Essential Research and JWS Research post-election survey (open thread)

Anthony Albanese’s ratings remain high, albeit slightly less high, while JWS Research offers results from a poll conducted in the days after the election.

Essential Research’s fortnightly report continues to not feature voting intention, and its monthly leadership ratings are continuing to not feature Peter Dutton. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 55% in this month’s result, while his disapproval is up four to 28%. Some steam has also gone out of a post-election surge on a monthly national direction question, on which 43% find Australia headed in the right direction, down four, with wrong direction up three to 31%.

In a series of “performance of the Albanese government” questions, there was a 56-44 majority in favour of it having its priorities right, 54-46 majorities for getting things done and being in touch and 52-48 for addressing long-term problems, although a 51-49 majority felt it too idealistic. A series on “support for federal government measures is less good: 60% want the fuel excise cut extended, with only 12% supporting the government’s intention to not do so, 44% support higher JobSeeker payments, with 27% opposed, and 42% want a delay in “stage three income tax cuts, which predominantly benefits higher income earners”, with 25% opposed.

“Awareness of proposed Voice to Parliament” would appear to be fairly low, with 33% saying they had heard nothing of it in the past month and 32% saying hardly anything, compared with 5% for a lot and 29% for a fair amount. With the notion explained, 65% said they were in favour and 35% opposed. Seventy-five per cent supported a parliamentary pledge to “Australia and the Australian people”, with only 15% opting for the Queen. The survey was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1075.

Also out this week is a post-election survey report from JWS Research, conducted from a sample of 1000 in the two days after the May 21 election. Asked what was most important in deciding their vote, more chose for “the party as a whole” than for “specific policies or issues”, and fewer still for the leaders and candidates, but Coalition voters were most inclined to rate the first of these and Greens voters uniquely favoured the second.

On issue salience, there was a 53-10 majority for economic over environmental issues among Coalition voters, but a 36-29 majority the other way among Labor voters, both sets of numbers being hardly changed from a similar survey after the 2019 election. An exercise in which respondents were asked whether or not the election campaign possessed various qualities also produced results very similar to 2019: 56-16 for important over not important, 39-30 for not interesting over interesting, 38-27 for negative over positive, 42-24 for deceitful over honest, 51-22 for same old stuff over new and different. For whatever reason, impressions were more negative across the board in 2016.

Thirty-six per cent rated the Labor campaign positive and 35% negative, compared with 28% and 44% for the Coalition. From 44% who said they favoured a Labor government, 25% favoured a majority and 19% a minority government; from 33% who favoured a Coalition government, 24% favoured a majority and 9% a majority.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,356 comments on “Essential Research and JWS Research post-election survey (open thread)”

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  1. This really stinks, too:

    “Ronni Salt@RonniSalt
    Approx 6 months after the Gov General David Hurley secretly swore in Scott Morrison as multiple ministers, Hurley presented to the PM seeking funds for his charity
    Correspondence at the time shows Morrison was on board with Hurley’s request
    Hurley’s charity received $18 million”

  2. It seems to me that GG David Hurley is the last person you should go to about leadership or to run a leadership program.

  3. ah!
    The lack of transparency!
    Who’d have thought?
    From Morrison!

    Ah!
    The lack of (concern for) transparency!
    Who’d have thought?
    From Nath!

  4. ‘Casino Car Park says:
    Monday, August 15, 2022 at 5:40 pm

    BW@5:03
    Classic “I’m not racist but” that one is for the scrapbook.
    I have offered no comment on the merits or otherwise of the current government of China. I am just trying to point out that the people of China are really rather nice and worthy of being treated with basic respect.
    BTW if you used that term in China you would most likely get a punch in the mouth rather than your fantasy outcomes.’
    ——————————————
    Nice try, but no potato. The Chicommies and the Government of China are one and the same.
    You described my criticism as ‘a gish gallop rant’. You have moved right along to the view that I must be racist because I have profound contempt for the Chicommies. Just being considerate, were we?

    So back to the substance of what the Chicommies are really up to in China:

    Which part of the ‘gish gallop rant’ do you wish to discuss as being untrue, from your perspective?
    The death of millions of Chinese because of Mao’s disastrous leadership?
    The death of 600,000 Tibetans?
    The abortion of tens of millions of female fetuses?
    The unprovoked and unjustified invasion of Vietnam?
    The genocidal treatment of the Uighers?
    Over to you, comrade!

  5. BK at v5.47

    From Rex Patrick, the FoI Warrior…
    ____________

    I would have preferred it if Rex’s letter used the term ‘then-Prime Minister’ – for the sake of clarity.

    I came late to the news today and needed a google search to confirm that the ‘Albanese revelations’ weren’t about Albo, but by him about Morrison.

  6. Wow, spent the last 24hours ‘in transit’ and didn’t pick up on this till I woke this am in Singers.
    Lots of Twitter-takes on the ever-busy exPM…

  7. Xi, boss of the Chicommies, has simplified the whole thing. He is chair of all the important Chicommie committees, etc, etc, etc.
    Nothing opaque about it at all.
    Which does mean HE has all the blood on HIS hands.
    The Yuan stops with Xi.

  8. Interestingly, the term ‘Chi Commies’ seems to have arisen in the U.S State Department in the late 40s. Further research reveals that MAGA nuts refer to Biden as ‘Chi Com Joe’.

  9. ‘Sohar says:
    Monday, August 15, 2022 at 5:53 pm

    This really stinks, too:

    “Ronni Salt@RonniSalt
    Approx 6 months after the Gov General David Hurley secretly swore in Scott Morrison as multiple ministers, Hurley presented to the PM seeking funds for his charity
    Correspondence at the time shows Morrison was on board with Hurley’s request
    Hurley’s charity received $18 million”
    ….’
    ———————–
    If the two are linked causally, then, IMO that would probably be illegal. But we don’t have any evidence that I know of, that the two are linked causally.

  10. nappy Tom at 6:06 pm

    I would have preferred it if Rex’s letter used the term ‘then-Prime Minister’ – for the sake of clarity.

    Only ‘then’ ? I’d prefer the adding all of the following ‘ex’, ‘former’,’no longer’ , “previous’ …… for the clarity 😉

  11. poroti @ #2218 Monday, August 15th, 2022 – 6:23 pm

    nappy Tom at 6:06 pm

    I would have preferred it if Rex’s letter used the term ‘then-Prime Minister’ – for the sake of clarity.

    Only ‘then’ ? I’d prefer the adding all of the following ‘ex’, ‘former’,’no longer’ , “previous’ …… for the clarity 😉

    How about “discontinued”, “superseded”, “superannuated”, “outdated”, “upgraded”, “expired” or “terminated”?

    Also, given the secrecy surrounding who is a minister now, how about “alleged”?

  12. Boerwar is to be commended for his concern for the Tibetan victims of the Chinese government. The fact that he also considers the atomic blasts at Nagasaki and Hiroshima ‘a blessing’ merely demonstrates that we are dealing with a complex human being.

  13. BW@6.05pm
    I base the use of the term ‘racist’ on what you wrote in your post, it really is classic, text book even. I apologise for any offence I have caused, I do realise you did not mean it.
    To be clear I apologise for calling you a racist.

    You continue to seek to offend, lashing out wildly, indiscriminately and entirely without a logical point.
    Why would you conflate a dislike of offensive language with the support of a despotic regime?
    Let me put it to you like this, that term is offensive as it targets Chinese people as well as the target you seek to attack. Would it surprise you to learn that someone who’s family has suffered at the hands of the regime you so despise finds the use of that terminology problematic?
    If you want to offer verbal attack to the CCP, the current government of China, go for it mate. I merely ask that you consider not using a term that I, and perhaps others, find offensive.
    BTW I have very little interest in potatoes perhaps you could send me some recipes so I might come to appreciate potatoes in their full culinary glory.

  14. IF the Chinese population of 1.4 billion is not satisfied with their government do you think the government would last?

    The government is there because of a revolution after all

    The first objective of the Chinese government is to improve the living standards of its population – it is their signature policy

    Which it continues to deliver

    It is put to me by those more knowledgeable on China than me (because they actually live there) that, if the China government did not deliver for its citizens and their living standards fell, the government would fall

    And the government knows that full well

    Some on here are blinded by prejudice and racism

  15. Q: What is the difference between Scott Morrison and a builder?
    A: The Governor General publicly announces his builder.

  16. ‘Here we go again says:
    Monday, August 15, 2022 at 6:35 pm

    IF the Chinese population of 1.4 billion is not satisfied with their government do you think the government would last?
    ….’
    ——————————
    The Chicommies could always put it to a referendum run by the UN. But I daresay that anyone who suggests a referendum to sort it out would be lucky not to be shot.

  17. IF the Chinese population of 1.4 billion is not satisfied with their government do you think the government would last?
    ________________
    It’s a complex dance of consent, resistance and sullen resentment and fear. Each day you can choose one of the 4.

  18. nath is shovelling particularly hard today for a self-described libertarian. Perhaps this is the libertarian solution? The best government is a government of one? A secret one at that 😉

  19. So the erstwhile pseud Finance Minister who didn’t know he wasn’t the Finance Minister and the same guy who helped crush climate action for a decade is now, as OECD Secretary-General, urging Australians to speed up climate action.
    ‘Bizarre’ hardly gets us there.

  20. poroti at 6.23

    Snappy Tom at 6:06 pm

    I would have preferred it if Rex’s letter used the term ‘then-Prime Minister’ – for the sake of clarity.

    Only ‘then’ ? I’d prefer the adding all of the following ‘ex’, ‘former’,’no longer’ , “previous’ …… for the clarity
    ____________

    ‘Given-the-arse PM’?

  21. Griff says:
    Monday, August 15, 2022 at 6:42 pm

    nath is shovelling particularly hard today for a self-described libertarian.
    __________
    Griff, I’m a fascinating mix of libertarian and social democratic instincts. I also love cash.

  22. @Boerwar… like the Dutch and English and the Yanks and Spanish and Russians, the Chinese can well be evil. Other than they are currently in ascendance I don’t think that makes them any worse or better.

    A generic assessment that powerful nations are cruel is fair

    And not ‘mentioning the war’ but umm Nauru, Manus, deaths in custody, NT youth detention centres. Not as if we are clean hands.

  23. Only Donald Trump would demand back the material he stole:

    “Oh great!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

    “It has just been learned that the FBI, in its now famous raid of Mar-a-Lago, took boxes of privileged ‘attorney-client’ material, and also ‘executive’ privileged material, which they knowingly should not have taken,” Trump continued.

    “By copy of this TRUTH, I respectfully request that these documents be immediately returned to the location from which they were taken,” he added. “Thank you!”

    Citing unidentified sources familiar with the investigation, Fox News on Saturday evening reported that the FBI seized five boxes that included information covered by attorney-client privilege as part of its extraordinary search at Trump’s Florida property on Monday. The network also reported that its sources said some records could be covered by executive privilege.

    (per The Hill)

  24. nath @ Monday, August 15, 2022 at 6:45 pm

    “Griff, I’m a fascinating mix of libertarian and social democratic instincts. I also love cash.”

    Bully for you. I must confess that she doesn’t do anything for me 😉

  25. “ Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is seeking advice, which is a reasonable first step, but it should embarrass federal officials that they cannot confirm who was in charge and when. Governor-General David Hurley confirms he signed documents to give the prime minister additional portfolios. Nobody produces the documents.”

    Anyway you look at it, this is an unacceptable situation in a functioning democracy.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-s-mystery-ministries-reduced-the-westminster-system-to-a-sitcom-20220815-p5ba10.html

  26. Sohar @ #2202 Monday, August 15th, 2022 – 5:53 pm

    This really stinks, too:

    “Ronni Salt@RonniSalt
    Approx 6 months after the Gov General David Hurley secretly swore in Scott Morrison as multiple ministers, Hurley presented to the PM seeking funds for his charity
    Correspondence at the time shows Morrison was on board with Hurley’s request
    Hurley’s charity received $18 million”

    The FICAC would surely investigate this.

  27. Cronus @ Monday, August 15, 2022 at 6:54 pm

    They cannot produce the administrative documents that the GG signed?

    Oopsie! That might be a problem.

  28. Byron

    Avid readers of my posts over the years (I am not aware of any such) would be aware of my swingeing condemnation of colonialism, including in particular Dutch colonialism in Indonesia -with which I have direct personal links.

    My avatar name was chosen in ‘honour’ of a most vicious, racist, and pointless imperial war.

    IMO, by far and away the most evil government in the world today is that run by the Chicommies. I call it as I see it. I understand that it is all relative, that no government is perfect, etc, etc, etc.

    There are 30 million bachelors in China today. It would be reasonable to assume that each bachelor represents a female abortion. It means, inter alia, that 30 million Chinese women underwent abortions at the political direction of the Chicommies.

    If that is not evil, I don’t know what is.

    Estimates for famine deaths as a result of the Chicommie’s Cultural Revolution go from 15-55 million. If THAT is not evil, I don’t know what is.

    Did I mention all the smaller, systemic evils? The street police who are there to bash you up? The state campaign against ‘feminine’ males? The state campaign against women who want to stay single?

    These are the guys (they are nearly all guys, BTW – they make the Liberals look like rabid feminists when it comes to the gender distribution of power) who are threatening 25 million democracy-loving Taiwanese with death, destruction and re-education.

    These are the thugs who have casually inflicted a trade punishment on Australia in excess of $20 billion. Inter alia, one of their fourteen demands is that the Australian MSM self censors instead of criticizing the Chicommies.

    The notion that the issue with the Chicommies is their name is utterly nauseating. The issue with the Chicommies is that they have a blood-soaked past and present and have no compunction at all about continuing their historical killing spree.

  29. Player One says:
    Monday, August 15, 2022 at 6:58 pm
    Cronus @ #2238 Monday, August 15th, 2022 – 6:54 pm

    Anyway you look at it, this is an unacceptable situation in a functioning democracy.
    “Fair point. So all good here in Australia, then?”

    It’s a salutary lesson in just how much democracy relies on trust in all levels of government to do the right thing. And when they don’t, particularly in a situation like this (or the USA), we realise the emperor has no clothes. An irony when the previous emperor cloaked himself in the virtues of religion.

  30. According to Sutton there’s no trickier politician than Dan Andrews. It could be that he is honest that’s the problem…

  31. ‘Cronus says:
    Monday, August 15, 2022 at 6:54 pm

    “ Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is seeking advice, which is a reasonable first step, but it should embarrass federal officials that they cannot confirm who was in charge and when. Governor-General David Hurley confirms he signed documents to give the prime minister additional portfolios. Nobody produces the documents.”

    Anyway you look at it, this is an unacceptable situation in a functioning democracy.
    …’
    —————————————–
    Um… any ministerial decisions that cannot be legitimised by references to the instruments and to the formal letters outlining ministerial powers lack validation. There could be some large-sh law suits in the offing.

  32. ‘Alpha Zero says:
    Monday, August 15, 2022 at 7:05 pm

    According to Sutton there’s no trickier politician than Dan Andrews. It could be that he is honest that’s the problem…’
    ———————
    haha.

  33. Bennelong Lurker @ #2142 Monday, August 15th, 2022 – 4:17 pm

    Itza:

    Yes, it was Klaus Florian Vogt. Camilla Nyland was Elsa.

    I wonder how much their assessment was clouded by the conditions or whether those conditions made the soloists’ task so much more challenging and the performances therefore flagged a little.
    I felt sorry for the audience, but more so for the cast. If the audience was less than usually uncomfortable, this might well have translated to the performers.
    On a different note, D and S-i-l hopped over the border to the Salzburg Festival a couple of weeks ago to hear a concert by Igor Levit which apparently was excellent.

    Plus the years take their toll, if not the heat. I think he’s also a bit erratic in lifestyle, and then there’s good days and off days. I’m pretty sure I heard Nyland sing the Siegfried Brunnhilde in Munich – a big warm voice with a noticeable pulse which made for a lovely sensual sound, which suited the role (cue awakening from fire-bound sleep and falling in love instantly) really nicely. Anyways, them were the daze. Lucky them getting tickets to Salzburg, hen’s teeth; yet to score.

    Have you ventured out in Sydney?

  34. Boerwar says:
    Monday, August 15, 2022 at 7:06 pm
    ‘Cronus says:
    Monday, August 15, 2022 at 6:54 pm

    “ Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is seeking advice, which is a reasonable first step, but it should embarrass federal officials that they cannot confirm who was in charge and when. Governor-General David Hurley confirms he signed documents to give the prime minister additional portfolios. Nobody produces the documents.”

    Anyway you look at it, this is an unacceptable situation in a functioning democracy.
    …’
    —————————————–
    “Um… any ministerial decisions that cannot be legitimised by references to the instruments and to the formal letters outlining ministerial powers lack validation. There could be some large-sh law suits in the offing.”

    I’ve a suspicion there is a lot more unraveling to come. This traditionally results in a lot of tangles, things get knotty and begin to break. I think the Coalition party room would be an interesting place to be a fly on the wall in coming weeks.

  35. Too many posts to wade through after work. What is the Labor hive mind consensus on here? Is Scomo liable to FICAC. What about Angus Taylor? Is he somehow involved and in jeopardy?

    When is FICAC announcing.

    And what Hurley? He has to go right? Perhaps Penny Wong can sort out the Lib appointments the world over as well. It’s a been a few months and Arthur the Martha is still in Washington as is Nick Greiner in NY.

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