Joshing around (open thread)

Josh Frydenberg and his well-wishers start plans for his comeback; strong support for political truth-in-advertising laws; research on social media advertising expenditure; and new election result analysis toys.

Still nothing from Newspoll; the fortnightly Essential Research should be along this week, but may not tell us anything too exciting if it’s still holding off on resuming voting intention; and who knows what Roy Morgan might do.

Recent news items relevant to the federal sphere and within the ambit of this site:

John Ferguson of The Australian reports on Liberal plans to get Josh Frydenberg back into federal parliament, which one party source rates as “only a matter of how and when”. However, finding a vehicle for his return is a problem with no obvious solution. While some are reportedly urging him to win back Kooyong, another Liberal is quoted saying an infestation of sandals and tofu in Hawthorn means the seat is now forever lost. Another idea is for him to win Higgins back from Labor, supposedly an easier task since Labor will receive weaker preference flows than an independent. There is also the difficulty that the local party is dominated by a moderate faction of which Frydenberg does not form part, despite efforts to cultivate an impression to the contrary as he struggled to fight off Monique Ryan. Suggestions he might try his hand on the metropolitan fringes at La Trobe and Monash are running into concerns that he might go the way of Kristina Keneally. Yet another source says he might sit out two terms, the idea being that conditions are likely to remain unfavourable for the party in 2025.

• The Australia Institute has published results from a poll of 1424 respondents conducted by Dynata from the day of the election on May 21 through to 25 which found 86% agreed that truth in political advertising laws should be in place by the time of the next election, with little demographic or partisan variation. Sixty-five per cent said they had been exposed to advertising they knew to be misleading at least once a week during the campaign.

• A further study by the Australia Institute found that Labor led the field on social media advertising with expenditure of more than $5 million, after its 2019 post-election review found its social media strategy had been lacking. The Coalition collectively spent around $3.5 million and the United Australia Party $1.7 million.

Election analysis tools:

• Jim Reed of Resolve Strategic has developed a three-pronged “pendulum” to deal with the limitations of the traditional Mackerras model, which entirely assumes two-party competition. Labor, the Coalition and “others” each get a two-sided prong, with margins against the other two recorded on opposite sides.

• David Barry again provides Senate preference calculators that work off the ballot paper data to allow you to observe how each parties’ preferences divided among the various other parties, which you can narrow down according to taste. The deluxe model involves a downloadable app that you can then populate with data files, but there is now a no-frills online version that is limited to above-the-line votes.

• Andrew Conway has a site that allows you to do all sorts of things with the Senate results once you have climbed its learning curve, such as conduct a double dissolution-style count in which twelve (or any other number you care to nominate) rather than six candidates are elected in each state (on a relevant state page, click the “recount” link, enter 12 in the vacancies box towards the bottom, and click “recount”. Its tools can be used not only on each Senate election going back to 2013, but also on New South Wales local government elections at which councillors were elected under the Senate-style single transferable vote system last December.

• Mitch Gooding offers a tool that allows you to replicate how you filled out your Senate paper and calculates exactly how your vote was chopped up and distributed through various exclusions in the count and which candidates it helped elect, if any.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,112 comments on “Joshing around (open thread)”

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  1. Having had time to do some research on the overblown claim by Steelydan that removing the Indue Card from Indigenous communities will lead to an upsurge in domestic violence, I believe that there is no direct link of that sort but that the causes for increased levels of DV in Indigenous communities are a result of the following (note that the Indue card couldn’t positively affect any of them):

    Why are Indigenous women more likely to experience domestic and family violence?

    There are various explanations as to why rates of domestic and family violence are more prevalent in Indigenous communities. Many accept that the impact of colonisation, ongoing trauma from the displacement of Indigenous people from their traditional lands and kinship groups, the removal of children from their families, and the ongoing negative relationship between Indigenous people and the criminal justice system have all contributed to heightened levels of violence.

    For others, the low expectations that mainstream society has for Indigenous Australians, the high rates of unemployment and poverty, and substance misuse are more likely explanations.

    In fact, there is statistical evidence from a reliable source that the introduction and implementation of the Indue card has led to an increase in the amount of domestic and community violence in Indigenous communities:

    The cashless debit card has failed to reduce family violence in one of the first trial sites and may have actually coincided with an increase in abuse, police data released under freedom of information laws suggests.

    New figures obtained by the Australian National University researcher Elise Klein add more weight to critics’ claims that the card has not reduced reports of family violence about three years after welfare recipients were placed on to the card.

    Western Australia police data released under FOI laws in 2018 had shown family violence-related assaults and police attendances in the East Kimberley communities of Wyndham and Kununurra rose after the card was introduced in April 2016.

    So, who doesn’t know what they’re talking about, Steelydan? 😐

  2. Steelydan says:
    Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 10:13 pm

    You went early on the bigotry/racism card.

    Very typical of the left they don’t want action just tokenism and not just any old tokenism the grander the better then stick your head in the sand on what is really occurring. And just for your information nearly every aboriginal community in the NT is living in conditions worse than 3rd world countries that is 1000s of people. But lets get rid of the basics card as it is afront to who knows what, just fill in the space.”

    So, no evidence provided. You have a feelpinion actually, that is contrary to the only evidence that has been introduced to this debate.

    Thank you for playing and better luck next time.

    Edit: only evidence that either of us provided, as I see C@tmomma has posted.

  3. Cat

    “ I’m actually quite supportive of Boris Johnson’s efforts to keep Putin’s War on Ukraine, front and centre in the minds of people. Also supplying weapons and moral support. He’s not a great PM, but in this he’s spot on.”

    I agree. It is one thing Boris has consistently done the right thing about, both in his actions and statements. Considering the relative lack of self-interest in doing so, I must commend him on how he has handled the war on Ukraine.

  4. There are too many scenic shots in Australian movies.

    Jindabyne is pretty but not so pretty as to overcome what is an extreme premise underpinning a difficult movie.

  5. Domestic violence is not measured in the closing the Gap report. The figures must be somewhere.

    The removal of the basics card will produce a spike in domestic violence and I cant see why it will not stay higher with more money available for alcohol.

    People who live on income support payments do not buy alcohol or cigarettes because they can’t afford them

    Rishworth’s talking tour of the cashless debit card operation in Ceduna has been roundly criticised because she spoke to “community leaders” aka NGOs but did not talk to any one on the card

    The Liberal member for Grey dropped in to prime pro-card business people

  6. The cashless debit card is part of the Coalition strategy to make the experience of being unemployed so stressful and demeaning that people would rather be a galley slave. A pool of unemployed of 5% is a feature not a bug. Unemployment is temporarily low because immigration has been suppressed by Covid restrictions. Things will be back to normal soon, then get worse as the out-workings of the Pandemic, War and the Climate Emergency take hold, especially after everyone realises that Covid actually never finished.

    I don’t know how we fix criminality like domestic violence. It’s a wicked problem, I hate violence, I despise the perpetrators. That doesn’t help. Neither does tormenting the unemployed.

  7. Mavis: ” strategically it would be better”

    Nope. All at once. I’m not sure this hasn’t been the intention all along. Make sure that everyone understands what’s at stake for the mid-term elections. Keep that attention span for 3-6 months. That’s the american consciousness it seems. Do what’s necessary to get those extra senators. Stack that court.

    Otherwise… Next stop GOP: Brown vs Board of Education then abolition of the separation of church and state. Next stop after that: Fascism. Democrats have traditionally done badly in mid-terms. This time they get to sort it out or they disappear.

  8. Checking in late at night.

    I note Steely failed the requests to provide evidence to back his his claims.

    I suggest not worrying about engaging with him/her/them until he/she/they provide evidence.

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