Stage 3 tax cuts, either modifying or eliminating altogether.

    To those who take comfort in attacking Labor on these tax cuts, take a look at this poll and reflect.

  18. I can confirm that the Tim Smith fence was not fixed yesterday. Given he hit it on November 1 last year it is getting close to the one year mark.

  19. Poorline nearly beats Dutton at 56 on the list. As Courier Mail points out she will be joining with the Greens in pushing for a “no” vote in the Voice to Parliament referendum.

    “56. Pauline Hanson – Queensland Senator

    Recently re-elected for her second six-year term, Pauline Hanson has less of the shock factor that saw her the centre of focus when she was first catapulted back into politics in 2016.

    Her party One Nation no longer retains a share of the balance of power that it once did, but that does not mean she is not a force to be reckoned with. She has amassed a loyal following of voters and is still able to court controversy to some effect, using stunts to manipulate social and traditional media coverage.

    She is also setting herself up to lead the “no” vote for the planned referendum on a Voice to Parliament, which could see a return to prominence for the firebrand Senator.”

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/special-features/in-depth/the-couriermails-2022-power-100-list-counting-down-the-most-powerful-people-in-queensland-10051/news-story/fe9dd8606b3b4dbbb4464b6d61c1a606?amp

  20. B. S. Fairman says:
    Sunday, September 4, 2022 at 11:06 pm

    I can confirm that the Tim Smith fence was not fixed yesterday. Given he hit it on November 1 last year it is getting close to the one year mark.
    中华人民共和国
    Matthew Guy been too busy changing staff to get to the “tradesmen”.


  21. B. S. Fairmansays:
    Sunday, September 4, 2022 at 11:06 pm
    I can confirm that the Tim Smith fence was not fixed yesterday. Given he hit it on November 1 last year it is getting close to the one year mark.

    Probably Victorian Libs want to fix it with public purse after they win November State election. 🙂

  22. To Peter Dutton and Sussssan Ley:

    Congratulations on your great Newspoll achievement. I wish you many long years of well-deserved leadership of the Coalition…. Stay the course…. Victory is just around the corner.
    🙂

    P.S. What’s that cracking sound?…. It’s the Liberal party falling apart!

  23. Cat at 10.20 pm

    Speaking of polls, did you read the report on Ardern at the ABC news website by Emily Clark?

    Can’t link it as just on phone, but it’s near the top of that news site now. I am visiting a house with a TV and I saw a truncated version on the news.

    Now, what is wrong with the article? It cites the third most recent poll, without noting a) that the most recent poll (3 weeks ago, with a somewhat larger sample) has Labour marginally ahead of National, and b) that the trend for National is down somewhat in recent months (evident from graph on TV version). However the article does manage to report that the National leader Mr Luxon is a fundamentalist Catholic, i.e. anti-abortion.

    The article quotes NZ experts stating the obvious, that the next NZ election will be close. The same could not now be said about the next federal election in Australia, over 2 years away.

    While the journo appears to be trying to do her best, it is easier to get closer to the truth using Wikipedia than the ABC. The TV report was strange in implying that poor people in S Auckland might be voting National. The rural vote for National will go up, but much less in the cities.

  24. Steelydan @ Sunday, September 4, 2022 at 10:57 pm

    Apologies for being obtuse. I was suggesting your argument with respect to the ABC could be just as easily argued from the other position.

    And glad to see you have seen the light with respect to the previous government. Better late than never 🙂

  25. Great news for the Lobster: When he and his Victorian Coalition will be defeated in November, he can always say to Dutton that “But we didn’t lose with the massive margin that you have got from Newspoll”…

    Lobsters are good at consoling themselves, before being cut and spread over with a bit of mayo….


  26. Steelydansays:
    Sunday, September 4, 2022 at 10:57 pm
    No Griff not at all.

    The polls tonight are correct because Albanese and the ALP have governed very well since the election. Well except for the the excruciating, cringe worthy Shaq fiasco but it is small potatoes.

    Now could you ever say the same about a period of Coalition Government…Nah been all shit, right?

    Steelydan
    I can find 3 sets of numbers in this poll not good
    1. ALP PV remains at 37%
    2. Albanese disapproval jumps by 3 points.
    3. Greens PV increased to 13% after doing zip.

  27. ”P.S. What’s that cracking sound?…. It’s the Liberal party falling apart!”

    That would be great but I fear that rumours of the death of the “Liberal” party are exaggerated. A shame really, it is no longer fit for purpose.

    Be that as it may, Peter Dutton’s got another nine months or so to turn things around otherwise he’ll go the way of Alexander Downer and Brendan Nelson and any number of long-forgotten NSW Opposition leaders during periods of Labor ascendency. Perhaps the Liberals will decide he hasn’t been right-wing enough, but I’m not sure who’s on next if that turns out to be the case.

  28. Upnorth at 11.09pm

    Be more precise with positions re Voice referendum (date TBA).

    Hanson and CLP Senator Price are currently heading No ticket. Dutton is taking a while to say anything, facing conflicting pressures. If No had a good show, Dutton would have been quicker to lead No campaign.

    Greens also appear conflicted, but not for the same reason. They will almost certainly go Yes, because they would lose too many votes if they don’t. Shoebridge certainly knows it.

    While the Uluru Statement has been publicised for over 5 years we are still in the preliminary warm up phase for referendum. Positions will be much clearer by late January 2023. Don’t confuse warm up with action.

  29. Steve777says:
    Sunday, September 4, 2022 at 10:34 pm

    If Labor keeps the Stage 3 Tax Cuts, it might be for the same reason that after nine years of Coalition rule we still have Medicare…

    Avoiding political damage?

  30. “Been There says:
    Sunday, September 4, 2022 at 11:05 pm
    I firmly believe that at some stage the Albanese Labor government will do something about the Stage 3 tax cuts, either modifying or eliminating altogether.

    To those who take comfort in attacking Labor on these tax cuts, take a look at this poll and reflect.”

    Presumably both Greens and Teals will finally get tired of flogging the dead horse of “S3-tax cuts now!”. However, Labor may return to the issue in 2+ years time, in preparation for their 2025 federal election campaign. After all, they did want to eliminate those S3-tax cuts before the 2022 election (they only accepted them after Morrison introduced all tax cuts together in an omnibus bill), so during the next federal election campaign they may decide to offer to repeal those tax cuts in their program for the next term, and let the People decide.

  31. Greens poll 13%.
    What does that signify?
    IMO, a lot of people on left are still hedging their bets when it comes to ALP. I understand that 85% Greens preferences flow to ALP.
    But this kind of hedging is hurting ALP in Senate. Because of high PV to Greens ALP only has 26 senators and Greens have 12 senators.

  32. ”Avoiding political damage?”

    Yes. The cuts have no merit and no priority with all the other crap that’s going on and everything that’s crawling out from under rocks left in place during nine years of neglect and incompetence. The world has changed since the cuts were passed by the Parliament.

    However, dropping or deferring them would be breaking a promise. Very loud voices with very big megaphones will bellow if they don’t get them. Dropping or deferring Stage 3 would indeed be a “courageous” decision.

  33. “Steve777says:
    Sunday, September 4, 2022 at 11:28 pm
    ”P.S. What’s that cracking sound?…. It’s the Liberal party falling apart!”

    That would be great but I fear that rumours of the death of the “Liberal” party are exaggerated. A shame really, it is no longer fit for purpose.

    Be that as it may, Peter Dutton’s got another nine months or so to turn things around otherwise he’ll go the way of Alexander Downer and Brendan Nelson and any number of long-forgotten NSW Opposition leaders during periods of Labor ascendency. Perhaps the Liberals will decide he hasn’t been right-wing enough, but I’m not sure who’s on next if that turns out to be the case.”

    Yes, of course the Libs are not dead…. yet. But they are doing their best to grab the scythe from the hands of the Grim Ripper, to accelerate the process themselves… 🙂
    In any event, you ask a good question: Who could possibly replace Peter Dutton? And what chances could that person have at the next federal election? The only potential leader is in the Senate: Simon Birmingham (with very little chances of winning anything, anyway). In the House of Reps, where the leader is supposed to come from, I can only see Andrew Hastie as a very remote possibility…. and that’s about it.

  34. ” Greens poll 13%.
    What does that signify?”

    Probably nothing much. The Greens got 12.25% of the primary vote in May. I would suggest it’s just statistical noise.

  35. “Ven says:
    Sunday, September 4, 2022 at 11:44 pm
    Greens poll 13%.
    What does that signify?
    IMO, a lot of people on left are still hedging their bets when it comes to ALP. I understand that 85% Greens preferences flow to ALP.
    But this kind of hedging is hurting ALP in Senate. Because of high PV to Greens ALP only has 26 senators and Greens have 12 senators.”

    The ALP went to the 2022 federal election campaign after having spent 9 years in opposition. Now, when you are in opposition you can’t introduce many pieces of legislation, if any, and so your competitors (even competitors from the same broad Progressive side of politics, such as the Greens) will benefit from the cloud of mistrust, doubt, incredulity that will surround you and your promises.

    It’s a very different situation after you have been in government for 3 years, delivering policies and showing the voters exactly what are you about. At that stage, the propaganda of your competitors will have far less force in the mind of the voters.

    Chances are that the Greens will decrease their vote and therefore the number of people in both the Senate and the H. of Reps., at the next federal election.

  36. “Asha it is on record earlier that you loathe the boring sport of kings.
    Are you in favour of duck hunting?”

    I’m all in favour of duck hunting… as long as it’s duck’s hunting humans, Looks
    like the sick demented potato’s goose is cooked though *ha*

  37. Dr Doolittle says:
    Sunday, September 4, 2022 at 11:29 pm
    Upnorth at 11.09pm

    Be more precise with positions re Voice referendum (date TBA).
    中华人民共和国
    Roger that good Doctor. Let’s keep the ear to the ground. I hope your hunch is right or the Greens will go the way of the Democrats me doth think.

    Night one and all from humid and stormy Bangkok!

  38. Can someone answer me this:
    When was the last time that when a government lost, that the first new leader of the opposition went on to win government?
    I wouldn’t imagine the odds are good for Dutton

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