With the flood of post-election analysis having subsided and opinion polling yet to properly crank up again (expect that to change when parliament resumes next week), there is not a lot to report. Roy Morgan’s weekly video update last week informed us that Labor leads 53.5-46.5 in its latest round of polling, out from 53-47 the last time it offered a full set of results in the middle of last month, but it didn’t deem fit to offer anything further. The international leadership approval tracking poll by Morning Consult suggests Anthony Albanese’s standing has continued to improve, his approval having cracked 60% and disapproval down to 24%, which compares with 57% and 26% when I last reported on it three weeks ago.
I do have another new entry to relate from the burgeoning field of online psephological tools, courtesy of Alex Jago and Ben Messenger, providing a triangular representation of the increasingly common occurrence of three-cornered contests between Labor, the Coalition and the Greens. This can just as easily be adapted to any combination of three parties or candidates you care to choose, as long as you have a reasonable handle on how preferences are likely to flow between them.
The starting point here is each party’s share of the vote at the second last preference count, to be identified henceforth as 3CP, or three-candidate preferred. The tool’s default preference splits are 80-20 against the Coalition when Labor or the Greens are excluded, roughly consistent with all past experience, and 70-30 in favour of Labor when the Coalition is excluded, which is about what happens when Coalition preferences are so directed. On the last relevant occasion I can think of when they went the other way, when Adam Bandt first sought re-election in Melbourne in 2010, they favoured the Greens 80-20. Happily, the tool allows you to set the splits however you desire.
To explain what’s going on here, I’ll stick with the defaults. The Coalition 3CP is on the x-axis, the Greens are on the y-axis, and the balance belongs to Labor. On the left we see the 3CP needed by the Greens to defeat Labor when the Coalition is uncompetitive, starting at 50% where the Coalition has no votes at all. At this end of the triangle, the dividing line between a Greens win and a Labor win is broken into three parts. As the Coalition’s 3CP increases from nothing to 29%, the Greens’ required 3CP falls gently from 50% to 42% while Labor’s falls sharply from 50% to 30%, reflecting Labor’s higher share of Coalition preferences.
Once the Coalition gets to 30%, they reach the point where they might make the final count in a race where both Labor and the Greens are competitive, without being competitive themselves. Such was the case in Brisbane and Macnamara at the May election, which is why the AEC conducted indicative 3CP counts to provide an early indication of who would ultimately win there out of Labor and the Greens. As this presents the Greens with a new winning scenario where Labor runs third, here their minimum winning 3CP quickly falls from from 42% to 34%. But once the Coalition 3CP is significantly over a third, there is no longer enough left over for both the Greens and Labor to be competitive. Here the 3CP needed by either reduces from 34% to 29% as the Coalition 3CP increases from 34% to 44%.
With the Coalition only receiving 20% of preferences, they need fully 45% on 3CP to be in contention themselves. Even here they only make it if the remainder splits about evenly between Labor and the Greens, since the preferences they receive diminish together with the 3CP of whoever out of Labor and the Greens drops out. From that point on, the Coalition’s chances steadily increase to 100% where their 3CP reaches 50%, at which point they win before Labor or the Greens are excluded.
… of course if it was a true cliff, there would have been no reason to shoot him afterwards.
I don’t think Mr Moses SC has been to Henley Beach….
What’s the point of universities? There’s an answer in this comic. (Mathematics isn’t science or any other exploration pursued by universities but the answer is the same.)
https://existentialcomics.com/comic/449
Outsidersays:
Monday, July 25, 2022 at 3:12 pm
Yep, many of the metro beaches have cliff faces because of an early love of building roads and houses on the primary dune.
The Teal Gazette is at it again. Senator Lambie and the non-king making Greens senators may beg to differ:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/25/david-pocock-calls-for-climate-trigger-in-emissions-legislation-ahead-of-new-parliament-opening
Late Riser:
Monday, July 25, 2022 at 3:17 pm
I like the kid’s chutzpah.
I haven’t touched algebra since leaving school in ’64. And I would have been better off if I had done home economics rather than woodwork, metalwork & tech drawing.
Mavis: Indeed. You might enjoy the comic artist’s opening drawing. It’s a rather lengthy discourse on the meaning of life.
https://existentialcomics.com/comic/1
It’s a pity he can’t be put on casual rates, paid only when he condecends to turn up. Still, he is collecting a motza as a former PM so a backbencher’s salary is more like icing on the cake.
Perhaps he is checking out ‘positions vacant’ at US megachurches.
https://churchanswers.com/blog/mega-pastoral-vacancies-in-megachurches/
Mr Morrison will be in Japan this week.
https://www.scottmorrisonmp.com.au/news/statement-regarding-parliamentary-sittings-26-28-july-2022/
Why is Bill Shorten appeasing he likes of Deves and Lyle Shelton …?
”[Morrison] never answered questions as PM. So nothing has changed as a backbencher.”
Except that no one will bother asking questions…
Late Riser
I Googled up international events in Tokyo and in July there were these items. SfM doesn’t seen to fit any of them . Perhaps the bakery one as he plans on branching out from his curries ?
.
International Conference on Science, Technology…
Tue 26 – Wed 27 July
Tokyo Tokyo, Japan
.
International Conference on Medical & Health Science
Fri 26 – Sat 27 Aug
Kadoya Hotel, 1 Chome-23-1 Nishishinjuku
Shinjuku City, Tokyo, Japan
.
Japan Bakery Show
Wed 27 – Fri 29 July
Tokyo Big Sight, 3 Chome-11-1 Ariake
Koto City, Tokyo, Japan
Rex
Only in Adam Bandt’s mind.
Someone’s flogging him a second-hand Soryu?
Morrison is talking like he is still PM and representing the Australian Govt… Presenting at international conferences on Aukus and the region, giving his condolences to Japan etc ….. Needs to be reminded he is just the member for Cooke now, nothing more
Rex Douglas at 3:50 pm
Odds on the notion of rebranding mothers as ‘birthing parent’ sounding a bit silly is a lot more mainstream than Lyle.
I think Bowen will fall into line re Pocock’s trigger being legislated with the 43%.
Seems the Teal have been working on Plibersek backing a trigger as well.
Scott Morrison will head to Tokyo to address an “international event” with other former leaders.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/scott-morrison-ditches-parliament-for-trip-to-tokyo/news-story/a3ee68f0071b4ad4a664020ab08f1d59?amp
poroti @ #2016 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 4:00 pm
I would think ‘birthing parent’ is no big deal to the mainstream. Seems appropriate to me.
Griff,
Oh, I see that completely. I think in my field, medical research, it’s inevitable that you move away from individual variation to an organisational one. There will always be the demand for the research into diagnostics and treatment that require intensive resources, mainy by the public via the Government. To solve those problems, professional researchers are often required, and in situations like rare diseases private funding is limited or variable, and problems of scale matter.
Implementing it correctly is very difficult though.
Rex
The mainstream already has names for people that give birth and Adam Bandt is getting triggered over nothing.
People were jealous of Musk before, now he’s been proven to be a legendary pants man as well it’s gone to a new level. 🙂
Late Riser says:
Monday, July 25, 2022 at 3:36 pm
Mavis: Indeed. You might enjoy the comic artist’s opening drawing. It’s a rather lengthy discourse on the meaning of life.
https://existentialcomics.com/comic/1
__________________________________________________________
Thanks for posting that link Late Riser. It was an interesting and funny little piece on the meaning of life and what is life.
As a child I sometimes wondered if what I thought was the real world was really just a dream (a la The Matrix). I became quite obsessed at one point, feeling there was no way I could test such a hypothesis, because there was no other known “reality” I could test it against.
I later also wondered if, like the character in the comic, we all literally perished every few minutes, with a copy of ourselves carrying our memories.
Richard Dawkins says that what we regard as our selves is really a “society of memes”. I take it he means “we” are just a collection of thoughts and memories transmitted in a sort of block chain via our brain cells. But Dawkins added that because humans experience such processes as if they are individual personalities, then we might as well behave and treat ourselves as if we were.
Engaging with any culture war fodder has no upside for this ALP government, so it’s good to see them sidestep getting bogged down on that kind of stuff. Having an NDIS that is properly funded and working for those who need it matters. Alternative terms for ‘mother’ not so much.
Jackol @ #2024 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 4:14 pm
Shorten engaged in the war by changing the wording back.
He should have left it alone and not engaged.
Morrison’s press release on his Japan visit suggests he is going to be an annoyance to international relations. Still, the Japanese will doubtless be polite to him while treating him in a condescending manner.
Shorten capitulated to the mad religious right. No side-stepping that and it will stick with him.
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, July 25, 2022 at 4:18 pm
Shorten capitulated to the mad religious right. No side-stepping that and it will stick with him.
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Rex
Most people don’t use the birthing parent term for their female parent and for the small number that might they probably still use the mainstream word.
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, July 25, 2022 at 4:18 pm
Shorten capitulated to the mad religious right. No side-stepping that and it will stick with him.
______
It’s a strange thing. Shorten claims he did it to stop a ‘culture war’. Which he did by kind of initiating a ‘culture war’. I wonder if anyone would have heard of the trial if he had not stopped it. In any case, it was initiated under the previous government. Is he just trying to throw his weight around after being politically neutered in Victoria? Might be the start of him getting his mojo back.
SHP: We exist in the tension within. 😉 That is to say, that I tried to read about solipsism and after a while just gave up and accepted that “we might as well behave and treat ourselves as if we were.”
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, July 25, 2022 at 4:17 pm
Jackol @ #2024 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 4:14 pm
Engaging with any culture war fodder has no upside for this ALP government, so it’s good to see them sidestep getting bogged down on that kind of stuff. Having an NDIS that is properly funded and working for those who need it matters. Alternative terms for ‘mother’ not so much.
Shorten engaged in the war by changing the wording back.
He should have left it alone and not engaged.
________________________________________________________
Rex, I can’t help thinking you are trying to pick a fight with Bill Shorten, him never having been one of your favourite people. I agree with posters who state that getting into a fight with the religious right over “birthing parent” is a fight not worth having.
The medical form in question still allows people to call themselves that, if they so wish, but also allows parents of all types to call themselves what they are used to. In other words, it doesn’t matter.
Save your energy for a fight worth having.
nath @ #2029 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 4:21 pm
The last thing Albo needs right now is Bill Shorten aligning with Deves and religious crackpots.
Sir Henry Parkes @ #2031 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 4:26 pm
All I’m questioning is why he felt the need to intervene.
Rex
Shorten is not aligning with Deves and religious crackpots because people can still use birthing parent if they choose.
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, July 25, 2022 at 4:06 pm
poroti @ #2016 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 4:00 pm
Rex Douglas at 3:50 pm
Odds on the notion of rebranding mothers as ‘birthing parent’ sounding a bit silly is a lot more mainstream than Lyle.
I would think ‘birthing parent’ is no big deal to the mainstream. Seems appropriate to me.
Is the mother the supplier of the egg or the female birthing parent?
Birthing parent is explicate in what is being recorded.
Then there is surrogate mothers. Birthing parent also sorts that out.
The farther has always been the socially accepted male, wrong in about 4% of the cases.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2005/aug/11/childrensservices.uknews
If artificial insemination is the farther the supplier of the sperm or the male taking care of the child?
Birthing parent is the correct term in my view.
Is Shorten trying to woo sections of the SDA …?
Late Riser says:
Monday, July 25, 2022 at 4:22 pm
SHP: We exist in the tension within. That is to say, that I tried to read about solipsism and after a while just gave up and accepted that “we might as well behave and treat ourselves as if we were.”
___________________________________________________________
Thanks for the reply Late Riser. If life were just a dream, why would I imagine someone replying with a word I did not use or indeed imagine?
I promise to now stop posting about this esoteric subject, lest others wonder whether Labor is truly in government.
WSJ, a Murdoch paper, has published a story about Musk (that may not be true).
Looks like the shorts are getting a little desperate.
The whole ‘birthing parent vs mother on the form seems like a non-issue to me.
The argument against it is that ‘anyone giving birth is a mother, regardless of how they self identify’. Which allows for some great identity/culture wars from the right, but is hardly helpful for the smooth operation of a hospital.
But, the thing is it’s a sensible way to label forms regardless of your views on trans people and their identity.
Consider what the second half of the form will say in the case of a lesbian couple?
Mother and mother? That’s hardly helpful to a hospital, to be told that ‘one of the two mothers has a penicillin allergy’
Mother and non-birthing partner? Feels like you’re tying yourself in linguistic knots purely for the purpose of being a jerk to the non-birthing mother.
Mother and father? We’ve past this point a few decades ago… Come on.
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, July 25, 2022 at 4:32 pm
Is Shorten trying to woo sections of the SDA …?
___________________________________________________________
No!
Gay couples often have one person be the female and one the male.
Cronus @ #1970 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 1:56 pm
I’m not sure it’s been established that Elon needs much time at all to make these things happen. 🙂
Rex
Its not unusual for new ministers to make changes to forms issued by their departments and that’s why it would be good if we had permanent departments.
I am looking forward to a Labor Government delivering a polite and courteous parliament tomorrow.
Every day for past 3 yrs, @LiberalVictoria & media cheerleaders (@theheraldsun @theage @3AW693 @abcnews) have relentless bashed VIC.
Spread misinformation & disinformation about the economy & way of life.
Victoria is best-performing state: CommSec
https://t.co/yRDTxyIoJb
Mexicanbeemer @ #2043 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 4:44 pm
Can’t rule out Shorten tactics trying to get back in the game….
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, July 25, 2022 at 4:32 pm
Is Shorten trying to woo sections of the SDA …?
______
Not a bad question. They are the only other force on the Vic Right apart from the Cons that could restore him to a position of power and influence that he was accustomed to.
I understand there is some discussion on Brahmos missile. It got its name from 2 rivers in India and Russia, Brahmaputra and Moskva. But there is another powerful weapon mentioned in Hindu Vedas, Upanishads and Epics called Brahmastra.
The Brahmashirsha astra was a weapon that was said to be able to destroy the world, capable of destroying creation and vanquishing all beings. It is one of the most destructive, powerful, and irresistible weapons mentioned in Hinduism. These weapons are all created by Lord Brahma.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brahmastra
The Indies will get three questions per QT. I am not sure how they will arrange the queue. Katter, Wilkie and Haines should be first cabs off the rank tomorrow…then Steggall would be first on day two… not sure how tge 6 Teals arrange it after that. I assume that on the numbers the Greens would get a question two days out of three… the rest would go fifty fifty oppos and gubbies. Of interest will be whether Ministers filibuster their full tme allocation for each question
I am hoping the Oppos go the FMD attack tomorrow. Labor would politely skewer them.
Late Risersays:
Monday, July 25, 2022 at 3:17 pm
What’s the point of universities? There’s an answer in this comic. (Mathematics isn’t science or any other exploration pursued by universities but the answer is the same.)
https://existentialcomics.com/comic/449
————–
In any event it appears they no longer teach spelling in universities and cartoon school