With the flood of post-election analysis having subsided and opinion polling yet to properly crank up again (expect that to change when parliament resumes next week), there is not a lot to report. Roy Morgan’s weekly video update last week informed us that Labor leads 53.5-46.5 in its latest round of polling, out from 53-47 the last time it offered a full set of results in the middle of last month, but it didn’t deem fit to offer anything further. The international leadership approval tracking poll by Morning Consult suggests Anthony Albanese’s standing has continued to improve, his approval having cracked 60% and disapproval down to 24%, which compares with 57% and 26% when I last reported on it three weeks ago.
I do have another new entry to relate from the burgeoning field of online psephological tools, courtesy of Alex Jago and Ben Messenger, providing a triangular representation of the increasingly common occurrence of three-cornered contests between Labor, the Coalition and the Greens. This can just as easily be adapted to any combination of three parties or candidates you care to choose, as long as you have a reasonable handle on how preferences are likely to flow between them.
The starting point here is each party’s share of the vote at the second last preference count, to be identified henceforth as 3CP, or three-candidate preferred. The tool’s default preference splits are 80-20 against the Coalition when Labor or the Greens are excluded, roughly consistent with all past experience, and 70-30 in favour of Labor when the Coalition is excluded, which is about what happens when Coalition preferences are so directed. On the last relevant occasion I can think of when they went the other way, when Adam Bandt first sought re-election in Melbourne in 2010, they favoured the Greens 80-20. Happily, the tool allows you to set the splits however you desire.
To explain what’s going on here, I’ll stick with the defaults. The Coalition 3CP is on the x-axis, the Greens are on the y-axis, and the balance belongs to Labor. On the left we see the 3CP needed by the Greens to defeat Labor when the Coalition is uncompetitive, starting at 50% where the Coalition has no votes at all. At this end of the triangle, the dividing line between a Greens win and a Labor win is broken into three parts. As the Coalition’s 3CP increases from nothing to 29%, the Greens’ required 3CP falls gently from 50% to 42% while Labor’s falls sharply from 50% to 30%, reflecting Labor’s higher share of Coalition preferences.
Once the Coalition gets to 30%, they reach the point where they might make the final count in a race where both Labor and the Greens are competitive, without being competitive themselves. Such was the case in Brisbane and Macnamara at the May election, which is why the AEC conducted indicative 3CP counts to provide an early indication of who would ultimately win there out of Labor and the Greens. As this presents the Greens with a new winning scenario where Labor runs third, here their minimum winning 3CP quickly falls from from 42% to 34%. But once the Coalition 3CP is significantly over a third, there is no longer enough left over for both the Greens and Labor to be competitive. Here the 3CP needed by either reduces from 34% to 29% as the Coalition 3CP increases from 34% to 44%.
With the Coalition only receiving 20% of preferences, they need fully 45% on 3CP to be in contention themselves. Even here they only make it if the remainder splits about evenly between Labor and the Greens, since the preferences they receive diminish together with the 3CP of whoever out of Labor and the Greens drops out. From that point on, the Coalition’s chances steadily increase to 100% where their 3CP reaches 50%, at which point they win before Labor or the Greens are excluded.
Well, what do you know. Obviously nath didn’t even bother to watch the video of Elon Musk’s first wife talking about him because it’s actually quite flattering about him. Instead, nath just couldn’t wait to make a misogynistic comment about her. Because nath targets women.
BeaglieBoy @ #2098 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 6:36 pm
Actually watch the video. Don’t listen to what nath says.
Barney in Cherating @ #2087 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 6:20 pm
I don’t foresee much future for you as a diplomat.
C@tmomma says:
Monday, July 25, 2022
Instead, nath just couldn’t wait to make a misogynistic comment about her. Because nath targets women.
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I have no idea what you are talking about. Honestly WTF
Sir Henry Parkes @ #2095 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 6:31 pm
I sometimes wonder how many Labor partisans are familiar with Labor policy. Not too many, it seems. The Labor national platform is not just very much pro-gas and pro-coal, it is also pro-CCS.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/nrl/manly-players-threaten-to-boycott-game-over-club-s-gay-pride-jersey-20220725-p5b4fy.html
Haven’t we been here before? Cue the Liberals calling for religious freedom laws!
C@t, I was referring to the almost daily Musk hate that is on here…..I think I have seen the video, but have no time to look at it now…..I just think if people are going to have a “Two Minutes Hate” each day on a billionaire then surely there are more worthy targets…..Murdoch, Trump, Koch Brothers, Bezos, Zuckerberg, Rinhardt etc spring to mind
Confessions @ #2106 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 6:44 pm
What’s Bill Shorten’s position on this …?
frednk
And Crikey gets a mention in despatches. They regularly run foaming at the mouth articles regarding Andrews.
And yet, they are really supportive of the NSW state government.
Rex Douglas @ #2108 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 6:46 pm
I don’t think anyone but you cares about that.
Douglas and Milko @ #2109 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 6:48 pm
They can’t allow a socialist leader to be seen as a success.
I think that Australia will need a record of some years of solid performance on climate action before being awarded a COP. Last year Australia presented a plan to protect coal mining as its contribution to climate action. In past years Australia has often played a spoiler role. Only during an too brief interval from 2007-12 did Australia make a constructive contribution.
Good questions! His answers imply he will have something to disclose.
bryon
‘They don’t get taught civics or finance or critical thinking or office computing but spend time on archaic math and f’n Shakespeare.’
Apart from office computing (IT isn’t my field) and ‘archaic’ math (also not my field) I’ve taught all of these, including Shakespeare.
Civics is taught over a range of year levels – at the moment, I’m teaching Year 10s about civil disobedience (hopefully they won’t put that into practice in class…) and finished up last term running a mock election with them, which included showing them how the HoR and Senate are counted.
Critical thinking is core English in some way at all levels (emphasis in senior years, when their brains are wired for it).
My commerce class is presently doing finance and will start work on a business plan (compulsory assessment task) next week.
My sister teaches all this kind of stuff in Victoria, we regularly exchange lesson plans.
BeaglieBoy @ #2107 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 6:45 pm
I agree. I think that there’s good and bad in all of us but that t’s the trial and torture of being universally famous that puts those things up in the spotlight. I have zero time for the fanatacism or the hate. I just try to have a considered opinion about each thing that he does. Though I’d rather not have to think about the man at all from one day to the next.
Beagle Boy
I think I would be lucky if my first husband gave me half a star 😉
Player One says:
Monday, July 25, 2022 at 6:43 pm
Sir Henry Parkes @ #2095 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 6:31 pm
Also better to have a government committed to rewiring the nation with renewable energy, than one trying to advance the gas industry and invest in unproven technologies to prolong the use of coal.
I sometimes wonder how many Labor partisans are familiar with Labor policy. Not too many, it seems. The Labor national platform is not just very much pro-gas and pro-coal, it is also pro-CCS.
________________________________________________________
But even a shy Tory like you has got to admit, if you were honest, that Labor has a better climate action policy than the Coalition.
I expect you will obfuscate and deflect on the obvious answer to that as you do on the question of which major party you ultimately voted for.
‘The Age’ is still sulking – they got taken to court by Vic Labor and lost.
C@t:
Bill Shorten has marched in Sydney Mardi Gras parades in previous years.
Greg Jennett on Afternoon Briefing today gave an obscurantist comment about Scott Morrison. He said he may not even return to parliament after August.
Seems Morrison has ‘checked out’ of parliament but still wants the paycheck from the taxpayer …?
Labor and the crossbench should look into this.
Confessions @ #2119 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 6:57 pm
Exactly. I marched in one in which he and Tanya Plibersek also marched. I was with the SES team.
What I meant by saying that to Rex Douglas, because Rex Douglas was attempting to make a sly reference to Bill Shorten maybe calling for them not to have to wear the Pride jersey, because he got ‘Birthing Parent’ cancelled, and that he might want to appease the ultra religious Polynesian footballers as well so as to build his fan base for a future challenge, was that no one here except Rex Douglas cares to insinuate such a thing about Bill Shorten. Except him.
SfM just doesn’t want to endure the ignominy of being filmed sitting on the backbench.
We desperately need some opinion polling. Anything!
Griff @ #2124 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 7:04 pm
From tomorrow we have Question Time again. 🙂
From tomorrow we have Question Time again.
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C@t
I think up until 5pm tomorrow will be all taken up with ceremonial and procedural matters.
Obscurantism – the practice of deliberately presenting information in an imprecise, abstruse manner designed to limit further inquiry and understanding. Paul Keating once described John Howard as an obscurantist but Scott Morrison is a perfect fit for the term.
Steve777
The joke’s on me. I assumed it was an art school. Maybe the opposite of the impressionists 😀
In my defence, I was reading very quickly.
Nath
“ Musk’s first wife’s opinion is the exception.
_____________
Jealousy is poison.”
You may be jealous of Musk but I’m not.
BK @ #2126 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 7:08 pm
I’m just going to enjoy seeing Labor on the right side of the Despatch Box. 🙂
obscurantist:
noun
a person who deliberately prevents the facts or full details of something from becoming known.
“political obscurantists”
adjective
deliberately preventing the facts or full details of something from becoming known.
“an obscurantist agenda”
🙂
Meanwhile in Fortitude Valley, Queensland….
https://youtu.be/TxWKjv_mc2Q
Player Onesays:
Monday, July 25, 2022 at 6:40 pm
You really should take an English comprehension course.
C@tmomma says:
Monday, July 25, 2022 at 6:38 pm
Instead, nath just couldn’t wait to make a misogynistic comment about her. Because nath targets women.
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You have driven a lot of people away but I won’t go voluntarily. You have accused every person you argue with of being a misogynist, even the owner of this blog.
Griff says:
Monday, July 25, 2022 at 7:04 pm
We desperately need some opinion polling. Anything!
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Colour of Albo’s neck tie parliament tomorrow?
Settle down nath
Having been to the odd Opening of Parliament or two myself, I can say tomorrow will be all pomp and circumstance.
With a dollop of FU Liberals and Gnats..
Some half wit wrote.”and f’n Shakespeare” Are you kidding me?
Colour of Albo’s neck tie parliament tomorrow?
A deep, Socialist crimson…
What we want from the Liberals is more of Shadow Treasuer Angus Taylor.
Peels off the rusted ons with every utterance. He should have a permanent gig on every channel. On rotation.
Hearing the October Budget is the first down payment on de-scomofication of the polity.
The May 2023 Budget will be bayoneting the wounded. Nothing left of 9 years of waste and mismanagement. Dutton and Co can argue for its restoration, good luck.
They’ll be no fireworks tomorrow:
– SMH
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Late Riser:
Monday, July 25, 2022 at 3:36 pm
[‘Mavis: Indeed. You might enjoy the comic artist’s opening drawing. It’s a rather lengthy discourse on the meaning of life.
https://existentialcomics.com/comic/1'%5D
Thanks for that link. I’m still trying to get my head around it. I
I think I understand Sartre, Camus, & other leading existentialists? Wittgenstein & Foucault – a big no though!
I think that Scott Morrison will stay in Parliament only so long as he believes both of the following:
(1) That the Coalition has a realistic chance of winning the next election.
(2) That he has a real chance of toppling Peter Dutton without upsetting (1).
Also hearing that Adam Bandt is grasping at the few scraps being offered, claiming victory. Fool that he is.
Labor has no intention of burning the consensus that has provided the majority. Won’t be burning the regions. Won’t be burning the taxpaying exports. In fact, consolidating the outer suburbs, and turning the QLD regional centres marginal whilst maintaining the inner suburban ring is seen in every word Albo is uttering.
The adults in charge, and we have your back.
C@t
I missed it. Would you mind posting that video link again?
sprocket_ says:
The adults in charge
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That is said by the spruikers of every new Government or leader. I’ve heard it said about Abbott, about George W Bush, Obama, Turnbull, Rudd etc etc.
spr
October budget? Go hard, go early. The snouter squeals will be musuc to my ears.
sprocket
I wonder how long it will take to deep cleanse the rot caused by Howard?
clem attlee:
Monday, July 25, 2022 at 7:38 pm
I must admit I had trouble with Shakespeare as a teen. That changed, however, with maturation.
Steve777 says:
Monday, July 25, 2022 at 7:48 pm
I think that Scott Morrison will stay in Parliament only so long as he believes both of the following:
(1) That the Coalition has a realistic chance of winning the next election.
(2) That he has a real chance of toppling Peter Dutton without upsetting (1).
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As a punter and form analyst I have done a market for (1) above – 33/1