The final Resolve Strategic poll for the Age/Herald campaign provides evidence for the long-delayed narrowing, with Labor down three points on the primary vote since the mid-campaign poll to 31% and the Coalition up a point to 34%. The Greens are down a point from an improbable height last time to 14%, while One Nation are up one to 6%, the United Australia Party are down one to 4%, independents are up two to 6% and others are steady on 4%. The accompanying report provides a two-party preferred result based on historic preference flows of 52-48 in favour of Labor, compared with 54-46 last time. Anthony Albanese has nonetheless narrowed the gap on preferred prime minister, which is in from 39-33 to to 40-36, and he is up three on approval to 40% and steady on disapproval at 48%. Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 50%.
The poll was conducted Thursday through to today from a sample of 2049 compared with the usual 1400 or so, because it “added several hundred telephone responses to the customary online responses to give it a larger base”. This hasn’t made the pollster any more generous with its breakdowns, which remain limited to gender and the three largest states. By my calculation, the Coalition leads by around 51.5-48.5 in New South Wales, which is fully ten points stronger for the Coalition than the previous poll and suggests no swing compared with 2019. Labor’s 53-47 lead in Victoria is also about the same as the 2019 result, and four points weaker for Labor than the previous poll. However, the Coalition is now credited with a lead of 53-47 in Queensland, representing a roughly 5.5% swing to Labor and a shift in Labor’s favour of at least four points compared with the previous poll. The “rest of Australia” measure has shifted around four points in Labor since the previous poll, and around seven points compared with the 2019 result.
With increasing talk about women dooming the Coalition to defeat, the poll offers an interesting take on the gender gap in crediting the Greens 19% support among women compared with 9% among men, feeding into a four-point gap on two-party preferred. Morrison’s personal ratings are in fact quite a bit stronger among women than in the previous result, resulting in only a modest distinction on his net approval, although Morrison leads 45-37 among men but is tied with Albanese at 36-36 among women.
UPDATE: David Crowe of the Age/Herald offers a two-party preferred of 52-48 in one article and 51-49 in another. My calculation splits it right down the middle.
UPDATE 2: The final Essential Research poll of the campaign is probably available on The Guardian’s site by the time you read this – Peter van Onselen tweeted last night that it had Labor leading 51-49. Also just out is an Utting Research poll for The West Australian showing teal independent Kate Chaney leading Liberal member Celia Hammond 52-48 in Curtin, from primary votes of 38% for Hammond, 32% for Chaney, 13% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for the United Australia Party. The poll was conducted Monday from a sample of 514. All this and a lot more will be covered in a new post tomorrow.
”
mundosays:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 11:09 am
Ven @ #837 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 11:06 am
”
mundosays:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:40 am
Snappy Tom @ #798 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 10:35 am
Freya at 9.17
“Face it all, Labor are toast.”
Withering analysis. You forgot to add “I tells ya!” but maybe mundo has trademarked that.
How are the plastic sheets, mundo? Maybe save the cotton ones by putting the plastic layer on top! Slight reduction in comfort…
Bloody awful night. Woke up in despair thinking Labor’s blown another one.
But bounced back a little now.
Sheets on the line.
Lucky for Mrs Mundo I’m in the guest room during this late campaign stage.
”
Mrs. Mundo must be having tough time adjusting to your mood swings.
After 43 years?
”
Normal mood swings are part and parcel of a happy married life (43 years). But I am posting about your pre-election jitters although you are “in the guest room during this late campaign stage.”. 🙂
The thing is you are driving a lot of posters of PB crazy. 🙂
@DRDR
I’ll say the same thing I said to the other guy, not getting involved in a tit-for-tat or accept being called a liar. Can agree to disagree on Dan, but I’m happy to forward my confirmation of my 8-10am time slot at Bellfield for handing out how to vote cards for the ALP, as I have done for the last 20+ years.
I’ll agree my language was a bit strong re Dan, but not sure why people like yourself feel it’s okay to openly berate people for having a different opinion. Anyway, not going to get personal as you did, but to wish you a good day and hope Albo boots out the god awful ScoMo this Saturday
Completely off-topic from polls, elections, running numbers and working the phones, I was wondering what fellow PB’s thoughts are regarding the effectiveness or otherwise of LinkedIn.
I’ve used it both as a manager looking for new staff and as a prospective employee applying for roles advertised on the site.
Does anyone here use it? Does it work for them? I must admit I have come away very disheartened in recent weeks applying for roles and receiving no response or even acknowledgement. Seek is more effective.
There may well be some MPs perhaps brushing up their respective profiles on the site after this weekend.
The Revisionist says:
The interesting phenomena is that, despite continuing gentrification, those seats are further away from the Greens than they were a decade ago.
______________
It would be interesting if that was true, but it’s not. The Greens are in 2pp contention in both seats and have done extraordinary well since 2007. They ALP will lose them eventually.
I agree with the comments of Sprocket and others about Labor’s prospects in Qld, especially in urban seats like Brisbane adn Ryan.
Regardless of your perceptions of rural Qld, in my experience urban Brisbane is not very different to any other capital city.
The LNP should find it very hard to hang onto seats like those, especially since the far right brigade in the Qld LNP such as Canavan have double down on the climate change inaction.
I expect Labor will win at least two seats in Qld. As I said earlier today, even with the narrowing, I still can’t see Morrison forming government after Saturday. Worst case it will be a Labor minority government. Over-optimism and over-pessimism are both unrealistic.
JenAuthor says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:25 am
Actually Reid is half silvertail, half very working class.
I am an odd man out in that I live in the silvertail end but my roots are very mu ch working class.
We have large Italian, Greek and Chinese populations in the silvertail end (so not all likely to be LNP sympathisers) while there’s big Korean, Chinese, Russian and Indian/Sri Lankan groups in the non silvertail end.
As an electorate it is extremely diverse. Locally there is a very strong Labor presence.
I am in Mortlake in an older waterfront unit (not the newer constructions). I didn’t know they had a bad reputation — where did that come from??
—————————————————————
I wasn’t suggesting that the new or older developments had a bad reputation. I was just giving the historical context of what was there before them. It was a working class environment with industrial activities.
I would hope that those sites, where residential developments were later situated, were carefully remediated if necessary because of the toxic nature of the prior activities.
As you drive by Massey Park Golf Course you might not know that that bay was the local garbage dump and a swamp where we played as kids. Used coking coal from the Mortlake gas works was laid down over the garbage and the golf course created on top.
If you saw the excellent ABC series “Grassroots” a couple of decades ago, you will have seen that some of the exterior scenes were shot on the shopping strip on Majors Bay Road. This was a bit strange because the series was about a coastal, beachside municipality. The median strip was where the trams trundled their way to Mortlake and Cabarita from Burwood.
I have found that people on Linkedin who use it a lot are people who need more work. Or companies that can afford someone to post in there a lot. Or recruitment peeps.
I like it as an address book. I find the information posted not useful beyond people patting themselves on the back.
(Grant_ExLibris says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:49 am
Griff,
Fran Bailey commented recently that she sacked ScoMo when he was head of Tourism Australia. Whether that counts as support for ‘anyone but the LNP’ is debatable.)
I read the full story why Bailey fired him, he appointed an advertising company without due diligence, transparency or a property open tender process. Morrison then started to make decisions without informing the Minister of Tourism Bailey first. She could have ended up loosing her port folio because of Morrison. He was fired because he was a loose unit, constantly cutting corners. Morrison was responsible for the Robo Debt that ended up in court because it was illegal.
One thing that is different this election is that there are a substantial number of voters that will vote for the teal independents. Apart from in Bandt’s and a few other independents’ seats, all votes to independents will have washed in via preferences into the major parties in previous elections. This time round though, a large number of these independent votes will not be available for preference distribution because the Teals will win a number of seats.
Dan is either the messiah or a very naughty boy. There is very little in between. There has been a whole lot of media to drive this narrative…
The Liberal Echo Chamber thinks this is hilarious and will change how people vote:
I doubt it will change an undecided voters mind at all…
Has anyone noticed that the 2pp for essential doesn’t add up to 100!
BK
I agree. The Teals are going to play a major part in the result on Saturday.
@JQ – I would imagine rounding…
“nathsays:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 11:23 am
The Revisionist says:
The interesting phenomena is that, despite continuing gentrification, those seats are further away from the Greens than they were a decade ago.
______________
It would be interesting if that was true, but it’s not. The Greens are in 2pp contention in both seats and have done extraordinary well since 2007. They ALP will lose them eventually.”
In 2016 the Greens went
51 to 49 in Batman
55 to 45 in Wills
6 years on and they have no chance. Labor will have a 2CP in the 60s in both seats.
The Greens know it too. Last election there were Greens corflutes and “Stop Labor’s Adani Mine” plastered across the two seats and now there are barely even any candidate ones
The whole Greens manifest destiny aint really coughing up much over this last decade but you keep lighting those candles
Rocket Rocket @ #774 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 10:21 am
+1
Re: Curtin Poll. Pollbludgers think on money that Chaney will win? What is Utting Research track record like?
Wage price index went up only 0.7% in the March quarter.
Just a a quick look at the essential poll data
Labor and Liberal primary votes unchanged and a 1% fall in the Green vote and a 1% rise for one nation.
Albos personal numbers are up as his preferred PM data. All very minor and not much to see here…. Basically no change .. calm down .. still a solid Labor win
Resolve’s change is purely driven by the very odd change in the NSW primary numbers with Labor apparently falling from 41% to 28% and the Tory vote rising from 30 to 39 … with NSW being 32% of the population any error here has a large weighting in the final numbers. It’s a dud.
There no doubt is some tightening and I still reckon around 52.5% and low 80’s is the result we will see. Teals 3-4.
Calm down and enjoy the beautiful Sydney day.
So wages have risen 0.7% in the March quarter (from January to March) and they have risen 2.4% from the same time last year.
Inflation is running at 5.1% – so people have taken a 2.7% pay cut.
The Revisionist says:
In 2016 the Greens went
51 to 49 in Batman
55 to 45 in Wills
_______________
And in 2007 they were on 13% and 17% pv respectively. I call that a dramatic increase in support.
Great Aunt Eunice says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:43 am
Edward, you know that that my dear little sister, Mathilde had a nasty turn when she read your scurrilous lies about my demise on this very site. As you’d also well know, we in the the family all used to joke that we’d know when Great Aunt Mathilde was dead because she’d stop talking, and now cruelly having had a stroke, she can’t.
If by some miracle she lives past the election, which Mr Albanese will win, and she regains the power of speech, she’ll never talk to you again.
中华人民共和国
Great Aunt Eunice I was horrified to hear about your little sister. Edward has also been stalking that poor Mrs Keneally (secretly I think he may have the “Hots” for her”.
He has been leaving Mr Boerwars’ Octopus alone though. I think little sister will live long enough to gain her speech. I hope you enjoy a Shandy on Saturday night.
Just Quietly @ #846 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 9:32 am
That’s because they don’t force responses or exclude undecided voters, so it never does.
The seasonally adjusted Wage Price Index (WPI) rose 0.7 per cent in March quarter 2022 for the second consecutive quarter, according to data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
The rate of annual wage growth was 2.4 per cent, up from 2.3 per cent last quarter, the highest annual rate recorded since December 2018. Michelle Marquardt, head of Prices Statistics at the ABS, said “The annual rate of wage growth has risen for each of the last five quarters from a low point of 1.4 per cent in December quarter 2020.”
Wage rises across the private sector were the main driver of growth over the quarter, increasing 0.7 per cent for March quarter 2022 and annually 2.4 per cent. Regular annual wage and salary reviews drove wage growth for the sector, with a small number of larger increases paid to retain and attract in-demand skilled workers.
Public sector wages grew 0.6 per cent for March quarter 2022 and annually 2.2 per cent.
https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/annual-wage-growth-24
The new wage growth (decline) figures should allow Labor to take the momentum back.
So when is Newspoll? Tonight or tomorrow night?
Whoopie do. Still not keeping up with inflation, which is galloping ahead.
I remember in 2010, 2016 and 2019 Pamela Williams (previously of the Australian and AFR) wrote very detailed 2-3 part articles on the ALP/LNP campaigns. It focused on what the internal polling was showing and what messages were cutting through etc.
Not sure where she is working these days but would be very interested to see this type of election post mortem after Saturday.
Ipsos tonight, newspoll friday, yougov exit poll saturday
AEC ✏️
@AusElectoralCom
More than 3.21 million people have cast a vote at an early voting centre so far. #ausvotes
⬆️than the final 2016 number
⬆️than the same stage in 2019 despite less days
We’ve also received 2.62 million postal vote applications. ⬆️from 1.5m in 2019 (last day to apply today).
(guardian)
Quick off the mark..
Reid voter her. Who has kept off PB for the past 2.999 years as I didn’t do too well after the election result last time. I ended up going to test drive EVs the next day to ease the pain (I am now an EV driver and will never look back).
I think what people are forgetting is that there is also an Independent(Natalie Baini) running in Reid (former Lib potential candidate) whos HTV cards have Sally(ALP) on 5 and Fiona(Lib) at 6. The Lib Dems also have ALP above LNP. Also, I haven’t forgotten the promised DFO interchange upgrade by Scott Morrison and Fiona Martin that never happened only to be re-announced at this election and wont start till 2024 or something. Also, not too sure anyone has seen much of Fiona Martin for the past 3 years. In my area, I have also seen a lot more I am voting for Sally than the liberal posters this time(make what you want of that)
On a side note, I have YouTube premium, ad blocker, Netflix…. so the only time I see any ads are when my wife turns on Foxtel or if I go to certain sites I support earning ad revenue like the Guardian that I have my adblocker disabled for (To be honest I hate the Ads more for all the RAM they hog). I could be wrong, but why isn’t Labor running video ads with everyone calling Scott Morrison a Liar? Isn’t that election ad gold that they are not using? And doesn’t that resonate with voters and remind them they cant trust a word he says? I remember thinking at the 2019 election why isn’t Labor running more ads, All I kept seeing was ‘the Bill we cant afford’ ads. They have been a bit better this time but I still come across more Lib ads even though I know that the ALP is spending more than the Libs(and this isn’t on Foxtel)
Why is Sprocket allowed to post election propaganda and render the blog unusable! 🙂
Fulvio? you want to weigh in here?
Do,you use Facebook dy/dx?
Alpha Zero @ #858 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 11:31 am
Ya reckon?
Wages will now be the issue of the day, and rightly so. Labor will be on the front foot over these woeful wages growth figures.
That post was to comment on and inform the vibe and political tactic of responding to events within 15 minutes?
Back to rummaging through back catalogs of funny Bill Shorten photos for you, nath
SA Bludger @ #823 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 10:50 am
Cynically, by then it’s only worthy as click-bait. Though In fairness I suppose, that’s all they’ve ever been. Unless you accept they’re also marketing tools for political outcomes.
It’s fine sprocket. I don’t have a problem with you. In fact, I find you a bit endearing.
Ven @ #849 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 11:19 am
I hear you Ven 🙂
nath @ #886 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 11:54 am
Me too!
I don’t see ads either, and agree that ads with ‘voice overs’ of those on record (Macron et al) calling Morrison a liar would pack some punch. It just blows everything he’s said during the campaign out of the water. Once a liar always a liar. But, I have no expertise in what works, or the blow black effects of overly negative advertising.
Thank you young Mr Upnorth.
During my pregnancies my doctor advised a pint of good stout to be taken with my evening meals on a Wednesday and Saturday , I’ve continued with this my whole life, and believe it has contributed to my incredible longevity.
When that delightful Mr Green calls it for Mr Albanese on Saturday I think I’ll even have a splash or two of Bushmills whiskey.
By the way, my sources tell me Mrs Keneally will romp it home in Fowler.
sprocket_ @ #415 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 11:48 am
If only Labor could put out a quick fire ad:
‘There’s a hole in our pockets, dear ScoMo, dear ScoMo
There’s a hole in our pockets where our money should be!’
sprocket_says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 11:51 am
Do,you use Facebook dy/dx?
Sparingly. Big on Twitter. May be once a fortnight on Facebook
Great Aunt Eunice says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 11:56 am
Thank you young Mr Upnorth.
During my pregnancies my doctor advised a pint of good stout to be taken with my evening meals on a Wednesday and Saturday , I’ve continued with this my whole life, and believe it has contributed to my incredible longevity.
When that delightful Mr Green calls it for Mr Albanese on Saturday I think I’ll even have a splash or two of Bushmills whiskey.
By the way, my sources tell me Mrs Keneally will romp it home in Fowler.
中华人民共和国
Thats wonderful my dear – a wee tipple will be well deserved. Now you keep safe and keep Edward away from your dresser.
William,
A few questions, if I may. Looking at Bludgertrack I noticed that the Greens have steadily declined until the calling of the election, then increased their vote in the last few months when looking at the trend line.
However, looking at individual polls, it looks to me like the variance in their primary vote has increased much more substantially than prior to the election being called, and more than I’d expect.
So, do you agree with this and if so, could this be due to different polling companies entering the field with different sampling techniques distorting the Green vote (and Labor and Liberals as well)? Do you think any of the polling companies are more likely to be right on the Green vote than others?
Don’t answer if you’re too busy, just curious that’s all.
nath at 11:54 am
It’s really sprocket’s avatar that gets your heart a flutter .
Re those wage figures, I know that in the engineering/construction field, wages and salaries are increasing at much more than 2.4% – it’s double digit in some cases. I’ve heard similar in some other industries. There must therefore be a lot of people in other fields who are getting little or nothing…
Labors goose is cooked. Remember how in 2019 you guys were all so sure Labor were going to romp it in “cos the polls”?? Yeah… that’s 2022 again.
The best way to know if the Government is about to be tossed out is the feeling on the ground and you can tell when people want “change” and when people are in a “meh” mood… and currently they are in a “meh” mood which means sticking to the devil they know. The ABC will do it’s best to campaign for Albo.. but at the end of the day hardly anybody watches ABC these days anyway.
Get ready for 3 More Years.