With the flood of post-election analysis having subsided and opinion polling yet to properly crank up again (expect that to change when parliament resumes next week), there is not a lot to report. Roy Morgan’s weekly video update last week informed us that Labor leads 53.5-46.5 in its latest round of polling, out from 53-47 the last time it offered a full set of results in the middle of last month, but it didn’t deem fit to offer anything further. The international leadership approval tracking poll by Morning Consult suggests Anthony Albanese’s standing has continued to improve, his approval having cracked 60% and disapproval down to 24%, which compares with 57% and 26% when I last reported on it three weeks ago.
I do have another new entry to relate from the burgeoning field of online psephological tools, courtesy of Alex Jago and Ben Messenger, providing a triangular representation of the increasingly common occurrence of three-cornered contests between Labor, the Coalition and the Greens. This can just as easily be adapted to any combination of three parties or candidates you care to choose, as long as you have a reasonable handle on how preferences are likely to flow between them.
The starting point here is each party’s share of the vote at the second last preference count, to be identified henceforth as 3CP, or three-candidate preferred. The tool’s default preference splits are 80-20 against the Coalition when Labor or the Greens are excluded, roughly consistent with all past experience, and 70-30 in favour of Labor when the Coalition is excluded, which is about what happens when Coalition preferences are so directed. On the last relevant occasion I can think of when they went the other way, when Adam Bandt first sought re-election in Melbourne in 2010, they favoured the Greens 80-20. Happily, the tool allows you to set the splits however you desire.
To explain what’s going on here, I’ll stick with the defaults. The Coalition 3CP is on the x-axis, the Greens are on the y-axis, and the balance belongs to Labor. On the left we see the 3CP needed by the Greens to defeat Labor when the Coalition is uncompetitive, starting at 50% where the Coalition has no votes at all. At this end of the triangle, the dividing line between a Greens win and a Labor win is broken into three parts. As the Coalition’s 3CP increases from nothing to 29%, the Greens’ required 3CP falls gently from 50% to 42% while Labor’s falls sharply from 50% to 30%, reflecting Labor’s higher share of Coalition preferences.
Once the Coalition gets to 30%, they reach the point where they might make the final count in a race where both Labor and the Greens are competitive, without being competitive themselves. Such was the case in Brisbane and Macnamara at the May election, which is why the AEC conducted indicative 3CP counts to provide an early indication of who would ultimately win there out of Labor and the Greens. As this presents the Greens with a new winning scenario where Labor runs third, here their minimum winning 3CP quickly falls from from 42% to 34%. But once the Coalition 3CP is significantly over a third, there is no longer enough left over for both the Greens and Labor to be competitive. Here the 3CP needed by either reduces from 34% to 29% as the Coalition 3CP increases from 34% to 44%.
With the Coalition only receiving 20% of preferences, they need fully 45% on 3CP to be in contention themselves. Even here they only make it if the remainder splits about evenly between Labor and the Greens, since the preferences they receive diminish together with the 3CP of whoever out of Labor and the Greens drops out. From that point on, the Coalition’s chances steadily increase to 100% where their 3CP reaches 50%, at which point they win before Labor or the Greens are excluded.
Given that we are top ten performers in the per capita emissions stakes, I assume that an effective climate trigger would halt all migration into Australia. This would, presumably, include the refugee intake.
Hh
The could always resort to paying people properly.
frednk
Thanks for the link on China’s real estate/banking issues.
Damage discovered on a new Manly ferry just months after it began carrying passengers is expected to worsen and occur on the other overseas-built vessels, explains Matt O’Sullivan. Top effort!
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/damage-to-new-manly-ferries-to-worsen-leaked-report-says-20220627-p5awzv.html
NSW Liberals seem to like buying sub standard shit from overseas. Nath seems to be in full support.
https://www.aumanufacturing.com.au/nsw-imports-trains-that-dont-fit-tunnels-now-ferries-that-wont-go-under-bridges
https://www.governmentnews.com.au/new-sydney-train-fleet-plagued-by-dangerous-design-flaw/
Aaron newton says:
Monday, July 25, 2022 at 7:51 am
if mathew guy was triying to present him self as moore progresive whiy choose conservative dcandadatezs you get rid off bernie thin then replace him with a clone newbery is triying to presnt libs as pro climate change
—————-
It shows that Matthew Guy isn’t calling the shots. Guy himself should be unelectable based on his political history; but at least compared to some powerful people in his party, he has some sense of realpolitik. He knows that having these nut jobs on the ballot will go down like a lead balloon in Victoria and make seats like his own vulnerable to Teal equivalents. But he’s powerless to do anything about it.
Covid beds take a pause at around 8.5/8.6%.
Not good.
max @ #1469 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 8:23 am
It simply points to the rise of Christian Theocratic Neo Fascists, the world over.
My mum who contracted covid nearly two weeks, has recovered without a hint of residual effects.
She is fully vaxxed.
The anti vital meds were given to her as soon as she got the diagnosis.
Morning all. Thanks BK for the roundup, which you faithfully summarise. That being said, whilst I find your summaries unbiased, I do not always find the article equally neutral.
This article in the AFR is a case in point. Why should there be wage restraint?? We need wage growth to stimulate consumer spending. The claim that inflation is due to wage growth is plainly false. Wage growth might force some businesses to reign in currently extraordinary profit levels.
“Treasurer Jim Chalmers needs to commit the government to the wage and budget restraint needed to reset the foundations for sustainable increases in Australian living standards, urges the AFR’s editorial.”
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/labor-too-must-do-whatever-its-takes-to-fight-inflation-20220721-p5b3lr
The AFR is not the paper it once was. It is a cheer squad for corporate lobbyists now.
One for PB’s technical people – sounds like a breakthrough in electric aircraft propulsion.
I think the correct tag is the:
Christian Union Neo Totalitarianists.
Good news for victoria
Victoria has the strongest jobs market, the quarterly report found, following recent Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures revealing the state’s unemployment rate is at a near 50-year low of 3.2 per cent
Holden Hillbilly
“Store manager Rhys Taylor said they were losing staff quicker than they could hire them, but the sign-on bonus, a refer-a-friend incentive scheme and a national job advertising drive, had helped to deliver up to 50 new hires.”
https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/mcdonald-s-bids-for-workers-with-1000-sign-on-bonuses-20220724-p5b44p
Extraordinary! So offering more pay does attract more workers. Capitalism is not dead!
And the same paper calls for wage restraint elsewhere in the same issue…
I have a question for our doctors.
If the major portal of entry for COVID-19 is through the nose, would it benefit me and reduce the likelihood of my catching the virus if I rubbed hand sanitiser around my nostril skin?
Thanks BK
“ The SMH editorial says that the Morrison government’s election-day tactics crossed the line. (It was as illustrative and it was disgusting!)
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-government-s-election-day-tactics-crossed-the-line-20220724-p5b43p.html”
And yet this entirely unprincipled and unscrupulous individual continues to masquerade at churches as though he is an actual Christian. Those churches should be almost as ashamed as the individual they’re promoting.
Cronus
doG works in mysterious ways. As do some of his stormtroopers.
Boerwar
That FICAC is going to need an awful lot of immigrant lawyers as well.
BK this editorial from Bevan Shield is good, and illustrates that Morrison was prepared to sacrifice ANY principle, including national security, to cling to power.
“The SMH editorial says that the Morrison government’s election-day tactics crossed the line. (It was as illustrative and it was disgusting!)”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-government-s-election-day-tactics-crossed-the-line-20220724-p5b43p.html
In my view there are some implications from this:
– Why would it stop here? The AUKUS sub deal was merely a wedge with no delivery plan either.
Labor should feel no obligation to stick to it exactly.
In the Lowy poll 70% of Australian favor getting SSNs. But nobody says they have to be American.
– Defence, especially procurement decisions, needs to be a priority target for a Federal ICAC.
– Other previous Ministerial security decisions must now be suspect too.
– Peter Dutton has questions to answer.
Thanks, BK.
#weatheronPB
Dew lingers on cool grass.
Small furtive movements betray the hidden things.
Cool clear blue rests above.
Socrates
“ The AFR is not the paper it once was. It is a cheer squad for corporate lobbyists now.”
+1, very disappointing and now unreliable aren’t they.
Austerity delivers confidence and that confidence will trickle down
IPA right wing ideology, the Liberal Party under the control of the IPA (old guard eg Kroger who came from the IPA) and the right wing Bible basher and God makes babies memberships (Bastiaan, Sukkar and their likes in other Divisions nationally)
Hence the 9 Entertainment (Costello) views carried by the AFR and other media ownerships
The IPA is still fighting for control
And Guy is there courtesy of the Bible group numbers – the action against Finn and the changed position on climate seeing his position in jeopardy
Has anyone heard from Snappy Tom recently?
C@tmomma @ #1865 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 9:05 am
Guessing not, because:
1. Hand sanitizer requires direct contact to be effective; and
2. The virus doesn’t crawl into your nose over your skin, it’s carried within the air you inhale, the vast majority of which doesn’t contact your skin
Plus probably unpleasant to apply hand sanitizer on/around mucous membranes, and a decent chance of cross-contaminating with whatever pathogens are on your hands while doing so.
“Monday, July 25, 2022 at 9:18 am
Socrates
“ The AFR is not the paper it once was. It is a cheer squad for corporate lobbyists now.”
+1, very disappointing and now unreliable aren’t the”
It was always a paper of that nature, but they deliberately chose to add to that all the elements that makes fox / sky support lies like Jan 6.
If, like Bullshit Man, you believe Dog wanted you to be PM because he has a ‘a plan’ for you then there are no boundaries. You have carte blanche because anything you do to keep your fat arse on the PM’s chair is working to see Dog’s will is done. Even a sin is fine if it is in the name of seeing Dog’s will done. Any opposition to that ‘plan’ is obviously working for Satan, which of course also justifies anything. (The nutters of Bullshit Man’s crew are , apparently, big on Satan being present and active. ) Which of
I await the Australian tourism industry to pop its head above the parapet:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2022/jul/25/anthony-albanese-47th-parliament-climate-trigger-covid-wave-adf-aged-care-murray-watt-foot-and-mouth-disease
Maybe Scott accidentally became PM then won in 2019 while God wasn’t looking and it was God’s plan to get rid of him.
The AFR is Stutched.
Pea souper fog over much of Sydney today, clear blue skies above it.
Angus Taylor showing off his leadership credentials !
The LNP doing what comes naturally under Morrison, (the door stop accidental 2019 PM) contorting climate change legislation and laws to maximize returns for the chosen few, bugger the ethics, bugger climate change, bugger the budget.
The MSM incapable of integrity, the reporting lackeys miserably shackled, allowing a non caring, ignorant public to remain unaware of the unlawful illegal complicity, rampant throughout the liberal and national parties to commit fraud on a massive scale perpetrated with protection a given.
The usual “everything is god’s work” and “I did nothing illegal” to the fore as the public’s money is used to facilitate the game of lining your pocket and greasing the moving parts of corruption gone berserk.
Transparency should be the first order task for the FICAC with sufficient funding, personnel and time to see FICAC allowed to complete its work.
Australia, as a modern functioning democracy has been set back a generation by a succession of liberal and national governments, in both individual states and federally, with the ascension of morally and ethically bankrupt leaders and their financiers, allowed free squatter rights to pillage the now obviously “out of sight out of mind” pillar of modern Australia.
Any shade of green supporting a future should be backing Albanese and the new open government to rid Australia of the feral, undemocratic and corrupt illegitimate offspring of the liberal and national sordid coupling.
Carbon credits just another now unhealthy by-product of greed.
Steve777
Usually once the fog clears, a beautiful day emerges.
Having said that. My youngest has been working at festival in Byron since last week.
The weather has been a challenge to say the least.
[‘Agriculture Minister Murray Watt is currently taking questions from RN Breakfast host Patricia Karvelas.
“Australia remains foot and mouth disease free,” he said at the top of the interview.
“Despite the discovery of those products [with dead particles of the virus], despite all the hysteria we’re seeing created by the Opposition.
“We have absolutely no evidence at all that the [live] virus is in Australia and it was a little unfortunate that some of the headlines generated after I made public that information.”
Watt then got stuck into those sitting on the Opposition benches. Here’s a taste:
There’s foot and mouth disease outbreaks in about 70 countries around the world at the moment and we’ve never closed the borders to those countries. I mean, I don’t know where the Opposition stands on this because they’ve got some people saying close the borders. Some people say no.
It’s a bit ironic people, people like David Littleproud lecturing me about what to do, when we’re doing a range of things he never bothered doing when the outbreak got to Indonesia. There were no sanitation mats installed at airports when it got to Indonesia. There weren’t even sanitation mats ordered.’] – SMH
Western liberal democracies work best when there’s an effective opposition. I very much we’ll have one with Dutton at the helm. He’ll be a carbon copy of that guy who was dumped as PM & lost his seat to boot. Littleproud is following in that grand Tory tradition.
UK Cartoons:
Sigh. Dutts and the Opposition are going hard with: ‘The government has lost control of the borders!!!’
re Foot and Mouth. When the live virus hasn’t even been detected in Australia yet and despite the damage it would do to businesses, which the Coalition apparently are the party of.
They really need to move on from Dutton. He’s the ‘Everything Old is New Again’ Opposition Leader. No imagination. Out of ideas. Can’t buy a clue.
Victoria says: Monday, July 25, 2022 at 8:49 am
My mum who contracted covid nearly two weeks, has recovered without a hint of residual effects.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Great News Victoria !!!! …….. hope her recovery continues to always be positive
C@tmomma @ #1866 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 9:05 am
Not significantly. The virus binds to the internal mucosa, not the external skin. The alcohol in hand sanitiser kills the virus by drying the skin rapidly. This does not work well on internal mucosa – and hurts.
“Sigh. Dutts and the Opposition are going hard with: ‘The government has lost control of the borders!!!’”
Thing is, they have nothing else and are pretty much locked into the mindset that anything to do with Borders is a plus for the Libs.
Also, with Parliament opening, they know that its likely that Dutton will be called on to apologize publicly for the “On Water Matters on Election Day” doings and be pinned on what he as LOTO will do about it…..like a public rebuke for the now back-bencher who was responsible maybe?? 🙂
Right now, he needs something, however weak, to distract the Media from what a fwark up his old boss is.
a r @ #1489 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 9:27 am
It wasn’t unpleasant to apply. I didn’t put it on the mucous membranes themselves. However, I guess you are correct about the vector. I was just trying to triangulate wrt nasal sprays being effective at preventing the virus getting into your system. Thanks for replying. 🙂
rhwombat @ #1502 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 10:02 am
Thank you as well. 🙂
C@tmomma says:
Monday, July 25, 2022 at 9:05 am
I have a question for our doctors.
If the major portal of entry for COVID-19 is through the nose, would it benefit me and reduce the likelihood of my catching the virus if I rubbed hand sanitiser around my nostril skin?
—————————————————————
Not a dr cat, but my guess is you’d get pretty drunk snorting that stuff. It’s almost pure alcohol!
MABWM @ #1506 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 10:05 am
😆
imacca,
Obviously the Opposition will blame the Good Girl, Karen Andrews. 😐
Cat
I have a question for our doctors.
If the major portal of entry for COVID-19 is through the nose, would it benefit me and reduce the likelihood of my catching the virus if I rubbed hand sanitiser around my nostril skin?
Perhaps you should kick the TGA up the rear end to approve “Viraleze” nasal spray anti covid and all variants including Omicron and Influenza type A and B kills (in the nostrils) !!!!!
https://au.news.yahoo.com/viraleze-nasal-spray-protects-against-094500288.html
frednk @6:44 am
https://www.theage.com.au/national/a-high-status-gig-economy-how-we-have-failed-our-researchers-20220720-p5b347.html
Science in Australia is broken. This quote from the article, as mundane as it is, is the heart of it.
In other words, since Abbott and continued by subsequent Coalition governments we have turned our backs on science. Science is an active process, sustained by research. Without research there is no science. And I don’t mean just new science, I mean the old science too. Without ongoing research even established knowledge dies. At the very least you have to maintain the ability to understand it, and you can only do that through research. Science does not live in books. (I am troubled by the phrase “the science is established”, implying that it is done, over, and finished.)
So what the article describes is an appalling ignorant attitude towards science.
It’s a disheartening read. PhDs are the stuff of passion. That’s the only thing that will sustain you through the handful of years of day and night unending slog. There are no part time PhDs, which is why the “gig-economy” description is so terrible. When I was chasing mine, the effort was described to me as becoming the person who knows more than anyone else on my topic. Nothing less was acceptable. It took years. It maintained what was and added to it.
As to why anyone would bother, it’s the thrill of doing something you’re very good at, the lure of finding something no-one has found before, and the rare bursts of joy when you learn or discover something new. Any long term reward is the private confidence and joy at having achieved something hard. There are precious few accolades.
Publications aimed at the business sector have traditionally not included much RW political bullshit because their readers are interested in facts that have an impact on their businesses. They want to know about political developments but, being mostly conservative voters, do not need to be told how evil the left of centre parties are.
The AFR still carries real business news but that sort of information is nowadays readily obtainable via a host of specialised business intelligence services. International business news websites like Bloomberg provide a far better source of news and relatively impartial political commentary than does the AFR.
Is the AFR cross subsidised by the rest of Nine/Fairfax? Almost certainly. How long will it continue in the current format? Who knows? Without the influence of Costello and appointees like Stutchbury and Coorey, it could could return to its proper role as a source of business news without the political propaganda.
What Dutton and Littleproud are deflecting from. Just another area of Morrison Government incompetence and slackness. Relevant minister? Dutton!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2021-06-08/australia-biosecurity-slammed-in-auditor-general-report/100179624
Meanwhile to the North. Indonesia looks like it is buying a Russian-Indian developed supersonic cruise missile, the BrahMos. Could be good news or a concern for Australia.
Indonesia on the Cusp of BrahMos Missile
Purchase: Report
By Sebastian Strangio
July 22, 2022
……………Indonesia is reportedly hoping to fit the missile onboard its warships. According to FinancialExpress.com, a team from BrahMos has already visited an Indonesian shipyard to study the possibility of installing the missile.
https://thediplomat.com/2022/07/indonesia-on-the-cusp-of-brahmos-missile-purchase-report/