Click here for full federal election results updated live.
10.39pm. My system’s call of Durack as “ALP ahead” is a puzzle to me. Neither Nine or the ABC thinks so. Perhaps this is because we have different ways of processing an extraordinary result at the large Broome pre-poll voting centre, which looks to me like a 30% swing to Labor. I’ll be interesting to see what happens when it reports its two-candidate preferred numbers.
10.22pm. Now that the mad rush is past, if you’ve been enjoying my live results, perhaps you make care to make a small contribution through the “become a supporter” button at the top of the page. Not that its work is done by any stretch – it will continue to chalk up new results and maintain projections and probability estimates over the fortnight to come.
10.07pm. Having worked out what was wrong with them, I’ve now restored the aggregated national and state two-party preferred projections to the results display, which suggest Labor will win the two-party preferred by around 52-48. This may inflate a bit as the Western Australian count catches up with the rest of the country, but it might also do unpredictable things as pre-polls and postals come in, as indeed may the seat totals.
9.54pm. My system has Labor ahead in 77 seats, but it’s still treating Brisbane as a Labor-versus-LNP contest when there’s a high probability that Labor will actually finish third and the seat will be one of what could be as many as five Greens seats.
8.31pm. The AEC have, as they say in the trade, declared Calare and Cowper “mavericks”, which is to say acknowledged they have picked the wrong candidates for the two-candidate preferred count and withdrawn those results. Quite a few more will follow. I’m pleased to say this hasn’t made my results pages fall over, which are now projecting them properly as Nationals-versus-independents races with TCP results based on my estimates. Cowper is merely down as “NAT AHEAD”, but this is because I apply a wide margin of error in these cases – I’m in little doubt they will ultimately win the seat.
8.10pm. I’ve now done a manual override to make Ryan a Greens-versus-LNP contest, as I did earlier with Griffith. To be clear, there’s a lot of seats where I should be doing this sort of thing, but it’s a somewhat delicate operation and I’m unable to devote my full attention to this.
7.53pm. My system is calling Bradfield for Labor because, I am quite sure, they have entered Labor and Liberal the wrong way around for TCP in the North Wahroonga booth. I expect this to get drowned out as more votes are added.
7.41pm. There are a number of issues with seats where the AEC has picked the wrong candidates, notably Griffith and Ryan, which it would be nice if I had time to attend to which isn’t available to me. I’ve bitten the bullet though and added an override in Griffith which makes Labor finish third and their preferences decide the seat in the Greens.
6.41pm. I’ve had to pull by aggregated two-party preferred projections – there are issues with them that I’ll be too busy to address. Everything else is working as it should though.
6pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the federal election count. My coverage will basically consist of the above link – I am unlikely to have much to offer this evening in the way of blow-by-blow commentary of the count, which will be in ample supply elsewhere. My comments will be probably be restricted for the most part to pointing out bugs and errors in my live results facility, which I don’t doubt there will be. Though I’ll start with the curious fact that the Norfolk Island booth, in the ACT seat of Bean, was already in before polls closed on the eastern seaboard.
As you can see from the link though, the live results feature should have a huge amount to offer even in imperfect form – still more so now that the style sheet has been expertly pimped by new-found friend of the site Steven Tan. The link above opens to a landing page that summarises the current state of the count in all 151 seats, and includes national and two-party preferred projections that I dearly hope end up doing their job.
Further down are links to individual results pages for every seat including projections of the final two-party result and win probability estimates, a table of booth results encompassing two-candidate preferred and the primary vote with tabs allowing you to toggle between raw votes, percentages and swings. Unless the Australian Electoral Commission and other media outlets have changed their practices, I believe this will be the only place on the internet where booth results will be available for most of this evening. At the bottom is a button which, if clicked, opens a booth results map with colour-coded dots and numbers pointing to the results of each booth that you can click on for a full set of results.
Obviously this involved a good deal of effort, so if you find the effort useful or admirable in any way, please consider making a contribution to the upkeep of the site using the “become a supporter” link at the top of this page, or the “become a supporter” button to be found on the top right of each page of the results pages.
Its a great victory for the Quiet Australians
FYI if you still need this anyone, the liberals have been smashed.
BiltongCinematicU @ #2349 Sunday, May 22nd, 2022 – 1:07 am
Then there is Barnaby getting a run up to put in the boot.
O how we laughed…..
and it couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of assholes
The Liberals renewing themselves is about as sincere as Morrison saying he could “change”…
The LNP has become a party of older, white men….a truly representative group of the Oz population…….Not…..
With Dutton on the horizon as leader, who knows, perhaps the Libs and the Palmer outfit and One nation can form the Extreme Right Wing Party of Australia? You know it makes sense…….Put all the old white men in just one party and go from there……a winner!
Having said this, I admit that Morrison, for the first time in three years kept his goodbye, short, sweet and to the point….He will not be missed……………..at all…….
@evan they may put Hastie in somewhere senior as an attempt to show the west that they care.
Dutton the mutton as leader will be hopeless. Those teal seats won’t come back with him at the helm. And the Liberals need a woman. Change it up. Do they have one who is leadership material?
Maybe they could run Cash for Cook when Scomo retires and she can do a KK and lose it as well.
Looks to me if the Libs will move further to the right with Mr Potatohead in charge.
Firefox @ #2318 Sunday, May 22nd, 2022 – 12:37 am
Can I add mine too? You braved a lot of heckling and you (and certain Greens politicians) were scoffed at by some on here for suggesting the Greens’ support might be climbing and that they would gain seats. Well done!
It looks like Eric Abetz is gone. What a shame 🙂
I see LNP in QLD are projected to elect two Senators (2.18 quotas), the ALP have one and one likely (1.69 quotas) and The Greens are at one likely (.98 quotas). Next is Pauline Hanson at .54 of a quota, Legalise Cannabis Australia on .47 of a quota and UAP on .32 of a quota. Would anyone care to make an educated guess on how QLD will end up?
UpNorth, you are our guru.
ABC tonight: Anthony Green and Andrew Probyn had shockers, David Speers and his panel with the new graphics on the other hand worked rather well.
Of course Liberal Greg Jennett was at the Morrison event.
@Tricot
I don’t challenge the result here, we have a functioning democracy here that hasn’t been corrupted or gerrymandered to the wazoo.
I never like Labor victories but I am not suggesting any fraud here in the absence of compelling evidence, of which there is none.
The biggest challenge for you communists will be resisting the temptation to knife Albo when some idiot from the movement thinks it’s their turn.
I am coming to terms with the annihilation of the Liberal Party. (I exaggerate for effect. But…) If you remove the National Party from the L/NP, what is remains? Who will they blame? (That’s rhetorical.)
Labor has a slim chance, I know, but I hope they grip it. There is so much at stake.
Where’s that bottle?
@evan it was a positive move not having Greg jennet hosting from the ABC.
Wranslide @ #2314 Sunday, May 22nd, 2022 – 12:35 am
It reminds me a little of 2010, when they installed Gillard and rushed to an election hoping that the honeymoon bump and the state of the country being fine would return them with a comfortable enough majority to squash any discontent of the decision.
Same thing here. They assumed that she’d easily get over the line and all would be forgotten.
A Win For The NDIS!
Pretty good outcome overall. Avoided most of the nervous moments with scutineering for 3 hours. WA finally gets its time in the sun.
And thanks WB for the excellent results pages.
Senate looking fairly good. Minus Stoker Abetz among losing nasties.
Were the polls really that wrong? These late votes are very strong for Labor and I won’t be surprised if they end up with with 34ish % which is what a few polls predicted. Also the 53-47 seems spot on. And regarding the low primary vote, Labor played dead in so many Teal seats, in one of them they got 5% which is barely a party. Without the Teals I’d say Lab would have been late 30s.
“Can I add mine too? You braved a lot of heckling and you (and certain Greens politicians) were scoffed at by some on here for suggesting the Greens’ support might be climbing and that they would gain seats. Well done!”
***
Cheers Wat! It’s still kind of sinking in TBH 😀
If the Liberals want a female leader, Karen Andrews is hardly the worst, but they will go for Dutton and move even further to the loony right
@generic person how many liberal leaders do you think there will be between now and the next election? 2 or 3?
There will be on Labor PM: Albanese
I’m loving your anachronisms. Please don’t change.
Oh golly I am sure glad that Dutton keeps his weekly fan slot with Hadley each week. And now as Leader. What more could a willing electorate ask for.
Labor PV continues to slowly climb, might end up around 33.33%
Thanks to William for his brilliant work tonight.
Great night for Australia.
To those highlighting the ALP primary vote, I say look at the scoreboard. They lost pv largely on seats they couldn’t win. They kept votes in seats they needed to win.
Albo’s speech was great and I shed a tear. A more deserving PM – there are no others.
I watched ABC and I thought Tanya was measured and gracious and Birmingham was pretty good too.
An ALP government. At last the country can move forward.
Thanks William for this site. Thanks to the posters.
Hello Sherri Markson…..please give us your predictions again.
Generic….Laugh out loud……..A Communist!!! Me? And we have only just met!
It is just after 11 pm here in Perth and you have actually given me the biggest laugh of the day……I have been called plenty of names but “Communist”!!!
Talking about “knifing” just need to look at the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison trio to talk about “knife in the back”.
You must have seen the photo of Scomo putting his arm around his mate, Turnbull ? You must have missed the knife in the other hand ready to go between the ribs?
I guess if I am to be a Communist then the it must be because you are a Fascist?
One last thought.
Do you think Murdoch is crying right now?
The political empire he spent decades cultivating in Australia has been shredded in one night.
(I know he is probably too rich to care. But I’ll take a little joy at his expense).
After ignoring us during the fires pandemic and floods it turned out this way for those who could not care less except for the corrupt power they could hold. It has come to be. Karma says you should now shut the fuck up, go away, and let the grown ups try to clean up your mess.
Would this be the first Federal election where the Murdoch presses choice lost?
NO MORE ATTACKING MINORITIES! STAND UNITED!
Generic Person @ #2360 Sunday, May 22nd, 2022 – 1:11 am
That will be the Labor so called *communists* who modernised our economy that the lazy incomplete tories didn’t have the balls to tackle.
To float the currency & sky rocket productivity ?
Toser…
Ah fuck, What a night. Victory only has one colour. Margins can wait. Good night!
Firefox says:
Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 1:14 am
“Can I add mine too? You braved a lot of heckling and you (and certain Greens politicians) were scoffed at by some on here for suggesting the Greens’ support might be climbing and that they would gain seats. Well done!”
***
Cheers Wat! It’s still kind of sinking in TBH
中华人民共和国
And cobber we had the best fun all election. Never forget you are a long time in the ground.
Also, not going to lie, watching the Labor primary, count slowly tick up every 15 mins, and the green stay the same, whilst the Liberal/Crazy whack job slowly drops….
It is a beautiful thing.
Looking at Bass, the result has started to tighten up as more votes are reported. Is there any chance they’ve gone early on this (or other seats) and that they end up falling back into the in doubt category?
Sweet Dreams Generic Person…The Blue Side lost this time around……Live with it….for at least three years and hopefully for a minimum of 6………
@Nicko, i think so.
Jr Carl @ #2351 Sunday, May 22nd, 2022 – 1:22 am
Jackie’s preferences probably the difference, she was preferencing archer in Bass.
Lib PV under 40% usually means they’re in trouble
Solidarity forever comrades
Evan at 1.14 re future Liberal direction…
It will be hard for the Liberals to move to the centre. Zali Stegall has shown that teals can defend a ‘moderate’ seat. The Liberals have lost a lot of ‘moderates’ – which was the Right’s plan, after all – as well as a lot of seats.
If they re-embrace the Centre, they might lose some Qld seats to UA/ON AND not get teal seats back.
The US Republicans have been pursuing the same strategy for 50 years – with the exception of Bush jnr (whose terrible exit ratings make his legacy a pox.)
I can more easily imagine a Dutton-led Coalition sliding even further to the Right and seeking to criticise/obstruct/tear down everything Albo wants to achieve. And the meeja will collaborate with Dutton.
If Dutton retains Dickson (likely), the LNP will still have 21 of 30 Qld seats. Qld will be even more dominant in the LNP caucus. I wonder if the Libs and Nats in other states merge and consolidate a lurch to the Right, seeking to poach outer suburban seats from Labor.
Doesn’t look like a strong pathway to govt, but might result in greater numbers in the short term.
I’ve probably lost the ability to count, but it seems possible that Labor + Greens + Jackie Lambie Network will be enough for a 1 seat Senate majority?
Fire-Fox, well played to the Greens. I underestimated the support level. Congratulations to you and your party on some stunning results.
JLN and/or David P?
Change the government change the country. Best result.
bc at 1:11 am says:
> Next is Pauline Hanson at .54 of a quota, Legalise Cannabis Australia on .47 of a quota and UAP on .32 of a quota. Would anyone care to make an educated guess on how QLD will end up?
I can only offer the educated opinion of Kevin Bonham who thinks PH should get up.
> In Queensland, Pauline Hanson is drifting back towards Legalise Cannabis but I would expect her to be fine even if slightly behind after preferences.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/05/2022-federal-election-late-night-live.html
ShowsOn at 1.30
Labor + Grn + JL + Pocock looks like it.
Yes, a big FU to Murdoch, commercial radio and TV, and some elements of the ABC too.
Honest Bastard at 1.32
Wouldn’t it be delicious if QLD – of all places – chose Canabis over Hanson?
Libs spent 50 yrs tricking people into thinking they are anything but crazy far right wing nuts. Many migrants think that the party name means the same as “liberal” globally and are shocked when they hear what they actually represent/believe.
It’s time they are split/rent asunder on their own grave through stupidity, gaslighting the inner city rich folk.
The reckoning, it is here.