Still nothing from Newspoll; the fortnightly Essential Research should be along this week, but may not tell us anything too exciting if it’s still holding off on resuming voting intention; and who knows what Roy Morgan might do.
Recent news items relevant to the federal sphere and within the ambit of this site:
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports on Liberal plans to get Josh Frydenberg back into federal parliament, which one party source rates as “only a matter of how and when”. However, finding a vehicle for his return is a problem with no obvious solution. While some are reportedly urging him to win back Kooyong, another Liberal is quoted saying an infestation of sandals and tofu in Hawthorn means the seat is now forever lost. Another idea is for him to win Higgins back from Labor, supposedly an easier task since Labor will receive weaker preference flows than an independent. There is also the difficulty that the local party is dominated by a moderate faction of which Frydenberg does not form part, despite efforts to cultivate an impression to the contrary as he struggled to fight off Monique Ryan. Suggestions he might try his hand on the metropolitan fringes at La Trobe and Monash are running into concerns that he might go the way of Kristina Keneally. Yet another source says he might sit out two terms, the idea being that conditions are likely to remain unfavourable for the party in 2025.
• The Australia Institute has published results from a poll of 1424 respondents conducted by Dynata from the day of the election on May 21 through to 25 which found 86% agreed that truth in political advertising laws should be in place by the time of the next election, with little demographic or partisan variation. Sixty-five per cent said they had been exposed to advertising they knew to be misleading at least once a week during the campaign.
• A further study by the Australia Institute found that Labor led the field on social media advertising with expenditure of more than $5 million, after its 2019 post-election review found its social media strategy had been lacking. The Coalition collectively spent around $3.5 million and the United Australia Party $1.7 million.
Election analysis tools:
• Jim Reed of Resolve Strategic has developed a three-pronged “pendulum” to deal with the limitations of the traditional Mackerras model, which entirely assumes two-party competition. Labor, the Coalition and “others” each get a two-sided prong, with margins against the other two recorded on opposite sides.
• David Barry again provides Senate preference calculators that work off the ballot paper data to allow you to observe how each parties’ preferences divided among the various other parties, which you can narrow down according to taste. The deluxe model involves a downloadable app that you can then populate with data files, but there is now a no-frills online version that is limited to above-the-line votes.
• Andrew Conway has a site that allows you to do all sorts of things with the Senate results once you have climbed its learning curve, such as conduct a double dissolution-style count in which twelve (or any other number you care to nominate) rather than six candidates are elected in each state (on a relevant state page, click the “recount” link, enter 12 in the vacancies box towards the bottom, and click “recount”. Its tools can be used not only on each Senate election going back to 2013, but also on New South Wales local government elections at which councillors were elected under the Senate-style single transferable vote system last December.
• Mitch Gooding offers a tool that allows you to replicate how you filled out your Senate paper and calculates exactly how your vote was chopped up and distributed through various exclusions in the count and which candidates it helped elect, if any.
Late riser
Her testimony was very consequential. No doubt about it.
Boerwar at 8.38
Uh huh. The Statement from the Heart was issued in 2017. Must not have undue haste!
____________
Yes, and only 234 years since the ‘First’ Fleet*.
* Given the number of Makassan, Dutch and English ships that had arrived here over many centuries, ‘First’ seems a tad over-blown…
Laughtong
It reminds me of the story that Neil Mitchell tried to make about teachers. Apparently 99 percent of teachers are vaxxed.
The right wing idiots never stop with the bullshit
Boerwar at 8.54
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/27/oyster-and-kelp-farmers-join-calls-to-future-proof-nsw-south-coasts-blue-economy
____________
Doesn’t a ‘future-proofing’ request usually mean ‘give us money’?
Morning all. Thanks BK. I have a different concern re: the Sheridan article:
“ On the above appointment Greg Sheridan says, “These men are all fine Australians, good, brave, competent, etc. But let’s be clear: they have together overseen a dismal, wretched, useless, ineffective performance in delivering actual defence capability.”
Sheridan gets this wrong IMO. The three service chiefs report to Marles via ADF chief General Campbell. The acquisitions are all managed by the parallel but separate Defence Department. The problems are in the Defence Department, not the ADF.
The ADF is responsible for in-service issues like the war crimes in Afghanistan and implementing the Brereton Report.
But all the delays, poor financial management, constant interference to create costly bespoke designs, and poor weapon selection are problems in the Defence Department. Senior people in there need to be replaced and the culture changed. It also needs to stop being a retirement home for former ADF officers and obtain greater engineering and project management skills.
Listened to the news on ABC radio just then and there is reporting of boats being turned back by Sri Lankan navy…the appearance of Hollie Hugh’s, quoting Canavan, Dutton the alternative PM etc.
We need to be prepared for continual backgrounding by all MSM sources , sadly.
Taylormade @ #728 Tuesday, June 28th, 2022 – 9:18 pm
That’s strange. I just got my gas bill. It’s almost exactly the same as my last one. In fact it’s $1.24 less than last time.
Do you live in Victoria. If so, the State gov is providing $250 energy relief for every household from July 1.
I really need a nap, but laugh out loud moment when I read this. (ABC Live Blog)
Boerwar at 8.54
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/27/oyster-and-kelp-farmers-join-calls-to-future-proof-nsw-south-coasts-blue-economy
This is not trying to control the climate/emissions.
This is looking at how can the local environment and economy survive the future
Under ScoMo – he hardly put any legislation up – it would have been easy to have a single advisor…
Anyway UK cartoons:
Hurley’s strong vice-regal endorsement via video of “Homes by Howe” is an instance of very poor judgment:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10959955/Governor-General-David-Hurley-fire-Homes-Howe-testimonial-video.html
And that he didn’t anticipate that the building company would not make hay with it further raises questions about his judgment, even his suitability for high office.
”
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 7:12 am
Cronus @ #569 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 6:31 am
Jan 6 says:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 6:27 am
Late Riser @ #742 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 5:33 am
around the world…
“NATO will formally invite Finland and Sweden to join the alliance on Wednesday after Turkey lifted its veto on their membership, the secretary-general said Tuesday evening.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/06/28/world/russia-ukraine-war-news
(paywalled)
Putin is winning bigly. Russians must be getting tired of all this winning. MRGA”
A perfect example of unintended consequences for Putin. He deserves no less.
Turkey must have received a suitable emolument and felt much embarrassment after the shopping mall atrocity.
”
Erdogan is an Islamist. Islamists don’t fell embarassment or shame. They just want to impose their will like Christian fundamentalists irrespective of what others think.
What I heard on ABC Newsradio is that Biden talked to him on phone on behalf of Finland and Sweden.
Late riser
Since Trump announced his run for president, i envisaged he would be a seditious traitor.
What i got spectacularly wrong, was that nearly all the GOP mps have supported him to the end and beyond.
Who would have picked that Liz Cheney would be virtually the only one on the side of democracy.
I find Aaron Newton analysis and information much more nuanced and detailed than many political tragics here. 🙂
Mavis at 9.27
Hurley’s strong vice-regal endorsement via video of “Homes by Howe” is an instance of very poor judgment:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10959955/Governor-General-David-Hurley-fire-Homes-Howe-testimonial-video.html
And that he didn’t anticipate that the building company would not make hay with it further raises questions about his judgment, even his suitability for high office.
____________
Given Hurley’s religious claptrap during the Morrison era, is he running second to John Kerr in the ‘worst G-G’ stakes?
Victoria, same here. I thought Cheney would be politically useful to Pelosi in setting up the committee, but after 6 episodes this is Cheney’s show. Unless Thompson does something really dramatic in the 7th, he’s just been holding the door open for Cheney. Whether the door that Cheney is holding open for her fellow Republicans is used by them remains to be seen.
Ven:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 9:35 am
[‘I find Aaron Newton analysis and information much more nuanced and detailed than many political tragics here. ‘]
Me too, and I must say I’m intrigued by the Mars stuff too, though finding it to be a little misplaced on a psephology site.
Further to Mavis at 9.27
Given Hurley’s religious claptrap during the Morrison era, is he running second to John Kerr in the ‘worst G-G’ stakes?
____________
Sorry, I forgot about Peter Hollingworth. Such a strange race to the bottom, the ‘worst G-G’ event…
”
Boerwarsays:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 8:40 am
‘There is no shortage of demand for electric vehicles. The key in Australia is to improve the supply, writes Monique Ryan in an op-ed.
https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/how-the-albanese-government-can-unlock-the-electric-car-market-20220628-p5ax8s‘
—————————
Ryan should get off her arse, stop gabbing, and do something in the real world.
”
You know Politics is not brain surgery. With brain surgery you can save one person at a time. But if with politics you can affect millions of people at a time.
Dog’s Brunchsays:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 9:18 am
Listened to the news on ABC radio just then and there is reporting of boats being turned back by Sri Lankan navy…the appearance of Hollie Hugh’s, quoting Canavan, Dutton the alternative PM etc.
We need to be prepared for continual backgrounding by all MSM sources , sadly.
____________________________________
I thought they didn’t comment about “On Water Matters” and broadcast “The Shipping News.”
NSW issues bee lockdown after deadly varroa mite parasite discovered
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/27/nsw-issues-bee-lockdown-after-deadly-parasite-discovered
Late riser
Agree re Cheney.
Apparently a source is reporting that the secret service person is willing to testify that Trump didn’t try to get his hands on steering wheel.
Cassidy Hutchinson reported what was told to her and apparently the committee has corroborating evidence on the record from others.
I doubt Cheney would allow the questioning if it was dubious in nature.
From Ben Raue’s twitter feed…
https://twitter.com/benraue/status/1541661100072398848?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Census results will lead to re-calculation of Federal HoR seat entitlements for the various jurisdictions (see tweet.)
In MY HoR – which uses the average population of Taswegian seats as a basis for calculating seat entitlements for all other jurisdictions (+/-10%) – the seat allocation would be…
NSW 70
Vic 57
Qld 46
SA 16
WA 24
Tas 5
NT 2
ACT 4
Total 224
So, we need 112 Senators. Simples!
Ven
Do you know what was Monique Ryan’s profession before entering politics?
Snappy Tom:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 9:40 am
Mavis at 9.27
Hurley’s strong vice-regal endorsement via video of “Homes by Howe” is an instance of very poor judgment:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10959955/Governor-General-David-Hurley-fire-Homes-Howe-testimonial-video.html
And that he didn’t anticipate that the building company would not make hay with it further raises questions about his judgment, even his suitability for high office.
____________
[‘Given Hurley’s religious claptrap during the Morrison era, is he running second to John Kerr in the ‘worst G-G’ stakes?’]
I don’t think he’s in that league yet but with any further lapses of judgment, Albanese may consider Hurley’s future. I say this as if people relied on his endorsement and the company went into, say, liquidation, he will have brought his office into disrepute.
Snappy Tom @ #815 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 9:40 am
*cough*Hollingworth*cough*
Edit: I see you remembered!
”
kezza2says:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 9:21 am
Taylormade @ #728 Tuesday, June 28th, 2022 – 9:18 pm
Gas bill arrived today.
4.5 times the previous one. Will send it off to Coker in the morning.
That’s strange. I just got my gas bill. It’s almost exactly the same as my last one. In fact it’s $1.24 less than last time.
Do you live in Victoria. If so, the State gov is providing $250 energy relief for every household from July 1.
”
Please don’t show sympathy for turd polishers and muck rakers.
One-time Taylormaid says he/she was working for State government from home and not doing any work and enjoying life. But next time says he/she he works very hard because his/her hard work is paying for our government subsidies. And then within one after this government is elected, he/she wanted 5.1% payrise.
I spotted a credible idea on Palmer Reports as to why today’s hearing was urgent.
In other words, the urgency is a psychological tactic to unsettle the person doing the threatening (on behalf of Trump!) and maximise what they can extract from them.
Victoria @ #813 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 9:28 am
There have been others. Collins, Murkowski, Romney, etc.. Not many, and their days within the GOP are probably numbered, but Cheny isn’t the only one.
Lol Taylormade
Snappy Tom:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 9:43 am
Further to Mavis at 9.27
Given Hurley’s religious claptrap during the Morrison era, is he running second to John Kerr in the ‘worst G-G’ stakes?
____________
[‘Sorry, I forgot about Peter Hollingworth. Such a strange race to the bottom, the ‘worst G-G’ event…’]
Yes, I had Hollingworth in mind too, Hurley lingering at third.
”
Snappy Tomsays:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 9:40 am
Mavis at 9.27
Hurley’s strong vice-regal endorsement via video of “Homes by Howe” is an instance of very poor judgment:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10959955/Governor-General-David-Hurley-fire-Homes-Howe-testimonial-video.html
And that he didn’t anticipate that the building company would not make hay with it further raises questions about his judgment, even his suitability for high office.
____________
Given Hurley’s religious claptrap during the Morrison era, is he running second to John Kerr in the ‘worst G-G’ stakes?
”
What about Hollingworth Who was made GG during Howard PMship.
What I don’t like about GG appointment in Australia is that the serving PM can appoint him/her at his/her will and liking without any scrutiny and nobody can do anything about it. It is like a dictator appointing his crony.
Ven
Sorry you perceived my post that way. I certainly wasn’t being sympathetic. Actually, I was politely calling him a liar if he lived in Victoria.
And rubbing it in by alerting him to the fact the Victorian Labor government is helping with cost of living increases by providing every household in the State, from July 1, with a $250 Power Saving Bonus.
”
Victoriasays:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 9:57 am
Ven
Do you know what was Monique Ryan’s profession before entering politics?
”
I know. That is why I made that earlier comment. 🙂
I just wanted to see what happens if I channel Lars and Nath for a moment.
Privatisation is a crock: https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2022/06/29/michael-pascoe-greed-privatisation-demutualisation/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020220629
”
kezza2says:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 10:16 am
Ven
Sorry you perceived my post that way. I certainly wasn’t being sympathetic. Actually, I was politely calling him a liar if he lived in Victoria.
And rubbing it in by alerting him to the fact the Victorian Labor government is helping with cost of living increases by providing every household in the State, from July 1, with a $250 Power Saving Bonus.
”
There is nothing to be sorry about when it comes to Taylormaid.
Ven: ” It is like a dictator appointing his crony.”
You realize what you’re calling a ‘dictator’ should more appropriately be referred to as “democratically elected leader”, yes?
Alpha Zero says,
“I thought they didn’t comment about “On Water Matters” and broadcast “The Shipping News.”
Apparently there ABC believes we need to know now seeing as the man who ‘stopped the boats’ got thrown out.
Late Riser at 10.02
When your post had ‘credible’ and ‘Palmer’ in the same sentence, I was initially concerned. Upon further reading, I discovered it had nothing to do with ‘Clive’ – I was thus reassured!
Re Ven @10:11. ”What about Hollingworth Who was made GG during Howard PMship.
What I don’t like about GG appointment in Australia is that the serving PM can appoint him/her at his/her will and liking without any scrutiny and nobody can do anything about it. It is like a dictator appointing his crony.”
There’s an obvious argument to be made against the “politicians’ republic” that wasn’t pressed all those years ago. Our Head of State is selected by one person – the Prime Minister – via a process that is opaque and unaccountable. It almost certainly includes political vetting. This is not just to find someone who shares the PM’s values and vision for Australia. Since 1975 when it was clear that the job had real power, the Prime Minister would be careful to avoid anyone who might dismiss them.
A Head of State selected by a super-majority at a joint sitting of the House and Senate would be a great improvement. It would have mostly avoided partisanship in selection. It might have resulted in a parade of worthy but (to the general public) boring incumbents, so maybe no one would have noticed once things settled down.
Steve777: “It would have mostly avoided partisanship in selection.”
As long as the murdoch press lies with impunity, this will never happen. It would be just another avenue under which the ALP would be attacked, and if the ALP was in government there would be a permanent wail from that quarter for the dismissal of the ALP government.
Steve777 at 10.34
There’s an obvious argument to be made against the “politicians’ republic” that wasn’t pressed all those years ago. Our Head of State is selected by one person – the Prime Minister – via a process that is opaque and unaccountable.
___________
The 1999 Republic ‘Yes’ campaign was about as effective as the UK ‘Remain’ campaign! We might complete the trifecta of ‘worst campaigns eva’ with any of Hewson 93, Hillary 16 or Shorten 19…
Which are the three worst campaigns in living memory?
Snappy Tom @ #844 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 10:42 am
Hillary 2024?
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/28/politics/hillary-clinton-2024/index.html
Snappy Tom @ #662 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 10:42 am
Morrison 2022 😐
Re Snappy Tom @9:55 (size of Parliament)
Then there’s the “cube root rule”, an observation in political science that the number of members of a unicameral legislature, or the lower house of a bicameral legislature, tends to approximate the cube root of the population being represented.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cube_root_rule
On that basis, allowing room for a bit of population growth, we would double the size of the House to about 300. The Constitution would then require about 150 Senators, maybe 23 for each State and 6 each for each Territory.
Snappy Tom @ #840 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 10:34 am
Haha. Understandable. 😉 I find much of Palmer Reports “gossipy” and all of it is repetitive. But the host of the eponymous “Palmer Reports” does a decent job of explaining “how things work”. I mostly ignore the other contributors. In some ways he’s like #PRGuy in getting a message across.
Worst campaign?
If results a guide WA Liberals 2021.
Why would Australia have 300 HOR members, when the USA (14 times bigger) has 435?
Second strike from the G-G (the first being the lobbying of the government for funding for a charity). Frankly, I don’t think somebody of such high office should need to get to 3 strikes before they are out, they should be beyond reproach. Albo should sack him.
C@tmomma @ #844 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 10:48 am
Latham ’04?
McMahon ’72?
Turnbull ’16?
So much choice. Although if we’re including state-level, Peter Debnam in NSW 2007 has to be up there.