Still nothing from Newspoll; the fortnightly Essential Research should be along this week, but may not tell us anything too exciting if it’s still holding off on resuming voting intention; and who knows what Roy Morgan might do.
Recent news items relevant to the federal sphere and within the ambit of this site:
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports on Liberal plans to get Josh Frydenberg back into federal parliament, which one party source rates as “only a matter of how and when”. However, finding a vehicle for his return is a problem with no obvious solution. While some are reportedly urging him to win back Kooyong, another Liberal is quoted saying an infestation of sandals and tofu in Hawthorn means the seat is now forever lost. Another idea is for him to win Higgins back from Labor, supposedly an easier task since Labor will receive weaker preference flows than an independent. There is also the difficulty that the local party is dominated by a moderate faction of which Frydenberg does not form part, despite efforts to cultivate an impression to the contrary as he struggled to fight off Monique Ryan. Suggestions he might try his hand on the metropolitan fringes at La Trobe and Monash are running into concerns that he might go the way of Kristina Keneally. Yet another source says he might sit out two terms, the idea being that conditions are likely to remain unfavourable for the party in 2025.
• The Australia Institute has published results from a poll of 1424 respondents conducted by Dynata from the day of the election on May 21 through to 25 which found 86% agreed that truth in political advertising laws should be in place by the time of the next election, with little demographic or partisan variation. Sixty-five per cent said they had been exposed to advertising they knew to be misleading at least once a week during the campaign.
• A further study by the Australia Institute found that Labor led the field on social media advertising with expenditure of more than $5 million, after its 2019 post-election review found its social media strategy had been lacking. The Coalition collectively spent around $3.5 million and the United Australia Party $1.7 million.
Election analysis tools:
• Jim Reed of Resolve Strategic has developed a three-pronged “pendulum” to deal with the limitations of the traditional Mackerras model, which entirely assumes two-party competition. Labor, the Coalition and “others” each get a two-sided prong, with margins against the other two recorded on opposite sides.
• David Barry again provides Senate preference calculators that work off the ballot paper data to allow you to observe how each parties’ preferences divided among the various other parties, which you can narrow down according to taste. The deluxe model involves a downloadable app that you can then populate with data files, but there is now a no-frills online version that is limited to above-the-line votes.
• Andrew Conway has a site that allows you to do all sorts of things with the Senate results once you have climbed its learning curve, such as conduct a double dissolution-style count in which twelve (or any other number you care to nominate) rather than six candidates are elected in each state (on a relevant state page, click the “recount” link, enter 12 in the vacancies box towards the bottom, and click “recount”. Its tools can be used not only on each Senate election going back to 2013, but also on New South Wales local government elections at which councillors were elected under the Senate-style single transferable vote system last December.
• Mitch Gooding offers a tool that allows you to replicate how you filled out your Senate paper and calculates exactly how your vote was chopped up and distributed through various exclusions in the count and which candidates it helped elect, if any.
Aaron newton @ #809 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 5:14 pm
What’s wrong with Mark Dreyfus? Don’t you agree with his AAT decision? Can you explain the reasoning behind your statement about him?
zoomster @ #816 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 5:41 pm
Must have cut to the quick when Mr Bowe told him he’s not as important as he thinks he is.
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 5:57 pm
zoomster @ #816 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 5:41 pm
Stop sooking, nath.
Must have cut to the quick when Mr Bowe told him he’s not as important as he thinks he is.
_______
I totally agreed with him as far as PB goes. However, In the field of live local home entertainment, I’m a God!
Snappy Tom at 5:43 pm
No great rush. It’s still there in the Constitution.
Sexy Rexy, with some Labor phobic trolling this afternoon:
“… apart the one absolute howler re staffing” … because Turnbull-Morrison pork is the gold standard. Obviously.
And this:
“Is Dreyfus dragging his heels re Collaery & K …?”
“I would suggest that Labor partisans have decided to be very over-sensitive to any scrutiny or criticism for the next 3 yrs.”
They’ve been fitting whatever is the best argument they can find between the facts and the necessary conclusion for so long they probably don’t even know they are doing it. None with quite the flair of Frank C but so so many of them same same.
WWP at 5.57
To use your logic, each state would have the same number of members as each other state…like the Senate.
The HoR is meant to represent the People. Let it do so on the basis of the equality of each person.
nath @ #764 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 3:34 pm
It would be great if I could be left to ask valid questions when people make broad brush statements backed up with zero evidence to support it, without you piping up with yet another baseless slur.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #824 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 6:02 pm
Tsk. Tsk, Earlwood, you’ll be called ‘the thought police’ or accused of being overly negative if you keep calling T1 and T2 out like that!
nath @ #822 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 5:59 pm
You don’t appear to have many gigs then if so, you’re here so much of the time.
Aaron newtonsays:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 5:13 pm
the new government is off to a better start then prodicte
____________________
Not on the cost of living they haven’t.
It’s been a bloody nightmare for households thus far.
I couldn’t imagine Dreyfus ‘rushing headlong’ into anything. He’s always given me the impression of weighing virtually every word before saying it. So when it comes to Collaery I’d expect the same very cautious approach. Perhaps Rex mistakes that for foot dragging ?
Bowen: “Enough about them.”
Damn straight. If those LNP troglodytes and their cheerleaders want to deal themselves out of the debate because they refuse to believe in climate change, it’s a case of ‘talk to the hand’. Cuz if you believe that shit, who cares what else ya believe. That’s you Taylormaid. Your opinion on the governance of the ALP is utterly irrelevant, because your concept of governance is completely irrelevant.
Whoops. I posted the wrong link:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-29/governor-general-david-hurley-apologises-for-video/101192282
This place would be much improved if comments like Rex Douglas’s benign observation about the government’s evident lack of urgency about the Witness K matter didn’t cause multiple posters to call him a troll.
Taylormade @ #830 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 6:11 pm
Yep, 1 month after 9 YEARS of Coalition government…and it’s all Labor’s fault.
Why are you so transparently ridiculous, TaylorMade?
I only called Rex a troll sarcastically Chief.
William Bowe @ #834 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 6:20 pm
I would hardly class it as ‘a benign observation’, when the Attorney General has barely got his feet under the desk and Rex Douglas is expecting him to have moved already on that matter and saying he hasn’t moved quickly enough, or so it seems to him. We can all have our different perceptions though.
“WWP at 5.57
To use your logic, each state would have the same number of members as each other state…like the Senate.
The HoR is meant to represent the People. Let it do so on the basis of the equality of each person.”
Well if I was negotiating a new Federation I’d definitely point out that the Senate had pretty much failed as a states house and would want malapportionment in the House of Reps.
It is just a negotiation really, and I think the small states did pretty poorly out of it.
The House of Representatives was not meant to represent the people at all. It always was and still is the Crown’s House, and it was initially peopled for his or her majesty very selectively by a very select portion of the population.
Notwithstanding the evolution of our society (and rejecting as fundamentally batshit crazy anything like originalism in Constitutional Jurisprudence), you don’t get to be a weak and pathetic country of people too scared to cut the apron strings and forge your own destiny as a country or have a people’s house while your head of state is decided by birth.
I know a lot, and particularly monarchists like to pretend they can walk on both sides of the street and get the magic power of the monarchy without out which choas would descend and also have fantasies about being a bold brave and democratic country of independence.
The Queen and Her GG literally pissed on democracy and pushed Whitlam out of Her House of Representatives and could do it again on whim. It is nothing at all like a peoples house, we aren’t a strong independent country that has ever earned demanded or achieved a people’s house.
Gough would have knocked it on the head on December 3.
And who just happens to be the subject of the top story on the 9Fairfax website?
The government is considering whether it can scrap a review body stacked with Liberal-linked members as integrity experts call for transparency and competitiveness around senior public appointments.
Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus is doing a “very serious review” of the Administrative Appeals Tribunal, which has taken up to two years to make decisions as case lists have lengthened, particularly for migration and NDIS matters.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/attorney-general-mulls-option-to-abolish-aat-and-start-from-scratch-20220629-p5axjn.html
C@tmomma @ #1018 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 6:25 pm
Makes you wonder what Labor actually did for 9 years in opposition, doesn’t it?
Play Nintendo?
Some have also done this with the infallible Independents, even the ones with zero parliamentary experience. Everything the Independents say are taken as fact and truth.
Time Line……..
Investment NSW deputy secretary Jenny West had received a verbal offer for the role in August
September Amy Brown had received instructions to “unwind” the offer, because of a “government decision” to instead make the trade commissioner roles “ministerial appointments”.
West’s offer was formally rescinded on 1 October, just days before Barilaro announced he would resign from parliament.
Mon 4 Oct 2021 12.08 AEDT
The New South Wales deputy premier, John Barilaro, has quit state politics, saying NSW needs a “new beginning” and that he had been thinking of leaving for some time.
Investment NSW began a second recruitment drive for the job that ended with Barilaro being identified as the “first-ranked candidate against the relevant criteria”.
That criteria presumably required the candidate to be an ex corrupt NSW politicians wearing a pork barrel.
Edit.. Oh, I forgot instructions to remind West appointment came from Barilaro/ office… who thought that one through… Barilaro proving he met all selection criteria.
William Bowesays:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 6:27 pm
Gough would have knocked it on the head on December 3.
——————————————–
If only for John Kerr on November 11?
There’s enough stink around the Barilaro appointment now that the right honourable thing for him to do is withdraw from the position.
Albo’s thinking – when you get to be PM, you get to meet the geniuses and the clowns…
“Rex Douglassays:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 6:38 pm
There’s enough stink around the Barilaro appointment now that the right honourable thing for him to do is withdraw from the position.”
————————————————-
Liberal and honourable is an oxymoron!
sprocket_ says:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 6:41 pm
Albo’s thinking – when you get to be PM, you get to meet the geniuses and the clowns…
________
I like the pink tie.
nath @ #1029 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 6:42 pm
Yes it struck me too. Is it a first for an Aus PM …?
This Barilaro thing reminds me of John Oliver’s ‘stupid watergate’ commentary on Trump.
Forgetting Trump (please), I just didn’t think they could be so stupid. This is blatant corruption. Even dumb people get it. In what world could you possibly think that pulling a qualified person for a highly paid job that they’ve already been awarded, and inserting yourself in that job, just before you quit your last job, would be… what’s the word… successful? Is that it? Is it this world?
I thought I had at least a little bit of pragmatism that someone who had risen to such a position of responsibility, Barilaro, would at least have some rudimentary insight. Seems I was wrong.
Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 6:47 pm
nath @ #1029 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 6:42 pm
sprocket_ says:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 6:41 pm
Albo’s thinking – when you get to be PM, you get to meet the geniuses and the clowns…
________
I like the pink tie.
Yes it struck me too. Is it a first for an Aus PM …?
_____
Nah. MT used to rock the Hot Pink and more subdued variations too.
Looking at BoJo and Albo together, you couldn’t find two more polar opposites.
sprocket_ @ #1026 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 6:41 pm
He’s more of a boofhead than I thought he’d be.
I’m actually quite supportive of Boris Johnson’s efforts to keep Putin’s War on Ukraine, front and centre in the minds of people. Also supplying weapons and moral support. He’s not a great PM, but in this he’s spot on.
“I thought I had at least a little bit of pragmatism that someone who had risen to such a position of responsibility, Barilaro, would at least have some rudimentary insight. Seems I was wrong.”
I honestly don’t understand NSW. I would have thought even a liberal government, and adjusting for the fact that generally police forces attract and retain a population that would almost all earn the descriptor ‘concerning’, and lean strongly towards authoritarianism and shooting an locking people up, would still have resisted using thugs to silence free speech and taking political prisoners to same ends.
But even adjusting for those things, NSW sent in a ‘Fixated Persons Unit’, in an attempt to destroy and silence opposition, that is just fascism plus plus, it isn’t over a line in front of you, you are there. Add a few political prisoners after convictions for climate protestors this week, and NSW is out of control. Makes dictator dan with, disgusting attack on the poorest of his state, and his police force’s appalling record of brutality against legitimate protest look almost like a respectable democratic leader.
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 6:54 pm
Well it’s probably the only safe thing he can talk about at the moment.
Dr John says:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 7:06 pm
I like the pink tie.
—————————————-
However suit is ill fitting in that sleeves not in unison, buttoned un-sartorially and /or tie length too short
________
Say what you will about MT but he always had a tailor at hand.
Dreyfus may appear to be dragging his feet on the disposition of Collaery’s trial, listed to start in October, four years after being charged. As Shadow Attorney, he was critical of this prosecution and therefore little doubt would’ve examined his options thereof. I’m hopeful that he makes a decision soon.
There was some discussion around a week ago to the effect that if he did withdraw the indictment against Collarey, where would that leave his co-accused, who pleaded guilty. Having given the matter more thought, I don’t see a problem, as a person is at liberty to enter a guilty plea even if he/she considers he/she is innocent, and for all manner of reasons, costs being one of them.
Such a plea is sometimes called a “plea of convenience” or a “pragmatic plea” and has been held by the High Court as not amounting to a miscarriage of justice – see: Meissner v R (1995) 184 CLR 132, where a majority held:
“A Court will act on a plea of guilty when it is entered in open Court by a person who is of full age and apparently of sound mind and understanding, provided the plea is entered in exercise of free choice in the interests of the person entering the plea. There is no miscarriage of justice if a Court does act on such a plea, even if the person entering it is not in truth guilty of the offence.”
As for the AAT, Dreyfus is onto this, the scandalous appointment
of Tory mates, many of whom don’t apparently hold legal qualifications, which should be a prerequisite:
[‘The government is considering whether it can scrap a review body stacked with Liberal-linked members as integrity experts call for transparency and competitiveness around senior public appointments.
Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus is doing a “very serious review” of the Administrative Appeals Tribunal, which has taken up to two years to make decisions as case lists have lengthened, particularly for migration and NDIS matters.
The independent tribunal reviews government decisions but many observers fear its authority has been undermined by successive Coalition governments making political appointments to its ranks.
Over the past three years, 40 per cent of AAT appointments had political ties. That was eight times the level of political appointments made under the Howard, Rudd and Gillard governments.
“The Liberals have repeatedly undermined the Administrative Appeals Tribunal by using it as a Liberal Party employment agency,” Dreyfus said.’]
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/attorney-general-mulls-option-to-abolish-aat-and-start-from-scratch-20220629-p5axjn.html
Thank you for your opinion about the Collaery matter, Mavis.
Dr John says:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 7:06 pm
I like the pink tie.
—————————————-
However suit is ill fitting in that sleeves not in unison, buttoned un-sartorially and /or tie length too short
________
Say what you will about MT but he always had a tailor at hand.
__________________________________________
Still couldn’t crack a decent BROADBAND sewing pattern
Dr John says:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 7:17 pm
Dr John says:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 7:06 pm
I like the pink tie.
—————————————-
However suit is ill fitting in that sleeves not in unison, buttoned un-sartorially and /or tie length too short
________
Say what you will about MT but he always had a tailor at hand.
__________________________________________
Still couldn’t crack a decent BROADBAND sewing pattern
_________
The suit turned out to be empty, but it looked great!
That pink tie goes with a lighter coloured suit.
For a dark suit like Albo’s wearing in that picture with Boris, a deep royal blue or socialist crimson would be the go. Since Boris has blue, socialist crimson it is.
EDIT: is that a small red map of Australia on Albo’s lapel? Can’t make out Boris’ lapel badge.
P1 at 6.29 pulls the Karen Andrews anti-Labor attack line: they had 9 years in Opposition…!
In Andrews’ case she was attacking Labor over the energy crisis (IIRC). P1 pulls it out for Dreyfus.
P1 must be comforted to be in the company of Andrews, who, just before the election, pulled her support for the extension to the Gold Coast light rail…which, it was quickly revealed (not by Andrews) would disruptively run past an investment property in which she and her husband have an interest.
P1 strikes again!
C@tmomma:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 7:15 pm
[‘Thank you for your opinion about the Collaery matter, Mavis.’]
You’re welcome, Cat. And I’m glad that Dreyfus is reviewing the AAT’s future, notice of which you posted up-thread, which I missed when I was posting the same SMH article you did – snap.
Steve777 says:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 7:29 pm
That pink tie goes with a lighter coloured suit.
_________
Your comment reminds me of Les Patterson’s reflection that he ‘dragged Australian men’s fashion into the 1970s, where it remains to this day’.
A pink tie with a dark suit is an excellent choice.
Holdenhillbilly @ #873 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 2:50 am
‘Germany rejects EU plan for ban on new fossil-fuel cars from 2035 .. Germany’s government will not agree to European Union plans to effectively ban the sale of new cars with combustion engines from 2035, Finance Minister Christian Lindner said’
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/germany-rejects-eu-plan-ban-new-fossil-fuel-cars-2035-2022-06-21/
The German statement is from 8 days ago but presumably still applies notwithstanding the EU Parliament decision today
Steve777 at 7.29
“…socialist crimson it is.”
I hope Albo gave him Billy Bragg’s rendition of The Internationale…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAw0Ri4FSdM
Ray (UK) at 7.34
I notice Lindner is FDP. Any indication the Greens are OK with his position?
”
Confessionssays:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 6:51 pm
sprocket_ @ #1026 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 6:41 pm
Albo’s thinking – when you get to be PM, you get to meet the geniuses and the clowns…
He’s more of a boofhead than I thought he’d be.
”
Did Albanese say “sit down, Boofhead” to him or mutterd to himself? 🙂