Click here for full federal election results updated live.
10.39pm. My system’s call of Durack as “ALP ahead” is a puzzle to me. Neither Nine or the ABC thinks so. Perhaps this is because we have different ways of processing an extraordinary result at the large Broome pre-poll voting centre, which looks to me like a 30% swing to Labor. I’ll be interesting to see what happens when it reports its two-candidate preferred numbers.
10.22pm. Now that the mad rush is past, if you’ve been enjoying my live results, perhaps you make care to make a small contribution through the “become a supporter” button at the top of the page. Not that its work is done by any stretch – it will continue to chalk up new results and maintain projections and probability estimates over the fortnight to come.
10.07pm. Having worked out what was wrong with them, I’ve now restored the aggregated national and state two-party preferred projections to the results display, which suggest Labor will win the two-party preferred by around 52-48. This may inflate a bit as the Western Australian count catches up with the rest of the country, but it might also do unpredictable things as pre-polls and postals come in, as indeed may the seat totals.
9.54pm. My system has Labor ahead in 77 seats, but it’s still treating Brisbane as a Labor-versus-LNP contest when there’s a high probability that Labor will actually finish third and the seat will be one of what could be as many as five Greens seats.
8.31pm. The AEC have, as they say in the trade, declared Calare and Cowper “mavericks”, which is to say acknowledged they have picked the wrong candidates for the two-candidate preferred count and withdrawn those results. Quite a few more will follow. I’m pleased to say this hasn’t made my results pages fall over, which are now projecting them properly as Nationals-versus-independents races with TCP results based on my estimates. Cowper is merely down as “NAT AHEAD”, but this is because I apply a wide margin of error in these cases – I’m in little doubt they will ultimately win the seat.
8.10pm. I’ve now done a manual override to make Ryan a Greens-versus-LNP contest, as I did earlier with Griffith. To be clear, there’s a lot of seats where I should be doing this sort of thing, but it’s a somewhat delicate operation and I’m unable to devote my full attention to this.
7.53pm. My system is calling Bradfield for Labor because, I am quite sure, they have entered Labor and Liberal the wrong way around for TCP in the North Wahroonga booth. I expect this to get drowned out as more votes are added.
7.41pm. There are a number of issues with seats where the AEC has picked the wrong candidates, notably Griffith and Ryan, which it would be nice if I had time to attend to which isn’t available to me. I’ve bitten the bullet though and added an override in Griffith which makes Labor finish third and their preferences decide the seat in the Greens.
6.41pm. I’ve had to pull by aggregated two-party preferred projections – there are issues with them that I’ll be too busy to address. Everything else is working as it should though.
6pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the federal election count. My coverage will basically consist of the above link – I am unlikely to have much to offer this evening in the way of blow-by-blow commentary of the count, which will be in ample supply elsewhere. My comments will be probably be restricted for the most part to pointing out bugs and errors in my live results facility, which I don’t doubt there will be. Though I’ll start with the curious fact that the Norfolk Island booth, in the ACT seat of Bean, was already in before polls closed on the eastern seaboard.
As you can see from the link though, the live results feature should have a huge amount to offer even in imperfect form – still more so now that the style sheet has been expertly pimped by new-found friend of the site Steven Tan. The link above opens to a landing page that summarises the current state of the count in all 151 seats, and includes national and two-party preferred projections that I dearly hope end up doing their job.
Further down are links to individual results pages for every seat including projections of the final two-party result and win probability estimates, a table of booth results encompassing two-candidate preferred and the primary vote with tabs allowing you to toggle between raw votes, percentages and swings. Unless the Australian Electoral Commission and other media outlets have changed their practices, I believe this will be the only place on the internet where booth results will be available for most of this evening. At the bottom is a button which, if clicked, opens a booth results map with colour-coded dots and numbers pointing to the results of each booth that you can click on for a full set of results.
Obviously this involved a good deal of effort, so if you find the effort useful or admirable in any way, please consider making a contribution to the upkeep of the site using the “become a supporter” link at the top of this page, or the “become a supporter” button to be found on the top right of each page of the results pages.
Check out William’s graph for Cowper. I think it’s broken his computer: https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2022/Results/HR.htm?s=Cowper
Jan @ #627 Saturday, May 21st, 2022 – 6:04 pm
Only every time, and how many times have we delivered…..0
WB
Diogenes @ #578 Saturday, May 21st, 2022 – 7:57 pm
They haven’t discovered teals yet up there?
Time to move to the Kirribilli club
I’m interested in if the pre polls are going to be roughly the same as today’s votes or if they behave differently (late tightening or just more of the rusted ons getting it done early)
I wouldn’t be giving away or claiming anything close until we get those later tonight.
For those in the independent republic of SA…
Labor has won Boothby, but not Sturt or (the Indy winning) Grey (despite swings).
Hundreds of thousands of NSW and Vicco’s have moved to Qld in the last couple of years..
Maybe they have all been greens voters?
Hey William: there’s something wrong with the Chisholm 2pp figures. (Looks like a rogue minus sign.)
William:
Cowper doesn’t look right, surely Labor can’t get into second there. (I guess this is because that’s the 2PP pair chosen by the AEC?).
Frydenburg might do better on Pre-poll and postal and drag that back in but hopefully not
Dutton is now ahead.
Way too early to dismiss either of them winning their seats.
Scott from Adelaide
What Labor are learning here is the “centre” is where parties go to die.If you stand for nothing you please no one.
They might limp into minority government on a 30% primary (I hope so for the sake of my wagers)via their declining rusted on tribal vote but the future lies elsewhere.
Frydenberg as leader and only a couple of seats from Government, damn good position when you consider what all were expecting.
Antony Green has just called “It’s going to be a long night”.
Have pre-polls been added to the count yet William?
I am guessing, based on the past few elections that pre-polls will be the same as the election day votes.
Small target only worked to drag Scomo down. It didn’t endear ALP to anyone it seems.
This is all over the place
Tim Wilson on 7 “I’m very calm and relaxed”
You don’t look it mate
”
Scottsays:
Saturday, May 21, 2022 at 7:41 pm
Ven
the Lib/nats are not going to form minority or majority government with combined primary vote around 36% or lower
”
Please get out of your Hyperbole room.
Higgins, Labor ahead, would be Labor gain, from ABC.
My heart bleeds for little Timmy in Goldstein!
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I reckon your heart bleeds Barossa Shiraz.
DRDR @ #655 Saturday, May 21st, 2022 – 8:10 pm
Speers said (I think) that they come into the mix after 9pm.
Kooyong.
From Liberal Party jewel, to the one that got away.
AG says it’s difficult to see how the coalition can get a majority
Could it be that the pre-poll vote brings up ALP’s PV??
ABC’s changing seats is so volatile. Seats being added and removed
30.6 % PV for ALP after 20% vote is counted. Pathetic to put it mildly.
Antony keeps repeating it’s a long night!
Greens look like holding the balance of power
We won’t see prepolls for a few hours
It’s gonna be a long nght: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SAJTeCJ7NG0
This is a national bucket of sh*t poured on Morrison and Albanese.
Ven stop with your hyperbole
Looking better for Labor, based on ABC coverage.
JLN well over half a senate quota in the three northern seats, also 5.5% in Franklin. If that carries through to the senate, Tammy Tyrell has a pretty good chance there.
This is by far the most interesting election I’ve witnessed.
Confessionssays:
Saturday, May 21, 2022 at 8:11 pm
DRDR @ #655 Saturday, May 21st, 2022 – 8:10 pm
Have pre-polls been added to the count yet William?
Speers said (I think) that they come into the mix after 9pm.
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Thanks Fess.
From Antony Greens latest comments Labor is still headed for more seats than the Liberals. In terms of a mandate to negotiate with the Teals that is important.
So I am still very confident the Morrison government is gone.
Fascinating swings in the top 4 Chinese speaking langauge seats. Massive swings to Labor in those seats, except Parramatta.
Some say pre polls have been part of the count, some say they don’t appear til 9pm.
Who is right?
One of the reason Labors total PV is so low is they are getting next to nothing in the teal seats and they don’t matter. Labor could get 0% in all those seats and it would not matter.
Ignore the 30% and look at seats. It is seats that form government.
Only on party has any chance at a majority and it is Labor
Scott from Adelaide
Could it be that the pre-poll vote brings up ALP’s PV??
That’s my conjecture, but it’s not much more than a feelpinion at this stage.
If labor end up in minority government they have to call a Royal Commission into the Murdoch press. If only to make sure that the next abbot doesn’t get elected.
Very early count in ACT Senate (1.1%) and Seselja in deep trouble, with Gallagher and Pocock looking good.
This ‘Chinese language’ seats analysis that Speers is currently wanking off on, is bullshit. The ABC continues its rapid descent into the gutter.
mj says:
Saturday, May 21, 2022 at 8:14 pm
This is by far the most interesting election I’ve witnessed.
________
It’s fascinating.
Ven
Needs to take a break instead of attacking others for saying their opinion
and here you are doing the same thing , hypocritical
SA Bludger
Look at Williams results, at the bottom of the polling booth are the pre-poll boths. I have not really been looking but that is where you will see if pre-polls have been counted.
Scott from Adelaide
This is by far the most interesting election I’ve witnessed.
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This election is brought to you by the MSM.
My heart bleeds for little Timmy in Goldstein!
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I reckon your heart bleeds Barossa Shiraz.
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Not yet Jan!