Click here for full federal election results updated live.
10.39pm. My system’s call of Durack as “ALP ahead” is a puzzle to me. Neither Nine or the ABC thinks so. Perhaps this is because we have different ways of processing an extraordinary result at the large Broome pre-poll voting centre, which looks to me like a 30% swing to Labor. I’ll be interesting to see what happens when it reports its two-candidate preferred numbers.
10.22pm. Now that the mad rush is past, if you’ve been enjoying my live results, perhaps you make care to make a small contribution through the “become a supporter” button at the top of the page. Not that its work is done by any stretch – it will continue to chalk up new results and maintain projections and probability estimates over the fortnight to come.
10.07pm. Having worked out what was wrong with them, I’ve now restored the aggregated national and state two-party preferred projections to the results display, which suggest Labor will win the two-party preferred by around 52-48. This may inflate a bit as the Western Australian count catches up with the rest of the country, but it might also do unpredictable things as pre-polls and postals come in, as indeed may the seat totals.
9.54pm. My system has Labor ahead in 77 seats, but it’s still treating Brisbane as a Labor-versus-LNP contest when there’s a high probability that Labor will actually finish third and the seat will be one of what could be as many as five Greens seats.
8.31pm. The AEC have, as they say in the trade, declared Calare and Cowper “mavericks”, which is to say acknowledged they have picked the wrong candidates for the two-candidate preferred count and withdrawn those results. Quite a few more will follow. I’m pleased to say this hasn’t made my results pages fall over, which are now projecting them properly as Nationals-versus-independents races with TCP results based on my estimates. Cowper is merely down as “NAT AHEAD”, but this is because I apply a wide margin of error in these cases – I’m in little doubt they will ultimately win the seat.
8.10pm. I’ve now done a manual override to make Ryan a Greens-versus-LNP contest, as I did earlier with Griffith. To be clear, there’s a lot of seats where I should be doing this sort of thing, but it’s a somewhat delicate operation and I’m unable to devote my full attention to this.
7.53pm. My system is calling Bradfield for Labor because, I am quite sure, they have entered Labor and Liberal the wrong way around for TCP in the North Wahroonga booth. I expect this to get drowned out as more votes are added.
7.41pm. There are a number of issues with seats where the AEC has picked the wrong candidates, notably Griffith and Ryan, which it would be nice if I had time to attend to which isn’t available to me. I’ve bitten the bullet though and added an override in Griffith which makes Labor finish third and their preferences decide the seat in the Greens.
6.41pm. I’ve had to pull by aggregated two-party preferred projections – there are issues with them that I’ll be too busy to address. Everything else is working as it should though.
6pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the federal election count. My coverage will basically consist of the above link – I am unlikely to have much to offer this evening in the way of blow-by-blow commentary of the count, which will be in ample supply elsewhere. My comments will be probably be restricted for the most part to pointing out bugs and errors in my live results facility, which I don’t doubt there will be. Though I’ll start with the curious fact that the Norfolk Island booth, in the ACT seat of Bean, was already in before polls closed on the eastern seaboard.
As you can see from the link though, the live results feature should have a huge amount to offer even in imperfect form – still more so now that the style sheet has been expertly pimped by new-found friend of the site Steven Tan. The link above opens to a landing page that summarises the current state of the count in all 151 seats, and includes national and two-party preferred projections that I dearly hope end up doing their job.
Further down are links to individual results pages for every seat including projections of the final two-party result and win probability estimates, a table of booth results encompassing two-candidate preferred and the primary vote with tabs allowing you to toggle between raw votes, percentages and swings. Unless the Australian Electoral Commission and other media outlets have changed their practices, I believe this will be the only place on the internet where booth results will be available for most of this evening. At the bottom is a button which, if clicked, opens a booth results map with colour-coded dots and numbers pointing to the results of each booth that you can click on for a full set of results.
Obviously this involved a good deal of effort, so if you find the effort useful or admirable in any way, please consider making a contribution to the upkeep of the site using the “become a supporter” link at the top of this page, or the “become a supporter” button to be found on the top right of each page of the results pages.
While a loss to Morrison is a wonderful thing.
The best part of my night was my 13 year old trans daughter watching the votes come in. She cried when it was clear Morrison had lost the election and Deves didn’t win her seat. She again feels supported by her community.
Thankyou to all who helped
LABOR TO FORM GOVERNMENT
‘The Australian people have voted for change’: Albanese claims victory
Labor leader Anthony Albanese has claimed victory in an extraordinary federal election that has swept the Coalition out of power while vaulting independent candidates into parliament to create a more powerful crossbench to negotiate with the new government.
Albanese is on track to form government with a narrow majority after seizing ground from the Liberals across eastern states and storming home in Western Australia late on election night.
“My Labor team will work every day to bring Australians together.
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“And I will lead a government worthy of the people of Australia – a government as courageous and hardworking and caring as the Australian people are themselves.”
The backlash against the Liberals decimated the moderate wing of the party as independent candidates, all women, drove Liberals out of the party’s most prestigious seats in major cities.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/independents-minor-parties-splinter-vote-in-the-heartland-20220519-p5amoq.html
@JayC.
1000%
Great post.
@Tricot
I’m glad I’ve got a commie like you to belly laugh.
Albo has no identifiable policy agenda. It was simply “I’m not Morrison”. Sure, Morrison won’t be missed, but that’s not enough to run the country.
The loose unit will have Penny destroying our international relations including the Aukus deal. He will have Chalmers repeating talking points about quality spending whilst he trebles the debt to $3 trillion. He will have woefully incompetent Linda Burney martial support for the Uluru statement-from-the-heart to destroy the constitution. He will have Tanya blithering about nonsense on Alan Jones. Shocker to shocker to shocker.
Good luck, loose unit.
A thumping win for common sense. Big reset for the polity of this country.
@generic person why would Foreign Minister Wong blow up the AUKUS deal? Although it might be handy if we could get some subs in a shorter period of time to help out.
God the Copium levels are through the roof right now.
@JayC
Really happy for you and your daughter!
Labor now ahead in Bennelong, 51-49, says the ABC computer.
The days of parachuting candidates into safe seats is over. Fowler shows that. I dare say will won’t see that mistake made qgain by the ALP for a long time.
Does anyone think that the prepolls will be stronger for the ALP?
I know historically it hasn’t been but given results so far which show a deterioration in the Coalition vote.
AlBo hAs nO maNdaTe
@Wranslide:
“ If Labor falls short of majority by one seat and it is Fowler then the General Secretary and party apparatus of NSW ALP should also go as well. Disgraceful decision and was always going to cause issues. It’s a real turd on an otherwise positive night for Labor. And it is sad because these are the communities that have stayed true to Labor for so many years and deserved a local Labor MP in Govt finally!”
As much as I’d like to see the back of Bob Nanva, the decision to endorse KK without a rank and file ballot was made by the National Executive, at Anthony Albanese’s insistence. KK was happy to fight a preselection battle, and in fact if Albo and the party allowed nominations to open before xmas, and KK campaigned for endorsement from the branches over the next 6 months until a rank and file ballot in say March, she might have won it and there then may not have been the backlash against her as witnessed yesterday. Or, if she lost a rank and file ballot then whoever the winner was would have gone on to win the seat in the GE comfortably.
Albo made a captain’s call in parramatta and that worked out ok. Some you win, some you lose, I guess. Unless there is a late count miracle, this should end KK’s public career for good you’d think.
Labor will win Bennelong. Terrible candidate for the Libs.
What’s the deal with Richmond and Griffith? Greens win?
How soon before Alex Hawke is cited as reference point 1 for the loss from the Libs in the post election wash up?
B.S.Fairman.
It was over before Labor did it this time around. It was a dumb political decision that I just hope does not cost majority. The Syd south west has been volatile for a bit for NSW Labor.
For all the ALP’s lip service to identity and diversity, it parachutes rich white people into very ethnically diverse electorates. Can’t make that shit up.
Even that Charleton in Parramatta was a joke.
Fake news from Loose Unit Albo
@andrew_earlwood Nanva supported it because he could not deliver Keneally in the Senate. That is a sign of a weak general secretary. Albanese pushed for it (and unfortunately he does have a history of favouring deals and imposing candidates) but it was always a terrible decision. When has Keneally ever won a serious contestable election? Parachuted in all round.
How about you tell us how Morrison’s captains picks went generic loser.
Yeah didn’t think so.
I think people might be missing a bigger long term story here with some of the more affluent surburban results outside of the the super wealthy in sydney.
Mitchel looking like 8% drop for Religious nutbag Hawke, Greenway look like a very easy hold for labor +8-9%, obviosuly big swings throughout the middle ring suburbs in sydney. All of my friends/mates/etc in these areas said that Scomo, Dutton & the Nats were all toxic, like, visceral hatred. If the libs go with dutton, this will not address this at all.
@andrew_earlwood and it’s hard not to get swept up in the happiness of victory tonight (and I am) but Fowler was such an awful shame for the people who rely on Labor governments the most. Just hope the Party does not forget the area and puts heaps of effort into winning it back.
Those south west votes don’t bode well for the state election either.
Credit to Lars who called Fowler as a potential labor L early on and stuck with that call.
Labor will be kicking themselves for attempting to parachute in KK. Safe to say that if a local labor candidate was put forward, Fowler would be a safe retain and possibly even outright majority?
“Fire-Fox, well played to the Greens. I underestimated the support level. Congratulations to you and your party on some stunning results.”
***
Cheers 🙂 It’s a great night for sure and a huge moment for us. Congrats to you and Labor too. Tomorrow is a completely new day for both our parties – for Australia! No more Scomo!!
Generic Person @ #2403 Sunday, May 22nd, 2022 – 1:36 am
Those comments will be laughed at in the near future.
The liberal party talking about debt –
The Scomo/Josh trillion dollar debt is equivalent to $79,000 for every one of the 13 million Australians in the workforce. By comparison the Labor stimulus back in 2008/09 was approximately $2000 per family.
Scomo has done more than morally bankrupt Australia.
when the Liberals took over was $257 billion. Now it is nearly four times larger
Right now comparing the primary votes in the result tracker from the final Bludgertrack primaries, we have:
Coalition +0.5%
ALP -3.5%
Green +0.4%
One Nation +1.0%
Others +1.6%
That One Nation one in particular is a big miss, underestimating a 5.0% vote by 1.0%.
@Ceej
It really feels like a reset in Australian politics. A “circuit-breaker” to stop us following US GOP style politics.
I hope we can continue to avoid that path in the future.
Well at least the poll companies have survived with projected TPP being 52.8-47.2 according to WBs projections.
“ @generic person why would Foreign Minister Wong blow up the AUKUS deal? Although it might be handy if we could get some subs in a shorter period of time to help out.”
The only parties that will blow up the AUKUS deal will be the US and UK, if and when they realise that that the task of assisting us build nuclear subs – or building them for us – is beyond their current capacity and navy requirements. That is almost certainly the case for the British, and the Americans will have to find a way to accomodate Australia’s needs over the next 15 years AND manage the steep requirements the the USN has for as many Virginia class SSN’s as can be built, whilst managing the Ohio class replacement with the Columbia SSBN build that is due to commence soon.
It may be that the Americans would actually find it convenient to effectively subcontract the deal to the French for them to build 2-4 SSNs in Cherbourg over the next 15 years – with Americans combat systems and weapon systems – whilst building up our capabilities to build another 4-8 in Osbourne over a much longer timeframe.
That would solve a lot of headaches all around. Biden’s proliferation concerns. Not having to divert scare resources to the Australian project: or at least share that burden. A potential partnership between the French and Americans for the yanks to acquire French reactor technology for its proposed pivot to LEU technology for the Columbia class. The smoothing of relationships between all three countries. And so on.
“The days of parachuting candidates into safe seats is over. Fowler shows that. I dare say will won’t see that mistake made again by the ALP for a long time.”
Andrew Charlton won with a small swing towards him. The problem is the dud candidate.
GoneMo @ #2412 Sunday, May 22nd, 2022 – 1:42 am
Morrison got a boot up his arse – Thats No Mandate – Its a kick in the date.
I think Labor will just sneak over the line with 76 this time, but it is going to be increasingly difficult for either side to govern in their own right judging by the performance of the Greens and the Teals at this election.
I don’t particularly see that as a problem, and I really hope it ends this ridiculous notion that a hung parliament spells ‘chaos’.
Thanks William, legend.
Took me a while put my hand in my pocket but you are worth every dollar.
And it’s goodnight from him.
“I DON’T HOLD A HOSE MATE”…
@ceej the Libs will have to make a call. A bit similar to Labor in parts where the Greens have gained a foothold and caused a rupture of sorts in the traditional suburban working class seats and the more progressive inner city seats. It’s a hard balance. The Libs could tack hard right and try to pick up the palmer/one nation vote or try to come back to the middle. It’s going to be fun to watch them tie themselves up.
But keep in mind the current independents have only won once. Those seats are still Liberal really. If they dont like the ALP then those seats will swing back hard to the Libs. Think Phelps last time. This was very much about sending a message to Morrison. Is there a longer term trend?
GoneMo @ #2428 Sunday, May 22nd, 2022 – 1:56 am
Correct. Winners are grinners. No one cares about losers.
DIRECT FROM HAWAII
@Biltong (are you the original biltong?)
I just hope that it’s something more than a fleeting thing re: city dwellers turning on their own selfishness. Also thankyou for replying to my msg, took a lot of drinks, an election night, etc. to actually post on here.
7 DAY WAIT AFTER RECORD FLOODS FOR ANY ASSISTANCE EVEN MENTIONED TO COMMUNITIES AFFECTED.
The Biloela family will be altogether again soon.
Am I reading this correctly that the ALP has not picked up any seats in Qld again (may lose a seat to the Greens) but may still get majority government.
Seriously, what is wrong with Queenslanders!
@gonemo nah the Libs also put in an out of area candidate out there. And they put them in very late as well. If Charlton had a local identity like Dai Let (long time candidate and ingrained in the community) then it would have been a different result in Parra in my opinion. Charlton did not have the baggage of Keneally but he also didn’t have a quality and long term campaigning candidate against him either thanks to Hawke and ExPM. But it’s his seat now so best of luck to him but he is not an exemplar that the model works.
Dave, I’m grinning. I consider Keneally losing a positive for Labor. I reckon Tu Le would have won the seat.
“ For all the ALP’s lip service to identity and diversity, it parachutes rich white people into very ethnically diverse electorates. Can’t make that shit up.”
On the other hand, Sally Sitou had a strong win in ethnically diverse Reid. An aboriginal candidate won Robertson – which is a bit … white bread. Whereas Linda Burnie, a proud Wiradjuri woman won ethnically diverse Barton, with another 6% swing to her (that must make something like a 17% swing to her over three election cycles). An indigenous woman from the Tiwi Islands seems to have secured enough support from both mainland aboriginal communities (which are themselves extremely diverse in nature and range from CA to the top end) and the broader community in the NT bush to take over from Warren Snowden. Also, two Muslim sitting MPs – and a woman with Indian heritage – all managed to expand their margins considerably for Labor.
So … me thinks you are just talking shit. Trying to gaslight Labor out of enjoying what is a truly historic achievement tonight. me thinks you can go and get royally fucked.
Frydenburg got towelled up real bad. Good riddance.
Kirky
QLDers are so backward. Anyway Labor have 3 yrs to work on them.
“ Dave, I’m grinning. I consider Keneally losing a positive for Labor. I reckon Tu Le would have won the seat”
I reckon whoever was the labor candidate would have won by a massive margin if they had been preselected by a rank and file ballot. Even KK. It was the arrogance of the federal intervention that done Labor in in this seat.
WE SURVIVED LOCKDOWN AS BEST WE COULD WHILE YOU WERE JUST INSENSITIVE GOOSES.
#FRYTHEPLANET
Are the Greens actually going to win seats in Qld like Griffith and Brisbane?
Wranslide @ #2440 Sunday, May 22nd, 2022 – 2:02 am
Lets see how these comments age.
Do you have anything like his life achievements ?
“ @gonemo nah the Libs also put in an out of area candidate out there. And they put them in very late as well. If Charlton had a local identity like Dai Let (long time candidate and ingrained in the community) then it would have been a different result in Parra in my opinion. Charlton did not have the baggage of Keneally but he also didn’t have a quality and long term campaigning candidate against him either thanks to Hawke and ExPM. But it’s his seat now so best of luck to him but he is not an exemplar that the model works.”
Agreed. labor would do well to avoid this stunting shit in the future.
Wranslide,
parachuting someone in and them winning the seat is an example of how parachuting someone in can work though. I reckon if Keneally was in Parramatta she would have lost that too.