With the flood of post-election analysis having subsided and opinion polling yet to properly crank up again (expect that to change when parliament resumes next week), there is not a lot to report. Roy Morgan’s weekly video update last week informed us that Labor leads 53.5-46.5 in its latest round of polling, out from 53-47 the last time it offered a full set of results in the middle of last month, but it didn’t deem fit to offer anything further. The international leadership approval tracking poll by Morning Consult suggests Anthony Albanese’s standing has continued to improve, his approval having cracked 60% and disapproval down to 24%, which compares with 57% and 26% when I last reported on it three weeks ago.
I do have another new entry to relate from the burgeoning field of online psephological tools, courtesy of Alex Jago and Ben Messenger, providing a triangular representation of the increasingly common occurrence of three-cornered contests between Labor, the Coalition and the Greens. This can just as easily be adapted to any combination of three parties or candidates you care to choose, as long as you have a reasonable handle on how preferences are likely to flow between them.
The starting point here is each party’s share of the vote at the second last preference count, to be identified henceforth as 3CP, or three-candidate preferred. The tool’s default preference splits are 80-20 against the Coalition when Labor or the Greens are excluded, roughly consistent with all past experience, and 70-30 in favour of Labor when the Coalition is excluded, which is about what happens when Coalition preferences are so directed. On the last relevant occasion I can think of when they went the other way, when Adam Bandt first sought re-election in Melbourne in 2010, they favoured the Greens 80-20. Happily, the tool allows you to set the splits however you desire.
To explain what’s going on here, I’ll stick with the defaults. The Coalition 3CP is on the x-axis, the Greens are on the y-axis, and the balance belongs to Labor. On the left we see the 3CP needed by the Greens to defeat Labor when the Coalition is uncompetitive, starting at 50% where the Coalition has no votes at all. At this end of the triangle, the dividing line between a Greens win and a Labor win is broken into three parts. As the Coalition’s 3CP increases from nothing to 29%, the Greens’ required 3CP falls gently from 50% to 42% while Labor’s falls sharply from 50% to 30%, reflecting Labor’s higher share of Coalition preferences.
Once the Coalition gets to 30%, they reach the point where they might make the final count in a race where both Labor and the Greens are competitive, without being competitive themselves. Such was the case in Brisbane and Macnamara at the May election, which is why the AEC conducted indicative 3CP counts to provide an early indication of who would ultimately win there out of Labor and the Greens. As this presents the Greens with a new winning scenario where Labor runs third, here their minimum winning 3CP quickly falls from from 42% to 34%. But once the Coalition 3CP is significantly over a third, there is no longer enough left over for both the Greens and Labor to be competitive. Here the 3CP needed by either reduces from 34% to 29% as the Coalition 3CP increases from 34% to 44%.
With the Coalition only receiving 20% of preferences, they need fully 45% on 3CP to be in contention themselves. Even here they only make it if the remainder splits about evenly between Labor and the Greens, since the preferences they receive diminish together with the 3CP of whoever out of Labor and the Greens drops out. From that point on, the Coalition’s chances steadily increase to 100% where their 3CP reaches 50%, at which point they win before Labor or the Greens are excluded.
Scott will do what Jesus tells him to do. But first he has to dodge Satan.
china is the right place for COP 27.
[‘NSW Liberal sources, who spoke about internal speculation around the seat of Cook on the condition of anonymity, said Morrison was widely expected to leave politics before the next election but had given no indication of his intention to do so.
“He has been talking to local members telling them he is in no rush to leave,” one NSW Liberal insider said. “Our estimates are that he will be around for another 12 months.”] – SMH
By going to Tokyo, Morrison will miss Howard’s 83rd birthday
celebrations tomorrow but I’m sure he’ll be there in spirit.
S0 Bob Brown the wrecker is disappointed in his parliamentary achievements.
nath @ #2134 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 7:33 pm
Yep, I’m that powerful. 😆
Nevertheless, why DID you say that ‘jealousy was a poison’ about Elon Musk’s first wife, when you so obviously hadn’t even bothered to watch the video? She was quite complimentary about him actually.
And would you mind addressing the issue for once, instead of saying some new nasty thing about me?
Sir Henry Parkes @ #2117 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 6:56 pm
Why does this fascinate you people so much? I would much prefer to discuss policy. It is clear that many here would not.
This is a very informative video:
https://youtu.be/Sc9dVaQhIS8
SMH has an article quoting ‘anonymous NSW Liberal insiders’ who seem convinced that Morrison will leave Parliament some time this term and that there are informal moves to find a replacement.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-to-miss-first-week-of-new-parliament-20220725-p5b4dc.html
It seems fairly obvious that Morrison is trying to find somewhere to go that can use his “talents” and pays well. In the meantime he is happy to bludge off the taxpayer with his parliamentary salary and allowances.
C@tmomma says:
Monday, July 25, 2022 at 8:04 pm
Nevertheless, why DID you say that ‘jealousy was a poison’ about Elon Musk’s first wife, when you so obviously hadn’t even bothered to watch the video? She was quite complimentary about him actually.
And would you mind addressing the issue for once, instead of saying some new nasty thing about me?
____________
Quite clearly I wasn’t saying that ‘jealousy is a poison’ about Elon Musk’s first wife, it was in reference to Themunz and others here who are unhinged in their anti-Musk attitudes.
Oh, and nath, are you honestly denying that you target zoomster and I with personal abuse? I guess it’s not strictly, by definition, misogyny, but funny how we’re both female.
And last time I looked we had plenty of new commenters on the blog, not one of whom I believe I have tried to scare off or whatever. Bad faith actors such as yourself, sure I’ll continue to point that out. Mr Bowe will make the decisions about that. Always has. Always will. As well as each particular individual. All of which decisions I absolutely respect.
nath @ #2088 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 6:22 pm
Well, I swear it looked like you were targeting her. Obscurantism must be the order of the day. 😐
C@tmomma says:
Monday, July 25, 2022 at 8:11 pm
Oh, and nath, are you honestly denying that you target zoomster and I with personal abuse? I guess it’s not strictly, by definition, misogyny, but funny how we’re both female.
____
I think I have received more personal abuse than I have given, that’s for sure.
“Adults in charge” – I don’t recall that expression being used in the context of Australian politics until Tony Abbott applied it (inaccurately) to the Government that he led. Turned out it was more like lunatics taking over the asylum.
The re-wiring of the electricity distribution network will be financed by Capital, decisions to invest made at Board tables – decisions made recognising the encouragement of government
The energy distribution assets in Australia are in the ownership of Capital, including multi National Companies
On behalf of their Shareholders (the ultimate owners) Capital is charged with protecting and growing the business model
So they will be driving change and particularly given the change of focus by the Federal Government
There are Companies already very active having moved from a reserve position to an active position
Government sets the agenda
And that is what this government is doing – changing the agenda
Language speaks
There appear some who have no conception of government and the interaction of government with commerce and industry, an interaction which is the cornerstone of society and of economic activity
The previous government attempted to influence Capital to extend the operational lifespans of fossil fuel energy assets – and were not successful then signalling direct investment
Steve777 at 8:19 pm
When you hear the ‘adults in charge’ crap, it is advisable to “head for the hills”. The ‘adults back in charge’ phrase was also rolled out when Dubya was first elected.
poroti says:
When you hear the ‘adults in charge’ crap, it is advisable to “head for the hills”
_______
I wonder if it could be classed as a euphemism for ‘we are better than the last lot. So far. Perhaps. Nothing has been proven…yet. Fingers crossed.’
Here we go again,
I agree with your thesis and I would add that capital, as opposed to the Public Service, and maybe 50/50 with politics, attracts iconoclasts who want to make a difference and they see that in our society the way you can make a real difference, is to make a lot of money.
I view Mike Cannon-Brookes in this way. He advanced his company to global status, which gave him the funds to move the Overton Window on Energy infrastructure and supply to market.
I doubt he could have achieved as much as he has any other way.
Here we go again:
Monday, July 25, 2022 at 8:21 pm
[‘There appear some who have no conception of government and the interaction of government with commerce and industry, an interaction which is the cornerstone of society and of economic activity
The previous government attempted to influence Capital to extend the operational lifespans of fossil fuel energy assets – and were not successful then signalling direct investment’]
I think I understand it now.
nath at 8:30 pm
I’ve heard it called twice ( Dubya and Tones) . I’ll take that as ‘there’s a pattern forming’ or do we hope for 3rd time lucky ? 🙂
It feels like this sometimes 😀
And speaking of tired, reiterated tropes, this time by the Opposition, we have ‘Labor’s razor gang’:
Grants plan frozen by Labor
Companies awarded grants under the Coalition’s $1.3bn modern manufacturing initiative have had their funding frozen by the Albanese government.
The funding is on hold until Labor completes its “value for money” review of manufacturing grants handed to firms across the defence, space, medical, food and heavy manufacturing sectors (The Australian $).
“The minister is evaluating the assessment and decision-making processes surrounding manufacturing grants to ensure that they will deliver value for money for Australian taxpayers,” a spokesman for Industry Minister Ed Husic said.
Opposition industry and skills spokeswoman Sussan Ley said “alarm bells are ringing across Australia’s manufacturing and skills sectors as Labor’s razor gang looks to gut their funding”.
Labor last year criticised the fund for granting former prime minister Scott Morrison the power to personally authorise grant allocations, being “structured in such a way as to streamline pork-barrelling” (The Guardian).
Sigh.
The Liberals need new blood badly.
Manly players have a problem wearing rainbow jerseys? Where were they when the club decided to clash the gorgeous maroon and white with the awful red and blue of their sponsor Pepsi?
Re Hwga @8:21.
”The previous government attempted to influence Capital to extend the operational lifespans of fossil fuel energy assets – and were not successful then [they started] signalling direct investment”
That is a very interesting take. It rings very true and explains much about what made the late and unlamented Federal Government tick. They tried to get market forces on board to protect fossil fuel profits. When that got a bit wobbly it was ideologies overboard. Mates had to be looked after.
Wow, The Project tonight has gone mask-off with an anti-union piece around Labor’s planned abolition of the ABCC where Whaleed came off as petty against a union official, as well as another about foot-and-mouth disease where they basically let David Littleproud spout off uninterrupted for the whole segment without challenging anything he said.
BREAKING: UK will host Eurovision on behalf of Ukraine in 2023
Mick,
Waleed Ali’s family is big in the construction industry apparently. He has form with regard to railing against worker rights in that industry previously. Not surprising.
Sarah tonight devoted about half an interview in a fruitless attempt to get an English pollie to criticise Labor’s 43% & coal approvals. The second question is will she be as tough on coalition figures as she has been on Labor? The first question of course is will any coalition figures turn up?
Time for The WarC@t to denounce PJK again:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/unprecedented-foolish-dangerous-keating-attacks-pelosi-s-planned-trip-to-taiwan-20220725-p5b4g4.html
(Shush though – don’t tell her that even Biden (and his pentagon advisors) seems to agree with Keating … )
Here is the full footage of Pork Barilaro’s exit from a Manly bar after 4 hours on the sauce…
https://twitter.com/sarkysage/status/1551531510859120640?s=21&t=_ayYAVcFkJgtFhmnIbW_5A
“ Sarah tonight devoted about half an interview in a fruitless attempt to get an English pollie to criticise Labor’s 43% & coal approvals. ”
Sarah’s badgering assumes that global coal burning is supply driven. It isn’t.
Whether it is morally right, or morally wrong (or neutral in the morality stakes), limiting future coal production in australia won’t actually stop any coal fired power plant from generating a single kilowatt of coal fired energy: The stuff will simply be sourced elsewhere.
(Sorry everyone, I’ve probably just provoked another 10 pages of P1 idiocy, with Rexy slut shamming Labor at every turn. My bad).
Andrew_Earlwood at 9:45 pm
It looks like the international Communist conspiracy to sap and impurify all of our precious bodily fluids. has succeed with the US of A’s military.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/biden-says-military-not-support-nancy-pelosi-visit-taiwan-rcna39259
“ Here is the full footage of Pork Barilaro’s exit from a Manly bar after 4 hours on the sauce…
https://twitter.com/sarkysage/status/1551531510859120640?s=21&t=_ayYAVcFkJgtFhmnIbW_5A”
Some questions for citizen Bruz:
1. Is that ‘former media officer’ actually your current lover?
2. Did you debit trap the Queanbeyan Italian Club?
3. Did you lie when given evidence under oath the last time you appeared before a NSW Upper House Committee?
4. Does the answer to question 1, call into issue the evidence you gave before ICAC last year?
Andrew_Earlwood @ #2180 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 9:51 pm
It’s OK, AE. We all know by now that you are just another Labor partisan with a bad case of cognitive dissonance.
“ It’s OK, AE. We all know by now that you are just another Labor partisan with a bad case of cognitive dissonance.”
The ChiComms stopped buying our thermal coal Sevareid years ago. Exactly how many coal fired power plants did they shutter in the period before they announced recently that they may start buying off us again? I’m sorry, but my bad case of cognitive dissonance is affecting me badly.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #2184 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 10:03 pm
Sure is.
Ven at 5.13 pm & Porky’s lament
It would be more accurate to say that Mr Giovanni Barilaro did nothing right while in office, apart from telling people in the country to wear masks during the Delta outbreak a year ago, and any related messages he was instructed to read out.
Reportedly, and not just on the say-so of Mr J. Shanks, Mr Barilaro owns a mansion in the boondocks somewhere off the road from Nowra to Braidwood, a bit closer to the latter town.
That road is a contender for the worst arterial road in NSW, at least for a mostly sealed road, because the unsealed part is less dangerous than the sealed part.
Not all of the ruination of that road will have occurred after Mr Barilaro resigned in October. With an eye on the Big Apple, he ignored basic public services.
Occasionally, local councillors in some districts get criticised for bringing the bitumen all the way to their country manor, at the expense of urgent repairs to roads elsewhere. Mr Barilaro seems forgetful of a range of matters, including bitumen.
Russian forces west of the Dnipro River (Kherson city and areas north) now find themselves cut off from supply after the bridges across the Dnipro River (and the Inhulets River) started developing holes. Its so bad that the Russian trolls are in full denial.
What’s even funnier is that Russia is now attempting to build a pontoon bridge – across a kilometre wide, fast flowing river under Ukrainian fire control.
Bring it on! (Yes, I’ve had my share of popcorn tonight).
”
C@tmommasays:
Monday, July 25, 2022 at 6:52 pm
Rex Douglas @ #2108 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 6:46 pm
Confessions @ #2106 Monday, July 25th, 2022 – 6:44 pm
Manly officials will hold an emergency meeting on Monday night with up to seven of their players following threats of a boycott over the club’s gay pride jersey.
The Sea Eagles on Monday proudly unveiled their rainbow themed jersey to celebrate diversity and inclusivity, with Kieran Foran, Reuben Garrick and Sean Keppie modelling the jumper.
It has had the opposite effect on more than half a dozen players, who don’t agree with the messaging and are considering pulling out of this Thursday night’s home game against the Roosters.
The players, most of whom are from Polynesian backgrounds, do not want to wear the jersey on cultural and religious grounds.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/nrl/manly-players-threaten-to-boycott-game-over-club-s-gay-pride-jersey-20220725-p5b4fy.html
Haven’t we been here before? Cue the Liberals calling for religious freedom laws!
What’s Bill Shorten’s position on this …?
I don’t think anyone but you cares about that.
”
Rex
Why should Bill Shorten have a position on this.
BTW Rex
You love Victorian Greens so much, what is your position on Victorian Greens Transgender phobia?
Re AE @9:51 ”Sorry everyone, I’ve probably just provoked another 10 pages of…”).
For what it’s worth, I agree with you. We (Australia) can sort our own greenhouse emissions, we can’t force everyone else.
”
Cud Chewersays:
Monday, July 25, 2022 at 7:55 pm
sprocket
Hearing the October Budget is the first down payment on de-scomofication of the polity.
I wonder how long it will take to deep cleanse the rot caused by Howard?
”
Not in our life time.
Cud,
Did you see the video I posted earlier of the press conference of Secretary of Defense Austin and General Mark Milley? Really worth watching.
”
frednksays:
Monday, July 25, 2022 at 8:03 pm
S0 Bob Brown the wrecker is disappointed in his parliamentary achievements.
”
He gave us Adam Bandt and Lidia Thorpe, no small achievement.
”
C@tmommasays:
Monday, July 25, 2022 at 8:49 pm
And speaking of tired, reiterated tropes, this time by the Opposition, we have ‘Labor’s razor gang’:
Grants plan frozen by Labor
Companies awarded grants under the Coalition’s $1.3bn modern manufacturing initiative have had their funding frozen by the Albanese government.
The funding is on hold until Labor completes its “value for money” review of manufacturing grants handed to firms across the defence, space, medical, food and heavy manufacturing sectors (The Australian $).
“The minister is evaluating the assessment and decision-making processes surrounding manufacturing grants to ensure that they will deliver value for money for Australian taxpayers,” a spokesman for Industry Minister Ed Husic said.
Opposition industry and skills spokeswoman Sussan Ley said “alarm bells are ringing across Australia’s manufacturing and skills sectors as Labor’s razor gang looks to gut their funding”.
Labor last year criticised the fund for granting former prime minister Scott Morrison the power to personally authorise grant allocations, being “structured in such a way as to streamline pork-barrelling” (The Guardian).
Sigh.
The Liberals need new blood badly.
”
I noticed that Susan Ley face becomes contorted whenever she criticises ALP.
C@t
No I missed that. And there was also the video from Musk’s ex.
here you go 🙂
https://youtu.be/Sc9dVaQhIS8
Sprocket
“ The May 2023 Budget will be bayoneting the wounded. Nothing left of 9 years of waste and mismanagement. Dutton and Co can argue for its restoration, good luck.”
Great news. Thinking about this further, there are no downsides for Labor:
– most of the Morrison funded projects stank and everyone knows it
– the economy is at close to full employment anyway
– Labor can be seen to reduce the Morrison debt tsunami
– the money is much better spent on health and education
– if the forecast debt can be trimmed, it might help retain our AAA credit rating
Night all.
https://youtu.be/9lkQPpSOtz8
Night, Soc. Night all!
https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1551475355273265152
How did Hungary manage to be in the EU in the first place?
Shellbell
This post may real interest you. I will repost it tomorrow.
Will Pucovski remains part of Australia’s long-term plans, and has been named in an eight-man group of emerging batters and spin bowlers to head to the MRF Pace Foundation in Chennai for a ten-day training camp in August.
https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/australia-news-pucovski-to-head-to-india-for-10-day-training-camp-1326104