Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

Evidence that late deciders are breaking to the Coalition, but Labor maintains a solid lead in the final Ipsos poll.

The final Ipsos poll of the campaign has dropped courtesy of the Financial Review, showing Labor leading 53-47 on its most straightforward measure of two-party preferred, applying 2019 preference flows and excluding all the undecided. The Coalition is up a solid four points on the primary vote since the weekend before last to 33%, but this partly reflects a two-point drop in undecided from 7% to 5%. Labor is down a point to 34%, the Greens are steady on 12% and others are down one to 15%.

Without excluding the undecided, Labor is down a point on the previous-election two-candidate preferred measure to 51% while the Coalition is up four to 44%. A further measure with respondent-allocated preferences has a higher undecided result of 11% (down four) which further includes those who were decided on the primary vote but not on preferences, on which Labor is down a point to 49% and the Coalition is up five to 40%.

Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up two to 34% with disapproval steady on 51%, while Anthony Albanese is up three to 33% and down one to 37%. Albanese maintains a 42-39 lead as preferred prime minister, in from 41-36 last time.

UPDATE: Labor’s lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is now at 53.5-46.5, a narrowing that partly reflects the Ipsos result but has also been affected by a change I’ve made to the allocation of preferences, which continues to be based on flows at the 2019 election but now breaks out the United Australia Party from “others”. The measure is still more favourable to Labor than the account of internal party polling provided by Phillip Coorey in the Financial Review, which says Labor’s has it at about 52-48 while a Coalition source believes it “could be as close as 51-49”. Time will tell, but based on no end of historic precedent, such numbers seem more plausible to me than BludgerTrack’s, which exceed Labor’s performance at any election since 1943. A Newspoll that should be with us this evening will be the campaign’s last national poll, and perhaps its last poll full-stop.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,831 comments on “Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 37
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  1. Pi @ #92 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 5:39 pm

    mark 22: “We should also stop selling coal to both of them.”

    You realize that China is the largest manufacturer of solar infrastructure in the world, right? So you reckon we should kill that industry?

    We should definitely stop selling THERMAL coal to them, that’s for sure – and we should be winding down supply of coking coal to push a transition to green steel production.

  2. My last comment was hidden/removed presumably because I use a VPN and posted a link (to William’s commentary in Crikey about the Senate)

    Given several of the polsters are changing methodology in the last week, isn’t this evidence of “herding”, regardless of whether we believe that this is justified as it provides a “more accurate” prediction (narrower gap between Labor and LNP) or not?

    But if the narrowing is correct, then this is a significant problem if Labor/Greens wish to control the senate, as the Labor primary vote is not great – this actually suggests that Greens voters should tactically vote for Labor in the Senate to increase the chances of the overall number of combined Greens/Labor seats in the upper house.

  3. [‘Albanese maintains a 42-39 lead as preferred prime minister, in from 41-36 last time.’]

    At this point in the election cycle, I think this is a metric that should be taken notice of, even though it has narrowed, and you’d not normally take this into account. I have a strong sense that the female vote will decide the election as they’re generally perceptive, borne of their innate sense of knowing how to choose a suitable partner for their issue. I’d cite Darwin but that would arguably upset some. Anyway, tomorrow’s Newspoll will I think ape Ipsos – the charlatan will be finally put to pasture, who’s as bad as Howard, in that he started the move to the LCD.

  4. Rocket Rocket @ #68 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 7:16 pm

    Late Riser

    By the way I saw on your table you had a prediction from me at 80 seats and election to be called by January!

    This is surely an error – I’m pretty sure I have made no prediction. I may have put an 80 or 81 last time in 2019 but I am loath to do any now. I will be happy with 73 or more but don’t like to think too hard about what it will actually be.

    Ah. Got it. Two problems.

    * 80 seats: I can’t find a record of a guess for Rocket Rocket in the FINAL SEAT COUNTS guesses. But I can add your guess of 73?

    * January: I screwed up! Sorry. There are two possible ways I screwed up. Either I forgot to enter the date/time you made your guess (so it defaults to 0th January), or I somehow copied Historyintime’s guesses into a blank that also had “Rocket Rocket” attached, so again 0th January! I suspect the latter. (I’ve been doing a lot of copy/paste.) I can remove your recorded guess. -OR- I can add a date/time at which you made that guess. (If the latter how about 2 days ago at 19:00 hours?)

    Again. Sorry for the oops. Let me know.

    EDIT: less ambiguity

  5. Mavis @ #99 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 5:41 pm

    [‘Albanese maintains a 42-39 lead as preferred prime minister, in from 41-36 last time.’]

    At this point in the election cycle, I think this is a metric that should be taken notice of, even though it has narrowed, and you’d not normally take this into account. I have a strong sense that the female vote will decide the election as they’re generally perceptive, borne of their innate sense of knowing how to choose a suitable partner for their issue. I’d cite Darwin but that would arguably upset some. Anyway, tomorrow’s Newspoll will I think ape Ipsos – the charlatan will be finally put to pasture, who’s as bad as Howard, in that he started the move to the LCD.

    I wouldn’t read too much into Preferred PM unless the OL has a particularly large lead. 3 points ain’t it.

  6. NSW, finally

    … the Voluntary Assisted Dying Bill passed the NSW Upper House after a marathon debate in the NSW Upper House last night. The final vote took place in the Upper House this morning with a majority of 23 to 15 votes. It was then rushed down to the Lower House where it was quickly ratified.

    We owe a great debt of gratitude to Labor MLC Adam Searle for steering the Bill through notoriously unpredictable waters in the Upper House with great skill, diplomacy, and unfailing respect for opposing views.

    We could not have done this without the support of the 28 co-sponsors of the Bill and those MPs from across the political divide who voted to support this Bill.

    Collaboration and bi-partisanship have become scarce commodities in our democracy. Perhaps the success of this Bill will prompt more of our elected representatives to put aside their differences and work constructively for the benefit of the community.

    Dying With Dignity correspondence

  8. (Tom says:
    Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 7:10 pm

    south @ #46 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 7:04 pm

    So without getting to excited about it, who thinks the liberals will splits and we’ll end up with teals. uber libs and nats.
    Not sure what will happen, but some sort of split is on the way.)

    It’s already here, Liberal, National, Onp, Ups, Teals and other assorted small L liberals.
    Don’t you just love it.

  11. Antarctic bases use diesel generators for electricity for heating don’t they? Does anyone know what failsafe mechanisms they have for emergency heating if their primary method fails?

    They have a separate set of generators as backup for the main units:
    https://www.antarctica.gov.au/antarctic-operations/stations/amenities-and-operations/power-generation/

    McMurdo Station tried nuclear power for 10 years:
    http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2014/ph241/reid2/

  12. Ticktock: “We should definitely stop selling THERMAL coal to them, that’s for sure – and we should be winding down supply of coking coal to push a transition to green steel production.”

    So we should punish them with poverty because we have guilty consciences?

    No. We fix our back yard. They are already trying to fix theirs, and they have far larger problems of poverty that starvation doesn’t help alleviate. When we have our back yard fixed, we continue to help our neighbors ween themselves off of carbon, as more and more renewables capacity gets built out.

    Until we fix our back yard, we are in no position whatsoever to lecture other people about the state of theirs.

  13. Mavis

    It is unusual for any opposition leader to be ahead on that metric, even ones who later went on to win.
    When Malinauskas went ahead in SA, that is when I thought he’d definitely win.

  14. So if there’s a federal ICAC with teeth which particular MPs and former ministers do you think will be implicated?

  15. Freya Stark @ #93 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 7:40 pm

    @ltep… and if the polling is say 51.5 to Labor, the true election day result is 51.5 to the Coalition.

    Are you honestly still trying to suggest, after the major adjustments made by all polling companies to fix the problems in 2019, which have resulted in polling companies underestimating Labor’s vote at every election since then, that the error at this election will be worse with overestimating the Labor vote than it was in 2019?

    Honestly?

    Seriously?

    Actually?

    Really?

    Truthfully?

  17. Pi @ #108 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 5:45 pm

    So we should punish them with poverty because we have guilty consciences?

    No. We fix our back yard. They are already trying to fix theirs, and they have far larger problems of poverty that starvation doesn’t help alleviate. When we have our back yard fixed, we continue to help our neighbors ween themselves off of carbon, as more and more renewables capacity gets built out.

    Until we fix our back yard, we are in no position whatsoever to lecture other people about the state of theirs.

    I support ceasing the burning of thermal coal here in Australia too.
    Continuing to sell it to China after doing that is like a drug dealer saying he’s stopped using.

  18. Diogenes at 7:40. I can’t believe Bragg would be in play, it’s preposterous………(I think Bragg is in play!.)

  19. nath says:
    Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 7:36 pm
    Prince planet says:
    Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 7:34 pm

    Snappy Tom: I agree , Bitar, Arbib and Paul Howe’s ended Labor’s last chance at a long stint of government.
    ________
    A lot more people were involved than that lot. It was a conspiracy of Dunces.
    __________
    I disagree – it was a thrill kill – they wanted to see what it would be like rolling a first term PM.

  21. Hi William,
    Laura Tingle just reported Ipsos poll results saying ALP 36, Coalition 35. So did 9 News. The Ipsos table doesn’t show these figures. Would you please give us the unvarnished figures that produces 53/47 Labor, including UAP & ON.

  22. John Anderson @ #117 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 5:50 pm

    Hi William,
    Laura Tingle just reported Ipsos poll results saying ALP 36, Coalition 35. So did 9 News. The Ipsos table doesn’t show these figures. Would you please give us the unvarnished figures that produces 53/47 Labor,

    ALP 36 Coalition 35 probably comes from distributing the undecideds on primary.

  23. mark 22: “Pi are you suggesting that China needs coal for power to manufacture solar?”

    Of course they do. They are managing the shift to renewables far faster than we are in Australia are too. They’re already at 40% of their grid supply from renewables. We’re at about 30%. We are in no position to lecture China about the transition to renewables. They have accomplished more in their renewables build-out with less resources per capita.

    I can’t believe that this needs to be explained tbh. There is a mind worm “muh china” about renewables that seems to be fueled by the trumpkinverse. WE are the stragglers. WE are the people not holding up our side of the bargain. Stop this blame shifting and look in the mirror. China is not the problem with carbon emissions. WE are. They will have migrated to renewables far faster than we will have, and they’ll have done it because it makes good business sense. Renewables are cheaper. Fact.

  26. 15 years, isn’t that the plan.

    So, Howard and Downer won’t face FICAC.

    Doesn’t the ALP have a promise for a RC into the dealings though?

    As to who might be sweating:

    Roberts, Porter, Joyce, Ley, Taylor, Dutton.

    As a start.

  27. Robert Lee @ #120 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 5:53 pm

    15 years, isn’t that the plan.

    So, Howard and Downer won’t face FICAC.

    Doesn’t the ALP have a promise for a RC into the dealings though?

    As to who might be sweating:

    Roberts, Porter, Joyce, Ley, Taylor, Dutton.

    As a start.

    No, 15 years was just a figure conjured up by the media IIRC.
    As far as I’ve seen from Labor, they haven’t nominated a limitation on how far back the ICAC could look (though presumably some offences would be subject to statutes of limitations).

  28. GlenO says:
    Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 7:47 pm
    Freya Stark @ #93 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 7:40 pm

    ___________
    Don’t know if there is a polling error a la 2019 – BUT combined 2 majors vote last time – was nearly 75% and now it is according to Ipsos 67%.

    I don’t know if there is particularly good polling re Teal independents or why the primary is so low.

    Maybe that 5% undecided breaks 90/10 or 80/20.

    We will see soon enough.

  29. We should continue to sell coal to those who still want to buy it but plan on the basis that it’s a shrinking market, diversify away from it and go after developing renewable technologies locally.

    And plan to stop using the stuff ourselves ASAP. That we can control. What choices India and China make we can’t.

  30. Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #983 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 6:21 pm

    Interesting, the undecided are breaking slightly to the LNP according to the poll

    IPSOS number have been very stable over the couse, not like that other poll with absurd variations

    Whilst I have your attention Dr, that recommendation of Steersman was spot on,even better medicine than the Coles offering.So many thanks

  32. Ticktock says:
    Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 7:41 pm
    Pi @ #92 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 5:39 pm

    mark 22: “We should also stop selling coal to both of them.”

    You realize that China is the largest manufacturer of solar infrastructure in the world, right? So you reckon we should kill that industry?
    We should definitely stop selling THERMAL coal to them, that’s for sure – and we should be winding down supply of coking coal to push a transition to green steel production.
    中华人民共和国
    Australia hasn’t sold any Coal to China for about 18 months. Your comments don’t make sense. China is the worlds’ largest Coal Miner. Notwithstanding they import from Indonesia, USA, Canada, Mongolia, Russia and some from South America.

    You need to call Xi Jin Ping if you want them to stop.

  33. Robert Lee says:
    Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 7:53 pm
    15 years, isn’t that the plan.

    So, Howard and Downer won’t face FICAC.

    Doesn’t the ALP have a promise for a RC into the dealings though?

    As to who might be sweating:

    Roberts, Porter, Joyce, Ley, Taylor, Dutton.

    As a start.
    ____________________
    Seriously? Your going to be disappointed. It’ll be as effective as the Liberals multiple Royal Commissions. Good for lawyers though

  36. Jaeger

    Thanks – very interesting articles, especially the one about the nuclear reactor at McMurdo which I had never heard of. I will have to read some of the other students’ papers from that “Introduction to Nuclear Energy” class at Stanford in 2014 – they look interesting, and clicking on a few they seem fairly short and easy enough to follow.

    http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2014/ph241/

  37. surely if there is an ICAC with a decent set of teeth then Stuart Robert would be (hopefully) absolutely fucked..

    and gee, wouldn’t it be nice to see the Robodebt flog get his just deserts..

  38. Only minor offences have a limitation period.

    ICAC should have the capacity itself to determine how far back in time it will go with its investigations.

  40. It’s not about how much CO2 we admit it’s about the opportunities, Coal and Oil are going the way of the Dodo. We are not the only country in the world that has sun and plenty of flat ground for solar or land for wind. But we are ideally suited to supply all the electricity that Asia needs if we move fast before others do.

  41. Lars Von Trier says:

    A lot more people were involved than that lot. It was a conspiracy of Dunces.
    __________
    I disagree – it was a thrill kill – they wanted to see what it would be like rolling a first term PM.
    _____________
    Love it.

  42. Good to have a bit of Ruddkill and SDA action back.

    Anyway, leave Rudd behind, but in what world does the ALP gain from excising Australia’s largest labour union from its base?

    And doesnt the ALP still need some economically centrist but socially conservative electoral support to win.

  45. Ticktock:

    Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 7:42 pm

    Mavis @ #99 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 5:41 pm

    [‘Albanese maintains a 42-39 lead as preferred prime minister, in from 41-36 last time.’]

    [‘At this point in the election cycle, I think this is a metric that should be taken notice of, even though it has narrowed, and you’d not normally take this into account. I have a strong sense that the female vote will decide the election as they’re generally perceptive, borne of their innate sense of knowing how to choose a suitable partner for their issue. I’d cite Darwin but that would arguably upset some. Anyway, tomorrow’s Newspoll will I think ape Ipsos – the charlatan will be finally put to pasture, who’s as bad as Howard, in that he started the move to the LCD.’]

    [‘I wouldn’t read too much into Preferred PM unless the OL has a particularly large lead. 3 points ain’t it.’]

    Few opposition leaders have had a lead in the PPM stakes. But when combined with a 2PP lead – well, I leave it up to your judgment.

  46. Historyintime @ #135 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 6:03 pm

    Good to have a bit of Ruddkill and SDA action back.

    Anyway, leave Rudd behind, but in what world does the ALP gain from excising Australia’s largest labour union from its base?

    And doesnt the ALP still need some economically centrist but socially conservative electoral support to win.

    SDA’s politics is a legacy of B A Santamaria and the DLP. Readmitting them to the Labor party was a mistake that the ALP have paid for ever since in terms of the SDA frantically white-anting any potentially socially or economically progressive policy (eg. same-sex marriage, voluntary assisted dying, raising welfare payments etc).

    SDA is also bad in terms of unionism and standing up for workers – there’s a reason they’re derisively referred to as the “Coles and Woolies managers’ union”.

  47. MikeK @ #140 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 8:02 pm

    It’s not about how much CO2 we admit it’s about the opportunities, Coal and Oil are going the way of the Dodo. We are not the only country in the world that has sun and plenty of flat ground for solar or land for wind. But we are ideally suited to supply all the electricity that Asia needs if we move fast before others do.

    I read that Saudi Arabia has plans for massive Solar farms to supply the Middle East and Europe and to reserve their oil for industrial uses other than petrol and energy generation.

  48. Historyintime says:
    , but in what world does the ALP gain from excising Australia’s largest labour union from its base?
    ______________
    What does the ALP/union movement gain by representing exploited low paid workers who have been underpaid for decades?

    Well we do know. The dues money paid by the SDA to the ACTU and the ALP to get SDA seats in Parliament.

  50. ltep says:
    Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 7:44 pm

    A bit naughty to ignore this HUGH qualifier on KBs tweet..

    “(Filed for future checking, not necessarily reliable.)”

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