Federal election live

Live commentary and discussion of the election night count for the 2022 federal election.

Click here for full federal election results updated live.

10.39pm. My system’s call of Durack as “ALP ahead” is a puzzle to me. Neither Nine or the ABC thinks so. Perhaps this is because we have different ways of processing an extraordinary result at the large Broome pre-poll voting centre, which looks to me like a 30% swing to Labor. I’ll be interesting to see what happens when it reports its two-candidate preferred numbers.

10.22pm. Now that the mad rush is past, if you’ve been enjoying my live results, perhaps you make care to make a small contribution through the “become a supporter” button at the top of the page. Not that its work is done by any stretch – it will continue to chalk up new results and maintain projections and probability estimates over the fortnight to come.

10.07pm. Having worked out what was wrong with them, I’ve now restored the aggregated national and state two-party preferred projections to the results display, which suggest Labor will win the two-party preferred by around 52-48. This may inflate a bit as the Western Australian count catches up with the rest of the country, but it might also do unpredictable things as pre-polls and postals come in, as indeed may the seat totals.

9.54pm. My system has Labor ahead in 77 seats, but it’s still treating Brisbane as a Labor-versus-LNP contest when there’s a high probability that Labor will actually finish third and the seat will be one of what could be as many as five Greens seats.

8.31pm. The AEC have, as they say in the trade, declared Calare and Cowper “mavericks”, which is to say acknowledged they have picked the wrong candidates for the two-candidate preferred count and withdrawn those results. Quite a few more will follow. I’m pleased to say this hasn’t made my results pages fall over, which are now projecting them properly as Nationals-versus-independents races with TCP results based on my estimates. Cowper is merely down as “NAT AHEAD”, but this is because I apply a wide margin of error in these cases – I’m in little doubt they will ultimately win the seat.

8.10pm. I’ve now done a manual override to make Ryan a Greens-versus-LNP contest, as I did earlier with Griffith. To be clear, there’s a lot of seats where I should be doing this sort of thing, but it’s a somewhat delicate operation and I’m unable to devote my full attention to this.

7.53pm. My system is calling Bradfield for Labor because, I am quite sure, they have entered Labor and Liberal the wrong way around for TCP in the North Wahroonga booth. I expect this to get drowned out as more votes are added.

7.41pm. There are a number of issues with seats where the AEC has picked the wrong candidates, notably Griffith and Ryan, which it would be nice if I had time to attend to which isn’t available to me. I’ve bitten the bullet though and added an override in Griffith which makes Labor finish third and their preferences decide the seat in the Greens.

6.41pm. I’ve had to pull by aggregated two-party preferred projections – there are issues with them that I’ll be too busy to address. Everything else is working as it should though.

6pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the federal election count. My coverage will basically consist of the above link – I am unlikely to have much to offer this evening in the way of blow-by-blow commentary of the count, which will be in ample supply elsewhere. My comments will be probably be restricted for the most part to pointing out bugs and errors in my live results facility, which I don’t doubt there will be. Though I’ll start with the curious fact that the Norfolk Island booth, in the ACT seat of Bean, was already in before polls closed on the eastern seaboard.

As you can see from the link though, the live results feature should have a huge amount to offer even in imperfect form – still more so now that the style sheet has been expertly pimped by new-found friend of the site Steven Tan. The link above opens to a landing page that summarises the current state of the count in all 151 seats, and includes national and two-party preferred projections that I dearly hope end up doing their job.

Further down are links to individual results pages for every seat including projections of the final two-party result and win probability estimates, a table of booth results encompassing two-candidate preferred and the primary vote with tabs allowing you to toggle between raw votes, percentages and swings. Unless the Australian Electoral Commission and other media outlets have changed their practices, I believe this will be the only place on the internet where booth results will be available for most of this evening. At the bottom is a button which, if clicked, opens a booth results map with colour-coded dots and numbers pointing to the results of each booth that you can click on for a full set of results.

Obviously this involved a good deal of effort, so if you find the effort useful or admirable in any way, please consider making a contribution to the upkeep of the site using the “become a supporter” link at the top of this page, or the “become a supporter” button to be found on the top right of each page of the results pages.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,489 comments on “Federal election live”

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  11. Just voted at Highgate PS (Perth). HTV people from the big three parties, plus the Federation Party candidate, the Democrats (they still exist?), LDP (big poster about gun rights) and Aus Christians. Line was out onto the footpath – half hour wait to vote, and apparently it’d been an hour and a half earlier on. Sausage sizzle was done by 3pm – I guess they ran out. I wouldn’t be surprised if that booth cracks 5000 votes, if it was like that all day.

  26. Hey William. Last paragraph of the main post:

    (…), or the BLAH button to be found on the top right of each page of the results pages.

  39. We’re watching Bluey while I try to split attention between Poll Bludger and the family. Election TV later in the night maybe.

    Last minute buoyed by a conversation with a distant rel in this seat who voted for Abbott in 2013 and this time said she would have had a sign for Monique Ryan in her yard if her husband hadn’t cracked the shits about it.

  40. Confessions says:
    Saturday, May 21, 2022 at 6:06 pm
    sprocket_ @ #NaN Saturday, May 21st, 2022 – 6:05 pm

    EXIT POLL indicates IND wins in
    Wentworth
    Nth Sydney
    Goldstein
    If only!

    Prefacing the wholesale destruction of the Lying Reactionaries today.

  41. Finally got to my quiet little primary school in the far east of Higgins at 5.20pm. No queues – hardly any voters about for that matter, HTV people out the front all chatting politely to each other, sausage sizzle long gone, no vibe to pickup either. The HTV people look animated for the sake of moving stiffening muscles I think. And now the wait begins – I exhausted all feasible options on the Senate paper after #20

  42. Coalition into $3 on Sportsbet.

    There is a roughly one in three chance of Morrison Government being re-elected at this point.

  43. It must be private exit polling Yabsley has, was about 1 hour ago

    He was NSW Liberal Party Treasurer – a Moderate

  47. Good evening William and everyone else.
    Gosh, the Teals taking Goldstein, Wentworth and Nth Sydney would be bad for Morrison.
    Fellow members of the Poll Bludger Blokes Pissup Club – rip in lads

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