Federal election live

Live commentary and discussion of the election night count for the 2022 federal election.

Click here for full federal election results updated live.

10.39pm. My system’s call of Durack as “ALP ahead” is a puzzle to me. Neither Nine or the ABC thinks so. Perhaps this is because we have different ways of processing an extraordinary result at the large Broome pre-poll voting centre, which looks to me like a 30% swing to Labor. I’ll be interesting to see what happens when it reports its two-candidate preferred numbers.

10.22pm. Now that the mad rush is past, if you’ve been enjoying my live results, perhaps you make care to make a small contribution through the “become a supporter” button at the top of the page. Not that its work is done by any stretch – it will continue to chalk up new results and maintain projections and probability estimates over the fortnight to come.

10.07pm. Having worked out what was wrong with them, I’ve now restored the aggregated national and state two-party preferred projections to the results display, which suggest Labor will win the two-party preferred by around 52-48. This may inflate a bit as the Western Australian count catches up with the rest of the country, but it might also do unpredictable things as pre-polls and postals come in, as indeed may the seat totals.

9.54pm. My system has Labor ahead in 77 seats, but it’s still treating Brisbane as a Labor-versus-LNP contest when there’s a high probability that Labor will actually finish third and the seat will be one of what could be as many as five Greens seats.

8.31pm. The AEC have, as they say in the trade, declared Calare and Cowper “mavericks”, which is to say acknowledged they have picked the wrong candidates for the two-candidate preferred count and withdrawn those results. Quite a few more will follow. I’m pleased to say this hasn’t made my results pages fall over, which are now projecting them properly as Nationals-versus-independents races with TCP results based on my estimates. Cowper is merely down as “NAT AHEAD”, but this is because I apply a wide margin of error in these cases – I’m in little doubt they will ultimately win the seat.

8.10pm. I’ve now done a manual override to make Ryan a Greens-versus-LNP contest, as I did earlier with Griffith. To be clear, there’s a lot of seats where I should be doing this sort of thing, but it’s a somewhat delicate operation and I’m unable to devote my full attention to this.

7.53pm. My system is calling Bradfield for Labor because, I am quite sure, they have entered Labor and Liberal the wrong way around for TCP in the North Wahroonga booth. I expect this to get drowned out as more votes are added.

7.41pm. There are a number of issues with seats where the AEC has picked the wrong candidates, notably Griffith and Ryan, which it would be nice if I had time to attend to which isn’t available to me. I’ve bitten the bullet though and added an override in Griffith which makes Labor finish third and their preferences decide the seat in the Greens.

6.41pm. I’ve had to pull by aggregated two-party preferred projections – there are issues with them that I’ll be too busy to address. Everything else is working as it should though.

6pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the federal election count. My coverage will basically consist of the above link – I am unlikely to have much to offer this evening in the way of blow-by-blow commentary of the count, which will be in ample supply elsewhere. My comments will be probably be restricted for the most part to pointing out bugs and errors in my live results facility, which I don’t doubt there will be. Though I’ll start with the curious fact that the Norfolk Island booth, in the ACT seat of Bean, was already in before polls closed on the eastern seaboard.

As you can see from the link though, the live results feature should have a huge amount to offer even in imperfect form – still more so now that the style sheet has been expertly pimped by new-found friend of the site Steven Tan. The link above opens to a landing page that summarises the current state of the count in all 151 seats, and includes national and two-party preferred projections that I dearly hope end up doing their job.

Further down are links to individual results pages for every seat including projections of the final two-party result and win probability estimates, a table of booth results encompassing two-candidate preferred and the primary vote with tabs allowing you to toggle between raw votes, percentages and swings. Unless the Australian Electoral Commission and other media outlets have changed their practices, I believe this will be the only place on the internet where booth results will be available for most of this evening. At the bottom is a button which, if clicked, opens a booth results map with colour-coded dots and numbers pointing to the results of each booth that you can click on for a full set of results.

Obviously this involved a good deal of effort, so if you find the effort useful or admirable in any way, please consider making a contribution to the upkeep of the site using the “become a supporter” link at the top of this page, or the “become a supporter” button to be found on the top right of each page of the results pages.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,489 comments on “Federal election live”

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  1. Julie Bishop also made a wise comment. The Coalition better not see One Nation’s high vote tonight as a reason to lurch further to the Right.

  2. Look, as much as I’m thrilled about Labor winning, the real story is the Teals.

    I thought they would win one or two seats, come close in a couple of others, and we would hear a lot of bullshit from the Libs about how they have to listen to what the voters are telling them.

    Instead, the Teals have obliterated the Libs. This is the Libs DLP moment.

  3. Hope those Over East have appreciated what the West has done for Labor!!!!
    Seriously, just TWO seats extra was all there was on my horizon – ever…Just show how useless and wrong one can be!
    I am even more of the view that the polls providing Two Party Preferred Vote has is is serious need of revision by the polling outfits.
    I am aware that the TPP is getting somewhere near 52-48 for Labor but this metric is no longer serving its purpose.
    True, the LNP vote was down nearly 6% but the Labor vote on 32% or thereabouts was not predicted at all, and in fact, the polls got the PV more wrong for Labor than they did for the LNP.
    All polling outfits will now have to have a serious rethink of their methods now we have an increasingly splintered electorate.
    Despite the end result of 52-48 – or close enough – I think to trust opinion polls, at the moment, is fraught with uncertainty.
    Three years from now and Newspoll (and the other polls) come up with 53-47 I will take this an indication just above looking a tea leaves/chook entrails as any kind of predictor of election outcomes.
    Whoever said this election was 151 by-elections was nearer the mark and the polling companies now need to look at the electorate on a seat by seat basis not just the broad sweep leading to a generalised TPP outcome.
    Still, as Tanya said tonight after a sour grapes question from Sales, a win is a win is a win……

  4. Agree DB Cooper. Them hollowing out the LNP is arguably more valuable long-term than a ALP win. Depending on how successful they are in the future of course.

  5. WA went red and Brisbane green, the colours of Albos rabbits. To the new PM very proud to know you don’t have to be a superman just a good bloke. I can sleep sound and really happy that BK ( and me) can see an ALP PM. And had Scomoe won with Murdochcracy help, we are still a democracy which is better than Putin’s Russia.

  6. The parliament is going to look and sound very different.

    Got rid of a lot of rubbish and recruited some serious talent.

  7. “Firefox: how do you reckon Nat prefs would go (between ALP/Green) if they stayed third?”

    ***

    More to ALP than Green but prob not by quite as much as normal.

    I’m not sure that the Nats will stay in third though, as looking at the other candidates there is approx 7% with the Lib Dems, 4% with PHON, 3% with UAP, then another 10% with right leaning/anti-vaxxer indies. You would think that the Nats will get a lot of the preferences from that ~24%.

  8. I know I said I was going to bed, but then the amazing Mariam Saab appeared on ABC News. Now I just want to keep watching.

    How is someone as amazing and beautiful as her kept in the graveyard slot by the ABC?

  9. Excellent victory for the ALP, with the exact majority to be determined as the counting of votes will continue.

    Excellent achievement for the Teals.

    Good result for the Greens, but it looks like that they will fall short from breaking the ceiling of their 13% achieved in 2010. However, they will get some company for Bandt in the H. of Representatives.

    Smashing defeat for the Coalition… a well deserved outcome for one of the worst governments in living memory.

    What about the myth of the sinking primary vote for the two major sides of politics?…. Well, that may be a serious problem for the Coalition, but this time around, in order to understand the primary vote of the ALP, you have to take into account traditional ALP voters first-preferencing Teal candidates in Liberal safe seats. Tactical voting is very different from “abandoning your old party”.

  11. Albo has no overwhelming mandate. He will be weak and subject to cross-bench whims.

    The weak wets in the Libs have been geurnea’d out.

  14. I’m struggling to see how the libs win an election again in the foreseeable future. These indies are going to stick around and if the libs go the Dutton route it’ll be the end of them.

  19. Richmond is extremely close. If the fringe candidates preferences go heavily to the Nats and pass Labor it’s a Greens vs Nats contest which the Greens win.

  21. Upnorth: indeed Gough & Bob would be sharing an amber fluid tonight. It’s a win for the believers goodonya mate!!!!! And thanks for the good vibes. Life is short and wonderful it’s good to love everybody and care for this beautiful world, it is precious.

  23. Great result and everyone over East giving it away tonight….
    The wisest comments came from Tanya P…
    Labor must now plan for the next election right now…….
    The splintering of the right-wing vote is here for keeps……
    The soft Liberals have been thrown out and the LNP will now swinging further right an ape the Republican Party in the US…
    Labor will need to accommodate the Greens on the left and this disaffected Liberal group to the right….
    A PV of 32% for Labor, this time, they have to away with….This is a pee weak effort and it will not come off again three years from now…………………………
    Luckily for Labor, the West came in with the real 10% swing, but this is a oncer………………………..
    Queensland is still a desert for Labor and with the Libs swinging further right, Labor ever getting the far North red necks will be harder than ever…
    Okay…time for bed after a few celebratory drinks!!

  25. A Labor win. Yes. And good. But. Not much working majority if any. Could be back at the polls in short order unless the Greens stay solid. And the Senate. Looking to be terrible for Labor with such a low primary vote so it might be hard to navigate.

    The greens have some serious sway now even if Labor won’t admit it or can’t.

    And the decision by NSW ALP to run Keneally. What a disgrace. Could cost it outright majority. Anyone going to claim that one?

  26. The Libs will have much needed renewal and will have to rediscover their principles. Scott Morrison was a vacuous leader that did not believe in any Liberal principles.

    He made some strides in defence and saved the country from collapse during the pandemic but we now have an excruciating debt load.

    Albo and Chalmers have not pledged to repair the budget but to simply spend even more.

    I am not altogether worried that Albo has taken control of the poisoned chalice in that respect, given rising inflation and interest rates.

  27. BTRProducer says:
    Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 12:47 am

    @UpNorth

    How are you travelling, cobber?
    中华人民共和国
    Doing Thai Malam – Thai Karaoke damn fun

  28. C@tmomma @ #2271 Sunday, May 22nd, 2022 – 12:39 am

    Julie Bishop also made a wise comment. The Coalition better not see One Nation’s high vote tonight as a reason to lurch further to the Right.

    It’s late, and I’m sure it matters to her, but if Albanese keeps his team together, who cares? They are in disarray. (And a well earned rest for you. Respect.)

  32. Fascinating night – i think still a few seats we havent even discussed much going to go down to unexpected wires

    ALP expected value maybe 76-77? If its 75 and KK loses Fowler, well some justice in that lol

    I wonder if anyone predicted a crossbench of as many as 15… incredible

    Overall, a fair result. Getting a majority with a 32% primary (and your vote going down from last election) is expecting a lot. What a shellacking for the coalition though, i think the biggest one there has been in my lifetime. We needed this change, and it duly was delivered but in a unique way from the Aussie people which is as it should be

    Congrats to ALP and those here that worked so hard to contribute to their success, thinking of you C@t especially but also several others

    I have to congratulate Firefox, what a fantastic night for the Greens and in Queensland no less. Really an excellent outcome for them

    Should be an interesting next few years, looking forward to it. Dutton as oppo leader not so much – maybe non-Qld libs can unite behind a more centrist candidate to stop him

  34. I must also confess to enjoying the demolition derby Dai Le exacted on that imbecilic Keneally. I wish her well on her return to Scotland Island.

  36. The Labor “has no mandate” crap was a line from the days of Abbott….
    The AFR raised it again yesterday.
    Hint: In our system, just get to see who forms government to pass legislation in the House of Representatives to see just what “a mandate” means….
    Just check who will be Prime Minister and which party formulates policy………………….
    The “mandate” line is always thrown out by sour-grapes losing Liberals and their National partners…..
    The 55 seats out of 151 hardly places the LNP to talk about mandates as they have been thrashed at this election……
    Get over it, as Labor has had to, for the past nine years or so….

  37. Generic Person @ #2326 Sunday, May 22nd, 2022 – 12:52 am

    The Libs will have much needed renewal and will have to rediscover their principles. Scott Morrison was a vacuous leader that did not believe in any Liberal principles.

    Give us a break. The Tories have *No* principles which is why the have had their arses kicked.

    The libs supported morrison until he lost. Before that “rediscover principles” was unheard.

    You have drunk the cool aid for far too long GP.

  40. Generic Person…Your next step is to claim the vote was a fraud and the Liberals did not really lose the election…The Blue side lost….They are now a depleted and defeated opposition which will swing further to the right to the point the Nationals may have more seats….I feel sorry for middle of the road Liberals…Where to they go from here?

  41. BTRProducer: how are you mate, I am so pissed, but worth it, an honour being part of the drunks club on Poll Bludger.

    Just worked out that there are virtually no Liberal moderates left, at least in the lower house.
    Labor on the other hand, brimming with new talent now and diversity.
    Shout out to Andrew Charlton, he beat not only the Libs in Parramatta, but the entire Murdoch empire too.

  42. Love hearing the LNP operatives waxing lyrical on the PV of Labor when they’ve just lost Higgins, Kooyong, Goldstein, Curtin, Wentworth, North Sydney and MacKellar.

  44. If Labor falls short of majority by one seat and it is Fowler then the General Secretary and party apparatus of NSW ALP should also go as well. Disgraceful decision and was always going to cause issues. It’s a real turd on an otherwise positive night for Labor. And it is sad because these are the communities that have stayed true to Labor for so many years and deserved a local Labor MP in Govt finally!

    You never know KK may win.

  45. The Liberals were soundly rejected and the new PM has a mandate to follow a completely different path to the Morrison govt.

    Labor may still get the numbers for a majority government but if not there are a dozen moderate and/or progressive members that are unlikely to oppose much of it’s agenda

    Also looking like there will losses in the Senate for the bad guys and the government might only need Pocock and/or Lambie for a majority

  46. Evan says:
    Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 1:03 am

    BTRProducer: how are you mate, I am so pissed, but worth it, an honour being part of the drunks club on Poll Bludger.

    Just worked out that there are virtually no Liberal moderates left, at least in the lower house.
    Labor on the other hand, brimming with new talent now and diversity.
    Shout out to Andrew Charlton, he beat not only the Libs in Parramatta, but the entire Murdoch empire too.
    中华人民共和国
    Not bad for a 131 year old hey cobbers! Labor forever defending our rights. Down with the black legs.

  48. “I have to congratulate Firefox, what a fantastic night for the Greens and in Queensland no less. Really an excellent outcome for them”

    ***

    Cheers mate, same to you 🙂

  49. I wonder how long the LNP will be out in the wilderness? We had 9 years of them after Labor tore itself apart.

    But this looks even worse for the LNP. Their MPs have become more conservative (Dutton, etc.) whilst the base has moved into the centre. How can the conservatives reconcile with this? Can they pretend? Or will infighting dog them?

  50. Looooooong time lurker, first time poster (lurking since last election), @ 1am on election eve!!!

    Thankyou to every poster for providing me with endless entertainment, opinion, etc. (except the pathetic greens v ALP battles, focus on the real enemy!!!) & thankyou to the wonderful William Bowe for the best live results functionality on the planet bar none.

    What a night, watching the core of the Liberals city support, flee en masse is not at all surprising. Based on my discussions (as an admittedly well off, affluent tech professional), i can assure that the LNP issue in the inner and middle rings of Syd, Bris & Melb is not a short term problem.. If my wife is any barometer, this demo is gone for life, for them, unless they completely remove the entire existence of the National party & conservative libs from their party.

    As for WA…….. Lets just say that i will be visiting and spending ALOT of money there….

    YOU ARE THE GREATEST PEOPLE ON THE PLANET THANKYOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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