American pollster Morning Consult’s current read on various international leaders’ domestic approval credits Anthony Albanese with an approval rating of 57%, up six on his debut showing last month, with disapproval up one to 26% and the balance accounted for by a drop in the uncommitted. It seems this poll is conducted on a daily basis and its published numbers are seven-day rolling averages – I’m not sure how often updates are published, but this one came out a week ago, from polling conducted between June 15 to 21.
In the absence of anything to tell us on voting intention or leadership approval, the most interesting finding of the fortnightly Essential Research survey for mine is that 67% support the Fair Work Commission’s decision to increase the minimum wage by 5.2%, with only 15% opposed. It appears Essential Research now has a regular question on whether Australia is headed in the right or wrong direction, the latest figures of 47% and 29% differing little from the result a fortnight ago, which registered a post-election surge of optimism.
The survey also features questions on the gas crisis and emissions targets, which to my mind are flawed by a lack of response options capturing anti-renewables climate skeptic sentiment. Forty-five per cent blamed the gas crisis on “years of neglect and of successive governments” when given a choice between that and “factors that couldn’t have been predicted, like the war in the Ukraine and the pandemic” and the “fossil fuel lobby and the LNP” having “deliberately fought against the transition to renewables”, which scored 35% and 20% respectively. Forty-nine per cent felt the government should implement the emissions reductions target it took to the election and 30% felt it should go further, with “unsure” the only option for those of neither opinion.
There were two questions on foreign policy, one of which found overwhelming majorities felt it important to have close relationships with the United States, Pacific nations and European Union nations, with a more modest 58% feeling the same way about China and 33% doing so about Russia. Sixty-two per cent believed “Australia should take a more assertive role in protecting our national interest”, compared with 38% who favoured the alternative option of “Australia should look for opportunities to increase global cooperation”. The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1087.
For a lot more on the foreign policy front, the Lowy Institute has published its annual in-depth poll on the subject, which I haven’t had time to look at properly yet. It would seem declining confidence in Joe Biden is not a purely domestic affair, with 58% having confidence in him to do the right thing in world affairs, down from 69% last year. This places him effectively level with Boris Johnson on 59% and behind Jacinda Ardern on 87%, Emmanuel Macron on 67% and Japan’s Fumio Kishidia (who I’m guessing respondents weren’t required to recognise by name) on 65%. Vlaidimir Putin was down ten points to 6%, placing him on par with Kim Jong-un on 5%. The survey was conducted March 15 to 28 from a sample of 2006.
There’ll be much angst from Labor bludgers when the bill sails through the parliament…
davo @ #1150 Sunday, July 3rd, 2022 – 6:09 pm
Ho hum.
Right on que ASPI on 9 saying that the failures in the Pacific are the responsibility of both sides of politics.
Will the Greens not understand again that you need to legislate policies that are supported by the majority.
43% has broad support, so for Labor to go back on that will be just another carbon tax lie scenario. Of course Greens may know this and they just don’t care about broad support instead it is always about creating a wedge for their own political benefit.
But what is political beneficial to the Greens is actually really bad for climate action, as history could repeat itself where we end up with nothing.
C@t:
I was at Coogee today and the sea was just incredible!
Anyone watched “Back To The Future”? I missed it. Can someone please summarize the plot?
Oh, wait … just read the latest posts. Thanks.
I shall just leave this quote by Player One (again), as a public service incase anyone is taken in by them. I leave it to the reader to determine who Player One votes for in Gilmore 😉
Player One @ Thursday, June 9, 2022 at 7:23 pm
“sprocket_ @ #353 Thursday, June 9th, 2022 – 6:57 pm
Player One -you could change it to Fiona Phillips Country[“]
I am happy to support Fiona Phillips if she supports genuine action on climate change.
Waiting … waiting …”
Edit: added a missing quotation mark in the original post.
TPOF @ #1148 Sunday, July 3rd, 2022 – 6:05 pm
It’s all they’ve got. Honestly you’d think The Greens had MORE Senators than Labor the way they carry on. You would think they might reflect on the fact that Labor got 3 Senators elected from WA and pointers to the nation’s mood like that, but no, The Greens have a blocking vote and they’re going to try and wedge Labor with it.
Saw footage of Albo in Paris and once again thought how good it is to have a PM who doesn’t look slovenly and unkempt. Even in jeans and tee Albo was rocking it. Towards the end Scomo just looked like a slob. I guess looking back in hindsight he knew the jig was up and he just didn’t give a shit about his appearance.
Richard Marles has been quite a nice surprise as Acting PM.
Mind you, not in the same league as the previous Deputy PM, the one and only Barnaby Joyce.
Confessions @ #1155 Sunday, July 3rd, 2022 – 6:15 pm
I hope you stood well away from the sea, ‘fess!
The EU free trade agreement with Australia will also lock in guaranteed realistic targets (floor of 43%)
that will required for the agreement to be fully enacted. So the flagman is putting at risk over 340 billion in trade which is a further disgrace. Is there no realistic target that will satisfy flagman and friends?
https://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/negotiations/aeufta/default
Confessions @ #1159 Sunday, July 3rd, 2022 – 6:19 pm
He was probably comfort eating as well. 😉
BK:
Nobody compares to Barnaby for total incompetence!
BK at 6.19
Richard Marles has been quite a nice surprise as Acting PM.
Mind you, not in the same league as the previous Deputy PM, the one and only Barnaby Joyce.
____________
Less comedy?
Rex Douglas @ #1151 Sunday, July 3rd, 2022 – 6:10 pm
How have you come by this inside knowledge, Rex Douglas? Or are you just making it up again?
BJ HAS gone quiet lately. Maybe the ABC aren’t taking his calls, begging them to let him on the TV, any more? 🙂
C@t:
The beach was closed and the wind was so strong it was whipping the rain quite painfully against my face! I could only stand outside for a few minutes before it became unbearable.
Less comedy?
++++++
Less a lot of things!
None of which was a suitable attribute.
Griff @ #1157 Sunday, July 3rd, 2022 – 6:17 pm
Still waiting …
davo @ #1162 Sunday, July 3rd, 2022 – 6:20 pm
Ummm. Let me guess … 75%?
I’m tipping this crossbench will ensure we hit 75% by 2030.
Player One @ Sunday, July 3, 2022 at 6:23 pm
Well yes, you are. And the election is over.
What a shyster.
Griff @ #1173 Sunday, July 3rd, 2022 – 6:32 pm
Did the electorate win? Or was it one of the major parties?
Less comedy?
++++++
Less a lot of things!
None of which was a suitable attribute.
——————————————————-
Hi BK
Prior to the election on one day encountering Zoe Daniel in a local street I inter alia proudly spent many minutes informing her of the infidelities and character of the Beetrooter which she was unaware of.
C@t
The article is as good as far as it goes, though it doesn’t go into anywhere enough detail. It boils down to the following.
– Nearly all of the territory now occupied by Russia was taken in late February.
– Russia has made steady but small territorial gains over the last 2 months.
– Russia has relied on WWII tactics to do this. Artillery barrage, followed by storming of troops.
– If nothing else changes you can expect Russia to keep eating territory, but slowly.
– Change will happen.
Russia’s idea of winning is to force a negotiation. Ukraine surrenders Donbas, much of the south and the Kherson oblast. We all know Russia will be acting in bad faith. Its intention to obliterate Ukraine politically and culturally remains. After a few years of relative quiet, Russia will launch an assault on Odessa, then Dnipro and so on. Assuming it has the economic capacity.
Recent escalation of Russian terrorism (deliberate attacks on civilians) is sadly all too predictable. Again, its about forcing an unfavourable outcome on Ukraine. One sad thing about wars is that aggressors always miscalculate the effect of terrorising civilians.
Russia has numerical advantage in terms of artillery. However ten times is an overstatement. What limits the actual rate of shells is not the artillery pieces in play, but rather logistics. This is Russia’s main weakness. Incidentally, Russia has been raiding Belarus’s stocks of munitions lately.
Ukraine made a big thing out of obtaining modern Western artillery. What it has now isn’t enough to go on the offensive, but it is actually hurting Russia. In the last couple of weeks, Ukraine has started using its (limited number of) HIMARS long range rocket launchers. There are maps published including data from satellites that were intended to spot fires. What they’re showing is a lot of non-natural fires happening deep behind Russian lines. The reports of ammunition depots exploding aren’t telling the whole story either. There’s lots that don’t get reported. Only tonight, things started exploding in the Russian occupied Melitopol airport. Russia really doesn’t have an answer to HIMARS and Ukraine is using it well.
Another thing not often reported is that Russia has multiple issues with recruitment. A lot of its soldiers are on short term contracts and got pressed into service with minimal training. The cannon fodder being used in the latest attacks is coming mostly from the separatist areas. Poorly trained and poorly equipped. They are running out of able bodied men. Incidentally the most recent days have seen Russia throw its entire reserves into battle. Now, it does have more (again short term contracts) recruits in training. But that supply is limited for various reasons.
Incidentally, Russia is getting critically short of precision guided munitions. The Soviet era missiles are great for terrorism, but without the accuracy, the actual military value is limited. Russia is also burning through its inventory of tanks. That’s a whole other story.
Ukraine can easily lose this. A lot of its current armour is actually captured. There are Ukrainian units that have suffered badly. There are still territorial defense units with crap equipment. NATO can still help out a lot on the basics. There is a view on the Russian side that Ukraine will fold. That’s somewhat optimistic on their part.
Ukraine can easily win this. Supplies from the US under lend lease are now ramping up. Ukraine needs an order of magnitude more in terms of artillery and it could use hundreds of tanks (they will speed things up). What its doing now is focusing on Russian attrition and on gradually degrading Russian supplies and logistics. HIMARS has a huge “to do” list. The airport is one thing. All those rail bridges are another. Remember, Russian logistics is all about rail. The tactic Russia currently employs to take ground only works so long as you can keep transporting artillery shells. Those things are heavy and consume massive resources to get to the front. You’ll see what happens next.
Rex Douglassays:
Sunday, July 3, 2022 at 6:27 pm
And how will they do that?
Yes, the electorate won. They got the party they voted for into government.
(Democracy isn’t that hard to work out).
Well, in that case, Rex, the legislation won’t sail through, because that would require some major negotiations.
Hi Griff 🙂
Player Onesays:
Sunday, July 3, 2022 at 6:33 pm
You’d be waiting for the pork to answer that question.
I’m dead certain we will hit 75% somewhere between 2031 and 2049.
Speaking of comedy and political leadership…a week before losing in 1996, PM Paul Keating was interviewed by Roy Slaven and HG Nelson…on 7.30! Yes, the intro was from Kerry ‘Bloodnut’ O’Brien…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgQlAA099x0
It wasn’t a fluke. On another programme, they interviewed former PM Bob Hawke…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R39plBXdRMg
Simpler times?
Cud Chewer @ Sunday, July 3, 2022 at 6:39 pm
Hi Cud Chewer 🙂
davo @ #1182 Sunday, July 3rd, 2022 – 6:44 pm
And how’s your bitcoin investment coming along?
zoomster @ #1178 Sunday, July 3rd, 2022 – 6:36 pm
How did you go at it?
A sea lion wearing grumpy pants. You see everything on Pollbludger if you hang around long enough 😉
…fine, thanks, P1.
Now that the flagman has been expertly wedged by Pocock, the minimum 43% targets are dead certainty to be passed through unless he doesn’t want to go the way of meg lees.
Okay Mr Know-It-All Cud Chewer! 😆
Russia really doesn’t have an answer to HIMARS and Ukraine is using it well.
That would be the satellite guidance systems. 😉
This is the 3rd one-in-a-thousand-years flood in Western Sydney in the last 18 months.
Doesn’t Climate Change understand political spin?
Doesn’t Climate Change understand political spin?
—————————-
Or Scott from Marketing even in hiding!
What’s the CCP’s 2030 target? Anywhere near as low as 43%?
Sprocket_ at 7.03
This is the 3rd one-in-a-thousand-years flood in Western Sydney in the last 18 months.
Doesn’t Climate Change understand political spin?
____________
I loved Coalition figures earlier this year plucking numbers out of their arses. Barnaby’s 1 in 3500 was the best…
https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/tv/morning-shows/barnaby-joyces-onein3500year-nsw-flood-comment-slammed-on-sunrise/news-story/5d24b6dbc275f4baf8ad67360058a732
It so happens Wikipedia has a page devoted to the time when, according to Barnaby, there would’ve been due to be a disastrous flood event in northern NSW…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/15th_century_BC
Oh no! Wikipedia’s list is deficient! No ‘big arse northern NSW flood’!
Whenever someone talks to me about a thing being rare, I look for an opportunity to insert ‘1 in 3500 year event’ in the conversation…
”
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, July 3, 2022 at 6:23 pm
BJ HAS gone quiet lately. Maybe the ABC aren’t taking his calls, begging them to let him on the TV, any more?
”
Once BJ said on air on ABC that ABC had to do whatever LNP asked them to do because LNP government is providing them with funds.
If you apply the same logic of BJ then ABX should not care about them and do as ALP government says.
If you are still around cud, here is a very pretty plot.
Ven
One thing I’ve noticed, especially on Nine, is how often the potato head has gotten a soundbite. Considering how infrequently Albo was given any recognition this time last electoral cycle.
Listening to ABC Sydney tonight – how embarrassing.
They spent 9+ years bowing smoke up the Liberal arses on ‘what is the Climate Change hysteria?’, and now they have to report on inundation of people’s homes.
Embarrassing.
Griff
Yep, I’ve noticed. And of course we in Australia are all pretending its not happening. So we now don’t have enough data to answer the question of whether the recent surge in covid is because of variants or because of continued abandonment of sensible behaviours, like mask wearing.
I think its a bit of both.
Cud Chewer @ Sunday, July 3, 2022 at 7:21 pm
Or a lot of both.
Omicron is throwing off variants more rapidly. We are wet and cold in Australia. And we are still tinkering with engineering safety in areas of congregation, let alone facilitating behavioural change with respect to masking.