American pollster Morning Consult’s current read on various international leaders’ domestic approval credits Anthony Albanese with an approval rating of 57%, up six on his debut showing last month, with disapproval up one to 26% and the balance accounted for by a drop in the uncommitted. It seems this poll is conducted on a daily basis and its published numbers are seven-day rolling averages – I’m not sure how often updates are published, but this one came out a week ago, from polling conducted between June 15 to 21.
In the absence of anything to tell us on voting intention or leadership approval, the most interesting finding of the fortnightly Essential Research survey for mine is that 67% support the Fair Work Commission’s decision to increase the minimum wage by 5.2%, with only 15% opposed. It appears Essential Research now has a regular question on whether Australia is headed in the right or wrong direction, the latest figures of 47% and 29% differing little from the result a fortnight ago, which registered a post-election surge of optimism.
The survey also features questions on the gas crisis and emissions targets, which to my mind are flawed by a lack of response options capturing anti-renewables climate skeptic sentiment. Forty-five per cent blamed the gas crisis on “years of neglect and of successive governments” when given a choice between that and “factors that couldn’t have been predicted, like the war in the Ukraine and the pandemic” and the “fossil fuel lobby and the LNP” having “deliberately fought against the transition to renewables”, which scored 35% and 20% respectively. Forty-nine per cent felt the government should implement the emissions reductions target it took to the election and 30% felt it should go further, with “unsure” the only option for those of neither opinion.
There were two questions on foreign policy, one of which found overwhelming majorities felt it important to have close relationships with the United States, Pacific nations and European Union nations, with a more modest 58% feeling the same way about China and 33% doing so about Russia. Sixty-two per cent believed “Australia should take a more assertive role in protecting our national interest”, compared with 38% who favoured the alternative option of “Australia should look for opportunities to increase global cooperation”. The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1087.
For a lot more on the foreign policy front, the Lowy Institute has published its annual in-depth poll on the subject, which I haven’t had time to look at properly yet. It would seem declining confidence in Joe Biden is not a purely domestic affair, with 58% having confidence in him to do the right thing in world affairs, down from 69% last year. This places him effectively level with Boris Johnson on 59% and behind Jacinda Ardern on 87%, Emmanuel Macron on 67% and Japan’s Fumio Kishidia (who I’m guessing respondents weren’t required to recognise by name) on 65%. Vlaidimir Putin was down ten points to 6%, placing him on par with Kim Jong-un on 5%. The survey was conducted March 15 to 28 from a sample of 2006.
How could you not approve of a leader that is actually governing competently? (Despite political arsonists trying to set fires around him)
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk
1m
Further moderate falls in bond yields this morning.
10 years hit a peak of 4.20% on 15 June:
Now 3.68%.
Linked to signs of inflation pressures easing.
This rally is also being reflected in a similar scaling back in pricing of interest rate hikes from the RBA
I wonder if Earlwood will continue to be an apologist for China still, after this today:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/nato-formally-declares-china-a-threat-boosts-troops-fearing-russian-expansion-20220630-p5axum.html
Just caught up with this article from yesterday
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/29/labor-led-senate-inquiry-to-call-for-axing-of-liberal-dominated-aat
You’d think by now I shouldn’t be surprised at the level of partisan behaviour by the right in appointments made to further their donors interests to the detriment of the public with no remorse for the damage caused.
The more we hear about the corruption and incompetence here in Oz over the last 9 years it should be clear to the electorate that right wing ideology is poisonous to democracy. How they get any votes at all is staggering.
The US is even worse – it is famous for clearing the decks upon election – even more than here. Important appointments should be made on merit not on the political persuasion of an appointee. They even vote for judges – insane.
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, June 30, 2022 at 6:08 am
“How could you not approve of a leader that is actually governing competently? (Despite political arsonists trying to set fires around him)”
In such a polarised world, purposeful, active, intelligent and successful governing appears irrelevant to opponents whose only goal is to destroy. Not for a moment do they give thought to the national betterment.
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, June 30, 2022 at 6:08 am
How could you not approve of a leader that is actually governing competently? (Despite political arsonists trying to set fires around him)
———————————————————-
Yes it is a big difference from the previous lib/nats whether it was under Abbott , Turnbull or Morrison there were daily gaffes and incompetence .
Cronus,
Yes, the rise of hyper partisanship and refusal to undertake bipartisan action for the collective good of the country, has been a poison injected into democracy that I can trace back to the Dismissal of Gough Whitlam in Australia and enthusiastically exacerbated by John Howard, Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan.
Hopefully Prime Minister Albanese can wean us off the Dopamine drug that the Hyper Right has gotten us hopped up on.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Katina Curtis tells us that the government is considering whether it can scrap a review body stacked with Liberal-linked members as integrity experts call for transparency and competitiveness around senior public appointments.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/attorney-general-mulls-option-to-abolish-aat-and-start-from-scratch-20220629-p5axjn.html
Dana Daniel reports that the Albanese government is refusing to cover aged care providers’ rising costs, including a wage increase awarded this Friday, surprising providers who expected funding to rise under Labor. Honestly, this will put many providers over the top. Wages represent 80% of all costs in running a facility, so how will they be forced to act do you think?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/an-effective-cut-albanese-government-refuses-to-cover-rising-aged-care-costs-20220629-p5axrc.html
Angus Thompson writes that a former head of the industrial umpire and current Reserve Bank board member agrees with the head of the union movement that the historic hike in the minimum wage will not automatically lead to pay increases above 5 percent across the workforce.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/howard-s-industrial-umpire-agrees-with-union-chief-that-wage-spirals-are-in-the-past-20220627-p5awyi.html
According to Katherine Murphy and Adam Morton, Chris Bowen, is poised to unveil a sweeping review into Australia’s carbon credit system after an expert whistleblower characterised it as a fraud and a waste of taxpayer money.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/29/chris-bowen-to-announce-review-of-carbon-credits-system-after-expert-labelled-it-a
Chris Bowen has signalled a more open-minded approach to negotiating the government’s climate change policy, talking to independent MPs and suggesting the emissions-reduction target could go higher, writes James Robertson.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2022/06/29/bowen-crossbenchers-emissions-policy/
When it comes to partner visas, Abul Rizvi says that, under Dutton, the Department of Home Affairs just ignored the law.
https://johnmenadue.com/partner-visas-has-dutton-escaped-another-scandal/
While most eyes rest on the remains of Scott Morrison’s failed attempt at a khaki election through last September’s announcement of a backward-looking AUKUS alliance, prime minister Anthony Albanese’s trip to Madrid for the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation summit points to a much more significant shift in Australia’s alliance with the United States – ‘a global alliance of democracies’, aka Global NATO, argues Richard Tanter.
https://johnmenadue.com/mr-albanese-goes-to-madrid-australia-on-the-alliance-path-to-global-nato/
Power and gas giant Origin Energy has been dealt a record $17 million fine after its automated processes breached legal obligations owed to tens of thousands of customers facing financial hardship across Australia. The Federal Court’s decision announced on Wednesday, which followed legal action launched by the Australian Energy Regulator, is the largest penalty ever imposed for breaking national energy retailing regulations, says Nick Toscano.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/origin-energy-hit-with-record-fine-for-failing-distressed-customers-20220629-p5axra.html
Postponing the real pain of the Albanese government’s promised safeguard mechanism changes until later this decade may not be the cheapest option for Australia’s largest industrial carbon emitters, says the consultancy that modelled Labor’s pre-election climate change policy.
https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/slower-rise-for-emissions-safeguard-may-cost-more-says-labor-modeller-20220629-p5axs1
Of all the incoming government’s priority reforms, the creation of a national anti-corruption commission is probably not front of mind for corporate executives. But it should be, writes Tim Wellington.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/be-prepared-new-integrity-body-will-really-mean-business/news-story/abbb6e713f4c7ebc9f53322f55555d3e
Michael Pascoe describes the greed undermining privatisation and demutualisation. He says the spectacular burst of customer dissatisfaction with Qantas has focused a laser on the perceived failures of privatising government businesses – letting various investment bankers, ticket clippers and would-be robber barons make off with assets of the common wealth.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2022/06/29/michael-pascoe-greed-privatisation-demutualisation/
Sarah Martin tells us that just 24 medical practitioners received direct assistance to come to Australia under a travel program announced by the Morrison government which promised to bring an extra 2,000 doctors and nurses into the country.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/29/just-24-health-workers-helped-under-morrison-government-scheme-to-bring-2000-medics-to-australia
Alexandra Smith reckons the Barilaro saga is an own goal for the Perrottet government. She concludes with, “The federal election clearly demonstrated that voters care about integrity in government and voters will punish politicians if there is a sense they are looking after their own, not the people who elected them. They are the facts, premier.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/barilaro-saga-is-an-own-goal-for-perrottet-government-20220628-p5axe1.html
Australia’s employment services system is about to have a major shake-up commencing on July 4th. The lamentable ‘jobactive’ (no capital ‘j’) is being replaced by a new program ‘Workforce Australia’. Will Workforce Australia be any better than previous designs, wonders David O’Halloran.
https://johnmenadue.com/david-ohalloran-workforce-australia-will-repeat-the-same-mistakes-as-jobactive/
According to Chris Barrett, Australia is wargaming with allies about the best way to stand up to Russia at next week’s G20 foreign ministers meeting in Bali without derailing Indonesia’s presidency of the group of leading economies.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/penny-wong-wargames-g20-message-for-putin-s-foreign-minister-20220629-p5axo6.html
Rob Harris writes that Anthony Albanese will tell a critical NATO summit that under his leadership a “mature” Australia will stand up against threats to democracy in the Indo-Pacific and further afield, as western nations prepare to further isolate Russia on the world stage.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/a-mature-australia-will-stand-up-for-democratic-values-in-indo-pacific-and-the-world-albanese-20220629-p5axi6.html
Now that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s Labor government has settled, it needs to make child sexual exploitation a national priority, urges John Coyne.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/it-s-dark-sinister-and-no-one-wants-to-talk-about-it-but-we-must-tackle-child-sexual-exploitation-20220629-p5axok.html
With a new Government it is time for Health System Reform. In fact, reform is long overdue, argue John Blackwell and Kerry Goulston.
https://johnmenadue.com/we-need-a-healthcare-reform-commission/
The appointment of a planning minister whose brother is a lobbyist for major developers has raised concerns about potential conflict, writes Catherine Williams.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/siblings-planning-ties-highlight-flaws-in-lobbying-laws-20220629-p5axnb.html
Triple vaccination seems to reduce the chance of long COVID – but we still need to prepare for a jump in cases, warn these health experts.
https://theconversation.com/triple-vaccination-seems-to-reduce-the-chance-of-long-covid-but-we-still-need-to-prepare-for-a-jump-in-cases-183428
The European Union wants to turn to Australia for the supply of critical raw materials including lithium and iron ore and move away from relying on Russia, as negotiations resume on a free trade agreement, reports Rachel Clun.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/european-union-looks-to-australia-over-russia-for-critical-materials-20220629-p5axmi.html
Mike Foley and Nick Toscano write that Australia’s energy market operator is preparing for more coal-fired power stations to close down many years earlier than planned and expects all of Victoria’s coal plants to be shut by 2032, demanding a massive expansion of renewable energy and 10,000 extra kilometres of power lines to connect the grid.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/act-now-grid-chief-urges-renewable-boom-as-early-coal-closures-loom-20220629-p5axjj.html
The SMH is doing series of articles explaining the way the Lismore flood disaster unfolded and it points to some failures of emergency services management. The editorial below explains it.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-must-rethink-its-flood-strategy-after-lismore-failures-20220629-p5axta.html
And here are the articles.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/how-lismore-flood-turned-to-tragedy-20220627-p5ax2f.html
https://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2022/lismore-flooding/index.html
The NSW ICAC is examining more developer/estate agent/councillor naughtiness.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/councillor-s-wife-says-son-s-name-on-35-million-contract-an-error-icac-hears-20220629-p5axnc.html
The Reverend Dr Michael Jensen tries here to parse the results of the census regarding religiosity.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/not-my-tribe-australians-have-turned-their-back-on-religion-but-not-on-their-faith-20220629-p5axp2.html
And Peta Credlin mounts a rear-guard action.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/decline-of-christianity-is-aloss-for-everyone/news-story/cff5e22baadb0ed0dee99747fb06b8c1
“Arsehole of the Week” nomination goes to US singer R Kelly who has just been sentenced to 30 years in prison on sexual abuse charges.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jun/29/r-kelly-sentenced-sexual-abuse
Cartoon Corner
Glen Le Lievre (with a gif)
https://twitter.com/i/status/1542028080101101568
David Pope
Cathy Wilcox
John Shakespeare
Leak
From the US
Thanks BK. It would be awesome if the government could neutralise the right wing sleeper cell in the AAT by closing the AAT down and starting again.
If most of the current appointees had been selected on merit, I would not be keen on getting rid of them simply because the LNP had put them there. However, given the evidence that so many appointments by the previous lot were politically based, and that many of those appointees aren’t especially qualified, it sounds like a reasonable option.
I’m not sure how the conditions of their appointment would affect things – ie whether abolishing the AAT and terminating appointments can be done without triggering a massive compensation bill.
It not about a magic number. It is about dealing with the reality. The Greens are going tobe so disappointed.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/act-now-grid-chief-urges-renewable-boom-as-early-coal-closures-loom-20220629-p5axjj.html
Score 24/2000
Morrison/Hunt FAIL.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/29/just-24-health-workers-helped-under-morrison-government-scheme-to-bring-2000-medics-to-australia
Same old, same old?
Conflicts of interest do not always have to be in operation to be real.
Andrews needs to fix the Planning Minister’s perceived conflict of interest.
Dana Daniel reports that the Albanese government is refusing to cover aged care providers’ rising costs, including a wage increase awarded this Friday, surprising providers who expected funding to rise under Labor. Honestly, this will put many providers over the top. Wages represent 80% of all costs in running a facility, so how will they be forced to act do you think?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/an-effective-cut-albanese-government-refuses-to-cover-rising-aged-care-costs-20220629-p5axrc.html
Nothing personal, BK, but I reckon the solution might be that more than a few of them could cut into their massive profits to pay the increase in wages.
1. Turkey’s gain is the modernization of its F 16 fighter fleet.
2. The world’s gain is that Turkey has brokered a deal with Russia in which Russia allows Turkey to oversee the export of 25 million tons of stockpiled grain from Ukraine.
3. NATO’s gain is a vastly strengthened northern flack with Finland and Sweden to join NATO along with a strengthened southern flank by way of improved fighter capacity in Turkey.
But what is in it for Putin?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/29/erdogan-gains-from-lifting-sweden-and-finland-nato-veto-with-us-fighter-jet-promise
‘C@tmomma says:
Thursday, June 30, 2022 at 7:37 am
Dana Daniel reports that the Albanese government is refusing to cover aged care providers’ rising costs, including a wage increase awarded this Friday, surprising providers who expected funding to rise under Labor. Honestly, this will put many providers over the top. Wages represent 80% of all costs in running a facility, so how will they be forced to act do you think?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/an-effective-cut-albanese-government-refuses-to-cover-rising-aged-care-costs-20220629-p5axrc.html
Nothing personal, BK, but I reckon the solution might be that more than a few of them could cut into their massive profits to pay the increase in wages.’
———————————-
But, not so long ago, half of them were running at a loss. I don’t know about the current figure.
https://www.theweeklysource.com.au/52-of-aged-care-homes-running-at-a-loss-stewartbrown-warns-more-residential-care-providers-at-risk-of-closure-without-reform/
Australia Institute report into AAT
https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/P1167-Cronyism-in-appointments-to-the-AAT-Web21-copy.pdf
Thanks so much BK
Boerwarsays:
Thursday, June 30, 2022 at 7:30 am
Conflicts of interest do not always have to be in operation to be real.
Andrews needs to fix the Planning Minister’s perceived conflict of interest.
_____________________
Welcome to Victoria. Nothing will happen, he will just say there is no conflict and carry on.
He is not called Dictator Dan for nothing.
There was an interesting RN radio piece on the history of inflation yesterday – causes and solutions. You got the usual guff from a Syd uni economist saying it was only wage restraint, interest rates, higher unemployment and recessions that work because people are sucks, they just bake in inflation in their day to day lives and keep spending if they get help from governments.
Only one chap mentioned that there is evidence inflation is often in large part caused by the maliciousness of the market and profiteering by large companies or sector market failure.
Perhaps what government needs to consider is not so much subsidising people in dealing with cost increases, or even encouraging wage rises, but look into intervening in the market in sectors that are being bad faith players. Inflation and boom and bust seems to be a feature of our market economy – governments of all persuasions are right to find levers to limit the damage of this driverless train. So why not targeted direct intervention (beyond interest rates etc)? Nationalise (or the threat of it). Set up government owned competition. Regulate. Enhance and Enforce existing regulations. If a company or a set of companies are taking advantage of society, it is governments responsibility to (carefully) intervene.
NASA said it plans to release several images beginning at 10:30 am ET (14:30 UTC) on July 12, the result of Webb’s “first light” observations. NASA’s deputy administrator, Pam Melroy, said she was blown away by the images Webb has produced so far. “What I have seen moved me, as a scientist, as an engineer, and as a human being,” she said.
this ishue with Blanthorn in lplaning is somthing Anndrews should have realized but an exxample of media liberal bias when gorege brandis appointed his sons loyer and chief of staff to aat and Ross vasta mps brother to family cought after his father was sacked from suprime cought qld foor his friendship with joe Bjkielepetersons police comitioner the media were not conserned
the morrison government also stacked the Ndis bord with former Viictorian premier Denis napthine as chair with only qualification being has a son with a disability and was the minister responsible inkennit government and peta Seetun former nsw mp as welll as the coughts and autstralia poast
Nothing personal, BK, but I reckon the solution might be that more than a few of them could cut into their massive profits to pay the increase in wages.
__________
C@t
Facilities like ours are governed by a board of directors that are paid NIL. We budgeted this year to date to run with a substantial operating loss and we will end up hitting abot 60% of that loss. In setting the budget we declared that quality of care was not negotiable – and three recent assessments by the government have been glowing in that respect.
_____
Boerwar
Currently more than 60% are working with operational losses.
Jan 6 @ #19 Thursday, June 30th, 2022 – 7:55 am
The local Friedman Cartel (aka the LNP) have spent most of the last 50 years knowingly pushing the post Bretton Woods scam via captured Economics Departments, so it’s hardly any wonder that the lies are unquestioned.
‘BK says:
Thursday, June 30, 2022 at 8:07 am
Nothing personal, BK, but I reckon the solution might be that more than a few of them could cut into their massive profits to pay the increase in wages.
__________
C@t
Facilities like ours are governed by a board of directors that are paid NIL. We budgeted this year to date to run with a substantial operating loss and we will end up hitting abot 60% of that loss. In setting the budget we declared that quality of care was not negotiable – and three recent assessments by the government have been glowing in that respect.
_____
Boerwar
Currently more than 60% are working with operational losses.’
———————————
Thank you, BK. My assumption is that substantial social funding by way of revenue transfers from the public purse are required. This can only grow as the Boomer Bulge chokes the social welfare system. I note that there is a substantial unmet demand with respect to help for aged people in their homes which would, at least, reduce some of the aged care facilities demand. I would be interesting to know your views on this.
Boerwar @ #15 Thursday, June 30th, 2022 – 7:41 am
Did you actually read the article, Boerwar, or just the headline? Not to mention the figures were from 2020 and looking backwards (was that before the Morrison government increased the subsidies to Aged Care Providers as a result of the Royal Commission?)
Nevertheless, it states this:
The results – which exclude the “significant effect” of the Government’s COVID spending measures to compare ‘apples with apples’ – initially appear to show an improvement.
For FY20, revenue exceeded expenditure by an average of $2.62 per bed day (this increased to $7.66 when COVID revenue was factored in).
This raised the average operating result after COVID revenue and expenditure to a surplus of $2.60 per bed day – compare this to a deficit of $1.69 per bed day for the same period in 2019.
This was also bolded:
Of course, we know that more funding is on its way, with the deadline for the Royal Commission’s Final Report now just a month away.
Not to mention that the figures were skewed by this:
However, the average operating result nationally was still a deficit of $5.06 per bed day, in part thanks to the financial hit experienced by Victorian facilities during its second coronavirus wave.
So I think I’ll stick to my assessment that there are more than a few Aged Care facility owners that could afford to cut into their profits to pay more to their staff:
Heritage Care residential aged care owner and managing director Tony Antonopoulos and his wife, Stacey, who between them own half the company.
Areti Arvanitis driving a Ferrari described in an Instagram post by her personal trainer as “the perfect leg-day vehicle to get home after 3 PB performances”.
Mr Antonopoulos’ Rolls-Royce, described as a Phantom Coupe Zenith Edition, the only one in Australasia and one of 50 in the world.
But what is in it for Putin?
================
How does he save face now? Taking donbas, a land bridge to Crimea and most of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast seems small fry for what he has lost. He kept driving past off ramps and now there are none in sight.
Can he sell this as a win to a Russians and keep the wolves at bay after this calamitous failure? Or does he feel he is now tied to an unwinnable war? We have seen these drag on before – pride before the Armageddon? I’ve said it before, war has its own momentum, waiting for Putin to see sense and take an off ramp seems optimistic. The hope is he doesn’t have as big a stranglehold on domestic power and someone sends him off to a dacha in the tundra.
Latest from Grumpy Geezer
https://theaimn.com/cuddly-pete/
BK @ #23 Thursday, June 30th, 2022 – 8:07 am
Thanks, BK. That’s why I was careful to say ‘more than a few’ could afford to pay increased wages and get a nurse on site 24/7 what’s more. I’m sure you’re doing the best you can with the limited resources you have at your disposal.
Still, the Aged Care sector is a diabolical problem that needs structural reform. On that I think we can all agree.
I’ve said it before, war has its own momentum, waiting for Putin to see sense and take an off ramp seems optimistic.
Deciding this week to send nuclear capable missile batteries to Belarus doesn’t make me hopeful.
Just a thought on parliamentary advisors: I have a naïve vision of what happens when new draft legislation is released on the hill. The lights burn brightly in every office that night as a multitude of advisors each analyse and dissect the (sometimes) substantial document. Same happens when a raft of new amendments are proposed.
In all likelihood, their efforts are being substantially duplicated in every member’s office. And in many cases, the outcome of their efforts is similar, or identical, in every member’s office. Each piece of new legislation will be mostly either good (or bad, depending on one’s leaning) with some amendments being also desirable. Individually, very few advisors may discover a fatal flaw or a nugget of useful information that could improve the legislation.
Just continuing the thought: couldn’t the swathe of new independents pool their one-each Canberra-based advisor to help deal with the new legislation and amendments that are said to need four people to deal with? Many of these new independents seem to be similarly inclined in their views and interests.
Economies of scale in the pooling of effort could achieve useful outcomes. Pooled advisors could share thoughts and bounce ideas off each other. Benefits may flow from that too.
Just a thought.
Jan 6 says:
Thursday, June 30, 2022 at 7:55 am
There was an interesting RN radio piece on the history of inflation yesterday – causes and solutions. You got the usual guff from a Syd uni economist saying it was only wage restraint, interest rates, higher unemployment and recessions that work because people are sucks, they just bake in inflation in their day to day lives and keep spending if they get help from governments.
Economy-wide inflation is ultimately caused by excess demand – that is, demand for goods and services that cannot be met by a given productive capacity.
The solutions to inflation lie in either scaling down demand or increasing the productive capacity of the economy. The former can be done quickly, the latter usually only gradually. Governments should concentrate their thinking and the actions on the latter. Increase the supply and mobility of labour. Support access to the labour market across the whole population. Increase the embedded levels of skill, education and knowledge of the workforce. Improve the capital stock. Drive productivity improvements all the time. Force anti-monopolist measures onto markets. Make markets more flexible and adaptable. Take measures to prevent abuse of supply chains. Tune fiscal policy around price stability and employment growth. Maintain competitive, liquid, flexible, liberalised and deep capital markets. Use monetary powers to keep the base discount rate modestly positive. This is not beyond us.
From WB table based on Census (Refer thread coming to our census),
1. LNP holds all low income seats.
2. LNP does not hold a single seat where percentage of people of non-English speaking background is above 50%.
I note that there is a substantial unmet demand with respect to help for aged people in their homes which would, at least, reduce some of the aged care facilities demand. I would be interesting to know your views on this.
_______
Boerwar
There still is a substantial shortage of home care packages – and the capacity to actually service those currently using them.
The result of the increased use of HCPs is that, contrary to the previous norm, residents are coming in later in life and with higher levels of need. They stay in the facilities for shorter times before they depart. Each time there is a loss and a replacement resident, bed days are lost and significant administrative and care arrangements have to be put in place. I can’t see this trajectory changing any time soon.
”
And Peta Credlin mounts a rear-guard action.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/decline-of-christianity-is-aloss-for-everyone/news-story/cff5e22baadb0ed0dee99747fb06b8c1
”
I don’t agree with Credlin that Christianity is declining here in Australia or anywhere else.
From Australian perspective about 38% people don’t want to follow Christianity religiously. It doesn’t mean that they are Christians by nature.
Morning all. Thanks for the excellent roundup BK and some meaty pieces to digest. NATO expanding to a global alliance of democracy makes a lot of sense.
On the foreign affairs front Penny Wong continues to kick goals, meeting the Vietnamese government to talk security but still raising the caee of a detainee Australian man.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-30/wong-raises-chau-case-after-arbitrary-detention-ruling-from-un/101192784
BK @ #8 Thursday, June 30th, 2022 – 7:05 am
Seems it might have occurred to Labor that antagonizing the crossbench was not so clever after all …
So … why the change from breast-beating about non-negotiable mandates and threats to cut crossbench staff to sensible and reasonable negotiation? Well, perhaps it finally dawned on them that …
Whatever the reason, let’s hope they continue to see sense.
BK @ #34 Thursday, June 30th, 2022 – 8:46 am
My OH has a level 4 package We are very lucky with that.
I had to put him into respite while I was in hospital for knee surgery.
I had real issues finding a place for him and was thinking I would have to delay the surgery.
At this point there was not enough in his package to cover regular visits to check on him and ensure he was eating and taking his medication.
P1
Really don’t see any difference between what Bowen said yesterday and what Labor has been saying basically forever but you be you.
Dreyfuss has raised a strong case to dismantle and replace the AAT. It isn’t only the partisan nature of Liberal appointees.
“ In 2018 a review by former high court chief justice, Ian Callinan, called for major changes to fix the tribunal’s backlog of cases, particularly in the migration division, which it partly attributed to members without legal training struggling to write decisions.”
Being a failed politician does not make you a lawyer.
”
Boerwarsays:
Thursday, June 30, 2022 at 7:29 am
Score 24/2000
Morrison/Hunt FAIL.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/29/just-24-health-workers-helped-under-morrison-government-scheme-to-bring-2000-medics-to-australia
Same old, same old?
”
I was told by a Doctor friend, who is a Cardiologist, that he migrated to Australia because he wanted to reduce his workload, which was 16 hours a day from the country he came from eventhough he was earning a lot of money there.
Also, because of Pandemic a lot of doctors were stuck in the countries they were working.
So you can’t put the blame on Morrison/ Hunt on atleast this issue.
Like shortage of skills across the board because of reduction in migration due to Pandemic, there is shortage of skills in Doctors.
This makes theoretical sense, but the argument being put is that economy wide inflation starts with specific price increases that has little to do with demand then is hijacked by various forces. That is, headline inflation quickly becomes underlying inflation and it doesnt always have much to do with increasing demand. Demand for fuel and lettuce hasnt increased much. In fact, I would suggest that lettuce demand has dropped off. Yet prices are high. Demand for local electricity hasnt changed significantly, costs of local production (or local retail) of electricity hasnt changed significantly, yet here we are.
The idea that the market sets a perfect price for all things at all times is in question. There are too many areas where fierce competition doesnt exist. Too many areas where low capital productivity has become a baseline (baked into the systems of all companies that are supposedly competition with each other) and there is no market or government pressure to crack this open. And thats before we start on the cartels and collusion. Greed is supposed to create competition. Magic. But surely it can just as easily lead to lack of competition and lazy capital.
I have heard it time and again by execs in large corporations – competitive tenders are for mugs. Yes, large corporations can increase the productivity of capital, but being so large also gives them spare resources and the power to control the market and avoid competition.
Bowen talked much more freely yesterday.
Pre-election there was no talk of exceeding emissions targets. Labor avoided any opportunity for opponents to start up a scare campaign.
Now in Govt with a pro-renewable energy election result, the shackles are released on Bowen and Labor.
Ven
All those factors pertained when they made the announcement. What mattered was the announcement. Not the facts of the ground.
Same old same old.
Bowen will send a Bill to the House that meets Labor’s campaign promise: 43%.
Anything over that is the sort of gravy when you have a government that is not the Coalition.
All those who made repeated statements about ‘same old same old’ were misleading voters.
They were either lying or they were wrong.
They should apologize.
C@tmomma @ #13 Thursday, June 30th, 2022 – 7:37 am
Yes to that. Any providers who want to have a public whinge about funding should make their books/accounting records public first.
It’s so easy for a business to say “we can’t afford any new costs”. Almost all of them will, irrespective of whether or not it’s true. Usually while assuming the mantle of small-business martyrdom. “Look how hard I work”, “I make the economy go”, etc., etc.. Heard it all before; shouldn’t be taken at face value.
”
Jan 6says:
Thursday, June 30, 2022 at 9:10 am
Economy-wide inflation is ultimately caused by excess demand – that is, demand for goods and services that cannot be met by a given productive capacity.
This makes theoretical sense, but the argument being put is that economy wide inflation starts with specific price increases that has little to do with demand then is hijacked by various forces. That is, headline inflation quickly becomes underlying inflation and it doesnt always have much to do with increasing demand. Demand for fuel and lettuce hasnt increased much. In fact, I would suggest that lettuce demand has dropped off. Yet prices are high. Demand for local electricity hasnt changed significantly, costs of local production (or local retail) of electricity hasnt changed significantly, yet here we are.
The idea that the market sets a perfect price for all things at all times is in question. There are too many areas where fierce competition doesnt exist. Too many areas where low capital productivity has become a baseline (baked into the systems of all companies that are supposedly competition with each other) and there is no market or government pressure to crack this open. And thats before we start on the cartels and collusion. Greed is supposed to create competition. Magic. But surely it can just as easily lead to lack of competition and lazy capital.
I have heard it time and again by execs in large corporations – competitive tenders are for mugs. Yes, large corporations can increase the productivity of capital, but being so large also gives them spare resources and the power to control the market and avoid competition.
”
Totally agree. IMO, the economic theories based on 19th century studies are not applicable in 21st century. The Adam Smiths and Karl Marxs of the world did a lot of damage to ordinary people of the world.
Stole your quote.
Inflation is caused by a misallocation of resources. That misallocation could be anywhere, from supply-side, demand-side through to market inefficiency or failure.
“Economy-wide inflation is ultimately caused by excess demand – that is, demand for goods and services that cannot be met by a given productive capacity.”
The difficulty is that the economy may be very wide. In the case of gas that we produce and which was nicely feeding our domestic electricity power generators, that economy is worldwide. And the excess demand is substantially from outside Australia. Our supply shortage is caused by Europe’s excess demand.
It would be nice if our power generators had seen the wisdom of entering long-term, stable price contracts for the supply of gas, rather than relying on the vagaries of the spot market. Our domestic inflation would be less troublesome.
#weatheronPB
Cool wet unmoving soundless world,
hides under the unbroken smooth grey sky.
Tiny hesitant movements betray themselves.