With the flood of post-election analysis having subsided and opinion polling yet to properly crank up again (expect that to change when parliament resumes next week), there is not a lot to report. Roy Morgan’s weekly video update last week informed us that Labor leads 53.5-46.5 in its latest round of polling, out from 53-47 the last time it offered a full set of results in the middle of last month, but it didn’t deem fit to offer anything further. The international leadership approval tracking poll by Morning Consult suggests Anthony Albanese’s standing has continued to improve, his approval having cracked 60% and disapproval down to 24%, which compares with 57% and 26% when I last reported on it three weeks ago.
I do have another new entry to relate from the burgeoning field of online psephological tools, courtesy of Alex Jago and Ben Messenger, providing a triangular representation of the increasingly common occurrence of three-cornered contests between Labor, the Coalition and the Greens. This can just as easily be adapted to any combination of three parties or candidates you care to choose, as long as you have a reasonable handle on how preferences are likely to flow between them.
The starting point here is each party’s share of the vote at the second last preference count, to be identified henceforth as 3CP, or three-candidate preferred. The tool’s default preference splits are 80-20 against the Coalition when Labor or the Greens are excluded, roughly consistent with all past experience, and 70-30 in favour of Labor when the Coalition is excluded, which is about what happens when Coalition preferences are so directed. On the last relevant occasion I can think of when they went the other way, when Adam Bandt first sought re-election in Melbourne in 2010, they favoured the Greens 80-20. Happily, the tool allows you to set the splits however you desire.
To explain what’s going on here, I’ll stick with the defaults. The Coalition 3CP is on the x-axis, the Greens are on the y-axis, and the balance belongs to Labor. On the left we see the 3CP needed by the Greens to defeat Labor when the Coalition is uncompetitive, starting at 50% where the Coalition has no votes at all. At this end of the triangle, the dividing line between a Greens win and a Labor win is broken into three parts. As the Coalition’s 3CP increases from nothing to 29%, the Greens’ required 3CP falls gently from 50% to 42% while Labor’s falls sharply from 50% to 30%, reflecting Labor’s higher share of Coalition preferences.
Once the Coalition gets to 30%, they reach the point where they might make the final count in a race where both Labor and the Greens are competitive, without being competitive themselves. Such was the case in Brisbane and Macnamara at the May election, which is why the AEC conducted indicative 3CP counts to provide an early indication of who would ultimately win there out of Labor and the Greens. As this presents the Greens with a new winning scenario where Labor runs third, here their minimum winning 3CP quickly falls from from 42% to 34%. But once the Coalition 3CP is significantly over a third, there is no longer enough left over for both the Greens and Labor to be competitive. Here the 3CP needed by either reduces from 34% to 29% as the Coalition 3CP increases from 34% to 44%.
With the Coalition only receiving 20% of preferences, they need fully 45% on 3CP to be in contention themselves. Even here they only make it if the remainder splits about evenly between Labor and the Greens, since the preferences they receive diminish together with the 3CP of whoever out of Labor and the Greens drops out. From that point on, the Coalition’s chances steadily increase to 100% where their 3CP reaches 50%, at which point they win before Labor or the Greens are excluded.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/02/17/texas-abbott-wind-turbines-outages/
Silly has no floor.
Cronus @ #98 Tuesday, July 19th, 2022 – 12:02 pm
Those who refuse to learn from the history of action on climate change may soon see history itself come to an end.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/19/climate-action-is-fighting-back-against-big-polluters-we-dont-need-to-end-australias-climate-wars-we-need-to-win-them
Jan 6 @ #100 Tuesday, July 19th, 2022 – 12:06 pm
Well, let them suffer the consequences. Also, it will take a very large tranche of Electoral College votes out of the equation for POTUS. 🙂
An oldie but a goodie from Moir, who is on holiday:
Jan 6 at 12:06 pm
An odd thing about Texas is that at the same time it is a fossil fuel dinosaur and fossil fuel 800lb gorrila rich environment there have been for years headlines such as this…………
Texas led the country in new renewable energy projects last year
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/18/texas-led-the-country-in-new-renewable-energy-projects-last-year.html
Dr Doolittle
“Those fighting Putin in Ukraine in 2022 had nearly 14 years to prepare for this awful war. It is not clear how, or when, the war will end. But the preparations for fighting Putin were very inadequate.”
Post 2 of 3 – Russian Viewpoint
I have already stated that historically I think the claim by Putin that Ukraine was a natural part of Russia is simply false. I’m not even sure, state propaganda aside, how many Russian’s believe it.
I think we have to at least consider the possibility that, for Putin, external aggression like the invasions of Chechnya I and II, Georgia 2008, and Ukraine 2014 and 2022 have nothing to do with their view of Ukraine, but are classic imperialism. Given the struggles of the Russian economy, they are also a distraction from domestic economic mismanagement and corruption. “Wag the Dog”, Moscow-style.
I am sure many Russian’s look back on the Soviet era with nostalgia, especially former KGB agents. They got to be in charge of a large and powerful country. But it was an illusion.
The Soviet system was failing in the 80s in any case (acknowledged by Gorbachev) and disasters like Chernobyl and Afghanistan hastened it. The Warsaw Pact was a treaty for the economic exploitation of eastern Europe. Without that prop, Russian economic decline was inevitable.
Russian claims the west bankrupted Russia in the 90s are false and need to be actively countered. Putin’s oligarch cronies bankrupted Russia. Germany paid Russia many billions to get Soviet troops to leave former East Germany. We should have asked – where did the money go?
The idea that any kind of reconstructed Soviet/Russian empire is economically viable is false. Russia’s economy is roughly the size of Canada’s. It has a far larger military than it can afford to sustain. I see it as the 21st century equivalent of 19th century Ottoman Turkey – the “poor man of Europe”.
This leads me to a basic conclusion in Ukraine – Russia can’t win. Their army is too small, too badly trained, too badly equipped and has already taken severe losses. Only massive Chinese support could tip the balance, and that isn’t happening, since it would end Xi’s hopes of dominating the Indo-Pacific through trade. The Ukraine war is going to be either an ongoing stalemate aka North vs South Korea, or withdrawl aka Afghanistan. Russian military collapse is also a possibility.
How many ordinary Russians support the war in Ukraine now, outside Putin’s circle? We don’t know. Russia is not functionally democratic and the FSB and Russian Guard are not much smaller than their Soviet contemporaries. This means that the war will not stop if unpopular, but only if Putin fears loss.
So western apologists pressing Ukraine to make peace are probably pandering to Russia’s leaders, not Russia’s people.
Some also talk about “lack of exit ramps” for Russia. Perhaps there is a serious case for a neutral state – Switzerland? – offering Putin a “bolthole” to safely leave Russia for a life in exile to end the Ukraine war. With Putin gone, the remaining Russian leadership could make a facesaving withdrawal.
This leaves the last “realpolitik” issue – the threat of nuclear war. Avoiding nuclear war is desirable to say the least. The differences between conventional war, nuclear war and when one might lead to the other was better demarcated in the cold war, and unfortunately I think such rules now need to be reconstituted. In the absence of those rules, imperialists like Putin will pick on states perceived as defenseless. Hence we need those rules back.
I may disagree with Putin’s values, and deplore his actions, but he is neither irrational nor stupid. The sooner the west warns Putin and Russia of the consequences of escalation for Russia, the less likely it is to happen.
Gettysburg1863 @ #86 Tuesday, July 19th, 2022 – 11:40 am
Fossil fuel related political donations/investments are holding back the L/NP and Labor parties from listening to the science.
Partisans from both actually celebrate our fossil fuel exports that enables the globes worst emitters to kill the environment and its living creatures including humans.
poroti @ #105 Tuesday, July 19th, 2022 – 12:12 pm
They get a LOT of sunshine too. Plus they have some very Progressive cities.
Cronus @ #98 Tuesday, July 19th, 2022 – 12:02 pm
The mood has changed in the electorate.
No party should be politically afraid to fully embrace the science.
It is only corporate interests that is holding Australia back.
Even worse is multiple morning radio news readers just parrot what Newscorp dish up.
Hear bloody hear
Ronni Salt
He makes me ill, all of his kind do.
Scott Morrison, Tim Wilson, Barnaby Burp – all the same bloated grifters decrying GOVERNMENTS! while happily snuffling their fat drooling snouts into government money.
Their repugnancy is only overshadowed by one thing – their hypocrisy.
frednk @ #59 Tuesday, July 19th, 2022 – 10:36 am
Fuck ’em both, and the oil too. Easy. 🙂
Dr Doolittle
“Those fighting Putin in Ukraine in 2022 had nearly 14 years to prepare for this awful war. It is not clear how, or when, the war will end. But the preparations for fighting Putin were very inadequate.”
I am not writing a post 4 “Chinese viewpoint” because I don’t know it enough.
Post 3 of 3 – Western Viewpoint
There is no one western viewpoint, a fact which Russian propaganda has tried to exploit. Putin overestimated this. I think the various respondents can be divided into at least three camps:
The Sympathetic
Eastern European countries, and other smaller countries are opposed to the invasion and support Ukraine. It would be a dangerous precedent that may lead to further wars. I cannot see this group of nations “defecting” as they have too much self-interest in supporting Ukraine. This group alone is sufficient to sustain the war on Ukraine’s part.
The Opportunistic
Some NATO countries (notably USA) opposed to Russia see the war as an opportunity to weaken Russia and support Ukraine for that reason. This is not particularly virtuous, but will hasten Russia’s loss. The sooner the war ends the fewer people are killed. Ergo I see this as the right action for the wrong reasons. This is unlikely to stop under Biden, but the future post Biden is unpredictable.
The Compromised
Some countries (e.g. Germany, Italy and India) are not in favour of the invasion but are compromised by energy dependence on Russia and are vulnerable due to either inadequate defence spending or dependence on Russian weapon supply.
This is embarrassing, and undermines NATO and the EU. But those wanting action for Ukraine remain in the majority. Several are rapidly acting to remove dependency on Russian energy. Once that is gone, so is this threat. For India, there has never been a better time to sell them western weapons.
So the response of the west has varied from good to bad, illustrating its politically fractured state. Nevertheless, the west is now so much more powerful than Russia that even a fraction of western countries (eastern Europe alone) could support Ukraine enough for victory.
AR
“Hard choice, Saudi Arabia or Putin.
Fuck ’em both, and the oil too. Easy. ”
+1
P1: “What is the point of “incrementalism” when the planet is already on fire?”
What’s the policy of the LNP that you vote for P1? Shouldn’t you be selling its benefits?
Conus: “I agree with your desire and intent. I also believe that any attempt at this stage (2022) to blow up the ‘incrementalism’ will also destroy any chance of progress whatsoever.”
Which is the intent of P1.
The only people who were suggesting or insinuating that Plibersek was “demoted” to the Environment portfolio were the usual Press Gallery hacks. I haven’t heard anyone else say it.
The Press Gallery should be roundly ignored as they’ve been wrong about basically everything the past couple of years.
Pisays:
Tuesday, July 19, 2022 at 9:43 am
Hey, does anyone else remember all of the screeching about the ‘demotion’ of Tanya Plibersek?
_____________________
She released a report that is required by legislation to be produced every 5 years.
Whoop-to-doo.
poroti: “Back in the early day of EVs I reckoned they should be designed such that the batteries can be quickly interchanged, drop in/drop out. So at a ‘petrol station’ it was just a matter of a quick swap and off you go. Obviously all the designers/engineers/manufacturers/customers had other ideas ”
Turned out to be too difficult and too dangerous. The batteries necessary to run EV’s make up a significant portion of their weight. Moving those big heavy things in a consumer enviornment leads to mistakes of handling, and batteries can be quite dangerous when those mistakes manifest over time.
C@tmomma @ #108 Tuesday, July 19th, 2022 – 11:51 am
Yeah, that is good news…. but their eco footprint is fricking huge compared to comparable Europeans (ie, similar pop density). Remember Bernardi’s anti earth hour antics? “Turn the lights on”! There are people out there deliberately using more energy than they need to prove their bizarre ideological insanity. It becomes their identity. Eat more beef, drive bigger cars etc. Why? Because I aint a greenie!
Tailormaid: “She released a report that is required by legislation to be produced every 5 years.”
So why did the LNP hide it then?
Putin strategy is to completely cut off gas supply and destroy the grain crops in the Ukraine. Grain which a good percentage of world relies on.
Putin considers this the bargaining chip to get Ukraine to relinquish Eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine will fight to the end. It will require
Europe, the USA et al to remain united in their support. In doing so, Ukraine will prevail.
Russia is not doing well economically, and Putin seriously thinks he can push Ukraine and Europe to the edge before Russia falls any further.
I dont see it working out for him.
C@tmomma @ #89 Tuesday, July 19th, 2022 – 11:43 am
Please believe whatever makes you feel better. I am sorry that you are upset.
London 2019 hottest day 38.7 C. July 25. Yesterday 38.1.
I’d expect Plibersek to be on the side of the Teal, the Greens and the science once she has absorbed the report, rather than side with the ALP fossil fuel donors.
Sweet jebus insurance premiums are eyewatering these days!
Jan. 6 committee reveals some of the Thursday witnesses for prime time hearing
The House Select Committee investigating the attack on Congress revealed that they will be calling former deputy press secretary Sarah Matthews and Matthew Pottinger, a former deputy national security adviser, to answer questions.
Both of the individuals were on hand in the White House on Jan. 6 and could testify to what they witnessed in the 187 minutes that former President Donald Trump didn’t act to help the vice president or officials, staff and police at the Capitol.
Matthews, in particular, will speak to the efforts by White House staff to get Trump to issue a statement telling his supporters to stop the attack.
Rich Chinese Worth $48 Billion Want to Leave — But Will Xi Let Them?
Some 10,000 wealthy Chinese are looking to leave in the wake of punishing lockdowns and an economic slowdown. The question is whether they’ll be able to.
Like thousands of wealthy people across China, Shanghai restaurateur Harry Hu is planning to do something he once considered unthinkable: move himself and his money out of the country.
Scarred by Shanghai’s chaotic lockdown under the Covid-Zero policy that has made China a global outlier, Hu is joining what investment migration consultancy Henley & Partners estimates is a cohort of 10,000 high-net-worth residents seeking to pull $48 billion from China this year — the second-largest predicted wealth and people outflow for a country after Russia.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-19/xi-s-strict-covid-zero-policy-in-china-pushes-wealthy-to-leave-country?srnd=premium-asia
The national medical regulator has approved the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine for children aged six months to five years old.
The Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) has provisionally approved a paediatric dose of the vaccine, which contains a lower concentration of the active ingredient.
The TGA is recommending the vaccine be administered as two doses, at least 28 days apart.
This follows TGA provisional approval of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine for children in the same age group last month.
There are new EV batteries that are structurally part of the chassis. Can they still be changed when needed or does that make it an even more difficult and exe process?
Any thoughts on this proposal by the ACT to cease registering new fossil fuel light vehicles from 2035?
There is a predictable negative reaction by the association representing car dealers. So far as I can see, the ACT Liberal opposition is in a bind because their MLAs publicly back government initiatives to tackle global warming but are beholden to business lobbies.
From those who might know, how many fossil fuel cars, motorbikes and light commercials are likely to be produced around the world in 2035 anyway?
Are other states likely to be doing something similar to the ACT?
[EDIT to get correct URL]
The problem with Monbiot here is that he is not joining any of the dots. At all
The Greens want to kill off the coal, oil, gas, almond, rice, cotton, beef and uranium industries. They want to kill off the production systems that bring you your pork, chicken and eggs. There is nothing at all incremental about that.
They want to kill off live exports of cattle, sheep and goats. Nothing incremental about it.
They also want to halve the size of the ADF and get rid of tanks, planes, ships and artillery. There is nothing incremental about that, either.
They want to build a million homes. Nothing incremental about that, either.
All this lack of incrementalism has garnered them around one vote in ten for the last thirty years. Now THAT is incremental.
Plibersek’s speech is the most comprehensive presentation, by government, on environment in many years. If she campaigns on these issues at the next election Labor should benefit a great deal.
(image posted by Rex)
Murdoch again being deliberately misleading with a headline making it appear the Andrews government is creating “mask madness”.
The small print text says “some independent schools” are telling parents that masks are mandatory. But that’s Murdoch (and doubtless the Victorian Liberals) using any dubious pretext to attack the government and creating confusion in the community.
Pi @ #115 Tuesday, July 19th, 2022 – 12:43 pm
My intent is to encourage Labor to show some ambition on the critical issue of climate change. Yours seems to be to encourage Labor to continue to pursue “business as usual” policies no matter the consequences … and also make inane, nonsensical, boring and frankly rather stupid comments.
citizen @ #129 Tuesday, July 19th, 2022 – 1:02 pm
ACT? That would be a Labor/Green State government?
IMO, you have misread this article. His dots are bigger than you make out and his use of incrementalism is different to your take.
He is taking aim at the powers that seek to silence the issue and the powers that seek to shift focus to individual behaviour. This is a power argument – who is controlling the issue, who is controlling the politics and where is democracy in this? He also takes aims at green groups latching on to the individual (tokenistic) action part of that. Yes, it is good to do your bit, but dont kid yourself.
My read on it is that Monbiot would have been very supportive of a economy wide carbon tax, starting and low levels that could be ramped up incrementally (or down) as need be. The big leap is the acceptance that such a tax is needed. the acceptance that the cost of the tax is far cheaper than the impacts of climate change. His argument is that the narrative of climate change has been hijacked by groups who dont want change or groups who benefit from tokenistic change. All of which means not enough people are buying into the movement.
Now, you could say the Greens tactics do not help. It alienates people. That would be an interesting debate. But you then have to differentiate who is most to blame there, the Greens or the media environment that Monbiot speaks of.
citizen @ #131 Tuesday, July 19th, 2022 – 1:18 pm
They are really getting their commentariate stirred up as well. Not pretty at all.
poroti says:
Tuesday, July 19, 2022 at 11:24 am
Andrew Gold @ – 10:43 am
who’s probably never even seen one of those terraces (other than on TV), let alone been inside of one, knows best.
My earliest impression of ‘England’ was from the horror of seeing the opening sequence of Coronation St. and the terraces I say horror because that view of the endless rooves (in glorious B&W) was indeed a ‘horror show’ to that little country boy. The thought of living in such a place was awful, wall to wall brick .
======================
The earliest impression of England for me was from The Good Life. As a boy living in a flat in a big city at the time I loved every minute of it.
Plibersek is horribly wedged between the Teal position and Labors position.
https://twitter.com/naveenjrazik/status/1549234452370706433
Player One@ Tuesday, July 19, 2022 at 1:20 pm
“My intent is to encourage Labor to show some ambition on the critical issue of climate change. Yours seems to be to encourage Labor to continue to pursue “business as usual” policies no matter the consequences … and also make inane, nonsensical, boring and frankly rather stupid comments.”
Now “encourage” is an interesting word. Not one that I would have used in association with your posts. Maybe the copious use of sad face emoji are a perverse form of encouragement in your neck of the woods 😉
P1: “My intent is to encourage Labor ”
Where is your intent to encourage the LNP, the people you voted for?
P1: “Yours seems to be to encourage Labor to continue to pursue “business as usual””
Yours seems to be to ignore the LNP, the people you voted for, and criticize the ALP for not doing the things that the LNP actively stand against.
Amy says what we’re all thinking…
Scrap the stage 3 tax cuts, Albo ..!
Socrates says:
Tuesday, July 19, 2022 at 12:18 pm
….
I may disagree with Putin’s values, and deplore his actions, but he is neither irrational nor stupid. The sooner the west warns Putin and Russia of the consequences of escalation for Russia, the less likely it is to happen.
As Russia has stopped the nuclear war talk I think they have been told.
Felicity Kendall?
jan6
.
‘…Now, you could say the Greens tactics do not help. It alienates people. That would be an interesting debate. But you then have to differentiate who is most to blame there, the Greens or the media environment that Monbiot speaks of.’
——————————–
You don’t seem to have been paying attention, either. Didn’t you realize that Labor, with 45/2030 is killing the Reef but the Greens, with 75/2030 will save the Reef?
This has nothing to do with incrementalism. This has nothing to do with individual action. But it has everything to do with the Reds abusing environmental issues destroy Labor and to bring on the Revolution.
Griff @ #138 Tuesday, July 19th, 2022 – 1:47 pm
We have reason to be sad in our neck of the woods, and don’t take kindly to being patronized by those who think the biggest downside of climate change is the high cost of their electricity and petrol 🙁
Pi @ #139 Tuesday, July 19th, 2022 – 1:49 pm
What made you think doubling down on your “inane, nonsensical, boring and frankly rather stupid” comments was a good idea?
‘irrational’ and ‘stupid’ are sort of black and white.
With the benefit of hindsight, would Putin have invaded Ukraine had he known where he would be right now?
He ignored some Bludger Universal Laws of War:
1. Starting a war is easy.
2. Getting out of a war is hard.
3. Wars never go the way you think they will go.
4. Even when you ‘win’ a war your lose the war.
Jan 6 says:
Tuesday, July 19, 2022 at 1:51 pm
The earliest impression of England for me was from The Good Life. As a boy living in a flat in a big city at the time I loved every minute of it.
Felicity Kendall?
==============
Absolutely
I see the excellent NBC analyst for the PGA tour, David Feherty, has left for the LIV tour.
Rumours of Cam Smith, Marc Leishman, Adam Scott, Henrick Stenson, Bubba Watson on their way as well…
The PGA must sit down with LIV to work it out. Greg Norman’s plan for Liv is to integrate it with all the majors as well as the big PGA events and DP World tour events.