Bizarre pseph triangle (open thread)

Onwards and upwards for Anthony Albanese’s leadership ratings, and a look at a new tool for analysing three-cornered contests.

With the flood of post-election analysis having subsided and opinion polling yet to properly crank up again (expect that to change when parliament resumes next week), there is not a lot to report. Roy Morgan’s weekly video update last week informed us that Labor leads 53.5-46.5 in its latest round of polling, out from 53-47 the last time it offered a full set of results in the middle of last month, but it didn’t deem fit to offer anything further. The international leadership approval tracking poll by Morning Consult suggests Anthony Albanese’s standing has continued to improve, his approval having cracked 60% and disapproval down to 24%, which compares with 57% and 26% when I last reported on it three weeks ago.

I do have another new entry to relate from the burgeoning field of online psephological tools, courtesy of Alex Jago and Ben Messenger, providing a triangular representation of the increasingly common occurrence of three-cornered contests between Labor, the Coalition and the Greens. This can just as easily be adapted to any combination of three parties or candidates you care to choose, as long as you have a reasonable handle on how preferences are likely to flow between them.

The starting point here is each party’s share of the vote at the second last preference count, to be identified henceforth as 3CP, or three-candidate preferred. The tool’s default preference splits are 80-20 against the Coalition when Labor or the Greens are excluded, roughly consistent with all past experience, and 70-30 in favour of Labor when the Coalition is excluded, which is about what happens when Coalition preferences are so directed. On the last relevant occasion I can think of when they went the other way, when Adam Bandt first sought re-election in Melbourne in 2010, they favoured the Greens 80-20. Happily, the tool allows you to set the splits however you desire.

To explain what’s going on here, I’ll stick with the defaults. The Coalition 3CP is on the x-axis, the Greens are on the y-axis, and the balance belongs to Labor. On the left we see the 3CP needed by the Greens to defeat Labor when the Coalition is uncompetitive, starting at 50% where the Coalition has no votes at all. At this end of the triangle, the dividing line between a Greens win and a Labor win is broken into three parts. As the Coalition’s 3CP increases from nothing to 29%, the Greens’ required 3CP falls gently from 50% to 42% while Labor’s falls sharply from 50% to 30%, reflecting Labor’s higher share of Coalition preferences.

Once the Coalition gets to 30%, they reach the point where they might make the final count in a race where both Labor and the Greens are competitive, without being competitive themselves. Such was the case in Brisbane and Macnamara at the May election, which is why the AEC conducted indicative 3CP counts to provide an early indication of who would ultimately win there out of Labor and the Greens. As this presents the Greens with a new winning scenario where Labor runs third, here their minimum winning 3CP quickly falls from from 42% to 34%. But once the Coalition 3CP is significantly over a third, there is no longer enough left over for both the Greens and Labor to be competitive. Here the 3CP needed by either reduces from 34% to 29% as the Coalition 3CP increases from 34% to 44%.

With the Coalition only receiving 20% of preferences, they need fully 45% on 3CP to be in contention themselves. Even here they only make it if the remainder splits about evenly between Labor and the Greens, since the preferences they receive diminish together with the 3CP of whoever out of Labor and the Greens drops out. From that point on, the Coalition’s chances steadily increase to 100% where their 3CP reaches 50%, at which point they win before Labor or the Greens are excluded.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,208 comments on “Bizarre pseph triangle (open thread)”

Comments Page 42 of 45
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  1. Victoriasays:
    Monday, July 25, 2022 at 4:48 pm
    Every day for past 3 yrs, @LiberalVictoria & media cheerleaders (@theheraldsun @theage @3AW693 @abcnews) have relentless bashed VIC.

    Spread misinformation & disinformation about the economy & way of life.

    Victoria is best-performing state: CommSec
    https://t.co/yRDTxyIoJb

    Taylormaid, Steelydan, nath
    Do you have anything to say regarding this unusual development now that Melbourne was the longest lockdown city in the world?
    Weird isn’t it? Do you think someone cooked the numbers? 🙂

  2. Will Albo deny Morrison a ‘pair’ ?

    Also, my hotel wifi has a password that caused me a double take…morrison

  3. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, July 25, 2022 at 4:32 pm

    Is Shorten trying to woo sections of the SDA …?

    Birthing parent may be the right words, but it sure isn’t worth having a culture war over. If the hard right want to be dicks, why bother.

  4. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Monday, July 25, 2022 at 2:11 pm
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/bigger-knolls-at-bondi-ben-roberts-smith-barrister-rejects-cliff-kick-claim-20220725-p5b4ao.html

    “Hmmm … “X” at point “B” looks like a small cliff to me … Moses turd polishing much?”

    The term ‘grasping at straws’ comes to mind. Mr Moses doesn’t appear to have much to work with. Not to mention that Ivan’s Trump died merely falling down flight of stairs.


  5. nathsays:
    Monday, July 25, 2022 at 4:49 pm
    Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, July 25, 2022 at 4:32 pm

    Is Shorten trying to woo sections of the SDA …?
    ______
    Not a bad question. They are the only other force on the Vic Right apart from the Cons that could restore him to a position of power and influence that he was accustomed to.

    nath
    What is your opinion on Victorian economy performing well? Weird isn’t it?

  6. nath @ #2022 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 4:11 pm

    People were jealous of Musk before, now he’s been proven to be a legendary pants man as well it’s gone to a new level. 🙂

    He says he’s doing it because ‘Mars needs people’. I hope he behaves as a good family man and father and lives with his family there. 😐


  7. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Monday, July 25, 2022 at 2:53 pm
    Any swing to the Liberals wont be an endorsement of Matthew Guy’s leadership.

    Any swing to Labor won’t be an endorsement of any of our daily news papers, that is for sure.
    Circulation going down, can’t even swing an election. Do you think they will do bit of self reflection.


  8. frednksays:
    Monday, July 25, 2022 at 5:02 pm
    Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, July 25, 2022 at 4:32 pm

    Is Shorten trying to woo sections of the SDA …?

    Birthing parent may be the right words, but it sure isn’t worth having a culture war over. If the hard right want to be dicks, why bother.

    frednk
    I don’t know what you mean but isn’t right that Shorten was initially married into Victorian Liberal party royalty?
    Wasn’t the Victorian media was not hostile to him because of that?

  9. Rex,

    There’s some big cumulus clouds here that you could shout at.

    I think they may develop into cumulonimbus later and shout back at you.


  10. Boerwarsays:
    Monday, July 25, 2022 at 5:10 pm
    I believe that Barilaro is complaining about police harrassment.

    BW
    Barilaro implied that he is not a ‘Criminal’. 🙂

    https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/25/nsw-police-investigate-altercation-john-barilaro-camera-operator-manly-sydney-street?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw%3D%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16587332612499&csi=1&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Faustralia-news%2F2022%2Fjul%2F25%2Fnsw-police-investigate-altercation-john-barilaro-camera-operator-manly-sydney-street

    From the Guardian:
    “This is why cameramen are chasing me down the street like I’m a criminal,” he said. “There are no criminal charges against me. I’ve done nothing wrong. Nothing wrong.”

  11. Dont think shortin will return to power will probaly serve a term to fix up ndis then be sent off to woshington to replace sinodenos as ambasada we still do not have one in uk yet the sda currently part of nmarles group

  12. Boerwar at 5:10 pm

    I believe that Barilaro is complaining about police harrassment.

    As did Ronnie Biggs and Al Capone 😆

  13. Tthink shortin cansild the trial so he was lacking relivents him saying it was to stop a culture the teligraph only wrote one article abbout it and shortin may have forgotten how good morrisons culture war on trans gender using cathrine deves worked

  14. Jackol,

    Engaging with any culture war fodder has no upside for this ALP government, so it’s good to see them sidestep getting bogged down on that kind of stuff. Having an NDIS that is properly funded and working for those who need it matters. Alternative terms for ‘mother’ not so much.

    It seems the form with the words “birthing parent” rather than mother, was “trialed” beginning March this year in three hospitals.

    Given how obsessive the previous Federal government was about anything to do with gender, especially things that feed in to culture wars themes, I suspect it was either a trap for a new Labor government, or something ready-made for the Coalition, if they did win, to say “look what we saved you from”.

    Also, it was “lucky” that a prominent right-wing TERF(?) gave birth there recently, so she could find the insidious wording and alert the whole world.

  15. From the Guardian live blog …

    Alok Sharma, the British Conservative cabinet minister who was president of last year’s COP26 UN climate conference in Glasgow, is in Canberra today as part of his global advocacy role for stronger action that lives up to the 2015 Paris agreement.

    At a press conference in the park, he told journalists his key message was:

    “I very much welcome the fact that Australia is back on the frontline in the fight against climate change.”

    While Sharma described the government’s 2030 target of a 43% cut below 2005 levels as a “great start”, he added “I think there’s an opportunity to build on this”.

    He was also asked about Australia’s hopes of hosting a major climate summit in partnership with Pacific countries and what other countries would expect from it if it was successful. He replied:

    “When you do become the host and you ask others to show ambition they in turn very politely ask you to explain what your level of ambition is. I spent a large part of 2020 talking to countries, explaining to them that they’ve got to show more ambition and I was always asked what was the UK’s 2030 emissions reduction target.”

    Britain’s target is 68% cut by 2030 compared with 1990 levels. It is equivalent to a 63% cut below 2005 levels.

    A diplomatic way of saying “Do better, Australia”

  16. Britain’s consumption of embedded emissions by way of materials manufactured in China (and elsewhere) is enormous and is much, much larger than it was in 1990.

    If the British message is that it is wicked if you dig it up, wicked if you burn it making stuff, but NOT wicked if you consume the end product then no wonder they failed miserably at COP26.

  17. Boerwar @ #2076 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 5:42 pm

    Britain’s consumption of embedded emissions by way of materials manufactured in China (and elsewhere) is enormous and is much, much larger than it was in 1990.

    And Australia is in exactly the same boat, of course. Most people don’t seem to realize that 30% of everything manufactured in the world is manufactured in China. But hey, at least China could be using good old clean Australian coal, right? That would make it all so much better!

    EDIT: Oops. 30%, not 80%. The 80% is specific to solar panels.

  18. C@tmommasays:
    Monday, July 25, 2022 at 5:07 pm
    nath @ #2022 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 4:11 pm

    People were jealous of Musk before, now he’s been proven to be a legendary pants man as well it’s gone to a new level.

    He says he’s doing it because ‘Mars needs people’. I hope he behaves as a good family man and father and lives with his family there.

    Here is one persons opinion of Musk, his first wife:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lkQPpSOtz8

  19. No mention of Albo’s caucus speech on here? Just watched it and thought it was great. @9NewsAus on twitter has the full recording


  20. frednk
    I don’t know what you mean but isn’t right that Shorten was initially married into Victorian Liberal party royalty?
    Wasn’t the Victorian media was not hostile to him because of that?

    The Victorian media is universally hostile to Dan Andrews, that is my point. Well beyond any rational behavior. The AGE was continually stacked it on the port deepening ( it was going to ruin, I tell you ruin Port Phillip bay), grade separation, people aren’t going to like train travelers peaking into their back yard, and the bullshit goes on.

    As to Shorten, yes he was previously married to “Liberal Royalty”and as Chloe and Bill were both still married when they were expecting their first child, there is a bit for the tut-tut set to go on about.

    I am surprised nath hasn’t gone on and on about that.

  21. Player Onesays:
    Monday, July 25, 2022 at 5:35 pm

    From the Guardian live blog …

    Alok Sharma, the British Conservative cabinet minister who was president of last year’s COP26 UN climate conference in Glasgow, is in Canberra today as part of his global advocacy role for stronger action that lives up to the 2015 Paris agreement.

    At a press conference in the park, he told journalists his key message was:

    “I very much welcome the fact that Australia is back on the frontline in the fight against climate change.”

    While Sharma described the government’s 2030 target of a 43% cut below 2005 levels as a “great start”, he added “I think there’s an opportunity to build on this”.

    He was also asked about Australia’s hopes of hosting a major climate summit in partnership with Pacific countries and what other countries would expect from it if it was successful. He replied:

    “When you do become the host and you ask others to show ambition they in turn very politely ask you to explain what your level of ambition is. I spent a large part of 2020 talking to countries, explaining to them that they’ve got to show more ambition and I was always asked what was the UK’s 2030 emissions reduction target.”

    Britain’s target is 68% cut by 2030 compared with 1990 levels. It is equivalent to a 63% cut below 2005 levels.

    A diplomatic way of saying “Do better, Australia”

    I would suggest he is highlighting what is possible if you don’t have 9 years of inaction.

    The UK didn’t start addressing climate change yesterday.

  22. frednk says:
    Monday, July 25, 2022 at 5:55 pm

    I am surprised nath hasn’t gone on and on about that.
    _____
    You mean like those getting into Musk for possibly straying? I don’t make it a habit to judge people on their intimate relationships.

  23. Britain shut down their coal mining industry before global heating became a matter of concern to politicians and voters.

  24. Player Onesays:
    Monday, July 25, 2022 at 6:07 pm

    Barney in Cherating @ #2081 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 5:59 pm

    I would suggest he is highlighting what is possible if you don’t have 9 years of inaction.

    I suggest you re-read what he said. He is talking about our current policies and lack of ambition.

    He’s talking about Australia’s desire to hold an international climate conference, saying that you really need to be at the head of the pack to do so. Obviously after the last 9 years that is not the case.

    He acknowledes Australia is now committed to acting and what they are proposing will give the basis to build on.

  25. Themunz says:
    Monday, July 25, 2022 at 6:20 pm

    BeaglieBoysays:
    Monday, July 25, 2022 at 6:15 pm

    Musk’s first wife’s opinion is the exception.
    _____________
    Jealousy is poison.

  26. A couple of hours ago school curriculum came up. I have kids in high school. They have assignments. I try to help, but my brain says ‘you were taught this 40 years ago. you never used it other than to do a puzzle, what is the point of it’

    They don’t get taught civics or finance or critical thinking or office computing but spend time on archaic math and f’n Shakespeare.

    I truly feel they are wasting their time.

  27. Vensays:
    Monday, July 25, 2022 at 5:01 pm
    _____________________
    Where’s the corruption indicator ?
    We would be way out in front on that one.

  28. Taylormade says:
    Monday, July 25, 2022 at 6:28 pm

    Vensays:
    Monday, July 25, 2022 at 5:01 pm
    _____________________
    Where’s the corruption indicator ?
    We would be way out in front on that one.

    How does it go? lobster with a mobster.

  29. ”I would suggest he is highlighting what is possible if you don’t have 9 years of inaction.“

    It’s actually worse than that, more like 27 years if we choose our starting point as COP 1 (Berlin 1995) or 25 years if COP 3 (Kyoto 1997). Nothing was done until steps were taken by the Howard Government from 2006 then the Rudd Government after Howard’s defeat in 2007 to develop an emission trading scheme. This was blocked by the Coalition and Greens in 2009. In 2012 the Gillard Government implemented a carbon pricing scheme, which was dismantled after two years by the Abbott Government. Nothing has been done since.

  30. Player One says:
    Monday, July 25, 2022 at 6:07 pm
    Barney in Cherating @ #2081 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 5:59 pm

    I would suggest he is highlighting what is possible if you don’t have 9 years of inaction.

    I suggest you re-read what he said. He is talking about our current policies and lack of ambition.
    ________________________________________________________
    In that case, both Alok Sharma and you must be pleased about our recent change of government. Far better to have a government committed to a more ambitious emissions reduction target – which the opposition is opposing. Also better to have a government committed to rewiring the nation with renewable energy, than one trying to advance the gas industry and invest in unproven technologies to prolong the use of coal.

  31. “Yeah, I couldn’t pick the winner in three months time. It’s just so close between the first and fourth place, and even fifth and sixth place aren’t too far away,” CommSec chief economist Craig James told AAP.
    _____________________
    So it’s pretty close then.

  32. The CommSec report is disastrous news for Matthew Guy.

    It leaves the Vic Libs election campaign in tatters.

  33. Taylormade says:
    Monday, July 25, 2022 at 6:28 pm
    Vensays:
    Monday, July 25, 2022 at 5:01 pm
    _____________________
    Where’s the corruption indicator ?
    We would be way out in front on that one.
    —————-
    Yes. Vic has a lot of ground to make up since the Lobster/Mobster Guy’s stint as planning minister, including handling windfall profits to Liberal Party supporting developers in Fisherman’s Bend. Hopefully he and his mates never get their paws anywhere near the Vic Treasury again :

    “The former Victorian Coalition government’s signature urban renewal project delivered windfall profits to land holders but was unmatched worldwide for its failure to plan for transport and other key services, a scathing confidential report has found.”

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/report-slams-matthew-guy-on-rezoning-of-fishermans-bend-20151019-gkcyrv.html

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