Still nothing from Newspoll; the fortnightly Essential Research should be along this week, but may not tell us anything too exciting if it’s still holding off on resuming voting intention; and who knows what Roy Morgan might do.
Recent news items relevant to the federal sphere and within the ambit of this site:
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports on Liberal plans to get Josh Frydenberg back into federal parliament, which one party source rates as “only a matter of how and when”. However, finding a vehicle for his return is a problem with no obvious solution. While some are reportedly urging him to win back Kooyong, another Liberal is quoted saying an infestation of sandals and tofu in Hawthorn means the seat is now forever lost. Another idea is for him to win Higgins back from Labor, supposedly an easier task since Labor will receive weaker preference flows than an independent. There is also the difficulty that the local party is dominated by a moderate faction of which Frydenberg does not form part, despite efforts to cultivate an impression to the contrary as he struggled to fight off Monique Ryan. Suggestions he might try his hand on the metropolitan fringes at La Trobe and Monash are running into concerns that he might go the way of Kristina Keneally. Yet another source says he might sit out two terms, the idea being that conditions are likely to remain unfavourable for the party in 2025.
• The Australia Institute has published results from a poll of 1424 respondents conducted by Dynata from the day of the election on May 21 through to 25 which found 86% agreed that truth in political advertising laws should be in place by the time of the next election, with little demographic or partisan variation. Sixty-five per cent said they had been exposed to advertising they knew to be misleading at least once a week during the campaign.
• A further study by the Australia Institute found that Labor led the field on social media advertising with expenditure of more than $5 million, after its 2019 post-election review found its social media strategy had been lacking. The Coalition collectively spent around $3.5 million and the United Australia Party $1.7 million.
Election analysis tools:
• Jim Reed of Resolve Strategic has developed a three-pronged “pendulum” to deal with the limitations of the traditional Mackerras model, which entirely assumes two-party competition. Labor, the Coalition and “others” each get a two-sided prong, with margins against the other two recorded on opposite sides.
• David Barry again provides Senate preference calculators that work off the ballot paper data to allow you to observe how each parties’ preferences divided among the various other parties, which you can narrow down according to taste. The deluxe model involves a downloadable app that you can then populate with data files, but there is now a no-frills online version that is limited to above-the-line votes.
• Andrew Conway has a site that allows you to do all sorts of things with the Senate results once you have climbed its learning curve, such as conduct a double dissolution-style count in which twelve (or any other number you care to nominate) rather than six candidates are elected in each state (on a relevant state page, click the “recount” link, enter 12 in the vacancies box towards the bottom, and click “recount”. Its tools can be used not only on each Senate election going back to 2013, but also on New South Wales local government elections at which councillors were elected under the Senate-style single transferable vote system last December.
• Mitch Gooding offers a tool that allows you to replicate how you filled out your Senate paper and calculates exactly how your vote was chopped up and distributed through various exclusions in the count and which candidates it helped elect, if any.
Quasar @ #748 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 6:29 am
Thanks for the tip. Scanning only a short way into his tweets Ornato pops up.
https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1541877052353220611
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Rob Harris reports that Anthony Albanese has said Russia’s atrocities in Ukraine are uniting the democratic world against Vladimir Putin’s regime, as he joined a chorus of international condemnation over the Kremlin’s missile strikes on a busy shopping centre.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-stands-with-nato-to-condemn-putin-as-uk-warns-of-1937-moment-20220628-p5ax8y.html
Mick Ryan writes that yesterday’s announcement of a revised military leadership team which has great clarity about the challenges it will face in the short and medium term. These can be traced back to a single source: an aggressive, assertive and militarily capable China.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/china-gives-adf-leaders-great-clarity-about-military-challenges-20220628-p5ax71.html
On the above appointment Greg Sheridan says, “These men are all fine Australians, good, brave, competent, etc. But let’s be clear: they have together overseen a dismal, wretched, useless, ineffective performance in delivering actual defence capability.”
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/defence/medal-for-richard-marles-if-he-can-win-with-this-lot/news-story/fe34e9c39bde45fcf35ec4baec56bfb2
Richard Marles says he’s aiming to decide which nuclear submarine Australia will acquire by early next year while blasting the former government for letting major defence purchases “drift” for years, writes James Massola.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/marles-laments-drift-over-submarines-frigates-as-defence-chiefs-terms-are-extended-20220628-p5ax75.html
“How did it come to this? Australia’s defence policy has been baldly sacrificed to US interests via AUKUS with little public discourse”, writes Mike Milligan.
https://johnmenadue.com/oh-for-a-prime-minister-honest-about-australias-security/
Pontificating Paul Kelly is angry that Albanese is approaching the constitutional referendum this term on the First Nations voice to parliament with undue haste.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/anthony-albaneses-haste-threatens-indigenous-voice/news-story/704e0dca8cea45c36cce252d889ab33c
Sarah Martin tells us that Queensland Labor MP Milton Dick has emerged as the frontrunner to take on the coveted Speaker role in the House of Representatives, despite a split within the right faction that will determine the position.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/29/labor-mp-milton-dick-emerges-as-frontrunner-for-speaker-role-despite-faction-divisions
Australia’s new prime minister will have an easier time mending relations with the French “because he is not Scott Morrison and that’s a big advantage”, the former leader Malcolm Turnbull has told journalists in Paris. Turnbull said Anthony Albanese, who will meet the French president in Paris on Friday, was honest and “never had a reputation for being deceitful and untruthful”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/29/albanese-is-not-scott-morrison-and-thats-a-big-advantage-malcolm-turnbull-tells-french-media
Chris Barrett tells us that Malaysia has joined Indonesia in expressing anxiety about Australia’s nuclear submarine ambitions.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/malaysia-doubles-down-on-aukus-submarine-concerns-during-wong-visit-20220628-p5axfz.html
There is no shortage of demand for electric vehicles. The key in Australia is to improve the supply, writes Monique Ryan in an op-ed.
https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/how-the-albanese-government-can-unlock-the-electric-car-market-20220628-p5ax8s
Young Australians have reported far higher levels of psychological distress than any other age group, with the census capturing the upheaval and mental toll of living through a pandemic.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/shocking-and-perplexing-census-reveals-covid-toll-on-mental-health-20220628-p5ax4u.html
A Liberal MP said that he “secured” a $20,000 grant for a gun club which lists him as its patron, raising questions about whether he should have disclosed his links to the organisation in his register of interests, reports Christopher Knaus.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/28/liberal-mp-was-patron-of-queensland-gun-club-for-which-he-claimed-to-have-secured-20000-grant
Nick Bonyhady reports that Uber’s global chief executive has heralded a landmark agreement the ridesharing giant has struck with one of its fiercest critics, Australia’s Transport Workers Union, in a major compromise that will frame the future of the gig economy.
https://www.smh.com.au/technology/uber-strikes-landmark-deal-on-worker-rights-and-pay-with-transport-union-20220517-p5alzg.html
Elizabeth Knight explains why Australian salmon is such a tasty morsel for international buyers.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/why-australian-salmon-is-such-a-tasty-morsel-for-international-buyers-20220628-p5ax76.html
Lendlease whistleblower Tony Watson is fighting the big property developer in court as the Tax Office investigation into the $1bn tax scam grinds on behind the scenes, writes Michael West.
https://michaelwest.com.au/everything-to-play-for-whistleblowers-home-on-the-line-as-lendlease-makes-merry-with-tax-code/
Heidi Nicholl argues that the census results mean religions should stop getting special treatment.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/census-results-mean-religions-should-stop-getting-special-treatment-20220628-p5ax52.html
According to Stephen Bartholomeusz, the “cash box” company that plans to acquire Donald Trump’s fledgling social media business and provide it with $US1.3 billion ($1.9 billion) of funding has revealed it is under investigation by a federal grand jury, threatening completion of the deal.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/the-billions-for-trump-s-media-deal-are-under-a-cloud-20220628-p5ax41.html
The US supreme court is letting prayer back in public schools, and this is unsettling, writes Moira Donegan.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/28/kennedy-v-bremerton-supreme-court-prayer-public-schools-football-coach
The acerbic John Crace begins this contribution with, “Spare a thought for Simon Case. He’s diligently worked his way up the ladder to become the youngest head of the civil service and cabinet secretary only to be landed with Boris Johnson as prime minister. Of all the gin joints in all the towns in all the world. The Convict who thinks nothing of trashing the reputations of anyone and anything with which he comes in contact. People get chewed up and spat out in an unthinking heartbeat. Case is no exception. His is a precarious existence. Every day he must curse his luck that he didn’t get the top job five years later.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/28/simon-case-refuses-come-clean-dirty-work-boris-johnson
Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has vowed to take legal action to ensure a referendum on Scottish independence if the British government tried to block it.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/it-must-be-resolved-democratically-scottish-leader-seeks-independence-vote-next-year-20220629-p5axi5.html
Former “Arsehole of the Week” nominee Ghislaine Maxwell was sentenced to 20 years in prison yesterday for helping the financier Jeffrey Epstein sexually abuse underage girls.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/ghislaine-maxwell-sentenced-to-20-years-in-prison-20220629-p5axi7.html
Cartoon Corner
Matt Golding
David Pope
Mark David
Reg Lynch
Megan Herbert
John Shakespeare
Cathy Wilcox
Fiona Katauskas
Leak
From the US
The Trump voter on Roe v Wade. Usual disclaimers on illogic, hypocrisy, and simple bone-headed confusion apply.
https://twitter.com/TheGoodLiars/status/1541535462577291267
https://twitter.com/TheGoodLiars/status/1484954598360207365
Thanks BK. The most concise comment I’ve read on Ghislaine Maxwell, by Monica Lewinsky, is “now do the men”.
Matt Canavan was just on Today saying that the way to fix Victoria’s Ambulance crisis was to let UNVACCINATED health workers come back to work! In the health system!!!
I think the Coalition is trying to get Clive Palmer and Pauline Hanson’s voters into their tent as their strategy to win back government. It’s nuts, but there you have it.
Not again
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp
Thanks BK
“ On the above appointment Greg Sheridan says, “These men are all fine Australians, good, brave, competent, etc. But let’s be clear: they have together overseen a dismal, wretched, useless, ineffective performance in delivering actual defence capability.”
Which makes the extensions even more difficult to understand. By the way, can they really be competent yet deliver a “dismal, wretched, useless, ineffective performance in delivering actual defence capability.”?
Thanks BK
Sheridan’s assessment of the ADF is interesting:
“These men are all good, brave, competent, etc. But let’s be clear: they have together overseen a dismal, wretched, useless, ineffective performance in delivering actual defence capability.”
I’m guessing Sheridan does not go on to draw the obvious implication: that Coalition defence ministers over the last 9 years, the officers ultimately responsible for securing effective defence capability on behalf of the nation, were serially and grossly incompetent: or that’s the most charitable interpretation.
Cronus at 6:58 am
All the ‘serial incompetence’ shows what a shower of money spent on lobbyists, duchessing pollies and funding ‘think tanks’ can buy you. Besides, it is traditional for Australia to get totally screwed over with what they end up paying for military purchases so it’s practically accepted normality.
A little more on changes in NATO.
https://www.brecorder.com/news/40183068/scholz-says-germany-to-become-biggest-nato-force-in-europe
Cronus @ #569 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 6:31 am
Turkey must have received a suitable emolument and felt much embarrassment after the shopping mall atrocity. 😐
I don’t think Angus Campbell will be there any longer than his 2 year extension to implement the findings of the Brereton Report.
I can see the logic of the things that Sheridan et al have written but I think the decision has been taken that it’s more important to see the Brereton Report through to its conclusion. I think what we saw yesterday was the pieces moved into place behind the CDF for one of them to take over in 2 year’s time.
Jan. 6 committee member calls hearing testimony proof this wasn’t a ‘spontaneous thing’ that just ‘got out of hand’
WASHINGTON, D.C. — One of the main things revealed in the last-minute Tuesday hearing with Cassidy Hutchinson before the House Select Committee is that days ahead of the attack on Congress, the president’s lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, kept mentioning the Proud Boys and Oath Keeper militias.
When they were at the Ellipse on Jan. 6, Hutchinson revealed that Trump didn’t want officials to use metal detectors so people with weapons could enter the event.
Hutchinson claimed in her testimony that former president Trump said, “I don’t f***ing care if they have weapons. They’re not here to hurt me. . Let my people in. They can march to the Capitol from here. Let the people in.
For some, the testimony connected the dots for what the White House knew — and when they knew it, working to dispel the argument that the crowd simply got out of hand on Jan. 6.
What Hutchinson indicated in the hearing Tuesday, is that the White House knew Trump supporters could get violent, and they were being encouraged to do it.
https://www.rawstory.com/january-6-stephanie-murphy-spontaneous/
C@tmomma @ #761 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 7:12 am
I spotted a comment this morning attributed to Erdogan, wtte, Türkiye got what it wanted. A group “hiding in Sweden” were a sticking point. Maybe that was resolved.
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 6:54 am
Matt Canavan was just on Today saying that the way to fix Victoria’s Ambulance crisis was to let UNVACCINATED health workers come back to work! In the health system!!!
“I think the Coalition is trying to get Clive Palmer and Pauline Hanson’s voters into their tent as their strategy to win back government. It’s nuts, but there you have it.”
And why on earth would Today be interviewing a totally irrelevant opposition Senator such as Canavan?
C@T
“ Turkey must have received a suitable emolument and felt much embarrassment after the shopping mall atrocity. ”
Agreed and I don’t think Turkey’s position was defensible in any case. I suspect they were just gaming the system to gain money/trade/arms etc.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/06/27/joshing-around-open-thread/comment-page-16/#comment-3945713
More like cash, favs and toys[/ Foreign Military Sales] behind the scenes …
Ddont know how Sheridon can say themilitary leaders are competent bbut not deliver any thingplus these leaders campbbell were appointed buy turnbull and morrisonmoriarti should also go as department secretary given his been there foor same time
canivans been trying to get the palmer hanson vote since arround november last yeaer when he backt hansons anti vacsination basickly that unlike kelley and renick was doing it not based on beliefs but hoping the palmer anti vacksers woould swing back to lnp and help them retain government thats whiy joice did nothing abbout christinsons pandering to anti vacksers they saw him as an aset
Cronus @ #585 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 7:28 am
He was put up by Dutton to be the Coalition’s spokesman wrt the issues of the day. As those shows are wont to do.
Cronus @ #586 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 7:31 am
It seems they wanted some PKK members in Sweden 😐
Marles is off to a good start so far but buy reappointing campblll ansd his leadership team especialy moriarti who over saw the cansiled persuches he cant bblame the former government while keeping the oficials responsible foore mismanaging them
this makes natoe look even worse that they refused Zulenskis request to join nato and left ucrane fighting on there own with out back up to face putin with desbite tough talk the west were willing to sacrefice nato to putin to apeaze putin
Thank you BK!
so Ros vasta had no say at all that a gun club he was patron got a Morrison government grant his father got in trouble in 1990s under gos foor being close to the police comitionersacked after fitsgerald inquiry however was cleared later on
Aaron newton @ #595 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 7:53 am
Ross Vasta seems to be a legacy appointment of the LNP due to the influence of his father in Queensland. In all his time in parliament he never so much as got even an Assistant Minister appointment.
Vasters father angilow was sacked as a suprime cought judge after his friendship with former bjkilepeterson police chief found guilty after fitsgerald inquiery however his father was cleared
Thanks, BK.
Reviewing the expected J6C Hearings, today’s hearing (#6) slots into the series and does not appear to be an “extra” hearing. So now I really don’t understand why it was “urgent” and “a surprise”.
THE ATTACK ON THE CAPITOL – A DOCUMENTARY FOR OUR TIMES
https://january6th.house.gov/legislation/hearings
Episode 1 (June 10): “What happened on January 6?”
Episode 2 (June 13): “The Big Lie”
Episode 3 (June 16): “Pressuring Pence”
Episode 4 (June 22): “Pressuring the States”
Episode 5 (June 25): “Decapitate the DOJ”
Episode 6 (June 29): “Trump Summons The Mob”
Episode 7 (TBD…): “Trump Fiddles, Congress Burns”
I need a nap. 🙂 Back later…
The media commentary in the US are all expressing their shock about the jan6 hearing today. Shocked about Trump’s conduct.
I find it weird. It is exactly what I expected.
Late riser
The reason has been posited.
The witness safety was a concern
Did you see the text she got?
Thank you BK!
test
There have been rumblings that a few repub members of Congress are acting as foreign agents.
Now that would be something that if revealed by the committee, would make me stand up and take notice.
Victoria @ #781 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 8:03 am
Sorry. Comments not getting posted.
Hmm. I didn’t see any direct threats, only the anonymized texts where the person being threatened wasn’t identified. What you’re saying implies the threats are present, and that she needed to testify in public in order to save herself from harm (or worse). Is that what you mean?
Victoria @ #780 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 8:02 am
The word “SHOCK” sells, I guess.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/29/albanese-is-not-scott-morrison-and-thats-a-big-advantage-malcolm-turnbull-tells-french-media
After KRudd7x7, Tonicchio, Fizza …
Spinocchio i/c 7Ps would have been no better than 5Cs (CIC/ cxyzs & rorts, climate, Covid/ Wuflu, corporate welfare, CHYNA)
Surely Albo can do better, especially given make up of the senate.
‘Pontificating Paul Kelly is angry that Albanese is approaching the constitutional referendum this term on the First Nations voice to parliament with undue haste.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/anthony-albaneses-haste-threatens-indigenous-voice/news-story/704e0dca8cea45c36cce252d889ab33c‘
——————————————————-
Uh huh. The Statement from the Heart was issued in 2017. Must not have undue haste!
Late riser
The witness may change their mind if they believe their life is at risk.
The committee didn’t want to risk that. Also,the witness may have agreed to be more forthcoming if she were able to testify asap
‘There is no shortage of demand for electric vehicles. The key in Australia is to improve the supply, writes Monique Ryan in an op-ed.
https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/how-the-albanese-government-can-unlock-the-electric-car-market-20220628-p5ax8s‘
—————————
Ryan should get off her arse, stop gabbing, and do something in the real world.
Yep. Can’t come soon enough. And Riggleman is a Republican.
Scott MacFarlane
@MacFarlaneNews
And former committee investigator
@RepRiggleman
tells
@NicolleDWallace
he doesn’t think America has seen anything yet..
More. To. Come.
RE: Sheridans “These men are all good, brave, competent”
What evidence do we have they are competent, all evidence about acquisitions would suggest the opposite? From the war crimes revelations, what evidence do we have these leaders are good?
I hate the presumption that you join the military and are suddenly awarded hero status. The military obviously attracts some of societies lowest life, like Roberts-Smith…as well as other worthy people.
Looks like the rain is coming back along the east coast.
The decision to extend the terms of a bunch of compromised ADF leadership failures looks to be a bad decision. Putin is smarter than Marles. If his military leaders fail they get the chop and are replaced.
C@T
Yes, The Turks have yet to come to grips with their own past re the Kurds and Armenians. The Turks don’t hold any moral high ground on the treatment of these minorities and can’t expect the rest of the world to just ignore such a history.
A pipe dream. No Australian government can future proof anything to do with the environment because it has zero control over 98% of the world’s emissions.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/27/oyster-and-kelp-farmers-join-calls-to-future-proof-nsw-south-coasts-blue-economy
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 8:38 am
‘Pontificating Paul Kelly is angry that Albanese is approaching the constitutional referendum this term on the First Nations voice to parliament with undue haste.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/anthony-albaneses-haste-threatens-indigenous-voice/news-story/704e0dca8cea45c36cce252d889ab33c‘
——————————————————-
“Uh huh. The Statement from the Heart was issued in 2017. Must not have undue haste!”
Anything not delayed by a quarter of a century is undertaken in undue haste according to conservatives. A bit like action on climate change.
Victoria @ #789 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 8:39 am
Yes, I see all that and it fits, but nothing I saw or heard (or remember right now) at today’s hearing directly supports those motives. (I may have missed it. It was waaaay early for me.) If anything I think she added to her risk by testifying. I think we’re still speculating, and we’re trying to work backwards from the fact of a hastily convened hearing.
One thing I did notice was that right at the end she pursed her lips. I wondered at that. (Perhaps people drop their guard when they think something is over.) I had the idea she was thinking, “Is that all?” or “This doesn’t seem enough.” or “I hope that was good enough.”. Whatever it was, she wasn’t wholly satisfied.
Torchbearer says:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 8:48 am
RE: Sheridans “These men are all good, brave, competent”
“What evidence do we have they are competent, all evidence about acquisitions would suggest the opposite? From the war crimes revelations, what evidence do we have these leaders are good?
I hate the presumption that you join the military and are suddenly awarded hero status. The military obviously attracts some of societies lowest life, like Roberts-Smith…as well as other worthy people.”
I think this is particularly the case under Coalition government’s who semi-deify the military and then attempt to use it for political purposes. Most of the military are just normal folk doing their job. In any case, the KPIs for leadership and competence are on public display for all to see and the evidence is damning (Brereton Report, numerous weapon platform procurement project failures). These leaders are damned by their results, and I say this as a career military member. There are many excellent individuals but there are clear, long term systematic problems that have continued to fester for 20 years.
C@tmomma @ #755 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 6:54 am
Has the dunce looked at the relevant numbers?? I think there are only a few unvaccinated health workers – not enough to make a big difference.