With the flood of post-election analysis having subsided and opinion polling yet to properly crank up again (expect that to change when parliament resumes next week), there is not a lot to report. Roy Morgan’s weekly video update last week informed us that Labor leads 53.5-46.5 in its latest round of polling, out from 53-47 the last time it offered a full set of results in the middle of last month, but it didn’t deem fit to offer anything further. The international leadership approval tracking poll by Morning Consult suggests Anthony Albanese’s standing has continued to improve, his approval having cracked 60% and disapproval down to 24%, which compares with 57% and 26% when I last reported on it three weeks ago.
I do have another new entry to relate from the burgeoning field of online psephological tools, courtesy of Alex Jago and Ben Messenger, providing a triangular representation of the increasingly common occurrence of three-cornered contests between Labor, the Coalition and the Greens. This can just as easily be adapted to any combination of three parties or candidates you care to choose, as long as you have a reasonable handle on how preferences are likely to flow between them.
The starting point here is each party’s share of the vote at the second last preference count, to be identified henceforth as 3CP, or three-candidate preferred. The tool’s default preference splits are 80-20 against the Coalition when Labor or the Greens are excluded, roughly consistent with all past experience, and 70-30 in favour of Labor when the Coalition is excluded, which is about what happens when Coalition preferences are so directed. On the last relevant occasion I can think of when they went the other way, when Adam Bandt first sought re-election in Melbourne in 2010, they favoured the Greens 80-20. Happily, the tool allows you to set the splits however you desire.
To explain what’s going on here, I’ll stick with the defaults. The Coalition 3CP is on the x-axis, the Greens are on the y-axis, and the balance belongs to Labor. On the left we see the 3CP needed by the Greens to defeat Labor when the Coalition is uncompetitive, starting at 50% where the Coalition has no votes at all. At this end of the triangle, the dividing line between a Greens win and a Labor win is broken into three parts. As the Coalition’s 3CP increases from nothing to 29%, the Greens’ required 3CP falls gently from 50% to 42% while Labor’s falls sharply from 50% to 30%, reflecting Labor’s higher share of Coalition preferences.
Once the Coalition gets to 30%, they reach the point where they might make the final count in a race where both Labor and the Greens are competitive, without being competitive themselves. Such was the case in Brisbane and Macnamara at the May election, which is why the AEC conducted indicative 3CP counts to provide an early indication of who would ultimately win there out of Labor and the Greens. As this presents the Greens with a new winning scenario where Labor runs third, here their minimum winning 3CP quickly falls from from 42% to 34%. But once the Coalition 3CP is significantly over a third, there is no longer enough left over for both the Greens and Labor to be competitive. Here the 3CP needed by either reduces from 34% to 29% as the Coalition 3CP increases from 34% to 44%.
With the Coalition only receiving 20% of preferences, they need fully 45% on 3CP to be in contention themselves. Even here they only make it if the remainder splits about evenly between Labor and the Greens, since the preferences they receive diminish together with the 3CP of whoever out of Labor and the Greens drops out. From that point on, the Coalition’s chances steadily increase to 100% where their 3CP reaches 50%, at which point they win before Labor or the Greens are excluded.
What peeves me most C@t is the reluctance of people in the regions and rurals. Climate change is gonna hurt them as much as anyone and far more than the loss of coal mining. And sure as anything when it does they will come with their hands out to save their farms, their towns and their way of life.
A couple of good seasons and the still dominant old ratbag element of the National Party has blinded them again.
But! We still need China and the US. The focus must be on us doing our bit then pressure on them through unity elsewhere (EU etc). I fear the US will be hamstrung or worse without international pressure.
Alpha Zero,
Ampol are heavily advertising their EV Chargers at their petrol stations. Slowly but surely the petrol pumps will be replaced. 🙂
”
Jan 6says:
Tuesday, July 19, 2022 at 9:11 am
Monbiot nails it.
This is not a passive silence. It is an active silence, a fierce commitment to distraction and irrelevance in the face of an existential crisis. It is a void assiduously filled with trivia and amusement, gossip and spectacle. Talk about anything, but not about this. But while the people who dominate the means of communication frantically avoid the subject, the planet speaks, in a roar becoming impossible to ignore. These days of atmospheric rage, these heatshocks and wildfires ignore the angry shushing and burst rudely into our silent retreat.
We have seen nothing yet.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/18/heatwave-extreme-weather-uk-climate-crisis
”
As per ‘Interstellar’ movie they think that Earth will become inhabitable by 2070. Hence, start looking for earth like planets on other side of Universe.
I know a lot of people would say it is just a Hollywood movie and Hollywood movies always exaggerate things. True.
But ‘these days of atmospheric rage, these heatshocks and wildfires’ are telling a different story we don’t like.
All these current wars may appear insignificant to future generations, who will face war from atmosphere, which the whole might of people of earth cannot resist.
Jan 6 @ #51 Tuesday, July 19th, 2022 – 10:08 am
Yes, there are a lot of fraying threads. However, it seems to me from reading the Hartcher piece that a reckoning is coming for China too. It’s bleeding loans to Russia (so much for Putin rolling in dough to fund his war machine) and 60%! of Debtor nations around the globe as the Belt and Road Initiative has funded infrastructure that doesn’t make much of an economic return to pay the bill to China. Watch this space. Sri Lanka was simply the first. And they end up all going, cap in hand and begging bowl to the fore, to the IMF.
I’m reminded of an interesting graphic I saw a few months ago which attempted to forecast which nations would prosper and to what extent, in the 21st century. Australia was forecast to be able to survive and prosper whatever the 21st century throws at it. China and Russia, not so much. America, well, I guess the graphic was compiled before Joe Manchin and the SCOTUS blew America’s Climate Change initiatives out of the water.
Something’s going to give in the US. I think it will take some time to sort out but when the air clears I hope the good guys with guns come out on top. 😐
Dr Doolittle 6.06am
Thanks very much for your thoughtful and fulsome post on the background to yourself and your views on the Ukraine war. I had to go in for my fourth Covid shot this morning and am typing from a bus stop now. I will give a fuller reply when I get home and have a decent keyboard. I agree with much of what you say but not all of your conclusions. It deserves a better response than I can make now.
By way of background I am an Adelaide engineer economist with Finnish grandparents and both Ukrainian- and Russian- Australian friends. So we all have our biases. I did my PhD in ethics and a couple of subjects in Russian and Soviet history.
Soc,
Then I suggest you watch the suite of videos posted by frednk @ 6.42am with the former Finnish FM/PM, when you get a chance. 🙂
”
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, July 19, 2022 at 9:53 am
Jan6,
petrol prices, fcs! The time has long since passed when we bend the knee in a policy sense to maintaining cheap petrol in this nation. And it is cheap in comparison to many other countries.
Sure it’s a ‘Big Country’ and people need to travel long distances to work and use work vehicles but it’s long overdue for us to stop catering to them. Pay the price of your lifestyle choice. Or get rid of your gas guzzler and buy an EV!
”
But but but… Biden, who said that he will make Saudi Arabia a ‘Pariah’ state, went to Saudi Arabia for more oil.
I must have missed it but did PBers criticised Biden for that?
Rider: I am away from PB for long periods.
Dr Doolittle views seem to be similar to John J. Mearsheimer, he is not alone.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dumT4TiemuU&lc=UgxEJwRjUvqcD1da3RN4AaABAg&ab_channel=ActionC
Prof Alexander Stubb has commented on Mearsheimer views directly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vlB-pRqdyBg&ab_channel=STGTV
Stubb has the advantage of being in the room.
Ven says:
Tuesday, July 19, 2022 at 10:29 am
….
But but but… Biden, who said that he will make Saudi Arabia a ‘Pariah’ state, went to Saudi Arabia for more oil.
Hard choice, Saudi Arabia or Putin.
Petrol $1.60 a litre in NE Adelaide.
Jan 6 @ #33 Tuesday, July 19th, 2022 – 9:11 am
Indeed he does. And I have been critical of the Greens generally, just as Monbiot is – but he makes a decent argument that the Australian Greens may have a point …
Bandt may in fact be correct to completely reject Labor’s lack of ambition on climate change: What is the point of “incrementalism” when the planet is already on fire? We could soon reach the point where only direct and potentially violent environmental “activism” can hope to save the planet (if we have not reached it already). Then what?
”
simm0888says:
Tuesday, July 19, 2022 at 9:16 am
Why are polling companies reluctant to poll Peter Dutton’s approval ratings? He has been Leader of the Opposition for almost as long as Albanese has been PM.
One can only presume that commercial interests are keen to protect the Coalition from further destabilisation due to dire leader poll numbers.
”
simmo888
They might have polled Dutton and did not want to release them because they may be dreadful numbers for him. 🙂
yabba says:
Monday, July 18, 2022 at 10:23 pm
C@tmomma @ #1973 Monday, July 18th, 2022 – 9:25 pm
Like a dog with a bone, yabba. No one said any of those things were wrong but that improvement to the streetscape and construction of those houses could help people in Britain cope better into the future with the effects of Climate Change. Sheesh!
As I pointed out, the houses you pictured are already excellent for coping with very hot weather because of their very low ratio of exposed external walls and roof to enclosed space, and because of their small, double glazed windows. This remains the case. Filling them with cool air by opening them up from 11 pm to 8 am, then closing them up tightly with blinds down, and curtains pulled would make them far better to be inside than the typical Australian house on very hot days, for the above-mentioned reasons. No ifs, no buts. Just true. Physics is physics. Sheesh.
=============================================
Catmomma always argues to death on subjects she knows less than the square root of SFA about (which is pretty much every subject under the sun). We own a terrace in London and stay there for a few weeks almost every summer. During the heatwave of 2019 the temperature inside never exceeded 23. We’ve been asking my niece, who lives in that house, for years (last time this morning) whether she wants us to install A/C and she keeps saying there’s absolutely no need for it. But Catmomma, who’s probably never even seen one of those terraces (other than on TV), let alone been inside of one, knows best.
”
frednksays:
Tuesday, July 19, 2022 at 10:36 am
Ven says:
Tuesday, July 19, 2022 at 10:29 am
….
But but but… Biden, who said that he will make Saudi Arabia a ‘Pariah’ state, went to Saudi Arabia for more oil.
Hard choice, Saudi Arabia or Putin.
”
frednk
Are you implying Since Biden choose SA we should accept that?
Remember the Islamic wars America had for about 20years.
That’s one foul human lesions lasagna right there *shrugs in disgust*
I’ve got some vomit in my mouth now…
Ven at 10:43 am
The Saudis are hedging their bets. Lining up BRICS if needs be.
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20220714-brics-expects-egypt-saudi-arabia-and-turkey-to-join-group-soon/
Mavissays:
Tuesday, July 19, 2022 at 9:56 am
Open and shut case of “insider trading”.
Hey Taylormade.
That list of Morrison Government achievements obviously cannot be produced because there are none.
Why don’t we simplify things and just make a list of Morrison’s personal achievements. There are plenty, mostly based around how he bullshitted his way into well paid sinecures.
I will help by offering up a cracker. On the weekend, surrounded by loons, he told the truth for a change in saying that you can’t trust governments. Obviously those governments that he had been a part of would have planted that gem in his mind.
Granny Anny at 10:51 am
Yes indeed, the moment he read for the first time “the Hon. Scott Morrison Prime Minister” he realized the government was completely untrustworthy.
Mavissays:
Tuesday, July 19, 2022 at 9:56 am
A major case of projecting himself onto others.
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, July 19, 2022 at 10:09 am
Alpha Zero,
“Ampol are heavily advertising their EV Chargers at their petrol stations. Slowly but surely the petrol pumps will be replaced. ”
And this too will be an interesting transition. Given that the majority of EVs will be charged at home, I imagine there will be fewer refuelling stations in cities but larger and perhaps spread more widely on the highways and in regions for travellers and tourists. As charging takes longer than refuelling, these stations will become leisure centres to a certain degree.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
Westminster Voting Intention (17 July):
Labour 42% (–)
Conservative 32% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 12% (–)
Green 5% (–)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Reform UK 3% (-2)
Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 10 July
____________________________________________________
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Keir Starmer Approval Rating (17 July):
Disapprove: 32% (-5)
Approve: 27% (-1)
Net: -5% (+4)
Changes +/- 10 July
Given the paucity of high-density housing available in Australia, combined with the extremely high cost of well-located housing, I’m not sure it can be said that traveling long distances to work is exactly a “lifestyle choice” for most urban Australians. Having said that, this issue is one that also has a policy solution – build more medium- and high-density housing in the inner & middle suburbs, rather than continually expanding outward, outward ever outward.
Cat, Frednk
(Home now; Adelaide buses are working well). Thanks, I am familiar with Alexander Stubb’s views and have already seen his videos. I agree they are excellent. I still have family in Finland and follow their politics closely. Needless to say, I agree with Stubb.
In fact there are a few parallels between Finnish and Ukrainian history, which have already been pointed out by others. Fair to say, the view of Russia in both cases is “guarded”.
Andrew Gold @ #63 Tuesday, July 19th, 2022 – 10:43 am
Thanks, Andrew
Cronus at 11:03 am
Back in the early day of EVs I reckoned they should be designed such that the batteries can be quickly interchanged, drop in/drop out. So at a ‘petrol station’ it was just a matter of a quick swap and off you go. Obviously all the designers/engineers/manufacturers/customers had other ideas 😆 I still reckon that ‘cunning plan’ could have a part to play in some situations.
Player Onesays:
Tuesday, July 19, 2022 at 10:38 am
He’s obviously not talking about the federal Greens.
When could you accuse them of advocating incrementalism?
For anyone attempting to follow along WB’s otherwise clear and concise explanation of the 3CP chart, but who like me were confused when looking for “Greens at 50% when the Coalition are at 0%”, this is the graph you need to see.
You can generate it if you expand both axes to run from zero to 100%, that is from o to 1.
Thank you Mr Bowe for link and the explanation. I suspect this will be a useful addition to the tool kit. https://abjago.net/3pp/#
Player One
“ Bandt may in fact be correct to completely reject Labor’s lack of ambition on climate change: What is the point of “incrementalism” when the planet is already on fire? We could soon reach the point where only direct and potentially violent environmental “activism” can hope to save the planet (if we have not reached it already). Then what?”
It’s easier to expedite the process once on the path. The Coalition would never allow us onto the path. The ALP will allow us onto the path although initially not at the speed most would like. I’d like to think that the 43% floor, supported by all but the Coalition, could be significantly upgraded for the next election. This will require the initiating and establishing of various policies and plans over the next 24 months (including plans for unemployed fossil fuel workers) that will allow for the improvement we all seek.
Over-egging and breaking ALP election promises at this stage would be a disaster. We’ve seen it before and we know that all that’ll happen is that progression will be stopped for another decade by the Coalition. Discretion is the better part of valour, even with climate change.
Andrew Gold @ – 10:43 am
My earliest impression of ‘England’ was from the horror of seeing the opening sequence of Coronation St. and the terraces I say horror because that view of the endless rooves (in glorious B&W) was indeed a ‘horror show’ to that little country boy. The thought of living in such a place was awful, wall to wall brick .
Redfield & Wilton Strategies @RedfieldWilton
At this moment, which of the following individuals do you think would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom?
Starmer vs Sunak:
Starmer 43%
Sunak 33%
Starmer vs Truss:
Starmer 41%
Truss 29%
Starmer vs Mordaunt:
Starmer 37%
Mordaunt 31%
Matt says:
Tuesday, July 19, 2022 at 11:09 am
“Given the paucity of high-density housing available in Australia, combined with the extremely high cost of well-located housing, I’m not sure it can be said that traveling long distances to work is exactly a “lifestyle choice” for most urban Australians. Having said that, this issue is one that also has a policy solution – build more medium- and high-density housing in the inner & middle suburbs, rather than continually expanding outward, outward ever outward.”
Hard to disagree. And furthermore, build on land that won’t flood. We have spread out in Australia on quarter acre blocks simply because we could but it has proven unsustainable for a small population on a large continent. Well designed cities with low energy apartments built to appropriate standards and sufficient green spaces are possible. It simply requires political will. It becomes so obvious when I visit Europe and even Asia. They haven’t perfected it but some cities in particular have done a pretty fair job all considering, particularly incorporating great public transport solutions.
poroti says:
Tuesday, July 19, 2022 at 11:14 am
Cronus at 11:03 am
“Back in the early day of EVs I reckoned they should be designed such that the batteries can be quickly interchanged, drop in/drop out. So at a ‘petrol station’ it was just a matter of a quick swap and off you go. Obviously all the designers/engineers/manufacturers/customers had other ideas I still reckon that ‘cunning plan’ could have a part to play in some situations.”
Agreed, I believe this will be the primary solution in China and India for electric trucks due to obvious time constraints for transport companies. I suspect the same may follow a decade later for cars. It just makes sense and saves clogging up charging stations.
The best outcome is a mostly peaceful breakup of the union. Plenty of big economy states prepared to do what is necessary for climate change. Or…. 2 of Florida, Texas or NC finally flip at the state, senate and POTUS level – and flip very very soon. But I suspect it is too late for that. The GOP, electoral offices and SCOTUS are now in step to tread on democracy.
Dr Doolittle
I had too many thoughts to put in one post in response to yours. Pity we can’t meet over a glass of wine. There is always pollbludger! So as not to torture other readers with too long a post, I will split my response into three parts, and will aspire to brevity.
I was struck by this closing comment of yours, which I agree with. I will respond to it from three perspectives in three posts.
“Those fighting Putin in Ukraine in 2022 had nearly 14 years to prepare for this awful war. It is not clear how, or when, the war will end. But the preparations for fighting Putin were very inadequate.”
1. Ukrainian viewpoint
If we accept the notion that Ukraine is a sovereign independent nation then it has the right to exist and autonomously decide its own destiny. Therefore any attempts by Russia to conquer it or other nations to demand surrender of territory are neither legally nor politically credible. I ignore them. I don’t decide the Ukrainians fate; they do.
That being said, I will deal with the history too. Whilst the sleights claimed by Russia since 2014 are acknowledged, for the Ukrainians, the mistreatment and falsehoods heaped their way by Russia and the Soviet Union started long before then.
Ukraine was a nation centuries before Russia existed as one. Putinesque suggestions it is “part of Russia” are legally, historically and culturally false, and only likely to increase Ukrainian resistance.
Attempts at “Russification” in Ukraine dating back to the 19th century under Alexander III were hated in Ukraine (and Finland) and began the rise of modern Ukrainian nationalism. I would argue that Alexander III’s inability to accept a multi-cultural Russian empire led to its breakup in terms of ethnic tensions.
Under the Soviets this continued, climaxing grimly with the Holodomir under Stalin. That event is vivid in Ukrainian memory and, with events such as the destruction of Chechnya occurring under modern Russia, guarantees that the willingness of Ukraine to be part of Russia is now very low.
The 2022 invasion has practically exterminated any desire to be part of Russia within Ukraine. The few pro-Russian Ukrainians still sympathetic to Putin have mostly fled into Russia since the invasion. So if Russia cannot comprehend a two-State solution, then the war won’t end till they leave or annihilate Ukraine. Ukraine is militarily incapable of annihilating Russia.
Ukraine lacked the military and economic resources to prepare for war any better than it did. Corruption was also a limiting factor, but not primary. Prior to 2014 Ukraine relied on guarantees from the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, which was freely signed by Russia. Hence I don’t think we can blame Ukraine for this situation.
@ Cronus 1117am
Spot on mate. If the 43% is the floor, and is accepted by all as such, then much more can be done to lift the ceiling, particularly through regulation rather than just by legislation. Labor needs to achieve this legislative promise early in its time.
There’s no doubt that much, much more needs to be done. That we have a progressive, responsive government is a good start. So much to be done though- the state of the environment certainly dovetails in with global climate change and I’m hoping much will be done there as well.
Barney in Cherating @ #77 Tuesday, July 19th, 2022 – 11:16 am
Perhaps you could try re-reading my post?
yabba @ #75 Tuesday, July 19th, 2022 – 11:13 am
I see Andrew Gold has been brought back onto the field to try and defend the indefensible. And yabba has lapped it up. Predictably.
Fools the both of you.
Fyi, I have a direct line to someone who is living in one of those terraces right now. On this day and the next, when it is going to go to 40C in England, for the first time since records began there:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/18/heat-wave-uk-temperatures-40c-record/
And males who hate to admit when a female owns them, what’s more.
Because, yabba, you’re the one who has tried to make this all about whether English terraces can cope with Climate Change NOW. Whereas, I have been explicit in saying that those row houses will not be able to cope into the future as a result of the effects of Climate Change and then suggested various modifications that the houses and the street environment should potentially undergo in order to benefit the populace going forward. None of which you’ve challenged with your glorious Physics, yabba. Instead making reactionary comment as you drive past the point as quickly as possible.
And, Andrew Gold, you’re simply beneath contempt. Your unnatural obsession with me should embarrass you, but instead, it seems, you lurk and lie in wait and hope to one day be able to deliver the coup de grace against me. Yet again you have failed.
You give the game away by stating that ‘in 2019’ it was not a problem in your terrace in England. Well, guess what? It wasn’t as hot in summer then and you know what else? It’s 2022.
Grow up the both of you!
Oh, and if you want you can ask me all about what it’s really like in those terraces today and tomorrow. My son and I speak to an occupant twice a day. 🙂
“ Australian football superstar Sam Kerr has been revealed as the first woman to grace the global cover of the latest iteration of EA Sports’ FIFA franchise. The sport’s premier video game comes out with a new release every year, and FIFA 23’s Ultimate Edition will feature Kerr alongside Paris St Germain striker, Kylian Mbappé.”
I’m no expert and don’t play computer games but I do know just how big this is from my contact with others. Apparently this is huge. What a star Sam Kerr is on the world stage, not quite so much here at home sadly.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-19/sam-kerr-makes-fifa-23-video-game-cover/101249480
Jaeger at 11:40 am
Jan 6 @ #84 Tuesday, July 19th, 2022 – 11:36 am
Apparently, Texas is taking Secession very, very seriously. However, another winter should shake them out of that silly idea.
poroti @ #80 Tuesday, July 19th, 2022 – 2:24 am
It was just like Corrie when I lived in Nottingham 🙂
Newsagent/corner shop at the end of the street, although the pub was a few streets away 🙁
Interior of my house peaked at 30F today (29F now with all the windows open upstairs and a fan running)
I believe the forecast high now for Tuesday is Worksop in North Notts, at 41 or 42F. Worksop is 110 miles north of Cambridge where the present record was recorded
Cronus @ #79 Tuesday, July 19th, 2022 – 11:17 am
This is essentially the argument that “incrementalism” is the best approach, even though we know it will not get us to where we need to be. It is essentially arguing that it is better to do something cheap and safe but risk failure rather rather than do something expensive and risky but succeed.
Needless to say, I don’t subscribe to that argument, and I don’t think Bandt does either.
I do of course mean Centigrade not Fahrenheit in the previous 🙂
Ray (UK)
Sounds like the perfect weather to pop down to the local for a pint.
Ven @ #57 Tuesday, July 19th, 2022 – 10:29 am
I’ve listened to a podcast where a respected Progressive in America, Will Saletan, analyses this and it’s worth a listen to hear what he has to say about it.
tl:dr Putin is killing 100s/day in Ukraine and using his fossil fuels as global blackmail
MBS ordered the murder of 1 Washington Post journalist but also holds the key to getting around
Putin. On balance, going to Saudi Arabia is right, now.
Player One
“ This is essentially the argument that “incrementalism” is the best approach, even though we know it will not get us to where we need to be. It is essentially arguing that it is better to do something cheap and safe but risk failure rather rather than do something expensive and risky but succeed.
Needless to say, I don’t subscribe to that argument, and I don’t think Bandt does either.”
I agree with your desire and intent. I also believe that any attempt at this stage (2022) to blow up the ‘incrementalism’ will also destroy any chance of progress whatsoever. Cutting off our nose to spite our face is just pointless in our political and cultural circumstances. Those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
Ray(UK),
It’s been a different experience in Gloucester. Hotter inside the house than out. Even with windows open. Towels over the windows dry out quickly. Energy to keep renewing them is low. No fans because they never thought they’d see the day when they’d need them.
You cant shake silly out of some people. The GOP dont underestimate how deeply silly some people can be; they prey on it for their short term personal gain. It doesnt matter how bad things get, when stubborn cultural voting habits are widespread the b@stard GOP pollies can shift the blame wherever they want.