Click here for full federal election results updated live.
10.39pm. My system’s call of Durack as “ALP ahead” is a puzzle to me. Neither Nine or the ABC thinks so. Perhaps this is because we have different ways of processing an extraordinary result at the large Broome pre-poll voting centre, which looks to me like a 30% swing to Labor. I’ll be interesting to see what happens when it reports its two-candidate preferred numbers.
10.22pm. Now that the mad rush is past, if you’ve been enjoying my live results, perhaps you make care to make a small contribution through the “become a supporter” button at the top of the page. Not that its work is done by any stretch – it will continue to chalk up new results and maintain projections and probability estimates over the fortnight to come.
10.07pm. Having worked out what was wrong with them, I’ve now restored the aggregated national and state two-party preferred projections to the results display, which suggest Labor will win the two-party preferred by around 52-48. This may inflate a bit as the Western Australian count catches up with the rest of the country, but it might also do unpredictable things as pre-polls and postals come in, as indeed may the seat totals.
9.54pm. My system has Labor ahead in 77 seats, but it’s still treating Brisbane as a Labor-versus-LNP contest when there’s a high probability that Labor will actually finish third and the seat will be one of what could be as many as five Greens seats.
8.31pm. The AEC have, as they say in the trade, declared Calare and Cowper “mavericks”, which is to say acknowledged they have picked the wrong candidates for the two-candidate preferred count and withdrawn those results. Quite a few more will follow. I’m pleased to say this hasn’t made my results pages fall over, which are now projecting them properly as Nationals-versus-independents races with TCP results based on my estimates. Cowper is merely down as “NAT AHEAD”, but this is because I apply a wide margin of error in these cases – I’m in little doubt they will ultimately win the seat.
8.10pm. I’ve now done a manual override to make Ryan a Greens-versus-LNP contest, as I did earlier with Griffith. To be clear, there’s a lot of seats where I should be doing this sort of thing, but it’s a somewhat delicate operation and I’m unable to devote my full attention to this.
7.53pm. My system is calling Bradfield for Labor because, I am quite sure, they have entered Labor and Liberal the wrong way around for TCP in the North Wahroonga booth. I expect this to get drowned out as more votes are added.
7.41pm. There are a number of issues with seats where the AEC has picked the wrong candidates, notably Griffith and Ryan, which it would be nice if I had time to attend to which isn’t available to me. I’ve bitten the bullet though and added an override in Griffith which makes Labor finish third and their preferences decide the seat in the Greens.
6.41pm. I’ve had to pull by aggregated two-party preferred projections – there are issues with them that I’ll be too busy to address. Everything else is working as it should though.
6pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the federal election count. My coverage will basically consist of the above link – I am unlikely to have much to offer this evening in the way of blow-by-blow commentary of the count, which will be in ample supply elsewhere. My comments will be probably be restricted for the most part to pointing out bugs and errors in my live results facility, which I don’t doubt there will be. Though I’ll start with the curious fact that the Norfolk Island booth, in the ACT seat of Bean, was already in before polls closed on the eastern seaboard.
As you can see from the link though, the live results feature should have a huge amount to offer even in imperfect form – still more so now that the style sheet has been expertly pimped by new-found friend of the site Steven Tan. The link above opens to a landing page that summarises the current state of the count in all 151 seats, and includes national and two-party preferred projections that I dearly hope end up doing their job.
Further down are links to individual results pages for every seat including projections of the final two-party result and win probability estimates, a table of booth results encompassing two-candidate preferred and the primary vote with tabs allowing you to toggle between raw votes, percentages and swings. Unless the Australian Electoral Commission and other media outlets have changed their practices, I believe this will be the only place on the internet where booth results will be available for most of this evening. At the bottom is a button which, if clicked, opens a booth results map with colour-coded dots and numbers pointing to the results of each booth that you can click on for a full set of results.
Obviously this involved a good deal of effort, so if you find the effort useful or admirable in any way, please consider making a contribution to the upkeep of the site using the “become a supporter” link at the top of this page, or the “become a supporter” button to be found on the top right of each page of the results pages.
Respect to Grace Tame
Lib stranglehold on WA = Gawn
Whole thing rearranged.
Its still only QLD thats Labors problem state.
Grace Tame’s twitter is pretty great at the moment. Very cathartic.
I think Labor will eventually win Brisbane but it will be very close, if I am right Labor will have won a QLD LNP seat.
Scott from Adelaide
Ben Morton spent the whole campaign shadowing Scomo. I assume this was so he could learn how to be an ‘excellent’ campaigner for a future run at PM.
Sadly he seems to have forgotten to impart the lesson about needing to win your own seat first…
Interesting the polling and goss on here was Wyatt holding against a lacklustre campaign in Hasluck. Result very different.
Good riddance to Morton.
“Grace Tame’s twitter is pretty great at the moment. Very cathartic.”
https://twitter.com/tamepunk
AE,
maybe, I reckon a decent whack of that 20% swing is down to Keneally. Perhaps the manner of her preselection reinforced pre-existing perceptions.
“JayC says:
Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 1:34 am
While a loss to Morrison is a wonderful thing.
The best part of my night was my 13 year old trans daughter watching the votes come in. She cried when it was clear Morrison had lost the election and Deves didn’t win her seat. She again feels supported by her community.
Thankyou to all who helped”
+1
@Dave, you are right. I do not have the life achievements of Charlton. Alas I am not the member for Parramatta elect. I am not knocking the bloke or his life skills and achievements. I am knocking the process where candidates are parachuted in. It might (and I hope not) cost Labor outright majority given the loss of Fowler (which should have been an easy gain) and it could have been different in Parra if the Libs were more organised and had a local active candidate. But they didn’t so that’s great for Labor.
It would be good for some candidates, if they have star quality, and must be imposed, to have a go at a marginal seat held by the other side every so often. Then we can really see their life skills and achievements in action as they sweep to power.
I am glad he won. I want a Labor Government. My family needs a Labor Government. I just hope he is a good representative for Parra, Labor and the nation as I am sure he will be.
Grace tame, Brittany Higgins and every single other woman who has had to put up with this wretched, grotesque excuse for a govt. deserves this result. I know my vote was for them, and my partner, my mum, my MIL and every other woman i know who expressed their disgust at smirking, evil monster who was our leader for the last few years. (which was literally every woman i know).
Here! here! Maybe it’s the bottle of wine and half bottle of whisky talking.
Sky News Chris Kenny reporting live from the ALP VICTORY party.
52-48 on ABC!
Growing by the minute.
@Ceej
I really agree. Australia needs to take a leadership role in establishing the rights and protections of women. Especially given that those rights and protections are being eroded in other countries like the US.
Ceej @ #2431 Sunday, May 22nd, 2022 – 2:03 am
Postals will probably dampen it a bit.
ALP primary vote continues to increase and now at 32.8% – reckon will end up close to 34% by end of count.
I saw the ABC have a brief go and analysis of the vote in large mandarin speaking electorates. Apart from the usual scaremongering which will come from News Corp/Channel 9 I hope that both sides can tone down some of the rhetoric on China more generally. The debate is degenerate at times. It will be interesting to see if there was a concerted shift to the ALP in these areas.
@Biltong
On the money. My other half has developed a strong friendship with a small group of other women in the US, and the development of the deep split in the US partisanship, is particularly scary.
We have an incredibly strong group of female leaders in this country, that we should be incredibly proud of, and encouraging into leadership positions. Not to denigrate those men that are deserving, but there are plenty that aren’t.
True re: postals.
I am feeling worn out. Worn out from the pandemic and four years of Morrison and nine years of Coalition Government – a ‘lost decade’ for our country.
Back to work in Covidland in not many hours but I can’t sleep – winning government back from opposition is a rare event and needs to be savoured and remembered.
I sensed the tide turning in the count starting around 715-730pm, hence my early call at 743pm.
Hoping for a majority, but I always said I’d take 73 and the barest minority government.
Somewhat ironic that the TPP is now 52.8/47.2 – creeping ever closer to 53/47 as the polls said.
Gilmore update: Fiona Philips has made a dramatic comeback and has established a roughly 1300 vote lead over challenger Andrew Constance
Fantastic update @leftiebrawler
Go ms phillips
Wow that swing in WA (~10%+).
Cheers wran, it truely is a Christmas miracle for the hardest working local MP in the parliament, Fiona Philips.
She’s closing in on 1400 now!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/gilm
ICAC NOW! LOOKING FORWARD TO THE LAST 9 YEARS BEING LOOKED AT. ABOUT TIME. ICAC WILL NEED A LOT OF FUNDING TO GET TO EVEN SOME OF THE CORRUPTION….
So excited for a good ICAC.
If that alone is Albo’s legacy it will have been worth it.
I think that postal votes in this election will not follow the normal flows due to the number of covid cases. But how it ends up i have no idea.
How long before the Liberals try to remove the compulsory preferential system? Will they go to an election with it under the guise of “freedom”.
@Rocket Rod 52.0-48.0 according to the ABC pv 32.8% WA aside pretty underwhelming really for Labor, not much fat on the bone there if they are fighting the next election in a recession which they might have to due to forces beyond their control.
Big night for greens and soft Tories that is where all the energy is at the moment, horror show for the hard right.Good night for me on the punt, glad I didn’t get greedy and go for 1.90 Labor majority as they might not get there.Oh and The Greens got 12.8% in my seat I was pleased with that.
Voodoo, Labor majority government or near enough. 3 Years with the power of government ahead of it. There is only one ultimate winner this election
@ Revisionist
Very true but I need to have a good look at the results seat by seat in the cold light of day before drawing any conclusions about how robust it is.
It was a good result in my seat though, I thought the UAP Hanson vote would be much bigger and The Tories might win it but the 2pp is 56 -44 and the Green vote is up 3.8 Hanson down over 6 and Palmer only up 3 Labor up over 4.
New thread.
Royal Commission into barnyard’s texts incoming in 3… 2… 1… 😆
B. S. Fairman @ #2410 Sunday, May 22nd, 2022 – 1:41 am
What does Parramatta show?
BREAKING: Coalition government decimated by Labor and independents at 2022 Federal election, ICAC to finish the job #BinNight #ICAC
Thanks PollBludger for your magnificent contribution. I am delighted to support with $.
Aw.
“Anthony has … a capacity to look beyond the party political alignment,” said Robert Tickner, a former Labor member who took the teenage Albanese’s call about his mother’s stove.
“(He) believes in this idea that there are people of good will in the community,” Tickner said in a phone interview. “He’s not someone who’s a sectarian.”