With the flood of post-election analysis having subsided and opinion polling yet to properly crank up again (expect that to change when parliament resumes next week), there is not a lot to report. Roy Morgan’s weekly video update last week informed us that Labor leads 53.5-46.5 in its latest round of polling, out from 53-47 the last time it offered a full set of results in the middle of last month, but it didn’t deem fit to offer anything further. The international leadership approval tracking poll by Morning Consult suggests Anthony Albanese’s standing has continued to improve, his approval having cracked 60% and disapproval down to 24%, which compares with 57% and 26% when I last reported on it three weeks ago.
I do have another new entry to relate from the burgeoning field of online psephological tools, courtesy of Alex Jago and Ben Messenger, providing a triangular representation of the increasingly common occurrence of three-cornered contests between Labor, the Coalition and the Greens. This can just as easily be adapted to any combination of three parties or candidates you care to choose, as long as you have a reasonable handle on how preferences are likely to flow between them.
The starting point here is each party’s share of the vote at the second last preference count, to be identified henceforth as 3CP, or three-candidate preferred. The tool’s default preference splits are 80-20 against the Coalition when Labor or the Greens are excluded, roughly consistent with all past experience, and 70-30 in favour of Labor when the Coalition is excluded, which is about what happens when Coalition preferences are so directed. On the last relevant occasion I can think of when they went the other way, when Adam Bandt first sought re-election in Melbourne in 2010, they favoured the Greens 80-20. Happily, the tool allows you to set the splits however you desire.
To explain what’s going on here, I’ll stick with the defaults. The Coalition 3CP is on the x-axis, the Greens are on the y-axis, and the balance belongs to Labor. On the left we see the 3CP needed by the Greens to defeat Labor when the Coalition is uncompetitive, starting at 50% where the Coalition has no votes at all. At this end of the triangle, the dividing line between a Greens win and a Labor win is broken into three parts. As the Coalition’s 3CP increases from nothing to 29%, the Greens’ required 3CP falls gently from 50% to 42% while Labor’s falls sharply from 50% to 30%, reflecting Labor’s higher share of Coalition preferences.
Once the Coalition gets to 30%, they reach the point where they might make the final count in a race where both Labor and the Greens are competitive, without being competitive themselves. Such was the case in Brisbane and Macnamara at the May election, which is why the AEC conducted indicative 3CP counts to provide an early indication of who would ultimately win there out of Labor and the Greens. As this presents the Greens with a new winning scenario where Labor runs third, here their minimum winning 3CP quickly falls from from 42% to 34%. But once the Coalition 3CP is significantly over a third, there is no longer enough left over for both the Greens and Labor to be competitive. Here the 3CP needed by either reduces from 34% to 29% as the Coalition 3CP increases from 34% to 44%.
With the Coalition only receiving 20% of preferences, they need fully 45% on 3CP to be in contention themselves. Even here they only make it if the remainder splits about evenly between Labor and the Greens, since the preferences they receive diminish together with the 3CP of whoever out of Labor and the Greens drops out. From that point on, the Coalition’s chances steadily increase to 100% where their 3CP reaches 50%, at which point they win before Labor or the Greens are excluded.
2,208 comments on “Bizarre pseph triangle (open thread)”
Socrates at 9.10 am & 2.17 pm Sat, Cat at 9.21 am, Oakeshott Country at 11.20 am & 7.31 pm all Sat
This is a long comment which answers a specific query from the previous open thread on Saturday. While it might appear as obscure as a submarine rumble, some of the anecdotes may be of interest.
Socrates, as you are always polite, here are primary source answers to your query about me, after an anecdote and recommendation, not for you as you hardly need it, but for general consumption. The delay replying is because I have been recovering very slowly from Covid. It got to our fire-shed two weeks ago last Sun. It’s the worst respiratory infection I’ve had, except for Moscow in March 1987.
I am known to William not only remotely, but in person. I last saw His Lordship nearly 6 years ago at an academic markers’ meeting, which I attended in a pro bono capacity as one of the few markers in the room who had examined many dozens of honours theses. We had a difference of opinion about the degree of excellence reflected in a dissertation by an exceptional student. She later became a lawyer, as many of the best students for some reason do. Our difference was expressed very politely and respectfully, such that it might be a model for differences of opinion in other public contexts.
The recommendation is this: before expressing angst about somebody else’s wayward belief, reflect briefly, and imagine yourself in possession of a smaller Palantir, while His Lordship has a bigger one. The reflective exercise is entirely voluntary, merely an imaginary interlude to allow you as the poster to reconsider your response to the wayward belief, to see if your response could be more respectful.
The Palantiri were invented by J.R.R. Tolkein. See: https://lotr.fandom.com/wiki/Palant%C3%ADri
My interlude in DFAT began, as a sort of contract historian not a permanent staffer, very soon after the East Timorese independence referendum held by the UN on 30 August 1999. Initially there was an air of chaos in the building, which changed once Interfet was transformed from what had been planned as a rescue operation for Aussies and other expatriates into a salvage operation for the right to self-determination in East Timor (very belatedly, from a historical viewpoint), particularly because of coordinated public pressure on the government to act for justice in that way. I recall a statement by the late Greg Urwin, Australia’s senior diplomat on the Pacific, who sadly died barely 9 years later. Having by 1999 been an Australian diplomat for nearly 30 years, Urwin said that he had never seen anything like it, an Australian government changing its foreign policy because of public pressure.
That is my most interesting DFAT anecdote. Another concerns my security vetting, which was done via a rather prolonged interview with a privatised agent, whose manner of questioning had nothing in common with that of Mark Tedeschi. One had to fill out a form listing wherever one had been in a foreign country. As I had been in Russia several times, including assisting dissident peace activists in 1985 and 1987, much to the annoyance of the KGB (leading to a mention in an article by John Hersey in The New Yorker on 7 September 1987), I duly listed the details, adding helpfully that any further questions might be directed to my Ph.D supervisor, who I said had worked in British intelligence, as it was known. That led to even more questions about my supervisor, as if his professional pedigree wasn’t enough itself. The poor privatised agent could not cope with complexity. Such is bureaucracy.
My background in assisting those resisting Russian repression goes back a long way, over 35 years. Together with Peter Christoff, editor of Four Degrees of Global Warming: Australia in a Hot World (2013) I created a little ginger group within the Australian peace movement in the late 1980s, called East-West Peace Links. We argued that progress towards achieving real peace required respect for human rights as well as diplomatic negotiations. Our approach was vindicated. Sadly, the diplomatic achievements of those years have mostly been lost. It is a long, complex and very tragic story, but to understand Russia today you must know that the rot started with Yeltsin, a drunkard supported by the West. After all, Yeltsin chose Putin to protect his family, because Putin was known to be corrupt.
I am one of a dozen or less people in Australia who are qualified to give a professional opinion about Putin and the tragic politics of Russia after Yeltsin and Kravchuk broke up the USSR in late 1991. On the day of Putin’s invasion, ANU put out a list of “experts on Ukraine and Russia” with 21 names, but in fact only one person there is an expert on Ukraine (Ukrainian literature), while the real experts on Russia include two active retirees (one a former diplomat and intelligence analyst), one expert on international relations and another expert on Central Asia, plus a historian and one Russian émigré, who is a specialist on North Korea. The field is small and has been little cultivated since Gorbachev, though long ago, until the late 1980s, ANU was viewed as an excellent place for study about Russia. The reason why I worked briefly at DFAT is that nobody was interested in my expertise on Russia, in 1999, when Putin as Prime Minister was already “blowing up Russia” to raise his hard nut profile (the quote is the title of a book by Yuri Felshtinsky and Aleksandr Litvinenko, whom Putin had poisoned in London).
If we could meet, I expect we would agree largely about this avoidable, fratricidal and terrible war, from its immorality and awful timing through to its geopolitics and the huge obstacles to ending it. We could start with the observation in March by Professor Marko Pavlyshyn, the doyen of Ukrainian studies in Australia, that by and large Ukrainian rhetoric has been forward-looking and presumes a civic not ethnic basis for nationalism, whereas official Russian rhetoric is nostalgic and fascist.
We may disagree about some key points, including the advice from that old war criminal Kissinger. An interview with Kissinger by Der Spiegel published a few days ago is at:
Don’t dismiss his opinion just because he is a war criminal who escaped justice (no repentance from him on that). Here’s a link to the contrasting views of Kissinger and Soros expressed at Davos in May:
Soros is no war criminal. His foundation once funded serious publications by Russian intellectuals in the lost decade of the 1990s, when Yeltsin was preparing the way for Putin. But Soros has no idea of how “to defeat Putin as soon as possible”, which he sees as the current US war aim. Kissinger at least knows this is an extremely difficult aim. He knows about war, as well as about crimes committed by those in power (for his alleged crimes see Christopher Hitchens, The Trial of Henry Kissinger, 2001).
Follow the links at that link and find the comments by Melinda Haring, a self-styled adviser to Biden about Ukraine. There is a chilling remark at the end where she agrees with a former US Ambassador to Russia, Alexander Vershbow, who says “the likelihood of Putin using nuclear weapons ‘is not zero but less than 5%’.” That is, odds about the same as a triple-vaccinated person getting long Covid. Harding thinks those odds are tolerable. That is the chilling part.
Then read these comments 6 weeks ago by Sergei Karaganov, one of the key belligerents in Russia:
He says “we are living under very dangerous circumstances. I would call it a prolonged Cuban missile crisis”. The difference is that there was limited communication during that crisis, and a back channel that was crucial to resolving it. The crisis would not have been resolved if Kennedy had given in to the stupid advice he received from the tough guys around him. Now there are barely negotiations. Note the ignorance of the Der Spiegel interviewer about how the Cuban missile crisis was resolved, when he says Khrushchev “ultimately gave in”. That’s a total falsehood. But Kissinger didn’t dispute it.
Why do I focus on the tragic mistake of Ukrainian nationalists on 21 February 2014 in pushing for a coup, not a constitutional removal of Yanukovich from power? Because it was a turning point, which created the context in which the criminal attack on MH17 occurred, 8 years ago last Sunday. When two friends met the AFP officers who handed them a few personal items of their daughter who died in that criminal attack, I was there and saw their pain, though I could hardly comprehend their pain.
Elsewhere, such as in Sri Lanka recently, it was justifiable and sensible to run murderous plunderers out of office ASAP, as their external backer (China) did not save them. In Ukraine in February 2014, with a murderous and resentful (as Kissinger notes) thug next door, care was needed, but lacking.
Even the US Ambassador to Russia at the time, Michael McFaul, has said Russia’s seizure of Crimea was “an impulsive move and a reaction to Yanukovych’s ouster, not something long-planned”. See:
Yet Putin grabbing Crimea was no surprise. In 2008 in the context of a NATO summit, Putin had been furious that NATO was keeping its door open to Ukraine and Georgia, and warned: “if Ukraine joins NATO it will do so without Crimea and the eastern regions”, because “it will simply fall apart”. See:
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1057/s41311-020-00235-7.pdf (p 384 of that article)
Those fighting Putin in Ukraine in 2022 had nearly 14 years to prepare for this awful war. It is not clear how, or when, the war will end. But the preparations for fighting Putin were very inadequate.
Former finance minister Rishi Sunak widened his lead in the latest round of voting Monday by Conservative MPs to decide Britain’s next prime minister, but the race to get in the final two tightened.
Sunak won the support of 115 Tory lawmakers, followed by Penny Mordaunt on 82 votes, Liz Truss on 71, Kemi Badenoch on 58 and Tom Tugendhat on 31, who drops out as the last-placed candidate, the party announced.
Mordaunt had been bookmakers’ favourite before the weekend, but lost votes from the previous round.
Very sad. But also very disturbing…
Dr Doolittle @ #1 Tuesday, July 19th, 2022 – 6:06 am
Thank you DrD. I don’t suppose your PhD supervisor was David Cornwall?
Morrison: “Succumbing to anxiety was “Satan’s plan”, he said.
“We cannot allow these anxieties to deny us that. That’s not His plan. That’s Satan’s plan.”
Is he advocating exorcism as a treatment for anxiety?
The delusion is strong in that one.
I also saw some video of Morrison giving that sermon, speechifying, whatever. He looked needy.
However, I wouldn’t count a loon like that out. He’s dangerous and manipulative and obviously remaining in parliament to plot his comeback.
I wish the electors of Cook God’s speed in eliminating him from future political calculations. 🙂
He says anxiety is not a mental health issue. Tell that to countless people who have suffered anxiety over the course of the last 2 years or so!
The man is a religious fanatic, and I think it speaks volumes that the article reached out to half a dozen sitting Liberal MPs, none of whom chose to comment. Not even his former colleagues are willing to defend his crazed rantings.
He’s clearly suffering relevance deprivation syndrome.
Dr Doolittle, very interesting post.
I suspect Prof Alexander Stubb would disagree with your analysis.
I found the whole series interesting.
“tragic mistake of Ukrainian nationalists on 21 February 2014 in pushing for a coup, not a constitutional removal of Yanukovich from power?”
An interesting comment.
Ukraine’s parliament voted on Saturday to remove President Viktor Yanukovich, who abandoned his Kiev office to protesters and denounced what he described as a coup after a week of fighting in the streets of the capital.
A vote in the parliament is not constitutional?
I’m with you, frednk. Dr Doolittle is possessed of the talent of silkily throwing out reference after reference in order to bamboozle the untermenschen. I don’t doubt his erudition but I do doubt his allegiance in the Russia-Ukraine War. He still hasn’t answered my question to him about, what is wrong with being a ‘Ukrainian Nationalist’? Also, cleaving to Kissinger and his positions, despite the long history and position of a man like that?
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Australia has suffered catastrophic losses of wildlife and habitat, according to the official five-year scorecard on the state of the environment, released on Tuesday, as leading scientists plead with the Albanese government to urgently ramp up protections to halt the escalating rate of extinction. This is the report the Coalition government received in December and refused to release before the election.
Laura Chung lays out the five graphics that explain the State of Environment Report. It is not pleasant reading.
This is Australia’s most important report on the environment’s deteriorating health. It’s authors, headed by Emma Thompson, present its grim findings.
Mike foley reckons Australia is more willing to catalogue destruction of natural heritage than to preserve it.
The environment and water minister, Tanya Plibersek, who will release the five-yearly report today at an address to the National Press Club, said it was a “shocking document” that told “a story of crisis and decline in Australia’s environment, and of a decade of government inaction and wilful ignorance”. “I won’t be putting my head in the sand,” she said. “Under Labor the environment is back on the priority list.”
The nation’s workers are being told to prepare for an even bigger fall in their after-inflation wages as Treasurer Jim Chalmers signals a “confronting” economic future that will force the government to find new ways to relieve supply chain issues across the country, says Shane Wright ahead of Jim Chalmers’ first update to parliament on the budget and economy since the election.
Inequality has worsened and the budget is shot, so means test everything, proposes Alan Kohler.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s political honeymoon draws to an end this week as Parliament resumes and Labor collides with the Greens over carbon emissions. Michael West on Albo’s first two months in office and the looming climate clash.
Other countries are steadily repaying government debt accumulated during the global financial crisis and the COVID pandemic. Australia should also, as Alan Austin reports.
If you want an example of the Australian media’s ingrained toxicity, the reporting of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s decision on Saturday to reinstate COVID payments to casual workers is a splendid one, writes Jennifer Wilson.
A ban on new light vehicles powered by fossil fuels risks driving up prices in the car market and leaving the ACT without access to popular vehicle types, including utes, industry bodies are saying.
The Andrews government is yet to sign off on a management plan to deal with conflict-of-interest questions around the new planning minister and her brother, reports Royce Millar.
Kate McClymont and Michaela Whitbourn tell us that former NSW Labor ministers Eddie Obeid, Joe Tripodi and Tony Kelly have been hit with criminal charges flowing from an ICAC investigation that found a “deceptive” cabinet submission was made to help an Obeid-related company secure a multimillion-dollar public-private partnership. Cop that fellas! Regardless of political colour, arseholes are arseholes.
With the guidance and backing of a whistleblower protection commissioner, the next generation of Australian whistleblowers will not have to pay the price so many others have paid for speaking up, writes Andrew Wilkie, who urges parliament to support a bill promised by Mark Dreyfus.
Australia administered its biggest week of COVID-19 vaccinations in five months after eligibility was expanded last week.
Meanwhile, Australia’s peak medical body will investigate cutting the COVID-19 isolation requirements from seven days to five at the end of September when surging coronavirus cases are expected to subside.
Healthcare workers say they are struggling to care for patients with more than 8,500 medical staff across four states in Covid isolation as Omicron puts added pressure on the system, reports Cait Kelly.
It is possible that recent events related to flooding in New South Wales are galvanising a consensus on how we manage the threats floods pose. If that is so, we are on the verge of a phase shift in our management of floods, writes Chas Keys in a thoughtful contribution.
Scott Morrison has urged churchgoers not to trust in governments, warning it would be a mistake to do so based on his experience in the upper echelons of power. Trist God instead he said. “We trust in Him. We don’t trust in governments. We don’t trust in United Nations, thank goodness.” And THAT was our Prime Minister!
Was Scott Morrison thinking this all along? Conspiracy questions follow his Sunday sermon, writes James Robertson. Morrison’s office did not respond to questions about the meaning of his statements and whether he thought the United Nations undermined nations’ sovereignty.
According to Josh Gordon, gas levels at a Victorian plant are at dangerous lows, raising the prospect of another market intervention to shore up the supply of electricity.
Increasing immigration is not a substitute for training more Australians. But it’s what is needed now to alleviate the crippling migrant-deprived tightness of the labour market, argues the AFR’s editorial.
The house price downturn has doubled in magnitude over the three months to June as a reversal which began in Melbourne and Sydney spreads to Brisbane, Canberra and Hobart, explains James Kirby.
“By the next election, Australians should know whether Labor is a safe pair of hands. But what would it take to deliver a truly superior economic performance?”, asks Richard Holden in quite an interesting contribution.
The Nobel prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz has called for a windfall profits tax, arguing the idea is a “no-brainer” that has been taken off the table due to the influence of big companies. Stiglitz made the comments to reporters during a tour of Australia after personally lobbying the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, to introduce the tax and warning that excessive interest rate rises could push Europe, the US, and then Australia into recession.
The raucous opponents of the Albanese government resetting the relationship with China are playing a dangerous game with Australia’s foreign policy and ambitions for a peaceful, prosperous and stable region, says Craig Emerson.
Tony Abbott, as prime minister nearly a decade ago, had more than a few bees under his bonnet. He thought his election had redeemed the nation from an intolerable scourge of a government of criminals. Other opposition leaders have engaged in this sort of hyperbole, but scarcely ever with the zeal and lack of restraint, of Abbott, opines Jack Waterford.
War veteran Ben Roberts-Smith is entitled to the presumption of innocence but was effectively convicted of war crimes by three newspapers without a criminal trial, his barrister has told the Federal Court at the close of his defamation case, writes Michaela Whitbourn. But, she says, Nicholas Owens, SC, acting for the newspapers, said the judge presiding over the trial, Justice Anthony Besanko, was “confronted with a dilemma, which is: someone is lying”.
Welsh nurse Ariana Evans applied to work at St Vincent’s Hospital Sydney after seeing the advertising campaign linked to Nurses Down Under, but many others were turned off by lengthy delays for visas, reports Angus Thompson.
Elizabeth Knight looks at the booby traps hidden in ANZ’s deal to buy Suncorp Bank. She says the mother of all obstacles is the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, which, unlike the Queensland government, has a rusted-on philosophy that the big four banks should not be able to buy their way to an even larger market share.
Whitehaven, one of Australia’s largest coal miners, has flagged a record $3 billion annual profit as global demand drives sky-high prices for the fossil fuel and the company’s production rebounded in the June quarter.
The Clean Energy Council chief executive Kane Thornton has said Australia needs to accelerate its investment in wind, solar and storage to end the over-reliance on coal and gas.
Independent MPs have outlined a list of measures they want included as part of a beefed-up climate change bill, including a “Dutton insurance” policy that would make it more difficult for future governments to shy away from climate action, reports Sarah Martin.
Climate action is fighting back against big polluters. We don’t need to end Australia’s climate wars – we need to win them, urges Jeff Sparrow.
The SMH editorial says that Australia must not let Sri Lanka fall further into the mire.
The hot, dry weather that has scorched mainland Europe for the past week moved north, buckling rail lines and forcing two airports to close their runways.
Stephen Bartholomeusz tells us how a flatlining China’s economy has been crippled by its zero-COVID policies.
Joe Biden is a total disaster that only Trump could help, declares Greg Sheridan.
Deleted Secret Service texts sent on 6 January, the day of the insurrection at the US Capitol, and the day before will be released by today to the House committee investigating the failed attempt by supporters of Donald Trump to overturn the 2020 presidential election result, a panel member said.
The Jan 6 house committee’s prime-time hearing will offer the most compelling evidence yet of then-President Donald Trump’s “dereliction of duty” on the day of the January 6 insurrection, with new witnesses detailing his failure to stem an angry mob storming the Capitol, committee members say. We can see thin early Friday morning, Australian time.
Police are investigating the death of a six-year-old girl from suspected malnutrition in Adelaide’s north, with authorities removing five other children for alleged criminal neglect. It is understood the children were living with their mother, with their father currently imprisoned on domestic violence related offences. “Arseholes of the Week” nomination, for sure.
Glen Le Lievre
Spooner never lets up!
From the US
The State of the Environment Report really does highlight just how bad the coalition govt was for this country. On every measure they have utterly failed the national interest.
He still hasn’t answered my question to him about, what is wrong with being a ‘Ukrainian Nationalist’?
Ukrainian nationalist’ is synonymous with ‘Nazi’ in the Russian propaganda lexicon and destroying it ultimately ‘justifies’ genocide.
What they call de-Natzification is the Russification of Ukraine which can only be achieved with the destruction of the Ukrainian people, language and culture.
Thank you for that video, frednk. Pretty much as I suspected. Putin appears functionally unable to comprehend the evolution of the history of a country, its aims and aspirations, preferring instead devolution to the past. A common mistake old men make. 🙂
And therein lies the crux of the matter at the heart of the war, one old man, though very powerful, stuck in the past, and a younger man, Zelenskyy, with vision for the future of his nation.
It has ever been thus. The old and the young stags, clashing horns over territory, in a fight to the death or retreat of one or the other.
You know, I think that’s where Putin’s plans went off the rails. He thought of Zelenskyy as a clown, a comedian cum politician, who would be easy to outwit once battle was joined. However, it seems that Putin failed to factor in that Zelenskyy was also a law graduate, and that’s one thing that Dr Doolittle did say that made sense, that oftentimes the best and brightest study law. So it was, it seems, with Zelenskyy, who is proving a formidable foe. Even willing to eliminate a childhood friend who he believed was collaborating with the Russians. That is ruthless! And always on the job. And being younger his neurons are more supple and his thinking more flexible.
It’s also good to see President Biden has good, young advisers. They have really helped him counteract the Russian sympathisers on the Republican side in America. Though Tucker Carlson is the one to watch there.
Oh, and one last message for Dr Doolittle. Not all of the smartest kids in the room choose to do Law. I chose not to because, even though only 17, I could see that Law was also used by those very smart people to do harm to the world, as well as to do good and I decided I wanted to be no part of that group of people in society. Maybe I should have done it in order to fight the good fight but I was only 17 and probably just a shade too idealistic for my own good.
Rakali @ #13 Tuesday, July 19th, 2022 – 7:20 am
Exactly what they have been doing once they take territory. Change all the signage to Russian. Issue Russian passports. Pipe in Russian media. Take away the resisters and the women and children to Russia.
They did the same thing in Crimea in 2014. Used the minority of Russian sympathisers as a pretext for invasion.
Would not take any thing written buy Roise miller to seriously based in vick but had no concerns abbout tayler as energy minister responsible foor emitins reducgtion when his family were iragators yet joins on the attack on Blandthorn not suprising as he lead the attack in 2014 against the shoppies union foor aparently ripping off workers but when they took on 711 lost interest in the story
Tuesday, July 19, 2022 at 6:23 am
Very sad. But also very disturbing…
In the 50-minute address to the congregation, the member for Cook touched on the Coalition’s election defeat, telling the crowd he believed God had a plan for him.
“Do you believe that if you lose an election that God still loves you and has a plan for you?” I do. Because I still believe in miracles,” he said to applause from churchgoers.
For the majority of the sermon, he talked about anxiety, which he defined as everyday worries that the “oil of God” could assuage.
“All of this anxiousness, all of this anxiety … all of this feeling about the bills that are pouring in, all of this feeling about the anxiety, and then the oil of God, the ointment of God, comes on this situation and releases you, if you will have it, and receive His gift,” he said.
Succumbing to anxiety was “Satan’s plan”, he said.
“We cannot allow these anxieties to deny us that. That’s not His plan. That’s Satan’s plan.”’
Dr dolittle have no dought your great knolidge with dofat but you seem to forget that Yanocovitch was along time puton allie in 2004 the orange revelution happind after disbuted elections and the article cat poasted Bbout yanucovitchs ceruptionseemed to show that he did not have the best interests of ucrane puton has alllways favered a return to the soviet unionas his faverite time was his kgb service
Morning all. BK thanks as always for the roundup.
Whether they call it a Ukraine war levy or a tax, we need to tax industries making super profits thanks to covid and the Ukraine war.
Kyle Cheney @ kyledcheney
UPDATE: All 22 prospective jurors have been selected in Bannon’s trial. Tomorrow AM the parties will whittle the list down to 14 and begin opening arguments. DOJ predicts the trial will be done this week.
A popular UK airport suspended all of its flights for nearly three hours today after the tarmac melted in boiling temperatures.
Luton Airport, which has one runway, is used by airlines including EasyJet, Wizz Air, Ryanair and TUI as temperatures in Luton have reached 36C today.
Aaron newton @ #18 Tuesday, July 19th, 2022 – 7:56 am
What can smug Australians teach the UK about surviving a heatwave? — First Dog on the Moon
Greg Sheridan may need to revise his assessment of Biden. By the end of the year, Biden’s fortunes will be changing for the better.
I’m just about to head off to the city to participate in a round table conference with the Aged Care Quality and Safety Commission.
Could be interesting!
Have a nice day, Bludgers!
Rolling Stone @RollingStone
EXCLUSIVE: When Donald Trump formally declares his 2024 candidacy, he won’t just be running for another term in the White House. He’ll be running away from legal troubles, possible criminal charges, and even the specter of prison time.
In recent months, Trump has made clear to associates that the legal protections of occupying the Oval Office are front-of-mind for him, four people with knowledge of the situation tell Rolling Stone.
Bright sun and two-note birds,
call to the thin, hesitant, spectral clouds,
as five distant shapes fly past.
“ I’m with you, frednk. Dr Doolittle is possessed of the talent of silkily throwing out reference after reference in order to bamboozle the untermenschen. I don’t doubt his erudition but I do doubt his allegiance in the Russia-Ukraine War. He still hasn’t answered my question to him about, what is wrong with being a ‘Ukrainian Nationalist’? Also, cleaving to Kissinger and his positions, despite the long history and position of a man like that?”
To a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
Runway melts at London Luton airport has temperatures in UK near 40C
One of London’s busiest airports was forced to close after the sweltering heat in the UK melted part of its runway.
‘The runway has melted’: The British summer is so hot that the Air Force has been forced to cancel flights on a major military base
Thanks so much BK
[James] Webb [Space Telescope] Images of Jupiter and More Now Available In Commissioning Data
Given the Commonwealth government (regardless of which party runs it) continues to hold that 5% of the population working less than one hour per week (excepting the highly anomalous current situation) is a structural necessity for the operation of the Australian economy, it is repulsive that our society has such an under resourced, impoverishing, punitive so-called social ‘security’ system.
The labour movement has good reason for satisfaction in establishing a functioning, supportive safety net. What remains is a tattered, worn remnant.
Monbiot nails it.
Why are polling companies reluctant to poll Peter Dutton’s approval ratings? He has been Leader of the Opposition for almost as long as Albanese has been PM.
One can only presume that commercial interests are keen to protect the Coalition from further destabilisation due to dire leader poll numbers.
re scotty from hillsong, has anyone checked his twitter feed? Has he made a chook shed or baked a
curry since losing office? I feel a (medical) intervention is in order!
Jan 6 @ #33 Tuesday, July 19th, 2022 – 9:11 am
But! But! Kim Kardashian and Pete Davidson! Donald Trump doing his happy dance! Steve Bannon with 3 shirts on!
Aided and abetted by the Fossil Fuel shills in governments around the world.
Today feels disordered, unsettled. On two of my least enjoyable interests:
(1) When Trump claims he’s trying to be president in 2024(5), he’s dreaming or conning his followers.
(2) Mr Morrison preacher man is showing us desperation, self-pity, and not a little bewilderment.
On the bright side, we have Tanya Plibersek as our Environment Minister and not Sussan Ley.
There is a point in time at which is it obvious that a politician no longer has a career in politics. Sometimes it involves an historical photo involving a goat and a tub of butter, in other cases it’s something they’ve said.
In the case of the ex-pm his sermon on the weekend pretty much seals the lid on any chance he ever had of another run at political leadership and to be honest any seat in a corporate boardroom for any larger public company.
Without meaning to insult anyone’s core beliefs but fruit loops is what comes to mind after the first 10 seconds of listening, along with “how did that guy every get to be the PM?”
C@tmomma @ #36 Tuesday, July 19th, 2022 – 8:52 am
He gets tiring sometimes but in this, his prose is top notch and expresses a fitting level of anger and contempt.
He also explains well the difference between the public doing little things (tokenism) and public social tipping points needed to force corporate, media and political level change. For too long real change has been green washed away with small level tokenism – shifting the blame to individuals who dont recycle (as annoying as those people are) or dont buy EVs which avoids scrutiny of the big players not doing what they must do. People must vote for real change, they must accept the costs and accept the efforts made to share the costs equitably. The media must stop jumping up and down when these costs are encountered with little or no comparisons to the costs that will be incurred otherwise. And we must be ready to join like minded countries to tax imports from the countries that refuse to join the push to eliminate carbon emissions.
Hey, does anyone else remember all of the screeching about the ‘demotion’ of Tanya Plibersek?
Oh dear. Peter Hartcher blows Pi’s stout defense of China’s lending practices vis a vis the IMF, clean out of the water today.
Too bad, Pi. So sad. You might have to admit you aren’t infallible, after all. For once.
petrol prices, fcs! The time has long since passed when we bend the knee in a policy sense to maintaining cheap petrol in this nation. And it is cheap in comparison to many other countries.
Sure it’s a ‘Big Country’ and people need to travel long distances to work and use work vehicles but it’s long overdue for us to stop catering to them. Pay the price of your lifestyle choice. Or get rid of your gas guzzler and buy an EV!
From The Grauniad’s ‘Britain in the Heatwave’ pics
Woodhead Reservoir in North Derbyshire .. we were talking about the old Woodhead Railway Line a few weeks back, the old track bed ran between the two stands of trees just past the far bank and ran on top of the structural feature top middle of the pic 🙂
Travelling from left to right across the road bridge is heading West towards Manchester and away from Barnsley
Morrison’s right in one respect when claiming governments can’t be trusted: the Morrison Government, without a doubt. Maybe he’s setting up a mental health defence resulting from his skulduggery?
Other than Horizon, Hillsong & Maggie’s followers, no one will hereafter take Morrison seriously. He’s really done his dash.
Not many other comments on it, but I for one greatly appreciate the link to the three-cornered-contest analyser. I think it will help greatly to make sense of the polling in three-cornered seats, at least where we have some sense of the preference flows.
It actually reminds me a bit of thermodynamic phase diagrams – with the existence of a Labor/Green/Coalition “triple point” and all.
Tuesday, July 19, 2022 at 9:53 am
petrol prices, fcs! ……
I saw $2.40 litre Melbourne southern suburb yesterday!
Dr John @ #48 Tuesday, July 19th, 2022 – 10:03 am
And that’s the price you have to pay right now. However, though some may decry it, it seems as though President Biden’s trip to Saudi Arabia has had a positive result and OPEC+ have agreed to open the oil spigots a bit more which will lead to cheaper prices for petrol down the road. Patience, grasshopper. 🙂