With the flood of post-election analysis having subsided and opinion polling yet to properly crank up again (expect that to change when parliament resumes next week), there is not a lot to report. Roy Morgan’s weekly video update last week informed us that Labor leads 53.5-46.5 in its latest round of polling, out from 53-47 the last time it offered a full set of results in the middle of last month, but it didn’t deem fit to offer anything further. The international leadership approval tracking poll by Morning Consult suggests Anthony Albanese’s standing has continued to improve, his approval having cracked 60% and disapproval down to 24%, which compares with 57% and 26% when I last reported on it three weeks ago.
I do have another new entry to relate from the burgeoning field of online psephological tools, courtesy of Alex Jago and Ben Messenger, providing a triangular representation of the increasingly common occurrence of three-cornered contests between Labor, the Coalition and the Greens. This can just as easily be adapted to any combination of three parties or candidates you care to choose, as long as you have a reasonable handle on how preferences are likely to flow between them.
The starting point here is each party’s share of the vote at the second last preference count, to be identified henceforth as 3CP, or three-candidate preferred. The tool’s default preference splits are 80-20 against the Coalition when Labor or the Greens are excluded, roughly consistent with all past experience, and 70-30 in favour of Labor when the Coalition is excluded, which is about what happens when Coalition preferences are so directed. On the last relevant occasion I can think of when they went the other way, when Adam Bandt first sought re-election in Melbourne in 2010, they favoured the Greens 80-20. Happily, the tool allows you to set the splits however you desire.
To explain what’s going on here, I’ll stick with the defaults. The Coalition 3CP is on the x-axis, the Greens are on the y-axis, and the balance belongs to Labor. On the left we see the 3CP needed by the Greens to defeat Labor when the Coalition is uncompetitive, starting at 50% where the Coalition has no votes at all. At this end of the triangle, the dividing line between a Greens win and a Labor win is broken into three parts. As the Coalition’s 3CP increases from nothing to 29%, the Greens’ required 3CP falls gently from 50% to 42% while Labor’s falls sharply from 50% to 30%, reflecting Labor’s higher share of Coalition preferences.
Once the Coalition gets to 30%, they reach the point where they might make the final count in a race where both Labor and the Greens are competitive, without being competitive themselves. Such was the case in Brisbane and Macnamara at the May election, which is why the AEC conducted indicative 3CP counts to provide an early indication of who would ultimately win there out of Labor and the Greens. As this presents the Greens with a new winning scenario where Labor runs third, here their minimum winning 3CP quickly falls from from 42% to 34%. But once the Coalition 3CP is significantly over a third, there is no longer enough left over for both the Greens and Labor to be competitive. Here the 3CP needed by either reduces from 34% to 29% as the Coalition 3CP increases from 34% to 44%.
With the Coalition only receiving 20% of preferences, they need fully 45% on 3CP to be in contention themselves. Even here they only make it if the remainder splits about evenly between Labor and the Greens, since the preferences they receive diminish together with the 3CP of whoever out of Labor and the Greens drops out. From that point on, the Coalition’s chances steadily increase to 100% where their 3CP reaches 50%, at which point they win before Labor or the Greens are excluded.
The ABC is copping a real pasting on Twitter over announcing the Stan Grant Hour, previously known as QandA.
Cronus @ #1938 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 12:21 pm
If trump had carried the 2020 Election, Ukraine would still be whistling wait for US assistance against Russia as well.
Russia probably would have wrapped it up by now
Before the new Parliament sitting begins Scott Morrison has fled, he will not be in parliament this week
Before the new Parliament sitting begins Scott Morrison has fled, he will not be in parliament this week
_____
Gutless, gormless. You name it!
AE
“The BrahMos Missile looks impressive on paper, but speed may likely actually compromise accuracy against moving targets. A large ship only needs to move off its expected line of travel by several metres to make an expected hit, a near miss. ”
Yes Anti-shipping missiles are a trade off between going faster to reduce defender’s reaction time and not too fast to maintain tracking accuracy. Most of the modern missiles that have onboard guidance and seekers are high subsonic speed. Improvement is obtained by better missile stealth, ECM and guidance, not speed.
Interestingly the Russians, first went for hyper-sonic missiles back in the 1980s with the SSN19 Shipwreck, which has evolved into the Brahmos. Yet the latest Russian SSM, (Kalibr being used in Ukraine) has gone back to subsonic. Kalibr is proving highly accurate, though the Russians appear to have few left..
AV
Thanks for the clarification last night regarding the source of those stories on the Poseidon torpedo. I agree HL Sutton is highly credible.
Scott
“Before the new Parliament sitting begins Scott Morrison has fled, he will not be in parliament this week”
Morrison is a classic coward – bully.
Speaking of which, it will be interesting to see how John Barilaro explains this video.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/25/nsw-police-investigate-altercation-john-barilaro-camera-operator-manly-sydney-street
C@tmomma says:
Monday, July 25, 2022 at 9:05 am
I have a question for our doctors.
If the major portal of entry for COVID-19 is through the nose, would it benefit me and reduce the likelihood of my catching the virus if I rubbed hand sanitiser around my nostril skin?
One could always try sniffing ethanol 😉
So with the first sitting of parliament I think it is time for the prediction game for this parliament.
– How long before an MP or Senator defects from their party?
My guess is it will probably be one of the extreme LNP senators (Antic, Renwick etc.) who thinks they will have a better chance as a UAP or something. Especially if they are going to be 3rd on the ticket in the senate.
– How will the large number of independents go? Will they work together or end up fighting?
I guess you can’t call it infighting if there is no “in”. I am going to say there seems to be a few who are trying to big name themselves already but others do seem to be concentrating on representing their electorates.
– How long will Potato last as leader before there is talk of a challenge?
I am going a year on this one. Especially if they are at about 42 TPP or so.
What will be the first ministerial scandal?
I am guessing a big deal will be made out of some union connections at some stage by the usual suspects (Sky, News).
When does ScoMo pull up stumps to go and head his own church?
I think he will just moonlight for most the year and post NSW election retire.
Plus any other guesses.
So you can go supersonic if you go high enough for there to be no air, otherwise tough.
Interesting post on the Age blog. Relates to both FMD and the Libs gutting of services.
As a retired AQIS Officer, the LNP governments gutted AQIS (Biosecurity) my Perth Airport team eroded from 20 per shift to be lucky to have 8. Bali returning passengers stopped being 100% assessed to being allowed to exit with virtually minimally intervention. So what is Dutton and co carrying on now about no Biosecurity. They created the problem by making the Border insecure.
If proof were ever required on how Musk is a dic!..
Elon Musk accused of affair with Google co-founder’s wife..
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/elon-musk-accused-of-affair-with-google-co-founder-s-wife-20220725-p5b47n.html
Shags wife of the guy that bailed him out in 2008 GFC..
A portent of things to come ?
A question for Taylormade, although we all know he will ignore it.
Should the member for Cook, Scott Morrison, attend parliament tomorrow?
Is that actually any worse than getting one of his employees pregnant over at Neuralink?
Player One at 11.57 am
You could have had Stan Grant as a MP or failed candidate in the Liberal Party. Fortunately for him, he has some standards.
His father is a significant, in terms of language especially, Wiradjuri elder. Grant has written a few intelligent books.
He gets some important aspects of international politics wrong, but at least he tries to grapple with some big questions. That’s a lot better than most journos in Australia, or even elsewhere.
If Mr Grant has become a bit of a big-noter of late, then an intriguing question is why. Several factors are involved. Lack of humility in the media, especially in Australia, is one.
Would Mr Grant, if appointed with some responsibility for some teaching in a university, take this seriously, despite his humility deficit? I don’t know. I hope he would take it more seriously than another media celebrity noted up the thread.
I hope then, that Wiradjuri man, Stan Grant, makes the time in his important, busy schedule, to come and hear the Maiden Speech of the first Wiradjuri Man to enter federal parliament, Dr Gordon Reid, federal Member for Robertson, when that speech is given soon.
It would be bloody hard though. Every moment of the day you would be getting reminders that you are now a feather duster rather than the king. Doors that no longer open, bowers and scrapers no longer bothering to tug forelocks in your presence, the platoon of flunkies at your beck and call striving to keep you happy , nobody interested in gaining your ear, all gorn. So sad and it couldn’t happen to a more deserving chap.
Sobering thought.
The ASX200 today is about where it was at the time of the GFC(Oct 2007).
Fifteen years and gone nowhere. Compares very badly with the Dow and S and P500.
Shoots big hole in “superior economic managers” hyperbole.
What has happened to all that wealth from our exports. Exported as well!
Property investors have been right.
Not a bad strategy for SfM.
There’s no chance of him running in 2025.
There’s no benefit (to him personally) in turning up to parliament when Labor have the numbers in the House, and he doesn’t need to show face to help him win the next election.
3 years of being paid to do nothing – how else would SfM like to end his career.
And, good on Labor for announcing the abolishment of the union busting commission, and well done to the Coalition and the Australian for keeping on doing what they do best – siding with business thugs over workers
More evidence for those who say the world is descending back into violent political conflict. Myanmar has executed four democracy activists, including a former lawmaker. Myanmar is dominated by Chinese support.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/25/myanmar-junta-executes-democracy-activists-state-media?CMP=share_btn_tw
If Morrison really doesn’t show up for work it just proves what a pathetic little shit he is but Scott could be having a lend.
a r says:
Monday, July 25, 2022 at 1:36 pm
“Is that actually any worse than getting one of his employees pregnant over at Neuralink?”
Who knew he had so much spare time?
Ideally he would moderate and guide his guests for them to grapple with the big questions. Jenny Brockie seemed pretty good at it (maybe even Geoffrey Robertson in the Hypotheticals even tho he, like Grant, did/does like the sound of his own voice). But maybe that is too old school for the ABC. Maybe it is too hard for Grant. Or maybe, as you say, Grant just wants to dominate proceedings with his PsOV.
For me, part of Q&As (and other programs) problems was the choice of guests (I havent watched for a long time). Too many talking heads with agendas make it hard to prize apart problems and open up genuine ideas. Personally, I got tired of hearing politicians pushing the party line or embedded thinktankers or journos doing the same. Ideas and good debate dont come from that sort of forum – just division.
laughtong @ #1960 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 1:28 pm
Do you think Labor are adept enough to bring this up? I hope so.
Socrates @ #1969 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 1:53 pm
And people on this blog say we should play nice with China. 😐
WARNING: idiot at work.
“ Oh, and yabba, you can take your condescending attitude towards my suggestions to help Britons cope better with the heat of permanently hotter summers, put them in your pipe and smoke it. I was right, and yet again, you and your nickel and dime ‘solutions’ are no permanent solutions, simply bandaids, as anyone with true expertise will tell you. Like this guy: … ”
___________
None of C@t’s Pegasus like ‘cut n’ paste’ article addresses the points that Yabba was making about the row houses depicted in the original images that she flew off the handle over. In fact the design and construction of those row houses predate the decline in building standards being complained of by … at least 50 years. Nor do they don’t follow any ‘nipple rule’ of 21 meters rear sepertation, because there is no rear separation. Cross ventilation is of no benefit in heat waves, as one does not want to bring ANY hot air in. And so on, as so forth. Small windows, high ceilings, double brick construction and only having the outside surface of any particular house exposed to sunlight for half the day (take a closer look at those houses … ) all mean … they are well designed and constructed to deal with both extreme hot and cold conditions (which in the case of the high latitudes of Northern Europe will be the watch word – not just summer heat waves – in any expected climate shift). Add in a row of trees? By all means. Put external shutters on, like they do in similar row houses in the Mediterranean? OK, no problem. Refresh the insulation (which is probably 100 years old in many of them by now). Sounds like a good idea. Total cost to make them ‘climate ready’? Sweet fuck all.
C@tmomma @ #1973 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 1:58 pm
I hope so as well and do away with the so called efficiency dividend
Mr Grant is well-read, thoughtful, and who makes useful and often lengthy contributions to the public policy space.
The problem here is that Q&A requires someone who is well-read, thoughtful, and who deftly enables guests to make their points.
I had already stopped watching Q&A because it consistently failed to stop Coalition politicians from making tools of themselves.
The question of whether to go back to it has now been resolved for some time.
The Auditor General in 2021 rated the Coalition’s biosecurity efforts as ‘abysmal’.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/bigger-knolls-at-bondi-ben-roberts-smith-barrister-rejects-cliff-kick-claim-20220725-p5b4ao.html
Hmmm … “X” at point “B” looks like a small cliff to me … Moses turd polishing much?
He would have been a mere moment’s curiosity in the opening week of a new government. Will he get a Bronx Cheer when he finally turns up and starts earning his quarter of a million a year?
You’d like to think every journo would bring it up when any LNP pollie tries to lay the blame on the ALP.
One of the major problems with our poor level of journalism is that long term issues of government cuts and outsourcing are put in the too hard basket. Easy to just let an opposing politician blame the other guy, give the other guy a quick reply then leave it at that. Balance. Rather than a serious discussion about the benefits of government funded initiatives and from that, the reason we all pay tax and perhaps the justification for raising some taxes (or removing some tax breaks). But oh no…. Tax = bad. Debt = bad. Cuts to government services = boring.
BK [Morrison] Gutless, gormless. You name it!
Not a scintilla of gorm…
Cat
Yes being polite to China is one thing, but there is no point kidding ourselves what we are up against.
There is a photo in this Tweet of the executed Myanmar activist, a former MP, meeting Julia Gillard when in Australia for training on parliamentary procedures in 2012. Sorry not sure how to make the link work.
“Peter Yates@yatespj
The execution of democracy activist Ko Phyo Zeya Thaw is beyond shocking. In 2012, the Aust govt supported Ko Zeya Thaw as a newly elected MP, bringing him to Australia and providing him with training. Here he is meeting with PM @JuliaGillard
in parliament house. #auspol”
Ko Phyo Zeya Thaw was a democracy activist, hip-hop artist and former lawmaker
https://twitter.com/yatespj/status/1551391821674483712/photo/1
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FYelVo_aIAAtiEa?format=png&name=small
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FYelVo_aIAAtiEa
Will there be a Honolulu stopover on the way home from Tokyo?
Sceptic
AKA a snifter of brandy :).
laughtong at 2:02 pm
That particular Keating legacy will be around a while longer.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7742402/labor-vows-no-spending-cuts-to-aps/
Barilaro has been involved in yet another incident of questionable nature. In his defamation action, he claimed he was so besmirched by the respondent(s) that he was fearful of going out. Yet he goes out to a bar in Manly at night and gets involved in an altercation with a cameraman, at the height of the imbroglio over his withdrawn appointment as NSW Trade envoy to NYC. This bloke’s a walking disaster, an embarrassment, who should never again be within cooee of the corridors of power.
__________________________________________
According to Moses, it isn’t a cliff, it’s more like a sandy knoll:
[‘War veteran Ben Roberts-Smith did not kick a handcuffed Afghan prisoner off a cliff and there was no cliff at the site of the alleged incident, his barrister has told his Federal Court defamation case.
One of the newspapers’ key allegations was that Roberts-Smith kicked an unarmed and handcuffed villager named Ali Jan off a cliff in Darwan on September 11, 2012, before the man was shot dead. But Arthur Moses, SC, acting for Roberts-Smith, told the court on Monday there was “no clear contemporaneous evidence as to the geography of the area including, importantly, the cliff … which it is said Ali Jan was kicked off”.
He said a “photo from an overwatch position, which is in evidence”, was not clear and “with all due respect, Your Honour, there is no cliff”.
“It’s more like a sandy knoll. I mean, there are bigger knolls at Bondi Beach here in Sydney or Henley Beach in Adelaide,” he told Justice Anthony Besanko…’]
https://www.smh.com.au/national/bigger-knolls-at-bondi-ben-roberts-smith-barrister-rejects-cliff-kick-claim-20220725-p5b4ao.html
‘Lawyers occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened.’ – Churchill.
MPs do have to turn up some of the time (I think it is once every 3 months). Morrison can’t stay away forever.
Morrison is giving Dutton clear soil.
Mavis
What a shame it was not a ‘grassy knoll’ .
Mavis
What a shame it was not a ‘grassy knoll’ .
A_E
To this photographer and not lawyer, quite extraordinary.
FWIW, there is a photographic truc being used in that image. The vantage point from which the image was captured (presumably a drone or a helo) is close to (but not quite at) right angles to the slope between where ‘X’ marks the spot and the river bed. What that does to the viewer’s perception is to flatten the slope out rather than giving an accurate idea of the angle of the slope to the riverbed. Given a quarter of an hour on location I would have been able to capture an image which combined steep and jumbled bits on that slope – down which someone who was tied up would not have been able to control their descent – until the riverbed did that for them. An idea of the slope can be gained by looking at the verticals of the buildings in proportion to the horizontal of the buildings as they relate to ‘x’ marks the spot. IMO, it is not a cliff but a steep slope, noting that short sections of the slope have vertical drops.
The positioning of the ‘X’ is critical. Given that it is a key bit of factual information the placement is sloppy. It has actually been marked on the side of a vertical wall rather than on a path. Some sections of that path have a vertical drop immediately below the path. Some have a jumble. Some have a smooth but steep slope.
Immediately below the ‘X’ in the image is a ruined building with a flat bit (ancient floor of the house) which is bordered on the downhill side by a remnant wall. Someone kicked from ‘X’ in that location would not have reached the river bed. A few meters to the right and the alleged victim would have rolled to the river bed. A few meters further on and the alleged victim would have had a vertical drop of a couple of meters before a rough tumble to the river bed.
Aorta breach the bastard. Robocop the fucker.
max @ #1856 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 8:23 am
The Vic Libs are a sham and a sick joke.
Matthew Guy is lame duck and totally unqualified to lead Victoria.
BS Fairman
“MPs do have to turn up some of the time (I think it is once every 3 months). Morrison can’t stay away forever.”
We’ve had a Member for Manilla.
Perhaps now a Member for Maoui?
He never answered questions as PM. So nothing has changed as a backbencher.
poroti:
Monday, July 25, 2022 at 2:36 pm
Mavis
According to Moses, it isn’t a cliff, it’s more like a sandy knoll:
[‘What a shame it was not a ‘grassy knoll’.’]
“‘You are awful but I like you”:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wkLRZzukcJc
Any swing to the Liberals wont be an endorsement of Matthew Guy’s leadership.
C@t, rifting off Socrates:
Socrates: “More evidence for those who say the world is descending back into violent political conflict. Myanmar has executed four democracy activists, including a former lawmaker. Myanmar is dominated by Chinese support.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/25/myanmar-junta-executes-democracy-activists-state-media?CMP=share_btn_tw”
C@t: “And people on this blog say we should play nice with China. ”
___________
Saudia Arabia murders journalists by luring them into foreign consulates. Saudi depends on American support. … “And people on this blog say we should play nice with America.”
This is a great game: I call it “2 degrees of separation for geo-political slut shaming”.
Who wants a go?
NathanA @ Monday, July 25, 2022 at 12:36 pm
“Oh, and Griff, the research/teaching split is a very different issue depending on your specialisation. Some areas need very little money, others need a lot, and I think a one-sized fits all answer is a huge problem all in itself.”
I agree that a one size fits all solution does not provide perfection for all. My concern is when we shift from individual variation in teaching/research ratios to organisational variation. Having seen the decoupling first hand at an institution in the UK, it reached a point where student income was heavily siphoned from schools across to research centres, with a two class academic system involving academics in schools teaching and those in research centres conducting research. Students had little to no exposure to researchers.
At this point we should ask, what is the purpose of a university? Is it to be a place of higher learning? Such a model simply fails to meet the brief.
So Moses doesn’t seem to be denying that BRS kicked a prisoner from a high place, focusing on whether the slope met the definition of a cliff.