The final Ipsos poll of the campaign has dropped courtesy of the Financial Review, showing Labor leading 53-47 on its most straightforward measure of two-party preferred, applying 2019 preference flows and excluding all the undecided. The Coalition is up a solid four points on the primary vote since the weekend before last to 33%, but this partly reflects a two-point drop in undecided from 7% to 5%. Labor is down a point to 34%, the Greens are steady on 12% and others are down one to 15%.
Without excluding the undecided, Labor is down a point on the previous-election two-candidate preferred measure to 51% while the Coalition is up four to 44%. A further measure with respondent-allocated preferences has a higher undecided result of 11% (down four) which further includes those who were decided on the primary vote but not on preferences, on which Labor is down a point to 49% and the Coalition is up five to 40%.
Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up two to 34% with disapproval steady on 51%, while Anthony Albanese is up three to 33% and down one to 37%. Albanese maintains a 42-39 lead as preferred prime minister, in from 41-36 last time.
UPDATE: Labor’s lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is now at 53.5-46.5, a narrowing that partly reflects the Ipsos result but has also been affected by a change I’ve made to the allocation of preferences, which continues to be based on flows at the 2019 election but now breaks out the United Australia Party from “others”. The measure is still more favourable to Labor than the account of internal party polling provided by Phillip Coorey in the Financial Review, which says Labor’s has it at about 52-48 while a Coalition source believes it “could be as close as 51-49”. Time will tell, but based on no end of historic precedent, such numbers seem more plausible to me than BludgerTrack’s, which exceed Labor’s performance at any election since 1943. A Newspoll that should be with us this evening will be the campaign’s last national poll, and perhaps its last poll full-stop.
Late Riser and the general population of the Whatever-The-Fuck-Our-Name-Is-Pollbludger-Pissheads-Club…
In therapy, I’ve been working through some conundra (part of my campaign for fewer plurali ending in ‘s’)…
1) I have a morbid fear of the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing, so, Late Riser, will not be entering any ‘fearless forecasts’. Existence would be difficult if I felt I had tipped the delicate karmic balance in favour of returning Morrison and his lot!
2) Due to both my chronic health condition, I can only consume a small amount of alcohol. So, IF (no assumptions) Labor wins, a toast from me would be possible, but pre-result lubrication or extensive post-unthinkable-result not. As chardonnay is my toasting weapon of choice, I have struggled with the question of when it would be timely to chill the bottle, which immediately bumps up against my previously-mentioned morbid fear of the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing. I have provisionally determined, in the eventuality of a Labor win being declared by St Antony, to place said chardonnay in freezer so that it will be nicely done in time for consequent concession and victory speeches.
3) On an unrelated matter, my health condition also means my contribution to Labor’s campaign has been limited to some small donations. I am deeply thankful to all those who’ve done various hard yards: phoning, letter-boxing, handing out HTVs, setting up stalls etc etc.
Does anyone know if the AEC are setting up a voting hotline for monkey pox sufferers?
The push polling was, inter alia, a de facto a commercial attack on the Canberra Times.
I assume that they will have their legal people have a look at it.
PVO saying it’s a majority or minority Labor government
Boerwar
adVaNcE AuStRAyA should really be named ” we’re still salty our beloved tony lost “
Who are the Libs on the TV panels tomorrow night? Could we be about to watch the party implode in real time? I can’t wait. (I’ve put a heap of homebrew in the fridge – a palish Belgian ale with some wheat and oats in the mash – makes for an excellent fine head)
It could get pretty spicy as they unload their recriminations on each other. Like, eg, how good is Alex Hawke? Not to mention whippersnipper/lawnmower/Bulldozer man. (Neil Mitchell was quoted on the guardian blog asking him which of those he had become today)
And according to the helpful list provided by The Loose Unit, the Newspoll record dating from the 1993 election to 2019 (10 elections) shows Newspoll was on or near the money for about 5 of these….It was drastically wrong in 2019, pretty much on the mark for the five elections between 2007 and 2016 and pretty ordinary in elections 1993 to 2001…
I am heartened by the fact that Newspoll has had a pretty good record more recently and fair enough, but it is not gold standard and has been wrong often enough to have some sense of reluctance to take it as such….
Someone on PB said it recently, but the low PV increases the uncertainty in predicting preference flows and at the same time raises the importance. I agree. I think Labor will win a small majority. Albanese and his team will have to build from there. I’m going to update my guess. (Values in parentheses indicate the change from my previous guesses.)
ALP | LNP | KAP | GRN | CA | Teal | other
78(-2) | 62(+2) | 1(+0) | 2(+0) | 1(+0) | 2(+0) | 5 (+0)
The newspoll tightening maybe in the primary votes
Labor 38%
Lib/nats combined primary vote up 1 to 36%
Comfortable Labor majority
Boerwar says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 6:00 pm
Just got outrageously push-polled by Advance Australia.
________________________________-
I got one of those as well. But I roundly and offensively abused the robocaller and then hung up.
Kenny mentioned “a tightening” in Newspoll.
Credlin mentioned “a Newspoll later at about 9pm”, nothing on figures. Mentioned the Ipsos that showed a “huge rise in Coalition primary”.
BW
vale Bluey-OCC3!
I take renewed hope in reincarnation as version 4, but trust that he’s not needed
Crikey.. watching Ch 7 news just now, I realise that nasty looking incident where a car accidentally drove into a crowd at the Ringwood pre-poll happened a short time after the visit there I referred to ^^ a few posts back.
Good to see Bluey’s cuzzies are out campaigning.
ShaneB
It was crude and nasty stuff, IMO.
I understand Ms Vicki Dunne may have some sort of significant organisational involvement. Ms Dunne’s whose previous claim to fame was getting elected as the ACT Legislative Assembly Speaker with the backing of Shane Rattenbury. Some mothers do ‘ave em.
Subgeometer – hopefully your promotion to full geometer will not be long delayed…
Snappy Tom says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 6:03 pm
Late Riser and the general population of the Whatever-The-Fuck-Our-Name-Is-Pollbludger-Pissheads-Club…
In therapy, I’ve been working through some conundra (part of my campaign for fewer plurali ending in ‘s’)…
1) I have a morbid fear of the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing, so, Late Riser, will not be entering any ‘fearless forecasts’. Existence would be difficult if I felt I had tipped the delicate karmic balance in favour of returning Morrison and his lot!
2) Due to both my chronic health condition, I can only consume a small amount of alcohol. So, IF (no assumptions) Labor wins, a toast from me would be possible, but pre-result lubrication or extensive post-unthinkable-result not. As chardonnay is my toasting weapon of choice, I have struggled with the question of when it would be timely to chill the bottle, which immediately bumps up against my previously-mentioned morbid fear of the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing. I have provisionally determined, in the eventuality of a Labor win being declared by St Antony, to place said chardonnay in freezer so that it will be nicely done in time for consequent concession and victory speeches.
3) On an unrelated matter, my health condition also means my contribution to Labor’s campaign has been limited to some small donations. I am deeply thankful to all those who’ve done various hard yards: phoning, letter-boxing, handing out HTVs, setting up stalls etc etc.
中华人民共和国
Your a good cobber. Me too. Not much to do in Bangkok. But we voted and sent some $$$ to the good guys. In Thailand we can only buy booze after 5pm. So in another two hours will go and collect some Beer Lao and Champagne for Mrs Upnorth.
All the good cobbers out there. Be safe.
Boothby and Swan given away by Ulhmann…..well that would be a nice start….already past the total number of ALP gains in 2019
poroti
Crackers. I think if I had one of those corflutes I would actually put it out the front.
“Labor will win Boothby and Swan, says Chris Uhlmann.”
Love this. Add two Teals to this and before we start, the numbers are: L/NP 73, ALP 71 (given that one seat was redistricted to nominal ALP).
Just a little thought there.
Labor – the party of Adani and Beetaloo – don’t have a shred of credibility when it comes to climate while they continue to back coal and gas. Their supporters know it too, which is why they feel the need to dredge up failed policies from the past.
You can always tell you’re dealing with one of the crazy conservatives from the Labor Right when someone starts droning on about the CPRS and arguing in favour of taking less action than Morrison. They’re the only people who still care about it, and why? Because the Greens were actually responsible for the ETS/Carbon Price the Gillard/Bandt/Ind gov delivered. Those arguing in favour of the CPRS are so unbelievably out of touch with the reality of the climate crisis and with what the science is telling us is required.
I’m having a sudden attack of the wild optimisms and I’m not waiting for Newspoll to say 53 or 54. I think they’re all herding a little now against a fear of going too high against last time herding against a fear of being caught out saying 50-50 or worse instead of the presumed “correct” Labor victory.
Just about all the factors look to me to be in the direction of ALP upside. Instead of seat polls where you couldn’t find any evidence of Labor winning no matter what national polls said, we’re now spoiled for choice for where the wins will come from. The polling numbers are baking in a strong break of undecideds for the Liberals (strong flow of preferences to Libs generally) that may not be echoed this time especially considering the Teal effect which may also artificially suppress the ALP primary a bit and distort preferences. The pollsters all have strong incentive to err on the side of not massively understating the Coalition again and err on the side of going too hard with whatever method they are hoping corrects for 2019’s error.
Finally, the ALP this time have given every impression at the end of being on offence only with seat visits while Morrison is visiting Hasluck and Curtin and doesn’t that say it all.
The polls COULD despite everything be missing by 3 to the Coalition again but geez that would be an even bigger fuckup in context than last time with no excuses.
Put me down for ALP 82 seats, Teals 3, Greens 1, Sharkie 1, Katter 1, Haines 1, Rob Priestley 1 as my previously nominated dark horse pick up for fun, and I think that leaves the Coalition writhing on the floor on 57.
With the news about prepoll counting, called by AG at about 9pm once the early WA results are in although it will be clear enough earlier.
Is Ulhmann’s crystal ball of a higher quality than everyone elses’s ?
What other insights does he have? I don’t think Morrison went to Swan today……….for what it is worth…..
‘TPOF says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 6:06 pm
Boerwar says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 6:00 pm
Just got outrageously push-polled by Advance Australia.
________________________________-
I got one of those as well. But I roundly and offensively abused the robocaller and then hung up.’
===================
I gave random responses.
Good luck for all those involved in the campaigns. I am in awe of your efforts. Carer responsibilities and upcoming surgery stopped me doing anything but monitoring.
It looks like we will be happy tomorrow evening
Boerwar
For ‘after election’ wear there are some 🙂 t-shirts with this on.
sprocket_says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 6:05 pm
PVO saying it’s a majority or minority Labor government.
_____________________
The morning after the knifing PVO said Gillard would increase the ALP majority at the next election.
It is symptomatic of the Morrison Government that on the last day:
1. There is a massive and damaging Cabinet leak.
2. The leak is about Payne trying to double Pacific foreign aid but being knocked back.
3. Morrison refuses to discuss the substance of the leak which is extremely damaging to their defence of losing the Solomons.
4. Morrison claims his ministers would never, ever leak.
5. Points the finger at the public servants who were present.
6. Does not mention the ministerial office staff, dozens of whom would have known what was in the Cabinet papers.
Cat
“He’s still not going to bring the Muruguppan family back to Bilo though.”
In doing so Morrison gives Albanese an immediate opportunity to set a new moral tone for a new government.
Bridget Archer on whether Morrison should remain leader after the election per the Guardian:
She said:
“Those will be decisions that will be had into the future as they always are.”
Asked for her views on him remaining leader, she said:
“I don’t have a view at the moment.
Scott Morrison is taking us to this election and my focus is on retaining the seat of Bass.”
p
I look forward to seeing Liberal hacks all over the land wearing just such!
Does anyone know what the polls said leading into the WA bloodbath?
Taylormade @ #1574 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 6:15 pm
Scraping the bottom of the barrel now, Taylormade. 😆
Rewi
Wearing her clacker out with the fence sitting routine?
Socrates @ #1576 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 6:17 pm
Because Albanese has already stated multiple times that he will bring them #BacktoBilo.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/05/20/guy-rundle-2022-election-prediction/
Labor wins: Bass, Boothby, Chisholm, Braddon, Pearce, Higgins, Casey, Hasluck, Sturt.
Coalition wins: Macquarie, Corangamite, Hughes
Greens win: Griffith
Teals win: Goldstein, Curtin, Kooyong, North Sydney
Rusts win: Nicholls (probably not; sentimental hope)
And with that you end up with:
Labor: 75 seats
Greens: 2 seats
Coalition: 65 seats
Teals: 4 seats
Rusts: 2 seats (Haines in Indi, Priestly in Nicholls)
Right independents: 2 seats (Katter in Kennedy, Sharkey in Mayo)
Left independents: 1 seat (Wilkie in Clark)
Lol Taylormade
the loose unit,
Uhlmann just said Labor wins Swan. Also you keep leaving out Robertson. Where do you live, Mars!?!
Boerwar
I reckon she’s off the fence there.
Rewi
She who is not with me is against me?
“I fucken told ya three times Barry. I got ya to write it down. I said ‘vet the ‘A’ candidate’ not ‘get a vet candidate'”
Does anyone know what the polls said leading into the WA bloodbath?
News poll had ALP 66 a LNP-34
Result was 70-30
Tom
Both the polls and then Leader of the Opposition ZRFK said Labor were going to win but no one was anywhere near the margin.
Uhlmann giving the ALP Boothby and Swan? How courageous.
Tom at 6.18 re polls and WA election…
IIRC, the last Newspoll in WA had ALP 66 2PP – so got reasonably close to the eventual 69.7!
I think the polling said ‘some level of total wipeout’ but several journalists embarrassed themselves by sticking to the ‘it’ll be tight’ corporate line.
Taylormade @ #1575 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 5:45 pm
Well that settles it. If someone can’t correctly predict an event two months in the future (and factor in all the variables that may change that outcome) they have zero credibility on anything.
Tom
I checked out what the state polls were saying before the relevant elections.*
Basically Newspoll was right on the money and most other pollsters underestimated Labor’s vote.
*Easy to do, wikipedia includes polling data leading up to each election, so just google it!
Boerwar
An answer along the lines of “Are you suggesting there might be a spill motion against a newly elected Prime Minister?” would have been the team-spirited, confident response.
Rewi
Coy Tory effect?
With a very low expected Lib PV, Indis in Nicholls and Grey dark horses for me . Check out high PHON vote here in Grey in 2019, One nation preferencing Liz Habermann before Lib. If she can carve enough Lib vote away and finish second after One nation’s 8-10%… then get Labor/Greens…?
https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2022/HR.htm?s=Grey