Essential Research and JWS Research post-election survey (open thread)

Anthony Albanese’s ratings remain high, albeit slightly less high, while JWS Research offers results from a poll conducted in the days after the election.

Essential Research’s fortnightly report continues to not feature voting intention, and its monthly leadership ratings are continuing to not feature Peter Dutton. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 55% in this month’s result, while his disapproval is up four to 28%. Some steam has also gone out of a post-election surge on a monthly national direction question, on which 43% find Australia headed in the right direction, down four, with wrong direction up three to 31%.

In a series of “performance of the Albanese government” questions, there was a 56-44 majority in favour of it having its priorities right, 54-46 majorities for getting things done and being in touch and 52-48 for addressing long-term problems, although a 51-49 majority felt it too idealistic. A series on “support for federal government measures is less good: 60% want the fuel excise cut extended, with only 12% supporting the government’s intention to not do so, 44% support higher JobSeeker payments, with 27% opposed, and 42% want a delay in “stage three income tax cuts, which predominantly benefits higher income earners”, with 25% opposed.

“Awareness of proposed Voice to Parliament” would appear to be fairly low, with 33% saying they had heard nothing of it in the past month and 32% saying hardly anything, compared with 5% for a lot and 29% for a fair amount. With the notion explained, 65% said they were in favour and 35% opposed. Seventy-five per cent supported a parliamentary pledge to “Australia and the Australian people”, with only 15% opting for the Queen. The survey was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1075.

Also out this week is a post-election survey report from JWS Research, conducted from a sample of 1000 in the two days after the May 21 election. Asked what was most important in deciding their vote, more chose for “the party as a whole” than for “specific policies or issues”, and fewer still for the leaders and candidates, but Coalition voters were most inclined to rate the first of these and Greens voters uniquely favoured the second.

On issue salience, there was a 53-10 majority for economic over environmental issues among Coalition voters, but a 36-29 majority the other way among Labor voters, both sets of numbers being hardly changed from a similar survey after the 2019 election. An exercise in which respondents were asked whether or not the election campaign possessed various qualities also produced results very similar to 2019: 56-16 for important over not important, 39-30 for not interesting over interesting, 38-27 for negative over positive, 42-24 for deceitful over honest, 51-22 for same old stuff over new and different. For whatever reason, impressions were more negative across the board in 2016.

Thirty-six per cent rated the Labor campaign positive and 35% negative, compared with 28% and 44% for the Coalition. From 44% who said they favoured a Labor government, 25% favoured a majority and 19% a minority government; from 33% who favoured a Coalition government, 24% favoured a majority and 9% a majority.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,356 comments on “Essential Research and JWS Research post-election survey (open thread)”

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  1. Itza:

    Thumb nail review of Lohengrin performance from daughter.

    Chorus was excellent, Lohengrin was weak, Elsa was a better actor than singer.
    We are going back to the hotel for a light meal and a bucket of water.

  2. I think you would normally have to tell a deliberate actual porky in the House before misleading Parliament kicks in. There are mechanisms in Standing Orders for ministers to correct the record.

  3. Scott says:
    Monday, August 15, 2022 at 3:09 pm

    Former deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce claims Mr Morrison was sworn in as a second resources minister in December last year.
    ————————————————-

    Questions should be put to joyce why did he not tell his colleagues , if Joyce knew ,did Dutton ?
    _______________________

    Hold on, that would be Dec 2021, I thought the phantom ministries were at the start of Covid i.e. March 2020, just how long has this been going on and how many of these extra dual ministers are there?

  4. Actually, I am kind of bothered by calling people “prick”, and agree that merely “gutless” would have been far preferable. But it doesn’t rank that high on my scale of offence.

  5. There are times when a Minister is absent from Question Time and the Government nominates someone else to take those questions.

    It would be interesting to review who the Government nominated.

    If they nominated someone other than Morrison, would that be misleading the House as a relevant Minister was present?

  6. Casino Car Park
    Given the complete set of behaviours of the Chinese Communist Party ATM ‘Chicommies’ is completely benign.

  7. Dear PBrs,
    I ask that you consider restraint from using the term Chicommies. It reminds me of growing up hearing words like ‘Chinaman’, and worse, or even more depressingly reading them in the press. Could you consider the Chinese government or the Chinese communist party or somesuch instead? I am not demanding just requesting a consideration.

    Agreed.

  8. Boerwar @ #2109 Monday, August 15th, 2022 – 3:16 pm

    Social insects are the peak of insect evolution. WB was complimenting the usual suspects.

    I am currently reading about the many different species of termite gut bacteria and the role they play in the health and resilience of their hosts. (Spoiler: Without the bacteria the host would die.) Not drawing any parallels, mind.

  9. BiC
    Handpasses are usually taken to signify that the recipient has ministerial responsibility. In this case thst would have been true because there seems to have been some sort of notion of shared ministerial responsibility for the same thing.

  10. Boerwar,

    I’m not talking about handpassing a question, I’m referring to when the Minister is absent from Question Time and someone else is nominated as being responsible for any questions related to that portfolio.

  11. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/15/scott-morrison-used-self-appointed-powers-to-override-minister-on-unpopular-pep11-gas-drilling-permit

    “The decision is now the subject of a judicial review in the federal court with the project proponent, Asset Energy, taking action against the prime minister “as the responsible Commonwealth minister of the Commonwealth-New South Wales offshore petroleum joint authority”.”

    Oh dear. 🙂

  12. On election night as a Labor victory came to appear inevitable, Albo obtained guarantees of confidence and supply from four cross-benchers including Bob Katter. He presented this to the Governor General who swore him in as PM.

  13. BW@ 3.21pm
    I requested a consideration not a justification. Consider that the language you use may cause harm to others, that’s all, just consider.

  14. Tomorrow’s ABC news lead story

    “Despite having been aware of the issue for 24 hours, there is still no resolution to the constitutional crisis on PM Albo’s watch. For all we know, the embattled Albo has assigned himself secret Ministerial portfolios.

    This follows from Labor’s shocking failure to legislate an anti-corruption commitment, despite it being a key election commitment of the so called Labor so called party and the so called teal so called independent so called MPs.”

  15. imaccasays:
    Monday, August 15, 2022 at 3:31 pm

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/15/scott-morrison-used-self-appointed-powers-to-override-minister-on-unpopular-pep11-gas-drilling-permit

    “The decision is now the subject of a judicial review in the federal court with the project proponent, Asset Energy, taking action against the prime minister “as the responsible Commonwealth minister of the Commonwealth-New South Wales offshore petroleum joint authority”.”

    Oh dear.

    If Anne Toomey is correct the decision will stand as the Constitution validates decisions made by a Minister. This point was raised during the duel citizenship debate a few years ago.

  16. Asha @ #1263 Monday, August 15th, 2022 – 3:22 pm

    Dear PBrs,
    I ask that you consider restraint from using the term Chicommies. It reminds me of growing up hearing words like ‘Chinaman’, and worse, or even more depressingly reading them in the press. Could you consider the Chinese government or the Chinese communist party or somesuch instead? I am not demanding just requesting a consideration.

    Agreed.

    +1

  17. Today’s mortal political combat notwithstanding, I always learn something new whether it be political, procedural, historical etc, always interesting.

    From a certain perspective, there may be some value to the government in Morrison sticking around. He’s a real millstone around the Coalition’s neck in so many ways and such an easy target for almost everything you can imagine. When mixed with the enigmatic (I’m being kind) Joyce or the funereal Dutton, in the words of Greg Sheridan, they are indeed the “stupid party”.

    Today’s revelations add to the record and serve as future notice to those who would consider voting for the Coalition that those current MPs sharing the same history as Morrison are tarred with the same brush. Could they ever be trusted?

  18. Casino
    I considered it and gave you my considered response. What ‘harm’ is caused by calling Chicommies ‘Chicommies’. Is it up there with genocide of the Uighers or trashing democratic freedoms for example?

  19. We are told we are super duper short of workers, so you’d think pay would go up and yet…The June quarter figures will show wages rose at an annual rate of about 2.7% …….. yep, backwards . Shortage my arse. Meanwhile no ‘shortage’ here, corporate profits are going gang busters so the ‘desperate labor shortage’ doesn’t seem to be stopping them going KA-CHING !

  20. So since being dumped as PM, it seems Morrison has stopped doing his job as an MP.

    Not that we hadn’t guessed that already.

    Cam Reddin

    .@Kieran_Gilbert asked former Prime Minister Scott Morrison whether he wished to respond to today’s revelations & PM Albanese.

    Mr Morrison said — “No, haven’t seen what he has said. Since leaving the job I haven’t engaged in any day to day politics”. @SkyNewsAust #auspol
    12:21 PM · Aug 15, 2022

    The Guardian blog

  21. Bennelong Lurker @ #2053 Monday, August 15th, 2022 – 2:18 pm

    re Lake Garda:

    Daughter and son-in-law have a holiday home in the hills above the northern part of Lake Garda. So far these summer (school) holidays the family has not gone down to it, partly because of the water situation in the area and partly because in the prevailing European heat it is cooler (but not cool) to stay in the alpine area of Bavaria in a 17th century stone house.

    Itza, as an aside on European heat, you might be interested to know daughter and son-in-law went to the opening performance of Lohengrin in Bayreuth the week before last. The temperature was 37C, making conditions in the theatre for both audience and performers “interesting”.

    Edit: punctuation and spelling

    I posted a response, but it was subject to the daily need to re-log in I think.

    I can imagine how hot. We were there in a ‘normal’ summer, and it was hot enough. They would have heard Klaus Florian Vogt I think; we heard his Lohengrin there. I see below you’ve posted they thought not so highly of him. It’s a strange voice: he doesn’t record well, but he can float an other-worldly almost head voice of unearthly beauty, so the ‘In fernem land’ was this exquisitely beautiful coming from nowhere but everywhere angelic sound, transfixing 2000 people in absolute stillness and silence, one of (if not the most beautiful) things I’ve ever heard (sweeping statement I know, but really)

    Far and away, unapproachable to your steps
    There is a castle called Montsalvat;
    In the middle there stands a luminous temple,
    As precious as nothing else on earth is known.

  22. When I want a short efficient way of referring to the political party running the PRC (despite the Chinese people never having freely voted for it), I use its initials CCP.

  23. Todays Morrison saga has been a great deflection away from Chalmers’ disgusting stage 3 tax cuts.

    The heat will return in due course…

  24. a rsays:
    Monday, August 15, 2022 at 3:48 pm

    Barney in Cherating @ #2123 Monday, August 15th, 2022 – 3:39 pm

    duel citizenship debate a few years ago.

    Pistols at 20 paces, and the victor gains automatic citizenship?

    😆

    I’ve recently been reading about the Burr-Hamilton duel.

    Bloody spellchecker! 😆

  25. Tom the first and bestsays:
    Monday, August 15, 2022 at 3:54 pm

    When I want a short efficient way of referring to the political party running the PRC (despite the Chinese people never having freely voted for it), I use its initials CCP.

    That’s certainly a lot clearer.

  26. BW@ 3.51pm
    I don’t believe your response was a consideration I read it as a justification. A consideration is a kindness, a considered response in defence of ones point of view is something else entirely.

  27. B.S. Fairmansays:
    Monday, August 15, 2022 at 4:00 pm

    https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/anthony-albanese-seeks-legal-advice-after-scott-morrison-bombshell/news-story/b7fde06cc8f0862b518493becad11b3b

    ScoMo says “I don’t engage in Day to day politics anymore”. Is he not still the member for Cook?
    If he no longer wishes to be in politics, he should write a letter to the speaker.

    But that would involve him doing his job. 🙂

  28. Again I’m reminded of the idiom that “it’s not the crime but the coverup” that again holds true in today’s revelations about Morrison’s acts of secrecy.

  29. If there’s no derogatory or offensive intent in using the term ‘Chicommies’ it shouldn’t be a problem to instead use ‘CCP’ if the former is upsetting for others.

  30. Tom the first and bestsays:
    Monday, August 15, 2022 at 3:54 pm

    The Chinese Communist Party has just under 100 million members and is growing.

    Ten years ago our tour guide said it very hard to join and any “blemish” in you family history was enough to be rejected.

    The membership is their electoral college and the centre of authority. Will it survive. Who knows.

  31. Barney – I hadn’t considered that.

    Watching ABC24 atm, Pitt was not saying much but Bridget McKenzie is not holding much back and is “very concerned” about the situation.

  32. Itza:

    Yes, it was Klaus Florian Vogt. Camilla Nyland was Elsa.

    I wonder how much their assessment was clouded by the conditions or whether those conditions made the soloists’ task so much more challenging and the performances therefore flagged a little.
    I felt sorry for the audience, but more so for the cast. If the audience was less than usually uncomfortable, this might well have translated to the performers.
    On a different note, D and S-i-l hopped over the border to the Salzburg Festival a couple of weeks ago to hear a concert by Igor Levit which apparently was excellent.

  33. “ Asha @ #1263 Monday, August 15th, 2022 – 3:22 pm

    Dear PBrs,
    I ask that you consider restraint from using the term Chicommies. It reminds me of growing up hearing words like ‘Chinaman’, and worse, or even more depressingly reading them in the press. Could you consider the Chinese government or the Chinese communist party or somesuch instead? I am not demanding just requesting a consideration.
    Agreed.
    +1”

    _____

    This is absurd. ChiComms they are. ChiComms they will continue to be referred to.

  34. Chronus

    “Again I’m reminded of the idiom that “it’s not the crime but the coverup” that again holds true in today’s revelations about Morrison’s acts of secrecy.”

    True. Though I wouldn’t underestimate Morrison’s potential for crime. Federal ICAC please. Holding lots of secret power is a temptation. What are the odds Scomo gave in to temptation?

    On happier news I was just reading this article about key policy shifts Chris Bowen agreed on Friday regarding renewable energy. Great to see. Pity this didn’t get more media coverage at the time.
    https://reneweconomy.com.au/relief-as-ministers-reset-energy-future-and-bury-coalitions-technology-neutral-sham/

  35. Socrates

    “ On happier news I was just reading this article about key policy shifts Chris Bowen agreed on Friday regarding renewable energy. Great to see. Pity this didn’t get more media coverage at the time.
    https://reneweconomy.com.au/relief-as-ministers-reset-energy-future-and-bury-coalitions-technology-neutral-sham/”

    Agreed, important steps that will provide a strong foundation for the growth of renewables, the supply of necessary infrastructure and the demise of coal.

  36. ‘Casino Car Park says:
    Monday, August 15, 2022 at 4:01 pm

    BW@ 3.51pm
    I don’t believe your response was a consideration I read it as a justification. A consideration is a kindness, a considered response in defence of ones point of view is something else entirely.’
    ———————————————————–
    I do wish you would stop talking in tongues. Just why does ‘Chicommie’ get up your nose?

  37. Whoops! Me @ 4.17.

    Having a bad day. Will stop posting after this
    .
    if the audience was less than usually uncomfortable should be : if the audience was less than usually comfortable.

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