Still nothing from Newspoll; the fortnightly Essential Research should be along this week, but may not tell us anything too exciting if it’s still holding off on resuming voting intention; and who knows what Roy Morgan might do.
Recent news items relevant to the federal sphere and within the ambit of this site:
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports on Liberal plans to get Josh Frydenberg back into federal parliament, which one party source rates as “only a matter of how and when”. However, finding a vehicle for his return is a problem with no obvious solution. While some are reportedly urging him to win back Kooyong, another Liberal is quoted saying an infestation of sandals and tofu in Hawthorn means the seat is now forever lost. Another idea is for him to win Higgins back from Labor, supposedly an easier task since Labor will receive weaker preference flows than an independent. There is also the difficulty that the local party is dominated by a moderate faction of which Frydenberg does not form part, despite efforts to cultivate an impression to the contrary as he struggled to fight off Monique Ryan. Suggestions he might try his hand on the metropolitan fringes at La Trobe and Monash are running into concerns that he might go the way of Kristina Keneally. Yet another source says he might sit out two terms, the idea being that conditions are likely to remain unfavourable for the party in 2025.
• The Australia Institute has published results from a poll of 1424 respondents conducted by Dynata from the day of the election on May 21 through to 25 which found 86% agreed that truth in political advertising laws should be in place by the time of the next election, with little demographic or partisan variation. Sixty-five per cent said they had been exposed to advertising they knew to be misleading at least once a week during the campaign.
• A further study by the Australia Institute found that Labor led the field on social media advertising with expenditure of more than $5 million, after its 2019 post-election review found its social media strategy had been lacking. The Coalition collectively spent around $3.5 million and the United Australia Party $1.7 million.
Election analysis tools:
• Jim Reed of Resolve Strategic has developed a three-pronged “pendulum” to deal with the limitations of the traditional Mackerras model, which entirely assumes two-party competition. Labor, the Coalition and “others” each get a two-sided prong, with margins against the other two recorded on opposite sides.
• David Barry again provides Senate preference calculators that work off the ballot paper data to allow you to observe how each parties’ preferences divided among the various other parties, which you can narrow down according to taste. The deluxe model involves a downloadable app that you can then populate with data files, but there is now a no-frills online version that is limited to above-the-line votes.
• Andrew Conway has a site that allows you to do all sorts of things with the Senate results once you have climbed its learning curve, such as conduct a double dissolution-style count in which twelve (or any other number you care to nominate) rather than six candidates are elected in each state (on a relevant state page, click the “recount” link, enter 12 in the vacancies box towards the bottom, and click “recount”. Its tools can be used not only on each Senate election going back to 2013, but also on New South Wales local government elections at which councillors were elected under the Senate-style single transferable vote system last December.
• Mitch Gooding offers a tool that allows you to replicate how you filled out your Senate paper and calculates exactly how your vote was chopped up and distributed through various exclusions in the count and which candidates it helped elect, if any.
Terminator @ #47 Monday, June 27th, 2022 – 9:08 am
Not too bad for Labor either. Gives them every reason not to bow to the whims of their political avatars.
Rossmcg @ #49 Monday, June 27th, 2022 – 9:11 am
You see, in the end they won’t be able to qualify for an Aged Pension, UNLESS they work. That’s if the Liberals get back into power. They have always been the party of Work Till You Drop.
It would be wise to read the fine print of the proposal. Especially the proposed taper rates of the Pension.
Josh frydenberg was the incumbent in Kooyong for years. If he couldnt hold that seat, what makes these fools think he can win elsewhere in Melbourne town.
Dutton is one person who won’t be happy with the move to find a seat for Frydenberg.
Dutton knows that he is far less popular with the electorate than Frydenberg and is currently LOTO only because Frydenberg cannot currently challenge him. Should Frydenberg make it back into Parliament, Dutton would be gone.
How would that have made any difference? Trump’s court can strike down Federal legislation at least as easily as it can strike down it’s own precedent.
The Constitution puts pretty strict limits on what sort of laws the Feds can pass. More than enough scope for a conservative court to strike down any sweeping abortion legislation.
What you really want is a constitutional amendment. That at least would probably survive. If it ever got up to start with.
UK Cartoons:
A few cartoons from The Cartoon Movement on Roe:
The Underground Railroad
In the era of slavery in America, escaped slaves would desperately try to make their way to non-slavery northern states or to Canada by way of “safe houses”… this informal network was called the “Underground Railroad.” Now, with abortion on the verge of being made illegal in many states, desperate pregnant women may similarly try to make their way to “safe states” where they could terminate an unwanted pregnancy.
There are more that are a bit more graphic – you can view them here:
https://cartoonmovement.com/collection/right-to-abortion
The scotus decisions last week have awoken the populace who may not have bothered to vote at the midterms.
As already stated, i see the dems holding both the house and the senate.
It will shock the rethugs who actually believe they will at least win back the house in November.
Vic,
They seem to be thinking that the Red Walls in Victoria and NSW will fall to them. However, the Liberals tried to break it down this election and the only Liberal who won one of those seats was Dai Le, who completely stripped herself of Liberal association and branding. Every other seat held for Labor because, it seems to me, that it was more about stagnant wages and poor services, than culture war totems, led by perfectly sculpted White Women from the posh areas of Sydney.
C@t
Agreed.
I’m sure the Repugs and the Arch Conservative Activist SCOTUS Judges would love it if women could be forced to dress like this again:
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C@tmommasays:
Monday, June 27, 2022 at 6:13 am
I thought Josh was the King of the Moderates!?!
There is also the difficulty that the local party is dominated by a moderate faction of which Frydenberg does not form part, despite efforts to cultivate an impression to the contrary as he struggled to fight off Monique Ryan.
That was some carefully cultivated image
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He is Howard’s Liberal not a Chaney’s Liberal for sure.
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frednksays:
Monday, June 27, 2022 at 6:19 am
Steelydan certainly offers encouraging posts for any Labor partisan.
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The thing is Liberal party is worse than Steely. Barry Cassidy once said on Insiders that Liberal party members are to the right of Liberal party MPs and Senators. I believe the politicians caught up with the members and gone past them.
Assuming talk of a Frydenberg comeback is just Sky News folk interfering with themselves in public again… I have to wonder who would/could replace Peter Dutton after he given enough rope to hang himself as a dud leader with zero voter appeal. Airbus Albo won’t have to be watching his back for awhile if Dutton stays LOTO beyond 2022.
C@t
The republicans are tapping into the fears and anxiety of Americans who believe they are losing their status.
Once upon a time white males ruled the US.
In the workplace, in universities and in the home.
Now women and minorities are impinging on their turf and they dont like it.
Victoria @ #57 Monday, June 27th, 2022 – 9:26 am
+1
I read somewhere yesterday that some in the GOP are upset with the SCOTUS for this exact reason. What can the GOP do but double down? And that’s why I don’t see how it won’t get ugly.
Late Riser
Of course it will get ugly. That is the intent.
The rethugs are counting on violence to help them suppress engagement and the vote.
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Aaron newtonsays:
Monday, June 27, 2022 at 7:46 am
Will frydenberg come back his no costellow and there was talk foor years that he would find a seat in victoria frydenberg must have some influcence because hisgot rid of obrian as leader and installed mathew guy frydenberg only was discribed as moderit when his seat came under threat
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Frydenburg is a coward and a two timing politician
Unlike Howard and Costello he never stood for his convictions. Probably that is the reason Turnbull liked him.
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Aaron newtonsays:
Monday, June 27, 2022 at 7:50 am
liberals saying Frydenberg is there best hope and if leaderwill be pm foor a decade albanese was under estermated and has proved to be a better leader so far then many expected tremember turnbull would be our most succesful pm and would d liberals made big deal at how cootstroter was compremised when labor education department head but kept him onistroy labor
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Aaron Newton
” better leader than expected “.
Tell that to Rex Douglas. He already called Albanese a dictator just 1 month into his PM tenure. As far as I can remember he never called Morrison or Howard a dictator.
The suggestion from the Liberals of parachuting Josh Frydenberg into another safe seat is a little self-indulgent. I also can’t see them winning back Kooyong either even if they poured 2 million into the campaign a figure that’s been reported their considering to spend. Monique Ryan wasn’t forced to choose who to form government with which is exactly the position a first term independent wants to be in. She won’t have to put her constituents offside by being forced to pick a side.
Fairly or unfairly Frydenberg lost a previously safe Liberal seat. Its like Kristina Keneally losing Fowler. Once a pilot crashes a plane they shouldn’t get a second chance.
Alpha Zero
Some of the states criminalising abortion are also legislating to criminalise procuring an abortion in another state.
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Princeplanetsays:
Monday, June 27, 2022 at 8:06 am
I wonder if newscorp/ Murdochcracy has an end of year award for contributer who most reflects RMs anti progressive autocratic opinions, at the moment this Johannes ( Bjelke) Leak would have to get the trophy and lucrative bonus for his very heavy handed satire.
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Murdoch has to look outside his stables. Nobody can beat Phil Coorey for his contribution on “The woman who saved Australia “.
It is on par with the article which stated that Turnbull will be Long serving PM like Menzies and retire from politics as PM at his own choosen time.
I hesitate to post this image but the French media have a knack of approaching these issues (Je Suis et al) and the growing proliferation of coat-hanger images is strong in this offering.
Josh does seem to be near the middle the the part of the political spectrum occupied by the Liberals. That’s still pretty right wing, especially economically.
Steve777 at 10:07 am
Joshy might be a bit moderate in the social sphere but when it comes to flogging ‘the workers’ and looking after corporate matees he’s all aboard.
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zoomstersays:
Monday, June 27, 2022 at 8:21 am
Steely’s dismissal of the lost heartland seats ignores a crucial fact – the nature of these seats haven’t changed. They are still some of the richest, most well educated in the country, as they basically always have been.
……………
………
Personally speaking, if I were a strategist for any party, I’d be very very worried about losing seats where people had a lot of money to throw around, because I’d like some of that money to come the way of my party. (Steely’s people who are struggling to pay their rego do not have the time or money for political involvement; demonstrably, those in Teals seats did).
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Steely fell hook, line and sinker for Republican party propaganda of USA.
He is trying apply their tactics here in Australia.
True, this country is governed/ ruled by LNP for a long time. I understand and not surprised that LNP political class feel entitled to power all the time. But the thing is their Heroes Menzies and Howard always kept traditional Liberal voters onside before they wentefor ALP voters.
That is not the case now.
Victoria says:
Monday, June 27, 2022 at 9:49 am
Late Riser
Of course it will get ugly. That is the intent.
The rethugs are counting on violence to help them suppress engagement and the vote
The Guardian article posed by BK (many thanks BK) regarding the threat of civil war suggests that although the bullets of the repugs will be damaging, the let has economic and technological advantages that the right can only dream of. Won’t be pretty.
Josh’s problem is which seat does he run for in Melbourne There don’t seem to be any safe seats.. assuming a liberal mp was willing to stand down.The outer metro seats such as Monash and La trobe are still marginal and he would risk votes if he stood there…. an outsider
..
.
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Steve777says:
Monday, June 27, 2022 at 8:45 am
”If you look at the core values of someone such as Steggall – the most obvious example – they fit far better with traditional Liberals than modern Labor. A few tweaks and the Liberals could be competitive in such seats again.”
I am only talking in generalisations here, of course, but it used to be considered a truism that women’s votes helped keep Menzies and his immediate Liberal successors in power. Women generally skewed more conservative than men at election time until relatively recently.
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I give an example of Women’s vote. A lot of people on Australian political left and on PB do not like and infact hate Indian PM Modi based on reports of Western media.
But Modi won elections repeatedly first as Premier of most advanced state in India and then Indian federal Parliamentary elections because a large majority of women vote for his party because he is the leader.
But Modi won elections repeatedly first as Premier of most advanced state in India and then Indian federal Parliamentary elections because a large majority of women vote for his because he is the leader.
That sounds like rather circular logic, Ven. 😐
What I don’t understand is that Josh is a pretty appalling campaigner, pretty poor at leadership, hopeless in media interviews etc….Monique Ryan ripped him apart in debates.
I cant see the appeal of him to be recruited as Liberal leader, he has nothing to offer. The trillion dollar debt started sticking to him during the last year, and Labor wont let people forget.
If Frydenberg is the answer, overweening ambition is the question.
Dog’s Brunch, yes. Stephen Marche argues clinically and makes good points. I use nice words like “ugly”, but this is visceral. I think even Trump in his day didn’t produce this kind of response.
Dog’s Brunch @ #76 Monday, June 27th, 2022 – 10:19 am
The Right are trying to install their own social media, like Trump’s Truth Social (Orwell would be proud of that one), but it’s just so lame none of the cool kids want to touch it with a barge pole.
Nevertheless, the Ultra Right will mobilise with the force of their guns instead. Which is why the statistic quoted earlier, that African Americans and Women are buying more guns now, as being reasonable seems to have failed as a tactic, is presaging that these people have realised that they better fight fire with fire, or they will get burnt.
If Josh Frydenburg is the answer, then the Liberal party are all out of solutions.
I read some analysis over weekend (can’t recall where) that seeds for Frydenberg’s demise were sown in 2019 with a badly organised greens and independent attack.
They were better organised this time and a couple of years of Frydenberg as treasurer and critic of all things Victorian just sealed the deal.
I can’t see how he can make a comeback. His ego is badly wounded and he won’t be putting his hand up to stand in a seat he’ll have to work hard to win.
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C@tmommasays:
Monday, June 27, 2022 at 9:16 am
Terminator @ #47 Monday, June 27th, 2022 – 9:08 am
Today show just now crossed to the “climate activists” rampaging thru Sydney vandalising private and public property. What a pack of fuck wits, just as bad as the hard right. Manor from heaven for said hard right.
Not too bad for Labor either. Gives them every reason not to bow to the whims of their political avatars.
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C@tmomma
I really wanted to believe that BW and Briefly are a bit extreme in their repetitive attack of Greens and the Greens posters and enablers. I wanted to believe that Greens party really wanted Climate change action. But with their repeated stupid stunts the Greens and their supporters outside are unfortunately proving BW and Briefly right.
Josh needs to be sent a copy, see if he tales the hint.
Steelydan at 12.21 (previous thread)
To a man not a single Coalition person I know wants them and that is the noise coming out of the Liberal party HQ…
____________
‘To a man’ – because your Liberal friends solved their ‘woman problem’? Also, I hope you and your Liberal buddies continue to disavow your party’s former heartland. Please, keep it up.
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I will not be surprised if that happens. 🙂
My image of Frydenberg is of an entitled chap who once enjoyed the feel of his racket but is now a little confused. Like Porter before him he’ll take some time to recover.
If the answer is Joshy then I think the question is Reichspud.
Ven @ #86 Monday, June 27th, 2022 – 10:38 am
They say they have to in order to get their message across but I don’t think that’s correct.
I cant see the appeal of him to be recruited as Liberal leader, he has nothing to offer. The trillion dollar debt started sticking to him during the last year, and Labor wont let people forget.
“both the Rudd and Gillard governments have displayed their addiction to debt” and that “the messages for Australia are clear: ‘Big government is bad government’ and ‘Live within your means before it is too late.’ ”
Josh Frydenberg
https://www.theguardian.com/business/commentisfree/2021/may/02/we-need-to-end-the-fear-mongering-about-government-debt-in-australia
If Josh is the answer it must be a darn fool question…
Morning bludgers.
How is the Teal Snoutter campaign of our resident Labor phobic stooges progressing this morning>
Late Riser says:
Monday, June 27, 2022 at 8:48 am
Thanks BK for your roundup.
As noted, this is worth reading on the angry/sad situation in the US.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/26/second-civil-war-us-abortion
Salient bits
“[The left] has not made the psychological adjustment to a conflict situation yet. But it won’t be able to maintain the fantasy of normalcy for much longer.
[As an extreme example Russia has] devolved into a conservative authoritarianism with no other outlet than violence
[The call for violence, by the right] is stochastic terrorism
The battle has been joined, and it will be fought everywhere.
Repeating what I said yesterday: The SCOTUS unmasked the right. The mid terms will be ugly. (And guns have nothing to do with being safe. They have everything to do with ultimate power. Open carry is a bully’s swagger.)”
IMO, Australian’s find it difficult to conceive of the possible violent outcomes of the US Supreme Court decision and the possible legal ramifications for the LQBTQI community, gar marriage and parenthood etc.
The reason is because we view the situation through Australian eyes and experience. We don’t have a gun culture, our history has not been born from civil war, we are significantly more homogenous, and our politics, courts and legal system are quite different. Furthermore, Australia’s media, despite being biased, is not nearly as over-hyped as America’s.
The expectations of Australian observers would be that mass protests will be likely followed by some form of backdown by the GOP/Supreme Court. This seems like a normal course of events (in an Australian context) but I think is hopeful but unlikely in the febrile US environment. There is now a cultural battle being joined at a level previously unseen being unleashed upon America by two uncompromising opponents that will not be achieved by compromise.
Meanwhile, the total number of Covid infections in Australia quietly passed eight million over the weekend, maybe 30% of the population when you adjust for those infected more than once. About 1/800 Australians are being infected daily, down from about 1/500 three months ago.
https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-cases/aus
Cronus, +1
Yes it’s going to get violent, specially as one side apparently is lusting for it.
On a brighter note…we’re off to the dentist.
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Andrew_Earlwood leaving Alburysays:
Monday, June 27, 2022 at 10:46 am
Morning bludgers.
How is the Teal Snoutter campaign of our resident Labor phobic stooges progressing this morning>
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Pocock is up early on ABC News breakfast show and complained on how he cannot work without 8 staffers (4 in his electorate and 4 at his office). BTW, what is Pocock’s Electorate?