Federal election live

Live commentary and discussion of the election night count for the 2022 federal election.

Click here for full federal election results updated live.

10.39pm. My system’s call of Durack as “ALP ahead” is a puzzle to me. Neither Nine or the ABC thinks so. Perhaps this is because we have different ways of processing an extraordinary result at the large Broome pre-poll voting centre, which looks to me like a 30% swing to Labor. I’ll be interesting to see what happens when it reports its two-candidate preferred numbers.

10.22pm. Now that the mad rush is past, if you’ve been enjoying my live results, perhaps you make care to make a small contribution through the “become a supporter” button at the top of the page. Not that its work is done by any stretch – it will continue to chalk up new results and maintain projections and probability estimates over the fortnight to come.

10.07pm. Having worked out what was wrong with them, I’ve now restored the aggregated national and state two-party preferred projections to the results display, which suggest Labor will win the two-party preferred by around 52-48. This may inflate a bit as the Western Australian count catches up with the rest of the country, but it might also do unpredictable things as pre-polls and postals come in, as indeed may the seat totals.

9.54pm. My system has Labor ahead in 77 seats, but it’s still treating Brisbane as a Labor-versus-LNP contest when there’s a high probability that Labor will actually finish third and the seat will be one of what could be as many as five Greens seats.

8.31pm. The AEC have, as they say in the trade, declared Calare and Cowper “mavericks”, which is to say acknowledged they have picked the wrong candidates for the two-candidate preferred count and withdrawn those results. Quite a few more will follow. I’m pleased to say this hasn’t made my results pages fall over, which are now projecting them properly as Nationals-versus-independents races with TCP results based on my estimates. Cowper is merely down as “NAT AHEAD”, but this is because I apply a wide margin of error in these cases – I’m in little doubt they will ultimately win the seat.

8.10pm. I’ve now done a manual override to make Ryan a Greens-versus-LNP contest, as I did earlier with Griffith. To be clear, there’s a lot of seats where I should be doing this sort of thing, but it’s a somewhat delicate operation and I’m unable to devote my full attention to this.

7.53pm. My system is calling Bradfield for Labor because, I am quite sure, they have entered Labor and Liberal the wrong way around for TCP in the North Wahroonga booth. I expect this to get drowned out as more votes are added.

7.41pm. There are a number of issues with seats where the AEC has picked the wrong candidates, notably Griffith and Ryan, which it would be nice if I had time to attend to which isn’t available to me. I’ve bitten the bullet though and added an override in Griffith which makes Labor finish third and their preferences decide the seat in the Greens.

6.41pm. I’ve had to pull by aggregated two-party preferred projections – there are issues with them that I’ll be too busy to address. Everything else is working as it should though.

6pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the federal election count. My coverage will basically consist of the above link – I am unlikely to have much to offer this evening in the way of blow-by-blow commentary of the count, which will be in ample supply elsewhere. My comments will be probably be restricted for the most part to pointing out bugs and errors in my live results facility, which I don’t doubt there will be. Though I’ll start with the curious fact that the Norfolk Island booth, in the ACT seat of Bean, was already in before polls closed on the eastern seaboard.

As you can see from the link though, the live results feature should have a huge amount to offer even in imperfect form – still more so now that the style sheet has been expertly pimped by new-found friend of the site Steven Tan. The link above opens to a landing page that summarises the current state of the count in all 151 seats, and includes national and two-party preferred projections that I dearly hope end up doing their job.

Further down are links to individual results pages for every seat including projections of the final two-party result and win probability estimates, a table of booth results encompassing two-candidate preferred and the primary vote with tabs allowing you to toggle between raw votes, percentages and swings. Unless the Australian Electoral Commission and other media outlets have changed their practices, I believe this will be the only place on the internet where booth results will be available for most of this evening. At the bottom is a button which, if clicked, opens a booth results map with colour-coded dots and numbers pointing to the results of each booth that you can click on for a full set of results.

Obviously this involved a good deal of effort, so if you find the effort useful or admirable in any way, please consider making a contribution to the upkeep of the site using the “become a supporter” link at the top of this page, or the “become a supporter” button to be found on the top right of each page of the results pages.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,489 comments on “Federal election live”

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  1. Chris Pyne conceded he doesn’t think Libs can form govt in own right.

    Chris Bowen says it’s still possible Labor will, but impossible to say right now

  2. What I see is that the Coalition will not have a mandate to fuck this country over, in that disrespectful way that only they can, any more. And with that I am very happy.

  5. What also interesting

    Labor , The Greens , Independents gain seats on top of what they hold

    Lib/nats gain none , they may win new seats but no extra on what top they held (75) coming to this election

  6. Lars Von Trier says:
    Saturday, May 21, 2022 at 8:23 pm

    74 seats to Labor at the moment based on who is in front (assuming Labor loses Fowler).

    So its a coalition with the Greens – but what terms will the Greens ask for ?
    ________
    Where are have all the rabid anti-Greens posters gone?

  8. KK being parachuted into Fowler looks to be a huge mistake. Would have gone a long way to getting Labor closer to government if they held a normally safe seat

  9. The Coalition MPs are already running their ALP + Greens lines on 7. Fuck off before I throw something at the TV.

    Gallagher not afraid to dispute the bullshit claims being put

  11. Okay.. it looks like a Labor minority.

    Albanese will be tossed out in one term of legislative impotence. Dutton will be PM for 20 years thereafter.

  13. Nope Steve777 – I was on the money re Fowler though.

    I think this is a great result – hopefully Labor has the brains to embrace electoral reform.

    If you cant see it with a primary vote of under 31% when will the Labor party see it?

  16. The trend is good ALP almost 31, LNP almost 35, it is slow but all in the right direction. Greens almost 13

  17. @mj – Labor likely to need Greens support in the Senate, much as the Teals may suit them better on many things in the House (if they don’t get to majority, and if they don’t it might be because seats like Ryan and Higgins go Green not ALP).

    I’m incredibly relaxed here. I think Labor has this even before WA and it’s just the margin. WA may well make the majority clear.

  18. ‘PaulTu says:
    Saturday, May 21, 2022 at 8:27 pm

    ABC commentary says “Sturt is gone for all money” but Boothby
    is still close.

    If true – wow!’
    ================
    Crabbe got it wrong, IMO. The reverse is true.

  21. Fowler is not over, independents ussually do worse in pre-poll and postals, quite often significantly worse
    Scott from Adelaide

  24. KK is a walking target. I imagine Sydney shock jock radio would have been all over this for months.

    A lot to be said for competent, hard working, local small target MPs in the current media environment. She may still win. But I don’t get the move.

  25. ACT Labor has been worried that Gallagher might suffer in a three way contest with Pocock and Seselja due to Labor voters voting strategically for Pocock. However ABC currently calculates 4-5% swings to Labor in each of the three ACT seats they already hold. Hopefully this portends both Gallagher and Pocock in the Senate and Seselja put out to pasture.

  27. Labor’ primary vote a disaster, a better leader and they would have won in a landslide. Plibersek or Clare would have been far better. Albo never cut through.

  28. No matter how it goes from here I can’t see Labor getting less than 70 seats and the Liberals will have low 60s. It will be a Labor government. Period.

    And Labor is in front in Sturt!!! Five hours well spent.

  32. As much as I appreciate the message it would send about parachuting candidates into seats because a party insider considers themselves entitled to it, with Keneally ahead now slightly on election day votes, I can’t see her losing once pre-polls, absents and postals have been counted.

    I think there is a message here about diversity in Parliament, with Australia being a significantly more diverse place than what is represented.

  35. Bit of assumption here i think on the Greens. Looks to me like ALP small majority, where they will have to maintain a decent working relationship with the X benches….all the X benches, not just the Greens. 🙂
    So, Greens look like having a good night, but coalition partners to anybody that does not make.

    In the HoR ALP could have a number of paths to pass legislation, and i think given their experience in minority govt would use them all as appropriate.

  36. I’d say it’s London to a brick that the Dawn Patrol will be VERY late tomorrow morning – if it appears at all.
    I won’t be getting to sleep until very late the way things are going.

  37. As i said yesterday, the Teals were going to have a massive influence on this result. They have turned politics upside down

  39. Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #663 Saturday, May 21st, 2022 – 8:10 pm

    I am guessing, based on the past few elections that pre-polls will be the same as the election day votes.

    I suspect that the LNP and Labor votes will be stronger in postals and prepolls because I suspect those people had already made up their mind while the polling day voters may have been more indecisive and more likely punted for other options.

  40. good news Federal Integrity /Icac – Action on climate , hopefully better conditions for those on welfare , and workers and every day Australians

  45. Let’s hope the cave-dwellers buck the trend for once, offsetting the likely results in Bass, Braddon. To give him his due, Morrison left Archer alone.

  46. I’m anti green but I’m more anti LNP. I’d embrace The Greens if they embrace the possible rather than the dream.

    At this stage I may be getting the Tamburlaine Reserve Cab Sav.

  48. My expectation driving home from Chisholm this evening, was that the majors’ PVs would be higher than polling suggested. Couldn’t have been more wrong

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