Joshing around (open thread)

Josh Frydenberg and his well-wishers start plans for his comeback; strong support for political truth-in-advertising laws; research on social media advertising expenditure; and new election result analysis toys.

Still nothing from Newspoll; the fortnightly Essential Research should be along this week, but may not tell us anything too exciting if it’s still holding off on resuming voting intention; and who knows what Roy Morgan might do.

Recent news items relevant to the federal sphere and within the ambit of this site:

• John Ferguson of The Australian reports on Liberal plans to get Josh Frydenberg back into federal parliament, which one party source rates as “only a matter of how and when”. However, finding a vehicle for his return is a problem with no obvious solution. While some are reportedly urging him to win back Kooyong, another Liberal is quoted saying an infestation of sandals and tofu in Hawthorn means the seat is now forever lost. Another idea is for him to win Higgins back from Labor, supposedly an easier task since Labor will receive weaker preference flows than an independent. There is also the difficulty that the local party is dominated by a moderate faction of which Frydenberg does not form part, despite efforts to cultivate an impression to the contrary as he struggled to fight off Monique Ryan. Suggestions he might try his hand on the metropolitan fringes at La Trobe and Monash are running into concerns that he might go the way of Kristina Keneally. Yet another source says he might sit out two terms, the idea being that conditions are likely to remain unfavourable for the party in 2025.

• The Australia Institute has published results from a poll of 1424 respondents conducted by Dynata from the day of the election on May 21 through to 25 which found 86% agreed that truth in political advertising laws should be in place by the time of the next election, with little demographic or partisan variation. Sixty-five per cent said they had been exposed to advertising they knew to be misleading at least once a week during the campaign.

• A further study by the Australia Institute found that Labor led the field on social media advertising with expenditure of more than $5 million, after its 2019 post-election review found its social media strategy had been lacking. The Coalition collectively spent around $3.5 million and the United Australia Party $1.7 million.

Election analysis tools:

• Jim Reed of Resolve Strategic has developed a three-pronged “pendulum” to deal with the limitations of the traditional Mackerras model, which entirely assumes two-party competition. Labor, the Coalition and “others” each get a two-sided prong, with margins against the other two recorded on opposite sides.

• David Barry again provides Senate preference calculators that work off the ballot paper data to allow you to observe how each parties’ preferences divided among the various other parties, which you can narrow down according to taste. The deluxe model involves a downloadable app that you can then populate with data files, but there is now a no-frills online version that is limited to above-the-line votes.

• Andrew Conway has a site that allows you to do all sorts of things with the Senate results once you have climbed its learning curve, such as conduct a double dissolution-style count in which twelve (or any other number you care to nominate) rather than six candidates are elected in each state (on a relevant state page, click the “recount” link, enter 12 in the vacancies box towards the bottom, and click “recount”. Its tools can be used not only on each Senate election going back to 2013, but also on New South Wales local government elections at which councillors were elected under the Senate-style single transferable vote system last December.

• Mitch Gooding offers a tool that allows you to replicate how you filled out your Senate paper and calculates exactly how your vote was chopped up and distributed through various exclusions in the count and which candidates it helped elect, if any.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,112 comments on “Joshing around (open thread)”

Comments Page 1 of 23
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  1. You have to be careful to count the number of candidates for major parties and adjust the results (if needed) when counting for more than 6 positions on Conway`s calculator.

  2. It’s getting worse.

    The state’s most senior public servant was contacted in January by the woman who was overlooked for US trade commissioner before John Barilaro was appointed to the role this month.

    Department of Premier and Cabinet secretary Michael Coutts-Trotter received an email from former Investment NSW deputy secretary Jenny West after her expected appointment to the job was scuppered.

    The Herald can reveal West requested a meeting and expressed serious concerns in a report numbering some 45 pages about how she had been treated. Her email was subsequently referred to Investment NSW.

    The bureaucrat was the preferred candidate and had been preparing to take up the plum New York role before it was readvertised in December.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/top-public-servant-contacted-by-woman-who-missed-out-on-us-trade-role-20220626-p5awno.html

  3. I thought Josh was the King of the Moderates!?!

    There is also the difficulty that the local party is dominated by a moderate faction of which Frydenberg does not form part, despite efforts to cultivate an impression to the contrary as he struggled to fight off Monique Ryan.

    That was some carefully cultivated image!

  4. ‘fess,
    It kind of looks like Michael Coutts-Trotter is compromised, doesn’t it?

    It also looks like Jenny West is leading the media charge from the sidelines.

  5. The right-wing court wants to lock 21st-century America into the Founders’ world or, at the latest, the late 19th century, conveniently skipping past the parts of history that disfavor its cramped view of individual rights. Women, minorities, gay people and others once had little political, economic or social power. And so they will again, if the court gets its way.

    Look carefully at the court’s language hopscotching through history. “Until the latter part of the 20th century, such a right [to abortion] was entirely unknown in American law,” the opinion proclaims. The past 50 years when Roe v. Wade followed a line of previous cases concerning personal autonomy (“privacy”) don’t count, it seems.

    The court also leaps past the part of American history when abortion was generally legal up to “quickening.” (Oops, the majority gave it away: “We begin with the common law, under which abortion was a crime at least after ‘quickening’ — i.e., the first felt movement of the fetus in the womb, which usually occurs between the 16th and 18th week of pregnancy.” After quickening, even in the majority’s telling.)

    Why bother with all this selective, fatuous historical argument? This is where it gets scary and goes well beyond abortion. The court insists that our rights under the 14th Amendment were fixed in 1868. We therefore get a perverse result, as the dissent explains:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/06/26/supreme-court-attack-midterms/

    You’d like to think that this will spur women across the country to get out and vote Democrat in November, but sadly I can’t see it happening. People are just apathetic.

  7. ‘fess,
    As I said yesterday, the SCOTUS has gifted the Democrats a Get Out of Jail Free card for the Mid Terms.

  10. You know who’s not apathetic? The LGBTQI+ community. The Log Cabin Republicans are already being shut out of the party and I can’t see them sticking around to put up with the antediluvian crap coming out of the Repugs. And the rest of that community will get out the vote as if their life depended on it, which it will.

    I don’t think Americans will be apathetic at all. Not by November when it won’t be hot any more.

  11. Tweet

    @MikeCarlton01
    “Not an original thought, this, by any means, but: You can’t ban abortions. Only safe ones.”

    8:46 AM · Jun 25, 2022·

  12. C@t:

    Congress should now legislate to protect the rights of women that the court has thrown away, including all those that are now at risk – SSM, gay rights, contraception etc.

  15. Confessions @ #12 Monday, June 27th, 2022 – 6:24 am

    C@t:

    Congress should now legislate to protect the rights of women that the court has thrown away, including all those that are now at risk – SSM, gay rights, contraception etc.

    Might be hard getting it through the Senate, what with all those Repugs afraid of their base, Rupert Murdoch/Fox News and Donald Trump, the Godfather of American Politics.

  18. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Ross Gittins explains why fears of 1970s-style stagflation are indeed misplaced.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/boomer-fantasy-why-fears-of-1970s-style-stagflation-are-indeed-misplaced-20220626-p5awm8.html.
    This is a good article from Sean Kelly in which he compares the attitudes of big to the current wages issue and when the emissions trading scheme was being developed ten years ago
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/has-business-learnt-its-lesson-from-climate-wars-20220626-p5awmy.html
    Profits push up prices too, so why is the RBA governor only talking about wages, asks Jim Stanford.
    https://theconversation.com/profits-push-up-prices-too-so-why-is-the-rba-governor-only-talking-about-wages-185688
    Members of the former government and their right-wing media cheer squad trying to make political capital out of the rate at which the new Prime Minster is clocking up frequent flyer points are ignoring the national interest, declares the editorial in the Canberra Times that points out the PM’s European trip is vital to Australia’s security. (For example have a look at Leak’s effort below).
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7795498/albaneses-european-trip-vital-to-our-security/?cs=27763
    Peter Dutton has warned the New South Wales Liberal party it is “completely unacceptable” to preselect candidates on the eve of an election, reports Paul Karp.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/26/peter-dutton-says-nsw-liberal-party-preselection-delays-were-completely-unacceptable
    Foreign policy experts say Anthony Albanese’s visit to Paris this week is as much about repairing one of Australia’s oldest partnerships as reviving one of its newest, a powerful asset for competition with China, writes James Robertson.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2022/06/26/france-macron-security-albanese-morrison/
    As the Australian prime minister heads for the Nato summit in Madrid on 29-30 June, there is churn in the global strategic situation. The Albanese government has thus far taken strongly supportive positions towards US policy in both Asia and Ukraine. We are supporting flawed postures, argues Dennis Argall.
    https://johnmenadue.com/dennis-argall-points-for-an-australian-strategic-policy/
    According to Troy Bramston, Anthony Albanese is set to go ahead with the Voice referendum even if the Coalition refuses to back the indigenous body.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/anthony-albanese-to-go-ahead-with-voice-referendum-even-if-coalition-refuses-to-back-indigenous-body/news-story/ca9864bb1b97bd5ab9cfe36579d163e6
    The Liberal Party’s disastrous financial and political decline in Western Australia is just the most extreme example of its state-by-state fall from political grace, writes Jennifer Hewett.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/liberals-look-for-love-in-all-the-wrong-places-20220625-p5awkp
    The new Parliament should take responsibility for dealing with pork barrelling – not pass the buck to an integrity commission, writes John Austen.
    https://johnmenadue.com/restoring-integrity-to-commonwealth-infrastructure-spending/
    A crackdown by the Australian Taxation Office on rorts involving family trusts has drawn alarm from some advisers as some of the practices under the microscope have become common practice, writes Ben Butler.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/26/australian-taxation-office-crackdown-on-family-trust-rorts-causes-alarm-among-tax-advisers
    Nobody could be more enthusiastic about the release of the latest census data than newly minted Assistant Treasurer Andrew Leigh, writes Rachel Clun.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/stats-nerd-leigh-in-dream-job-on-the-eve-of-census-20220620-p5av1v.html
    The national conversation we need to have is of the grimmest reality — suicide is the leading cause of death in Australia’s teenagers and bullying plays a large part, writes Gerry Georgatos.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/too-often-stigma-based-bullying-ends-in-suicide,16492
    Law professor, Rosiland Dixon, tells us that the US abortion case shows we cannot take reproductive rights for granted.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/us-abortion-case-shows-we-cannot-take-reproductive-rights-for-granted-20220626-p5awo2.html
    Decriminalising abortion was one of the most important decisions in the history of NSW, and it must be safeguarded forever, writes Andrew Constance.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/abortion-should-never-again-be-criminalised-in-nsw-20220626-p5awnz.html
    Meanwhile, experts say that accessing abortion is still a postcode lottery for women across regional Australia, despite all jurisdictions decriminalising the procedure in recent years.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/abortion-access-in-parts-of-australia-remains-very-dire-experts-say-20220626-p5awp3.html
    The SMH editorial says that the American abortion decision deepens cultural divide between US and Australia. It also refers to the recent hearings on the insurrection in Congress point to a country so riven by partisan hatred that it cannot even agree on the most fundamental processes of democracy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/abortion-decision-deepens-cultural-divide-between-us-and-australia-20220626-p5awpe.html
    Leading Democrats on Sunday continued calling the supreme court’s legitimacy into question after it took away the nationwide right to abortion last week, and some again called for appointing additional justices to the panel so as to blunt the conservative super-majority which made the controversial ruling possible.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jun/26/elizabeth-warren-democrats-question-supreme-court-legitimacy
    With the end of Roe, the US edges closer and closer to civil war, writes a concerned Stephen Marche who says. “The cracks in the foundations of the United States are widening, rapidly and on several fronts. The overturning of Roe v Wade has provoked a legitimacy crisis no matter what your politics.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/26/second-civil-war-us-abortion

    Cartoon Corner

    Peter Broelman

    Cathy Wilcox

    Mark Knight

    Leak

    From the US


  24. Will frydenberg come back his no costellow and there was talk foor years that he would find a seat in victoria frydenberg must have some influcence because hisgot rid of obrian as leader and installed mathew guy frydenberg only was discribed as moderit when his seat came under threat

  25. I don’t get the ‘Bring Back Josh’ mania. His electorate, one of the formerly most safe Liberal seats in Australia, dumped him. Why can’t the Liberal Party take the obvious message from that?

  26. liberals saying Frydenberg is there best hope and if leaderwill be pm foor a decade albanese was under estermated and has proved to be a better leader so far then many expected tremember turnbull would be our most succesful pm and would d liberals made big deal at how cootstroter was compremised when labor education department head but kept him onistroy labor

  27. #weatheronPB
    I hear Monday’s grey roar.
    Cold leaves sway under thin hatched clouds.
    Hesitant sunlight seeks me out.

  28. ‘Confessions says:
    Monday, June 27, 2022 at 5:58 am

    It’s getting worse.
    ….’
    ———————
    Riper and riper.

  29. Frydenberg was a bad treasurer gave money to cumpanies through job keeper that did not needi it harveynorman however liberals seem to beleave that if there leaders are rejectedthe voters just made a mistake after years of attacking morrison and liberals new corps Semantha maiden was shockt that the publick listondvoted out liberals expected them to get an increased majority with anti dan if she thought liberals so good whiy did she attack morrison said voters did not realizein Cooyong they were voting against frydenberg not morison and suprised about liberals not picking up mckewean

  30. gave mathew guy anoter go desbite leading liberals to there worst ever state defeat but that was turnbull back lash and shocked that his making no impact a second time desbite anti dan hype gave Mirabella a go in 2016 desbite loosing her seat in a masive swing and gave former qld leader about 3 goes before giving up now his lnp president

  31. I don’t get the ‘Bring Back Josh’ mania. His electorate, one of the formerly most safe Liberal seats in Australia, dumped him. Why can’t the Liberal Party take the obvious message from that?

  32. whenofarel came to power made a big deal abbout how Cootstrotter was compremised in education due to conviction and being maried to plibersek and should be sacked but kept him and peretett made him his department head desbite a poor record leading ddepartments for both sides as education head over saw blow outs in schools then in prizons privatised causingmor ishues

  33. I wonder if newscorp/ Murdochcracy has an end of year award for contributer who most reflects RMs anti progressive autocratic opinions, at the moment this Johannes ( Bjelke) Leak would have to get the trophy and lucrative bonus for his very heavy handed satire.

  35. Steely’s dismissal of the lost heartland seats ignores a crucial fact – the nature of these seats haven’t changed. They are still some of the richest, most well educated in the country, as they basically always have been.

    They went Teal because the Liberals had changed, not because they had.

    If you look at the core values of someone such as Steggall – the most obvious example – they fit far better with traditional Liberals than modern Labor. A few tweaks and the Liberals could be competitive in such seats again.

    Menzies introduced a quota for women within the Liberal party. The Liberal party had the best record on women in Parliament for decades as a result. So supporting women candidates is in no way in conflict with the party’s traditional values.

    Conservatives are supposed to accept evidence and act on it, albeit taking the cautious approach. Climate change should be a no brainer for them, just as it is for conservative parties overseas.

    Honouring conventions was also always key for conservatives – upholding the rule of law, honouring the Westminster conventions, using (again) evidence when it came to spending public money, etc etc.

    Again, it’s the Liberals who have moved away from their values, not the heartland seats.

    All the evidence available says that the kind of voter Steely says the Liberals are now chasing are not natural Liberals. If you’re struggling to pay your bills, the quality of government services becomes more important to you – cost of childcare, health, education – and the party of small government is not going to help here.

    And there is no suggestion in any analysis (outside of Sky news) that there’s enough Freedom types out there to make the Liberals shift to the right tenable.

    Personally speaking, if I were a strategist for any party, I’d be very very worried about losing seats where people had a lot of money to throw around, because I’d like some of that money to come the way of my party. (Steely’s people who are struggling to pay their rego do not have the time or money for political involvement; demonstrably, those in Teals seats did).

  36. So constance is not going away now that he lost gilmore he can be a moderit prodict hill run again said he wanted to move away from politics if he lost and said politics is brocken and to much infighting desbiteb being a corear politician him self and writting opinion peasis atacking his liberal rivals

  37. After Frydenberg was rejected in one of the liberals safist seats why would they bring him back maybi they by Sam maidens argument that the voters thought they were voting against morrison and were so disingaged did not realize frydenberg treasurer was there mp most people do ot care abbout politics but strange maiden in news.com campaigned heavily on morrisons failures treetement of woman porter yet after elefction was shocked when liberals did not get increased majority such as picking up mckewean due to dictator dan news also said that guy only lost in 2018 due to turnbull backlash so frydenberg got rid of obryian and gave guy another go then surprized whe publick do not warm to Guy

  38. Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. Some quite thoughtful articles this morning.

    Cat
    “I thought Josh was the King of the Moderates!?!”

    Yes never mind truth in political advertising. What about truth in political reporting? I’m sure I saw Josh described as a “moderate” earlier this year. In reality Josh is hard right.

    That being said, I agree that laws on truth in political advertising should be passed. Labor will benefit far more from them than they will lose. It isn’t just Labor vs Liberal. Consider Clive Palmer’s spending and tactics.

  39. ”If you look at the core values of someone such as Steggall – the most obvious example – they fit far better with traditional Liberals than modern Labor. A few tweaks and the Liberals could be competitive in such seats again.”

    I am only talking in generalisations here, of course, but it used to be considered a truism that women’s votes helped keep Menzies and his immediate Liberal successors in power. Women generally skewed more conservative than men at election time until relatively recently.

    Many women held traditional conservative values. They were more likely to be religiously devout. Many of those from working class backgrounds aspired to what might be called “middle class respectability”, which was the Menzies Liberals’ main shtick. Many also had a distaste for unions, especially union militancy. They loved the Queen. They were anxious regarding anything that might whiff of communism or left-radicalism.

    On the other hand, the sort of right-wing nut-jobbery which is gaining an increasing grip on the Liberals and Nationals is more of a male thing.

  43. Thanks BK for your roundup.

    As noted, this is worth reading on the angry/sad situation in the US.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/26/second-civil-war-us-abortion

    Salient bits

    [The left] has not made the psychological adjustment to a conflict situation yet. But it won’t be able to maintain the fantasy of normalcy for much longer.

    [As an extreme example Russia has] devolved into a conservative authoritarianism with no other outlet than violence

    [The call for violence, by the right] is stochastic terrorism

    The battle has been joined, and it will be fought everywhere.

    Repeating what I said yesterday: The SCOTUS unmasked the right. The mid terms will be ugly. (And guns have nothing to do with being safe. They have everything to do with ultimate power. Open carry is a bully’s swagger.)

  44. ” And add to that that Menzies genuinely recognised and valued their contribution to the Liberal party.”

    Naturally, as any clever or even moderately competent political leader would.

  46. On the US Court, the more I read about the Roe vs Wade Dismissal decision, the more I realise the US SC has been stacked with political hacks who are not even very good judges.

    Someone told me years ago a good judge could find a sound legal reason to justify any opinion. The SCOTUS has resorted to (selective) “history”. That isn’t a legal argument.

    To illustrate the problem, if you say history justifies legal rulings, the SCOTUS should ban viagra. Why? History. There was no “right” to use viagra prior to the 1990s. Of course you might say viagra didn’t exist then, but neither did modern abortion or contraception.

    I can’t defend the Democrats for failing to legislate abortion as in other countries. They want to milk the outrage and leave it to the courts to avoid having the argument in Congress. I think this once again highlights the weakness of the current (old) generation of Democrat leaders and it will cost them dearly.

  47. Today show just now crossed to the “climate activists” rampaging thru Sydney vandalising private and public property. What a pack of fuck wits, just as bad as the hard right. Manor from heaven for said hard right.

  48. I am pretty sure they don’t care how bad the judges are, or how bad the arguments are.
    In Culture Wars all that is code for something else… regarded as being the ‘real’ truth.

  49. The West Australian reports that Dutton is back in Perth for second time in as many weeks.
    He is said to be keen on a plan being promoted by Gina Rhinehart to double the amount aged pensioners can work before their pension is reduced.
    This is seen as way of overcoming skills shortages.
    And no doubt Rhinehart will be pushing for a special lower rate of pay for pensioners thus employed.

  50. I can’t defend the Democrats for failing to legislate abortion

    The fear of something (or goal) is a useful tool when herding sheep. It may not have been a specific conscious choice, but it served, it added weight. Once the fear (or goal) is realised though, the tactics change for both sides. The mid terms will be ugly.

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