Click here for full federal election results updated live.
10.39pm. My system’s call of Durack as “ALP ahead” is a puzzle to me. Neither Nine or the ABC thinks so. Perhaps this is because we have different ways of processing an extraordinary result at the large Broome pre-poll voting centre, which looks to me like a 30% swing to Labor. I’ll be interesting to see what happens when it reports its two-candidate preferred numbers.
10.22pm. Now that the mad rush is past, if you’ve been enjoying my live results, perhaps you make care to make a small contribution through the “become a supporter” button at the top of the page. Not that its work is done by any stretch – it will continue to chalk up new results and maintain projections and probability estimates over the fortnight to come.
10.07pm. Having worked out what was wrong with them, I’ve now restored the aggregated national and state two-party preferred projections to the results display, which suggest Labor will win the two-party preferred by around 52-48. This may inflate a bit as the Western Australian count catches up with the rest of the country, but it might also do unpredictable things as pre-polls and postals come in, as indeed may the seat totals.
9.54pm. My system has Labor ahead in 77 seats, but it’s still treating Brisbane as a Labor-versus-LNP contest when there’s a high probability that Labor will actually finish third and the seat will be one of what could be as many as five Greens seats.
8.31pm. The AEC have, as they say in the trade, declared Calare and Cowper “mavericks”, which is to say acknowledged they have picked the wrong candidates for the two-candidate preferred count and withdrawn those results. Quite a few more will follow. I’m pleased to say this hasn’t made my results pages fall over, which are now projecting them properly as Nationals-versus-independents races with TCP results based on my estimates. Cowper is merely down as “NAT AHEAD”, but this is because I apply a wide margin of error in these cases – I’m in little doubt they will ultimately win the seat.
8.10pm. I’ve now done a manual override to make Ryan a Greens-versus-LNP contest, as I did earlier with Griffith. To be clear, there’s a lot of seats where I should be doing this sort of thing, but it’s a somewhat delicate operation and I’m unable to devote my full attention to this.
7.53pm. My system is calling Bradfield for Labor because, I am quite sure, they have entered Labor and Liberal the wrong way around for TCP in the North Wahroonga booth. I expect this to get drowned out as more votes are added.
7.41pm. There are a number of issues with seats where the AEC has picked the wrong candidates, notably Griffith and Ryan, which it would be nice if I had time to attend to which isn’t available to me. I’ve bitten the bullet though and added an override in Griffith which makes Labor finish third and their preferences decide the seat in the Greens.
6.41pm. I’ve had to pull by aggregated two-party preferred projections – there are issues with them that I’ll be too busy to address. Everything else is working as it should though.
6pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the federal election count. My coverage will basically consist of the above link – I am unlikely to have much to offer this evening in the way of blow-by-blow commentary of the count, which will be in ample supply elsewhere. My comments will be probably be restricted for the most part to pointing out bugs and errors in my live results facility, which I don’t doubt there will be. Though I’ll start with the curious fact that the Norfolk Island booth, in the ACT seat of Bean, was already in before polls closed on the eastern seaboard.
As you can see from the link though, the live results feature should have a huge amount to offer even in imperfect form – still more so now that the style sheet has been expertly pimped by new-found friend of the site Steven Tan. The link above opens to a landing page that summarises the current state of the count in all 151 seats, and includes national and two-party preferred projections that I dearly hope end up doing their job.
Further down are links to individual results pages for every seat including projections of the final two-party result and win probability estimates, a table of booth results encompassing two-candidate preferred and the primary vote with tabs allowing you to toggle between raw votes, percentages and swings. Unless the Australian Electoral Commission and other media outlets have changed their practices, I believe this will be the only place on the internet where booth results will be available for most of this evening. At the bottom is a button which, if clicked, opens a booth results map with colour-coded dots and numbers pointing to the results of each booth that you can click on for a full set of results.
Obviously this involved a good deal of effort, so if you find the effort useful or admirable in any way, please consider making a contribution to the upkeep of the site using the “become a supporter” link at the top of this page, or the “become a supporter” button to be found on the top right of each page of the results pages.
BK at 8:33 pm
Call it an early Monday patrol.
If KK loses Fowler she could be held in reserve for a by election?
DPRee @ #791 Saturday, May 21st, 2022 – 8:33 pm
The postal Jewish vote an issue he’s saying.
Wentworth is far from over, Spender favourite but Sharma still a good chance
Scott from Adelaide
I just heard A. Green saying, “I can’t seethe coalition forming government.”
Q: Did I hear it right?
Ch9. COverage is remarkably good
Antony can’t see a path to LNP getting over 70 seats, high 60’s. Can see Labor 70+
Kroger now calls the possible loss of Josh a ‘national tragedy’.
Green says LNP cannot get to 70.
If Labor is forced into minority government then they must have a Royal Commission into the media.
Murdoch will not let up for three years, just like Gillard last time. It will be relentless.
It’s Time says:
Saturday, May 21, 2022 at 8:33 pm
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #663 Saturday, May 21st, 2022 – 8:10 pm
I am guessing, based on the past few elections that pre-polls will be the same as the election day votes.
I suspect that the LNP and Labor votes will be stronger in postals and prepolls because I suspect those people had already made up their mind while the polling day voters may have been more indecisive and more likely punted for other options.
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Very true, might be a big thing in Qld with the high Greens vote, this is getting exciting
I don’t think the Teals would have a problem with a Murdoch Royal Commission.
Pre-polls not added yet.?
Bugger me, if the TV I’m watching didn’t belong to the hotel I’m in, I’d have thrown a stubbie at Annabelle Crabb by now!
At a Don’s Party with friends. Will check I later!
Well, it’s better than 2019. Back then, on a long drive, I had switched the car radio from the ABC election coverage to music by now.
The narrative for 3 years would be “look what happens when you don’t vote coalition: chaos”
Wtf is the point of a post like this
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What is the point of all of it? Only Pinot makes any sense.
I was working in a remote valley in the sth flinders today. There was a ruin there where the farmer told me a couple with 8 kids once lived many many years ago. The kids had to hike over the range to get to school. Would have taken well over an hour each way (less if they ran). I could see evidence of an orchard. Roses. Unforgiving land. Tough life. What becomes of these people? Their children?
I don’t care who wins.
So long as Morrison loses.
And the lady at the bar finds another bottle of Pinot.
Laura Tingle, no LNP majority. More likely is Labor minority.
ALP now $1.10
Results starting to come through from WA, although they’re only country booths.
The tight seats like Gilmore will surely be impossible to call tonight
Birmingham has virtually conceded lnp can’t win enough seats
BK:
Saturday, May 21, 2022 at 8:33 pm
[‘I’d say it’s London to a brick that the Dawn Patrol will be VERY late tomorrow morning – if it appears at all.’]
Have a sleep in BK, you verily deserve one.
Labor is now $1.09 to form government on Sportsbet. The shortest odds it’s ever been this election cycle, if I’m not mistaken.
This will be bad for all reform.
I am beginning to think Labor will pick up both Boothby and Sturt. It could be that Sturt is the real smokie for the night.
Pearce and Swan are going to be incredibly important….
Wannon still in play, Tehan and ALP doing better than IND in pre-poll, but Alex Dyson still 2nd on primaries, and actually got more primary votes than Tehan in his home town, and the two biggest booths from there (and the electorate) still to come.
OK. Mr Morrison is gone. Good.
Douglas and Milko says:
Saturday, May 21, 2022 at 8:38 pm
At a Don’s Party with friends. Will check I later!
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Did you bring your pornographic object??
Frydenberg and Wilson in real trouble.
All economic issues will be blamed on the labor minority. So the next coalition government will get 10 easy years.
LNP out the $8 on Sportsbet, get on it now!
hazza4257 says:
Saturday, May 21, 2022 at 8:38 pm
The narrative for 3 years would be “look what happens when you don’t vote coalition: chaos”
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What would it be if the parliament works , why vote for the lib/nats majority when it was chaos for 9 years
I hope the result in Fowler proves an apt lesson to the NSW branch of the folly of parachuting in candidates against the wishes of their branch.
“Where are have all the rabid anti-Greens posters gone?”
I am shoving them all under the bed and hoping the Greens forget they existed?
I still think the Greens made terrible decisions in the past but hoping that there can be a more productive outcome this time where negotiations involve actual compromise.
I am completely on board with Australia FINALLY giving an electoral sign that climate change matters by way of the Teals and Greens taking over major party heartland. Last time was crushing because it was talked up big as an issue but the Greens and Labor went backwards and explicitly there were swings AGAINST climate action policy on some areas. Firefox and co may not believe it but I’ve probably been campaigning on climate longer than them. I remember when we were doing campaigns on the ozone layer and “the greenhouse effect”, and the way we won ozone but the greenhouse effect got politicised and turned into a partisan thing as big industry money dug in against it. The dispute has always been about the method of getting people and government on board not about the goal.
BREAKING: Barnaby Calls The Soon To Be Former PM ScoMo To Ask If The Bonk Ban Applies To In Opposition.
Go easy on the pinot Jan
Why is there so much hate for KK?
ALP into 1.09 as sworn in government. Looks like WA will determine whether minority or majority
Greens may have 4
Melbourne
Griffith
Ryan
Brisbane (neck and neck with ALP)
Did I tell you about our good friend Adam Bandt?
I have no idea why the NSW Labor Party over estimates KK’s appeal to the electorate.
I think she is greatly over rated.
Some crazy swings every which way. All over the shop.
Minority Labor govt coming up
Rakali @ #842 Saturday, May 21st, 2022 – 8:41 pm
I like her but it’s been clear for some time the public does not after her stint as premier
Barney in Tanjung Bunga: Kenneally a self entitled loser and should be a local member selected
Why is everyone resigned to Labor minority? There is much to play out yet
Phil Coorey would feel more depress than the lib/nats
Well done Greens and Teals. Really saved our bacon. Taking seats from the LNP is the most important thing.
The best thing is we might get a really good ICAC out of this!
Coalition looks good to lose……Reid Chisholm, Higgins, Brisbane, Boothby, Robertson to ALP
Coalition look to lose Ryan to the Greens.
Coalition look likely to lose Wentworth, North Sydney, Kooyong, Mackellar and Goldstein to Teals
so 12 seats so far