Still nothing from Newspoll; the fortnightly Essential Research should be along this week, but may not tell us anything too exciting if it’s still holding off on resuming voting intention; and who knows what Roy Morgan might do.
Recent news items relevant to the federal sphere and within the ambit of this site:
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports on Liberal plans to get Josh Frydenberg back into federal parliament, which one party source rates as “only a matter of how and when”. However, finding a vehicle for his return is a problem with no obvious solution. While some are reportedly urging him to win back Kooyong, another Liberal is quoted saying an infestation of sandals and tofu in Hawthorn means the seat is now forever lost. Another idea is for him to win Higgins back from Labor, supposedly an easier task since Labor will receive weaker preference flows than an independent. There is also the difficulty that the local party is dominated by a moderate faction of which Frydenberg does not form part, despite efforts to cultivate an impression to the contrary as he struggled to fight off Monique Ryan. Suggestions he might try his hand on the metropolitan fringes at La Trobe and Monash are running into concerns that he might go the way of Kristina Keneally. Yet another source says he might sit out two terms, the idea being that conditions are likely to remain unfavourable for the party in 2025.
• The Australia Institute has published results from a poll of 1424 respondents conducted by Dynata from the day of the election on May 21 through to 25 which found 86% agreed that truth in political advertising laws should be in place by the time of the next election, with little demographic or partisan variation. Sixty-five per cent said they had been exposed to advertising they knew to be misleading at least once a week during the campaign.
• A further study by the Australia Institute found that Labor led the field on social media advertising with expenditure of more than $5 million, after its 2019 post-election review found its social media strategy had been lacking. The Coalition collectively spent around $3.5 million and the United Australia Party $1.7 million.
Election analysis tools:
• Jim Reed of Resolve Strategic has developed a three-pronged “pendulum” to deal with the limitations of the traditional Mackerras model, which entirely assumes two-party competition. Labor, the Coalition and “others” each get a two-sided prong, with margins against the other two recorded on opposite sides.
• David Barry again provides Senate preference calculators that work off the ballot paper data to allow you to observe how each parties’ preferences divided among the various other parties, which you can narrow down according to taste. The deluxe model involves a downloadable app that you can then populate with data files, but there is now a no-frills online version that is limited to above-the-line votes.
• Andrew Conway has a site that allows you to do all sorts of things with the Senate results once you have climbed its learning curve, such as conduct a double dissolution-style count in which twelve (or any other number you care to nominate) rather than six candidates are elected in each state (on a relevant state page, click the “recount” link, enter 12 in the vacancies box towards the bottom, and click “recount”. Its tools can be used not only on each Senate election going back to 2013, but also on New South Wales local government elections at which councillors were elected under the Senate-style single transferable vote system last December.
• Mitch Gooding offers a tool that allows you to replicate how you filled out your Senate paper and calculates exactly how your vote was chopped up and distributed through various exclusions in the count and which candidates it helped elect, if any.
Albo’s tie colour is salmon.
He thought about Teal, but decided to let those arrivistes swing in the breeze for a while..
Wouldn’t mind if Mr Dickwella dropped by to help me with the leaves.
nath – A pink tie with a dark suit is an excellent choice.
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Don’t forget the origins of neck ties – sweat bands for manual workers
”
nathsays:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 7:09 pm
Dr John says:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 7:06 pm
I like the pink tie.
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However suit is ill fitting in that sleeves not in unison, buttoned un-sartorially and /or tie length too short
________
Say what you will about MT but he always had a tailor at hand.
”
Or was it Taylormade? 🙂
Currently, under previous discredited regimes, the Indies had 8 staff – count ‘em – eight suckers on the public teat.
So 4 electorate staffers, and 4 ‘policy’ staffers.
Albo has said you can have 5. He is being very generous. When all is said and done, the Senate Indies like Pocock and Lambie might get one or two more – on condition they vote with Labor. The Teal lower housers can squeal.
Snappy Tom @ #1049 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 10:39 am
‘EU engine ban splits Germany’s coalition’
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-engine-ban-split-germany-coalition/
ShellBell, just settling on a new house. Going from native vegetation to exotic on property, though in a bush land setting.
Any tips for a leaf blower?
BREAKING: US will establish permanent headquarters for the US 5th Army Corps in Poland.
US will deploy two additional squadrons of F-35 fighter jets to the United Kingdom.
Dr John
I would have thought they originated with the cravat, which was popular amongst the nobility from around the mid 1600s.
“sprocket_says:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 7:52 pm
ShellBell, just settling on a new house. Going from native vegetation to exotic on property, though in a bush land setting.
Any tips for a leaf blower?”
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Leaf blowers probably the worst invention in modern times. In a close finish with jet ski’s!
sprocket : “Albo has said you can have 5. He is being very generous. When all is said and done, the Senate Indies like Pocock and Lambie might get one or two more – on condition they vote with Labor. The Teal lower housers can squeal.”
All parliamentarians should get staffers based around the amount of legislation they review that votes are sought on. Totally above board; A function of the parliamentary office. If Pocock’s vote is being sought on a piece of legislation, or Lambie’s, they can legitimately say that if they don’t have the resources to review it, their vote will be no.
For better or for worse, the Teals are irrelevant. If they contribute through the committee process to the development of legislation, like above, they should be able to seek support in the development of that legislation. But these people aren’t butlers. Their job is to contribute to the development of legislation in the parliament. Non-government parliamentarians, like Teals, don’t have executive roles, so the development of legislation is their job description. If they’re not doing any of those things, they don’t get an entourage courtesy of the taxpayers.
‘Leaf blowers probably the worst invention in modern times. In a close finish with jet ski’s!’
I saw a person once with a leaf sucker, yes a 2 stoke vacuum with a decent holding bag. I was impressed, as I hate leaf blowers (and jet skis…)
Whats with the hate for leaf blowers? If you have deciduous trees like I do they are a godsend.
Sprocket
Leaf blowers are only useful if you can blow leaves next door discreetly.
Raking is therapeutic.
“Whats with the hate for leaf blowers? If you have deciduous trees like I do they are a godsend.”
Yeah make a loud annoying noise and blow it down to your neighbours! Broom or suck it up.
And what’s this god shit?
Sprocket
“ When all is said and done, the Senate Indies like Pocock and Lambie might get one or two more – on condition they vote with Labor.”
Early test for FICAC
agree with Dreyfuss geting rid of aat as it is stacked twith liberals but so is most bodies the Ndisbord has three liberals on its bord includinmg Denis napthine as chair desbite only qualification is he has a son with a disability and was minister resoponsible in kenit years also former nsw mp peta seatun
Someone has to pick up the leaves eventually. Blowing them around is like sweeping things under the carpet.
Even brandis whoe portrayed him self as a menzeys liberal who respects the independents of courts apppointed ross vasta mps brother to the family cought and his former chief off staff and many other liberals to aat the stacking of liberals started under abott when brandis was aterney vastas father was sacked in 1989 buy goss after fitsgerald inquiry found he was friends with the policie comitioner close to bjkielpeterson
Mr Dreyfus’ best point was about improving Government decision making so as to reduce AAT filings.
Brandis eeven appointed his sons loyer to the aat Vasta worked foor brandis before election to parliament but when he was a backbencher but media paint him as a hearow becaus he made one speech on hanson his mwell received gay marige speech was him claiming credit foor gay marige as a government victory when most coalition mps were aposed
Zwaktyld says:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 8:24 pm
Someone has to pick up the leaves eventually. Blowing them around is like sweeping things under the carpet.
________
Let me educamate you. Lay your green waste bin on the ground, open the lid, blow the offending plant matter into the bin.
“Labor’s pre-election claim that its policies would cut an average electricity bill by $275 by 2025”
This will never again be mentioned by the ALP.
This Labor Government will live or die on its energy policy, going to be a tricky business almost magical even to reduce electricity prices and decrease carbon emissions. Bowen even stated he took allegations very seriously that much of the carbon credit system is a scam.
Q: I’m actually quite supportive of Boris Johnson’s efforts to keep Putin’s War on Ukraine, front and centre …
Just a genuine question, is he cracking down on the wealth of the oligarchs in Britain, and the Russian money laundering thru London?
Some very interesting housing stats here. We have two problems: people with no houses and houses with no people.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-29/census-finds-1-million-empty-houses-amid-affordability-crisis/101190794
The point of a leaf blower is to blow the leaves into neat piles from which they are easy to scoop up and place in the green bin.
Leaf blowers a godsend indeed.
Two minutes with the Stihl or 30 with a broom to clear my patio.
Neighbours don’t complain, they borrow it
Steve777 @ #1077 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 8:32 pm
Yet most blow them into the street, the &*$#s don’t pick them up….
‘Any tips for a leaf blower?’
Apologies Sprocket, I enjoy your posts, but this may be the worst question ever posed… suck, baby, suck….
Labor’s pre-election claim that its policies would cut an average electricity bill by $275
When Tony Abbott’s $550 “carbon tax” abolition windfall arrives, Labor will claim credit for it.
“Let me educamate you. Lay your green waste bin on the ground, open the lid, blow the offending plant matter into the bin.”
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Also dream this mantra as you bounce around in a one dimension jet ski on a Sunday afternoon pissing off 2000 beachgoers day out.
Previous president of Brighton Icebergers rightfully named them – Lebanese Trailbikes!
Not big, relatively quiet and ~$100 without the battery. Works for me in the yard as well as the workshop.
Here’s one.
I’m surrounded by eucalypts at home. I blow the leaves onto hard surfaces (at least those that can’t be picked up with a mower) – cement, bitumen – then pick them up with a petrol garden vac, then use them as mulch. In a storm or strong wind, eucalypts often drop large branches that are cut into manageable pieces by a petrol chain saw and taken to a dump. I don’t have a jet ski. And I wish I didn’t have any eucalypts.
Leaf blowers are the worst scourge of the suburbs. Anyone who uses one has no regard for the peaceful enjoyment of life of their neighbours.
Petrol blowers are very noisy at full boar. Around the house, I use an ozito battery-powered blower. You get about ten minutes out of it, and it takes a couple of hours to recharge the battery.
Steve777says:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 8:50 pm
Labor’s pre-election claim that its policies would cut an average electricity bill by $275
When Tony Abbott’s $550 “carbon tax” abolition windfall arrives, Labor will claim credit for it.
________________________________________________________
Oh so you do see the comparison. Just election BS then. Not sure the if it goes up $275 they will be talking about Abbott.
Ps When does the next closing the GAP report come out? enough time to see Labor’s policies working?
Further to Holden’s post:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/warsaw-hails-planned-us-military-base-poland-clear-signal-russia-2022-06-29/
Domestic violence is not measured in the closing the Gap report. The figures must be somewhere.
The removal of the basics card will produce a spike in domestic violence and I cant see why it will not stay higher with more money available for alcohol.
Torchbearer @ #894 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 8:31 pm
Marginally, as far as I can see. He got Roman Abramov to sell the Chelsea Football Club. Also some super yachts have been confiscated but no legislated stymieing of the Russian money spigot into the British Treasury that I’ve noticed.
Steelydan @ #909 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 9:27 pm
You don’t have a very high opinion of Indigenous Australians it seems. Anyway, I’d doubt the DV statistics would differ markedly from Whitefellas these days.
Steelydan @ Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 9:27 pm
You are entitled to your opinion. How about some supporting evidence? Here is some evidence that suggests your opinion is ill-informed:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/19/cashless-debit-card-fails-to-reduce-family-violence-rates-in-kimberley-towns
BoJo meets Albo:
https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/anthony-albanese-meets-with-uk-prime-minister-boris-johnson-for-first-time/news-story/8dd97973363c6911b7d174531d2e28e9
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 9:33 pm
Steelydan @ #909 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 9:27 pm
Domestic violence is not measured in the closing the Gap report. The figures must be somewhere.
The removal of the basics card will produce a spike in domestic violence and I cant see why it will not stay higher with more money available for alcohol.
You don’t have a very high opinion of Indigenous Australians it seems. Anyway, I’d doubt the DV statistics would differ markedly from Whitefellas these days.
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Wow your ignorance on this is truly outstanding “I’d doubt the DV statistics would differ markedly from Whitefellas these days”
30% of all domestic violence incidents in Australia are in aboriginal relationships and they make up around 2 % of the population. How can you be so ignorant of the situation going on in Australia.
Griff
You did not actually use the Guardian as a reference did you. The now as much about what is going on as Catmomma.
Steelydan 2 Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 9:47 pm
“Griff
You did not actually use the Guardian as a reference did you. The now as much about what is going on as Catmomma.”
Why yes, it provides WA Police data following an FoI request. Any chance you would like to edumacate me with better evidence? Be careful, your bigotry is showing 😉
SD: “as a reference”
That is affectionately referred to as the “invincible ignorance fallacy”.
BW: “Some very interesting housing stats here. We have two problems: people with no houses and houses with no people : https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-29/census-finds-1-million-empty-houses-amid-affordability-crisis/101190794 ”
I’ve spoken of this problem before. It isn’t just Australia either. It’s a genuine issue with the misallocation of resources, especially energy, all over the world.
Griff
You went early on the bigotry/racism card.
Very typical of the left they don’t want action just tokenism and not just any old tokenism the grander the better then stick your head in the sand on what is really occurring. And just for your information nearly every aboriginal community in the NT is living in conditions worse than 3rd world countries that is 1000s of people. But lets get rid of the basics card as it is afront to who knows what, just fill in the space.
Steve777 @ #1077 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 8:32 pm
[‘The point of a leaf blower is to blow the leaves into neat piles from which they are easy to scoop up and place in the green bin.’]
You must be a city slicker, leaves often not obeying the instructions of the blower, made all the worse if there’s wind.