Click here for full federal election results updated live.
10.39pm. My system’s call of Durack as “ALP ahead” is a puzzle to me. Neither Nine or the ABC thinks so. Perhaps this is because we have different ways of processing an extraordinary result at the large Broome pre-poll voting centre, which looks to me like a 30% swing to Labor. I’ll be interesting to see what happens when it reports its two-candidate preferred numbers.
10.22pm. Now that the mad rush is past, if you’ve been enjoying my live results, perhaps you make care to make a small contribution through the “become a supporter” button at the top of the page. Not that its work is done by any stretch – it will continue to chalk up new results and maintain projections and probability estimates over the fortnight to come.
10.07pm. Having worked out what was wrong with them, I’ve now restored the aggregated national and state two-party preferred projections to the results display, which suggest Labor will win the two-party preferred by around 52-48. This may inflate a bit as the Western Australian count catches up with the rest of the country, but it might also do unpredictable things as pre-polls and postals come in, as indeed may the seat totals.
9.54pm. My system has Labor ahead in 77 seats, but it’s still treating Brisbane as a Labor-versus-LNP contest when there’s a high probability that Labor will actually finish third and the seat will be one of what could be as many as five Greens seats.
8.31pm. The AEC have, as they say in the trade, declared Calare and Cowper “mavericks”, which is to say acknowledged they have picked the wrong candidates for the two-candidate preferred count and withdrawn those results. Quite a few more will follow. I’m pleased to say this hasn’t made my results pages fall over, which are now projecting them properly as Nationals-versus-independents races with TCP results based on my estimates. Cowper is merely down as “NAT AHEAD”, but this is because I apply a wide margin of error in these cases – I’m in little doubt they will ultimately win the seat.
8.10pm. I’ve now done a manual override to make Ryan a Greens-versus-LNP contest, as I did earlier with Griffith. To be clear, there’s a lot of seats where I should be doing this sort of thing, but it’s a somewhat delicate operation and I’m unable to devote my full attention to this.
7.53pm. My system is calling Bradfield for Labor because, I am quite sure, they have entered Labor and Liberal the wrong way around for TCP in the North Wahroonga booth. I expect this to get drowned out as more votes are added.
7.41pm. There are a number of issues with seats where the AEC has picked the wrong candidates, notably Griffith and Ryan, which it would be nice if I had time to attend to which isn’t available to me. I’ve bitten the bullet though and added an override in Griffith which makes Labor finish third and their preferences decide the seat in the Greens.
6.41pm. I’ve had to pull by aggregated two-party preferred projections – there are issues with them that I’ll be too busy to address. Everything else is working as it should though.
6pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the federal election count. My coverage will basically consist of the above link – I am unlikely to have much to offer this evening in the way of blow-by-blow commentary of the count, which will be in ample supply elsewhere. My comments will be probably be restricted for the most part to pointing out bugs and errors in my live results facility, which I don’t doubt there will be. Though I’ll start with the curious fact that the Norfolk Island booth, in the ACT seat of Bean, was already in before polls closed on the eastern seaboard.
As you can see from the link though, the live results feature should have a huge amount to offer even in imperfect form – still more so now that the style sheet has been expertly pimped by new-found friend of the site Steven Tan. The link above opens to a landing page that summarises the current state of the count in all 151 seats, and includes national and two-party preferred projections that I dearly hope end up doing their job.
Further down are links to individual results pages for every seat including projections of the final two-party result and win probability estimates, a table of booth results encompassing two-candidate preferred and the primary vote with tabs allowing you to toggle between raw votes, percentages and swings. Unless the Australian Electoral Commission and other media outlets have changed their practices, I believe this will be the only place on the internet where booth results will be available for most of this evening. At the bottom is a button which, if clicked, opens a booth results map with colour-coded dots and numbers pointing to the results of each booth that you can click on for a full set of results.
Obviously this involved a good deal of effort, so if you find the effort useful or admirable in any way, please consider making a contribution to the upkeep of the site using the “become a supporter” link at the top of this page, or the “become a supporter” button to be found on the top right of each page of the results pages.
Big shift in Sportsbet betting with ALP into 1.25. LNP 3.40
Will the result tonight mean that Labor will have to (at least) work with the Greens?
To me, it seems we might have to.
Bludging?
Has Tanya been on the gear? She seems a bit muted
When will the pre-poll and absent votes be counted? Tonight?
Labor smashing it in Chisholm. This election is defined by the variability of the swings
Leichhardt was at 99% LNP win on PB, now down to 82%. Expect it to keep going down for a bit. Still think LNP will take it, but definitely more competitive than early numbers indicated.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens with pre-poll votes. Given the polling indicated that the late undecideds broke to the Libs (and based on the current numbers, ‘OTH’), it seems like the pre-polls would have to favour Labor. (If you were undecided you’d be unlikely to vote early.)
Channel 10, Deakin and Sukkar down, only 10% counted.
Mr Squiggle @ #701 Saturday, May 21st, 2022 – 8:18 pm
She is just incredibly nervous during elections, as she often says.
Sturt looks in trouble for the libs so far
Labor plus Greens is the dream team
Burgey, most prepolls tonight (excluding out of electorate prepolls). Absent next week. Postals in dribs in drabs.
I think the message from this election is clear:
Australia has become a lot more left wing.
And I LOVE IT
The lib/nats combined primary vote is 35% You wonder what the Liberal party primary vote is
it would be close in the low 20’s
Chisholm and Reid won If Labor loses Fowler and Gilmore they’re still on 69. Take out Griffith to Green = 68. Add in Brisbane, Higgins and Boothby is 71 Hopefully 2 extra in WA. Robertson and Bennelong are close but they could get the ALP to 75. Deakin also in the mix With Ryan a likely Green gain Labor will only need to get to 72 in order to get the support of the 3 Greens plus Wilkie. Labor minority government looks most likely at the moment
Sukkar looks gone wooohooo………. Josh gone…… spud maybe……
Michelle Rowland retains Greenway with an increased margin and a 7.7% swing back towards her.
Admit i’m shocked, thought it’d be reduced to under 1%
I don’t wanna jinx anything so sticking with the Crows game
If Dutton’s turfed – and it’s by no means certain (I actually think he’ll get over the line) – I could probably live with Labor failing to gain a majority, and add to that Wilson, and to a lesser degree Sharma. The only thing that appears to be sure is that the polls have failed once again. Having said that, I wouldn’t at this stage write Labor off due to the unprecedented number of postal and prepolls – the final result may not be known for a fortnight. I’d add, congratulations to the Greens; they’ve polled very well.
Pre-poll/absent is tonight, just waiting on the big metro booths too
Casey looking good too. The state by state variation is insanely weird
You can see it now, attacks from the media about the majors saying that they would not form a government with minorities… the lies and it will not look good. Yep we need a Royal Commission into the media after the election.
Victorian seats tipping to Labor
Chisholm
Higgins
Deakin
Casey
May all fall according to Chris Uhlmann
So the polls are wrong again!
Richmond is fascinating. Nats currently third, but that 25% “other” vote (mostly right-wing freaks) would surely favour them.
If the Nats make the top two, then they’ll lose to either Labor or the Greens.
If the Nats stay third, get the popcorn. Has there ever been an ALP/Green count in a regional seat before?
I think Labor might prefer to work with the teals in terms of looking more centrist.
So far it’s just hard to see the libs forming a government. They are losing too many seats imo
I will concede again i would never though the majority parties would both have this low primary vote
That big unit from Newy is home and hosed, with a swing.
Betting companies just dropped odds from 1.5 to 1.2
Is this the future of politics in AUS? If so I can be happy. Anything to keep the LNP out.
A few observations / thoughtx
– It’s a bit of a worry that One Nation and Palmists are each getting about 5% of the vote. About 10% of Australians are apparently idiots, racists or both
– The polls were wrong – again
– Our Green colleagues should be happy
– Very difficult to see where this goes
– We won’t get a result tonight, possibly not next week.
The Greens have polled well because of CLIMATE CHANGE, it is getting worse and we need action. People are waking up that their future is not certain, the beachs are eroding, the temperatures warming, disasters increasing and insurance is increasing big.
mj @ #723 Saturday, May 21st, 2022 – 8:21 pm
Absolutely. Surely no ALP supporters on here are entertaining a Greens alliance/coalition
Fiona Martin is toast! Gotta love that!
Were polls wrong? What was margin of error ?
74 seats to Labor at the moment based on who is in front (assuming Labor loses Fowler).
So its a coalition with the Greens – but what terms will the Greens ask for ?
I wonder if the voters currently being counted resemble the LNP high water mark due to the sugar hit he may have got from the smoke and mirrors super house deposit announcement. I wonder if the massive percentage of pre poll to be counted that were casted before the LNP campaign launch is a veritable horror show awaiting them ?
Jane Hume is “disappointed” the “Dan Andrews effect” didn’t materialise
Looks like Lucy Wicks in Robertson is GORN!
Yes looks like a hung parliament to the greens, Hopefully labor doesn’t do anything silly with leadership under those conditions.
I said years ago that labor should have tried out flanking the greens on the left. But oh well.
Tip of the hat to mundo and firefox for their wins.
It does look like the greens heartland is moving to Melbourne out of Tassie, so that’ll be interesting for tassie politics.
Liberals wiped out in Melbourne.
Listening to Antony Green…
2pp goes out of the window
Possibly a good thing
C@t: Robertson looks good for Labor
Labor ahead in Reid, Labor gain, Antony just called it. Parramatta Labor will hold. Robertson, Labor gain. Is that your seat Cat?!
Labor is doing well in its target seats bar Tasmania. Boothby seems close.
I do wonder how prepoll will go considering Labor seemed to be further ahead in the polls during that period, however I wouldn’t believe them based on this result
Was it Bree that proclaimed that Parramatta would fall to the Libs?
Get in the bin Bree.
Labor just behind in Bennelong.
Thanks all!
Will be interesting if they behave in a different way to election day votes.
Menzies close…
Yay! Big Dan has socked it to Barnaby and Canavan. Good to be in Hunter.
A coaltion with the Greens and Murdoch will hang Labor next time. Must have a Royal Commission into the media.