Polls: Morning Consult, Essential Research, Lowy Institute (open thread)

Anthony Albanese’s approval remains in the ascendant, plus further polling on the minimum wage, the gas crisis and foreign affairs.

American pollster Morning Consult’s current read on various international leaders’ domestic approval credits Anthony Albanese with an approval rating of 57%, up six on his debut showing last month, with disapproval up one to 26% and the balance accounted for by a drop in the uncommitted. It seems this poll is conducted on a daily basis and its published numbers are seven-day rolling averages – I’m not sure how often updates are published, but this one came out a week ago, from polling conducted between June 15 to 21.

In the absence of anything to tell us on voting intention or leadership approval, the most interesting finding of the fortnightly Essential Research survey for mine is that 67% support the Fair Work Commission’s decision to increase the minimum wage by 5.2%, with only 15% opposed. It appears Essential Research now has a regular question on whether Australia is headed in the right or wrong direction, the latest figures of 47% and 29% differing little from the result a fortnight ago, which registered a post-election surge of optimism.

The survey also features questions on the gas crisis and emissions targets, which to my mind are flawed by a lack of response options capturing anti-renewables climate skeptic sentiment. Forty-five per cent blamed the gas crisis on “years of neglect and of successive governments” when given a choice between that and “factors that couldn’t have been predicted, like the war in the Ukraine and the pandemic” and the “fossil fuel lobby and the LNP” having “deliberately fought against the transition to renewables”, which scored 35% and 20% respectively. Forty-nine per cent felt the government should implement the emissions reductions target it took to the election and 30% felt it should go further, with “unsure” the only option for those of neither opinion.

There were two questions on foreign policy, one of which found overwhelming majorities felt it important to have close relationships with the United States, Pacific nations and European Union nations, with a more modest 58% feeling the same way about China and 33% doing so about Russia. Sixty-two per cent believed “Australia should take a more assertive role in protecting our national interest”, compared with 38% who favoured the alternative option of “Australia should look for opportunities to increase global cooperation”. The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1087.

For a lot more on the foreign policy front, the Lowy Institute has published its annual in-depth poll on the subject, which I haven’t had time to look at properly yet. It would seem declining confidence in Joe Biden is not a purely domestic affair, with 58% having confidence in him to do the right thing in world affairs, down from 69% last year. This places him effectively level with Boris Johnson on 59% and behind Jacinda Ardern on 87%, Emmanuel Macron on 67% and Japan’s Fumio Kishidia (who I’m guessing respondents weren’t required to recognise by name) on 65%. Vlaidimir Putin was down ten points to 6%, placing him on par with Kim Jong-un on 5%. The survey was conducted March 15 to 28 from a sample of 2006.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,271 comments on “Polls: Morning Consult, Essential Research, Lowy Institute (open thread)”

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  1. ”
    Cud Chewersays:
    Sunday, July 3, 2022 at 7:17 pm
    Ven

    One thing I’ve noticed, especially on Nine, is how often the potato head has gotten a soundbite. Considering how infrequently Albo was given any recognition this time last electoral cycle.
    ”

    Hi Cud(waving)
    What a surprise that “how infrequently Albo was given any recognition this time last electoral cycle”. (sarcasm)
    When you have Political commentator with name of Chris Ulhmann, can you expect anything better?

  2. davo says: “What’s the CCP’s 2030 target? Anywhere near as low as 43%?”

    China hasn’t spent the last two centuries wrecking our climate, we have. Per-capita Australia is one of the true climate-wreckers. We are in no position to lecture them on climate change.

  3. Griff

    Yep. As I said months ago. The unstated policy was to make sure everyone gets infected. Its also quite amazing how the media got directed to ignore the death toll in nursing homes.

  5. China hasn’t spent the last two centuries wrecking our climate, we have. Per-capita Australia is one of the true climate-wreckers. We are in no position to lecture them on climate change.
    ——————————————————-
    China has a ridiculous population of 1.4 bill.
    What’s their raison d’être for this?

  10. Sydney flood situation.

    https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/03/sydney-flooding-communities-evacuated-and-residents-rescued-as-torrential-rain-batters-region?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16568392031512&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Faustralia-news%2F2022%2Fjul%2F03%2Fsydney-flooding-communities-evacuated-and-residents-rescued-as-torrential-rain-batters-region

  14. nath says:
    Sunday, July 3, 2022 at 8:07 pm
    Europe has a pretty ridiculous population of over 700 million but no one ever asks why.
    ————
    I suspect thousands have asked why.

    What is your evidence that “no one ever asks why”?

    I believe humans are the most dangerous pest species ever and the most venal.

  15. If China don’t get to a 43% target quick sharpish, we’re all toast no matter what grandstanding targets we come up with. No amount of flag shunting like shenanigans by the flagman or anyone will save us.

  17. Cud Chewer @ Sunday, July 3, 2022 at 8:28 pm

    Yep! Public health response still stuck in herd immunity mode. I wonder at the excess mobility and mortality needed before the powers that be start thinking “what gives?”

    The same thinking on display as the aerosol debate.

  18. Walked across the road to the sea today (Brighton SA) and saw 2 Southern Right Whales gambling in the sun……first time in 10 years here apparently.
    ——————————-
    I actually also walked across the road today in Brighton 3186 but did not spot anything southern right nor Tim Wilson.

  19. Dr John says:
    Sunday, July 3, 2022 at 8:26 pm

    Europe has dozens of active sovereign states and in total is larger in size than the chook/duck pen China
    ___________________
    Europe is a bit bigger than China. But generally, it helps to understand both China and India in comparison with Europe. While Europe split into multiple states, China and India have remained relatively intact. If the Roman Empire had remained intact, then we would understand this a lot better, instead of talking about nations as ‘chook pens’.

  20. davo @ #1215 Sunday, July 3rd, 2022 – 8:34 pm

    If China don’t get to a 43% target quick sharpish, we’re all toast no matter what grandstanding targets we come up with. No amount of flag shunting like shenanigans by the flagman or anyone will save us.

    China is expected to achieve and even exceed its ambitious climate goals, whereas Australia is expected to fall short of even its paltry unambitious goals.

    Which one of us deserves more criticism, do you think?

  25. China is expected to achieve and even exceed its ambitious climate goals And so is Australia
    starting at a minimum of 43% by 2030 backed by Pocock, JLN and the Teals, wedging the flagman.

  26. nath
    Dr John says:
    Sunday, July 3, 2022 at 8:26 pm

    Europe has dozens of active sovereign states and in total is larger in size than the chook/duck pen China
    ___________________
    Europe is a bit bigger than China. But generally, it helps to understand both China and India in comparison with Europe. While Europe split into multiple states, China and India have remained relatively intact. If the Roman Empire had remained intact, then we would understand this a lot better, instead of talking about nations as ‘chook pens’.
    ——————————-
    I was referring to overbreeding rather than the history.

  35. The US Supreme Court has turned feral & it’s going to get much worse, making decisions untowardly affecting millions of Americans but almost unaccountable, relying on the sophistry of legal literalism, coupled with less than cloaked biblical underpinnings, six of the 9 justices, devout Catholics. Little wonder the current pope was jubilant about the Roe decision.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jul/03/voting-rights-us-supreme-court

    Public confidence in the SCOTUS following the overturning of
    Roe has sunk to 25%. The judiciary’s upper echelon cannot survive in the absence of the support of the people, and it’s futile to suggest that anything can be achieved via the ballot box.

    https://www.voanews.com/a/latest-gallup-poll-public-confidence-in-supreme-court-at-historic-low/6631966.html

    Biden says he supports a “carveout” of the filibuster, so that
    the original decision in Roe can be codified, but I’m not sure that
    will survive an appeal, the current bench almost manic in its to
    desire to hand powers back to the Bible-bashing states to ban abortion or to limit it, under the guise of textualism in statutory construction and originalism in interpreting the Constitution, seemingly oblivious to the common law “Golden Rule” of statutory interpretation and other instruments where if absurdity, ambiguity or inconsistency would result if determined literally, the courts are at liberty rectify same.

  36. Player Onesays:
    Sunday, July 3, 2022 at 9:05 pm
    Dr John @ #1226 Sunday, July 3rd, 2022 – 8:57 pm

    I was referring to overbreeding rather than the history.

    If by “overbreeding” you mean population growth that cannot be sustained, then I’m afraid Australia and China both rank lower than most of Europe.
    ——————————————-
    My response was to nath not you – you’ll come shortly

  37. davo,
    It’s expected, hopefully he’ll drop them off a stack more bushmaster and AS4 m113’s. Better used there than floating about 1st brigade.

  40. C@t

    We have a lot of modern artillery, including M777s we could send quickly to Ukraine. We also have a lot more Bushmasters. And we have a lot of ordinary gear – including decent body armor.

  41. Excellent. Hopefully this will mean Albo will announce more heavy weapons for Ukraine.

    wonderful – the russians just bought an intact french caesar for US$125,000. the ukrainian “buffalo soldiers” selling it wanted a cool million but the russians talked them down.

  43. Pisays:
    Sunday, July 3, 2022 at 8:27 pm
    Your responses are like a bot caught in bad weather Dr John.
    ————————————————
    Finally an attempt at satire?
    I vaguely recall Pi is an inorganic compound that cannot be stored at room temperature.

  46. Cud Chewer,
    Hopefully the army will make a smart choice under Marles and not buy IFV’s for the infantry and instead just go whole hog on the full fleed of Boxers, get the Cav version the IFV versions etc.

    The next 10 years are going to be really good for Rheinmetall

  49. Mavis

    Not happening with Manchin. Its going to take something close to a civil war between the civilised and educated and the not so.

    Best we can hope for is the Democrat voters actually turn out at the mid-terms.

    Or Drumpf in chains. Or both.

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