Still nothing from Newspoll; the fortnightly Essential Research should be along this week, but may not tell us anything too exciting if it’s still holding off on resuming voting intention; and who knows what Roy Morgan might do.
Recent news items relevant to the federal sphere and within the ambit of this site:
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports on Liberal plans to get Josh Frydenberg back into federal parliament, which one party source rates as “only a matter of how and when”. However, finding a vehicle for his return is a problem with no obvious solution. While some are reportedly urging him to win back Kooyong, another Liberal is quoted saying an infestation of sandals and tofu in Hawthorn means the seat is now forever lost. Another idea is for him to win Higgins back from Labor, supposedly an easier task since Labor will receive weaker preference flows than an independent. There is also the difficulty that the local party is dominated by a moderate faction of which Frydenberg does not form part, despite efforts to cultivate an impression to the contrary as he struggled to fight off Monique Ryan. Suggestions he might try his hand on the metropolitan fringes at La Trobe and Monash are running into concerns that he might go the way of Kristina Keneally. Yet another source says he might sit out two terms, the idea being that conditions are likely to remain unfavourable for the party in 2025.
• The Australia Institute has published results from a poll of 1424 respondents conducted by Dynata from the day of the election on May 21 through to 25 which found 86% agreed that truth in political advertising laws should be in place by the time of the next election, with little demographic or partisan variation. Sixty-five per cent said they had been exposed to advertising they knew to be misleading at least once a week during the campaign.
• A further study by the Australia Institute found that Labor led the field on social media advertising with expenditure of more than $5 million, after its 2019 post-election review found its social media strategy had been lacking. The Coalition collectively spent around $3.5 million and the United Australia Party $1.7 million.
Election analysis tools:
• Jim Reed of Resolve Strategic has developed a three-pronged “pendulum” to deal with the limitations of the traditional Mackerras model, which entirely assumes two-party competition. Labor, the Coalition and “others” each get a two-sided prong, with margins against the other two recorded on opposite sides.
• David Barry again provides Senate preference calculators that work off the ballot paper data to allow you to observe how each parties’ preferences divided among the various other parties, which you can narrow down according to taste. The deluxe model involves a downloadable app that you can then populate with data files, but there is now a no-frills online version that is limited to above-the-line votes.
• Andrew Conway has a site that allows you to do all sorts of things with the Senate results once you have climbed its learning curve, such as conduct a double dissolution-style count in which twelve (or any other number you care to nominate) rather than six candidates are elected in each state (on a relevant state page, click the “recount” link, enter 12 in the vacancies box towards the bottom, and click “recount”. Its tools can be used not only on each Senate election going back to 2013, but also on New South Wales local government elections at which councillors were elected under the Senate-style single transferable vote system last December.
• Mitch Gooding offers a tool that allows you to replicate how you filled out your Senate paper and calculates exactly how your vote was chopped up and distributed through various exclusions in the count and which candidates it helped elect, if any.
Sorry Late Riser,
It’s a podcast on the Law Report on RN. Whoever is managing the ABC sharing department needs a kick up the bum.
Try going to the ABC Listen app and searching for Law Report Dreyfus
nath says:
Tuesday, June 28, 2022 at 7:52 pm
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid says:
Tuesday, June 28, 2022 at 7:47 pm
The other things about the change is that none of the non-profit employment providers had contracts renewed. It is now all for profit service providers.
___________
Such Fabulous largesse. I read a report that most of the money is scooped up by the overseas owners of these outfits. It’s been a tremendous rort. As much as I am disgusted by it, I’m equally as envious I haven’t been in on it.
_________________-
It is a huge rort, I have been meaning to have a look at these companies to see how aligned they are to the LNP, fits so well with the privatised welfare model, just need Indue to provide the cards.
I expect there will be an update to the Mark Considine etal book “Buying and selling the Poor” as this is a full on take over of the for profits.
I can imagine the margins on these Job provider contracts have been pretty juicy. Hire a few capable people on a good wicket to run the racket, and a whole of heap of kids on little pay, rent some cheap office space and away you go. The government even provides the computer system I believe.
Found it. Thanks sprocket_.
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/lawreport/attorney-general-mark-dreyfus/13949800
If you can find the Dreyfus interview on RN, starts off transactional, but gets into some meaty areas.
sprocket_ …further re ‘buttock raisers’…
From ‘Saving Private Ryan’ I learned about SNAFU (situation normal: all fucked up) and FUBAR (fucked up beyond all recognition.
Recently, I watched ‘For All Mankind’ (an Apple TV alternate history/sci fi show) and encouhtered BOHICA: bend over, here it comes again!
Rocket Lab appears to have successfully launched the CAPSTONE spacecraft from NZ into its (temporary) parking orbit:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HptHSdDYHrU
It’s now up to the Photon stage to get CAPSTONE into lunar orbit (a “near-rectilinear halo orbit”):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CAPSTONE_(spacecraft)
nath says:
Tuesday, June 28, 2022 at 8:04 pm
I can imagine the margins on these Job provider contracts have been pretty juicy. Hire a few capable people on a good wicket to run the racket, and a whole of heap of kids on little pay, rent some cheap office space and away you go. The government even provides the computer system I believe.
__________________
It gets even easier as the bulk of the ‘turnover’, or low risk jobseekers are shifted onto the online platform with minimal interaction with staff so the face to face contact is with the stream C or the ‘no hoper’ cohort so less work.
The outcomes payments are pretty high too, up to $12K to place a stream C for 12 weeks – so if you add the punitive penalties for refusing unsuitable work you can see the incentives for providers.
‘Will tactical voting doom the Tories at the next election? .. a more fluid and less tribal electorate could spell trouble for the Conservatives as they bid to cling to power’
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/06/tactical-voting-doom-tories-next-general-election/
Interesting article, with some number crunching on tactical voting
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid says:
Tuesday, June 28, 2022 at 8:12 pm
The outcomes payments are pretty high too, up to $12K to place a stream C for 12 weeks – so if you add the punitive penalties for refusing unsuitable work you can see the incentives for providers.
_____________
Good god. I had no idea. It’s well worth it for these providers to give generous kickbacks to companies to take these people on. It might be worth while for some investigators to take a long look at this sordid business.
Sorry, I didn’t see your earlier poroti.
By chance, I literally tuned in at T-5 secs. 🙂
“It might be worth while for some investigators to take a long look at this sordid business.”
Good place to start may be with an Auditor General report. Kick off a conversation in Parliament about propriety and value for $ even before it moves on to the morality of the treatment
of the “clients”. Hmmm…….Robodebt RC coming up as well?? And a FICAC on the way that may spend time perusing Auditor general reports for actionable matters??
The problem with the job services system was always giving the providers the compliance role over centerlink benefits – the NFP providers quit the system as 90% of the work was all on compliance, not about job placement.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/chlorine-gas-explosion
Much badness. 🙁
From a value for money perspective, if you cut out all the job providers, compliance police and other infrastructure around the mutual obligations you would save billions.
I had lots of kiwi friends…. until I noticed they were all cheering on England in the 2003 WC final. I asked for some Anzac spirit. They said; nah, we hate Aussies more than we hate the English.
Since then I always support any team playing NZ.
Late Riser:
Tuesday, June 28, 2022 at 7:30 pm
[‘Thanks Mavis. This makes perfect sense.
“…the grammatical and ordinary sense of the words is to be adhered to, unless that would lead to some absurdity, or some repugnance or inconsistency with the rest of the instrument, in which case the grammatical and ordinary sense of the words may be modified, so as to avoid that absurdity and inconsistency, but no farther.”
[‘How is this rule upheld in our (Australia’s) practice of law? Is it by convention or something more than that? IOW, are we prey to the same shit?’]
A party to a proceeding where a court has allegedly transgressed the “Golden Rule” of statutory construction would have grounds to appeal, and if successful, costs would follow. As an aside, although there have been instances where members of our highest court have been at loggerheads (eg, when Lionel Murphy was appointed to the High Court), unlike the US Supreme Court, Australian judges are a pretty homogenous lot, none of the visceral hatred one often sees in the US, nor forced to go through an often highly politicised nomination process. I believe we’re very well-served by our judiciary though some would no doubt say the Pell’s appeal outcome was controversial.
Cronus says:
Tuesday, June 28, 2022 at 6:50 pm
….I can imagine the challenges facing churches in Australia are potentially existential.
Let’s hope so. The clergy have had their turn. It really is time for the various reactionary sects to stop playing dress-ups and make-believe.
If anyone is interested in Dreyfus interview:
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/lawreport/attorney-general-mark-dreyfus/13949800
@8:30 Bernard Collaery — “All governments need to protect secrecies.”
@14:00 raids on journalists, incl on the ABC
@15:00 FOI, needs a change of attitude
@19:00 Human Rights Commission, mortified
@21:00 High Court judge replacement (and other courts & tribunals) — “I am going to be fully reviewing administrative appeals tribunal so it is fit for purpose” — He became excited by this topic.
@27:00 Senate advisors being cut — He’s looking forward to working with the Senate.
I wouldn’t be surprised if it was cheaper to just give every unemployed person a job payed by the government, and honestly would probably be a saving on the health system too via mental health services.
Thanks Mavis.
Late Riser
[‘IOW, are we prey to the same shit?’]
Compared to the US Constitution ours is pretty bland, as, unlike the US, we didn’t have to go to war to come of age. Of course, there was that blot exacted by Kerr, Fraser, Barwick, and Mason in ’75. But there are only four rights guaranteed in our Constitution whereas the US has a number, one of which is the right to bear arms, and where the SCOTUS still thinks the British are coming. It’s also of interest to note that the High Court overturned the doctrine of terra nullius, derived from the common law, and the implied right to political communication. In a nutshell, it’s safe to say we’ll never ape the shenanigans of the US Supreme Court.
Jan 6 at 8.34
I had lots of kiwi friends…. until I noticed they were all cheering on England in the 2003 WC final. I asked for some Anzac spirit. They said; nah, we hate Aussies more than we hate the English.
Since then I always support any team playing NZ.
____________
A friend bought a t-shirt emblazoned with: ‘I support 2 teams: Australia and whoever’s playing New Zealand!’
Actually, I make an exception for the Rugby World Cup: I support southern hemisphere teams and the French. I was behind the French more than NZ in 2011. Complicated business…
“By the sound of it, every crossbench MP needs a High Court judge on staff, at the very least.”
You’d probably want your advisor to be a little more practical and in touch with commercial reality., but I guess if you have a high court judge or two in the family, they aren’t going to get everything wrong all the time.
Jan 6 at 8:34 pm
Gawd you’d love this song 😆
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dr3laDc1SeM
Jaeger at 8:23 pm
Your highly tune ‘astro antennae’ must have kicked in 🙂
Nicko at 8.40
This story…
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/24/jobactive-workers-speak-out-how-the-hell-did-i-end-up-doing-this-to-these-people
…suggests 400,000 are obliged to be part of Jobactive.
This site…
https://unemployedworkersunion.com/dont-fooled-analysis-jobactive/
…suggests the network costs $8bn+ a year. So $20,000 per person per year, crudely put.
Perhaps we should invade
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9y-yT7o6y6k&ab_channel=ripstickcamp
Gas bill arrived today.
4.5 times the previous one. Will send it off to Coker in the morning.
@Snappy Tom
This site…
https://unemployedworkersunion.com/dont-fooled-analysis-jobactive/
…suggests the network costs $8bn+ a year. So $20,000 per person per year, crudely put.
_______________
Also given the benefits to job seekers are about $15K it puts it into perspective, especially with the indue running at $10k
Taylormade @ #730 Tuesday, June 28th, 2022 – 9:18 pm
Because you’re an idiot partisan with blinkers on about price gouging by energy companies, it seems.
Also, you could try using less energy. Or maybe, um, installing renewables like solar on your rooftop. Like other sensible people have done. Even Liberal-voting ones.
Snappy Tom
Thanks for this insightful post. I have the most enormous amount of admiration for those who continue to preach the social gospel in these weird times. I would like to give a shout-out to my “local”, Waterloo Uniting Church, which works tirelessly on behalf of our local community.
Late Riser @ #721 Tuesday, June 28th, 2022 – 8:40 pm
Thanks for this, Late Riser. I’ll tune in tomorrow, when I’m more compos mentis. 🙂
Snappy Tom
Thanks, I appreciate the considered response. My friends and I left the UC around 1980 considering it to be too liberal (as young folk are wont to do) skipping around to various denominations including the Baptists, Pentecostals and Wesleyan Methodists seeking the perfect church. Surprisingly we didn’t find it (chuckles). In hindsight, and with life experience, I think we should’ve stuck with the UC. Anywho, life.
‘Brexit: More Britons now say UK was wrong to quit the EU .. Polls show average annual gap between those who believe it was ‘wrong’ to vote to Leave compared to ‘right’ has risen to double digits* for the first time’
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-britons-uk-eu-wrong-leave-polls-analysis-b1008770.html
*Figure is Wrong 49%, Right 38%, Don’t Know 13%
Taylormade @ #730 Tuesday, June 28th, 2022 – 9:18 pm
“Gas bill arrived today.
4.5 times the previous one. Will send it off to Coker in the morning.”
It warms my heart to think of Liberal party apparatchiks paying high energy bills like all the innocent victims of Liberal policy. Perhaps they should send the bill to Angus Taylor and demand a refund (and an explanation)?
We never believed a word Angus said and replaced all the gas in our home last year. Now it runs on solar (44 PV panels) plus battery. Last winter we only needed 4% of our net power from the grid and exported a lot more than that for a refund 🙂
Mavis. I turned away for a bit and missed your reply. Belated thanks for your reassurances. (And now for a short nap so I can enjoy the J6C performance in a few hours!)
Already thought Hollie Hughes was a nasty piece of work. This Four Corners is just confirming it.
The big tobacco companies would in my perfect world have been shut down decades ago, their assets stripped, and their executives whipped in the public square, but given they still exist nobody with any ethics that should have anything to do with them.
If the tobacco companies wanted to be about public health they could stop selling cigarettes tomorrow. It was public health that caused them to fight plain packaging, eh?
Hughes is ridiculous.
I would hope the ALP will crack down and shut the gate left open thanks to the tobacco company owned shills in the Coalition against the attempts of people like Greg Hunt.
Religion is a funny thing. It seems to serve multiple purposes.
* Some find in it an explanation for the profoundest mysteries, like “why does the Universe bother to exist?”
* Some find it comforting. There’s a reason for everything. Death isn’t the end. God will ensure that everyone gets what they deserve.
* Some see it as a means of social control. God is watching you even when the boss / police / lord of the manor isn’t. Those who believe this often don’t believe it applies to themselves.
* For some, maybe it relieves them of the need t9 think too hard. Just follow these rules, perform these actions and you’ll be right.
* Some religionists of the patriarchal variety seem to be obsessed by sex and reproduction. This type of religion seems to be a means to enforce patriarchal control of the community. Maybe it’s a response to evolutionary imperatives.
* Some believe that God / the Universe / whatever wants all people / all creatures to thrive and that its their job to make it happen. I have a lot of time for them.
* It’s a cultural thing, part of the family / tribal / national heritage. It provides rituals for big occasions, happy and sad.
* … probably lots of others.
#weatheronPB
Dark thin clouds glow, a little.
Steady traffic noises comfort, a little.
Still and dark, but not for long.
https://january6th.house.gov/legislation/hearings
Well, that was the shortest of the J6C Episodes so far, short but revealing. It neatly stiches together the actions of people close to Trump in the days from early December to a day or so after January 6. The witness (Ms Hutchison) is credible, articulate, and her testimony is comprehensive. She describes how the White House works, both public and “Off The Record” processes, and how different roles combine. She names and positions the players. She gives us their moods and motives, and exposes their idiosyncrasies, to some extent even Trump’s. What it doesn’t do is answer the question, “Why was this testimony so urgent?”
The following did not come off well.
* Roger Stone
* Mark Meadows
* Michael Flynn
If you don’t have the time to watch the whole thing but are interested in some of the details, the NYT has a blow by blow “live blog” of today’s J6C.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/06/28/us/jan-6-hearing-today?unlocked_article_code=AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACEIPuomT1JKd6J17Vw1cRCfTTMQmqxCdw_PIxfs4h2Hza3LNE2wFl7pSWdjH5lyKZ6NlIoV23zmSXt5HP_ozQ_B736UXGX1RfDSSg8nOnoUZcWJyrY-8V2gn1JXJWb0z7T7taC63cr8lmLfhtVePbTXgRKDdhSI-dFs2qY9ufVGoiiNfxv-VR-dly5Ipi6dac5N5QDkGZSKBufb6WV4paJjdMEaqukRhUPpZWDrTgdeY97kKFQ1ZAl_BR3l_in0uvJIeYJhEefaicGNzPZb2kr4TCWd3LYm2BJxXR4jckrlis7WlugVQCpLa9JWwLwqcptt0NSpf&smid=url-share
around the world…
NATO will formally invite Finland and Sweden to join the alliance on Wednesday after Turkey lifted its veto on their membership, the secretary-general said Tuesday evening.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/06/28/world/russia-ukraine-war-news
(paywalled)
And this mysterious Tony Ornato whose career with the Secret Service must surely now be under a cloud.
“And this mysterious Tony Ornato whose career with the Secret Service must surely now be under a cloud.”
Yeah. I couldn’t follow the testimony about him. (Sleep deprived?) The whole J6C effort fits what I’ve read about how you take down “the mob”. It takes a lot of work by a lot of people, slowly building up from the bottom, finding people who are willing to talk, using that to pressure others until they talk, and so on. That this unravels the POTUS, is difficult to grasp. (I might need a nap soon. 🙂 )
Late Riser @ #742 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 5:33 am
Putin is winning bigly. Russians must be getting tired of all this winning. MRGA
Late Riser:
The man needs to be brought before the committee. There is, after all, precedent:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2022/06/28/trump-secret-service-clinton/
Ray (UK) says:
Tuesday, June 28, 2022 at 10:39 pm
‘Brexit: More Britons now say UK was wrong to quit the EU .. Polls show average annual gap between those who believe it was ‘wrong’ to vote to Leave compared to ‘right’ has risen to double digits* for the first time’
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-britons-uk-eu-wrong-leave-polls-analysis-b1008770.html
“*Figure is Wrong 49%, Right 38%, Don’t Know 13%”
It’s sounding like a case of buyer’s regret on a national level from which I assume there is little chance of return.
Thanks for the links, Late Riser. I’ve been following Seth Abrahamson on twitter these last few hours and am not surprised to read Dan Rather describing this as so much worse than Watergate.
Jan 6 says:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 6:27 am
Late Riser @ #742 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 5:33 am
around the world…
“NATO will formally invite Finland and Sweden to join the alliance on Wednesday after Turkey lifted its veto on their membership, the secretary-general said Tuesday evening.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/06/28/world/russia-ukraine-war-news
(paywalled)
Putin is winning bigly. Russians must be getting tired of all this winning. MRGA”
A perfect example of unintended consequences for Putin. He deserves no less.
Maxwell sentenced to 20 years in jail
Ghislaine Maxwell has been sentenced to 20 years in prison for helping the sex offender and globetrotting financier Jeffrey Epstein sexually abuse teenage girls.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/maxwell-sentenced-to-20-years-in-jail/ar-AAYXGXA?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=04f3d463727e4fd2a48bdc7cd402c9f8