Roy Morgan has dropped its weekly federal campaign poll, which shows Labor’s two-party preferred lead narrowing from 54.5-45.5 to more believable 53-47. While this is Labor’s weakest two-party result from Roy Morgan since October, the respondent-allocated preferences measure the pollster used until last week had Labor at least one point higher when it was tied with the Coalition on the primary vote, and sometimes substantially higher. The two-party numbers are now determined by allocating preferences flows as per the result of the 2019 election.
The poll shows both major parties on what even by recent standards are remarkably low primary votes of 34% each, with Labor down 1.5% on last week and the Coalition steady. The Greens are on 13%, One Nation is on 4% and the United Australia Party is on 1%, all unchanged on last week, with independents up half to 9% and “others” up one to 5%.
The usual two-party state breakdowns have Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales, out from 51.5-48.5 last week for a swing of around 4% compared with 2019; 57-43 in Victoria, in from 61-39, also for a swing of around 4%; 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, in from 57.5-42.5 for a swing of about 10%; and 58-42 from the tiny Tasmanian sample. The Coalition leads 53-47 in Queensland, in from 53.5-46.5 for a swing to Labor of about 5.5%, and 51-49 in South Australia, its first lead on this small sample measure since October, and a rather stark contrast to Labor’s 62.5-37.5 lead last week (the result in 2019 was 50.7-49.3 in favour of Labor).
The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1366. It will naturally be Morgan’s last of the campaign if it sticks to its usual schedule, although it may well pull something from its hat on the eve of the big day. The final Essential Research poll will reportedly be out on Wednesday, and it’s a known known that Newspoll and Ipsos each have a poll to come (it’s disappointing that we haven’t seen any state breakdowns from Newspoll, but hope springs eternal), and I assume the same will be true of Resolve Strategic. Until then:
• Ten News is teasing yet another result of Liberal Party internal polling from Peter van Onselen, this time suggesting Katherine Deves is “in with a shot” of unseating Zali Steggall in Warringah, seemingly along with results from other seats including Parramatta and Bennelong. UPDATE: This turns out to show the Liberals trailing on two-party preferred measures that include an uncommitted component by 49-48 in Reid, 50-43 in Bennelong and 50-41 in Parramatta, with particularly heavy deficits among women, but by only 53-47 in Warringah.
• Tom McIlroy of the Financial Review reports a Redbridge Group poll for North Sydney commissioned by Climate 200 has Liberal member Trent Zimmerman on 33.3%, independent Kylea Tink on 23.5% and Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw on 17.8%, with 7.5% undecided. The poll was conducted between May 3 and 14 from a sample of 1267.
• James Morrow of the Daily Telegraph reports a poll of Fowler conducted by Laidlaw Campaigns, presumably for independent Dai Le’s campaign, has Kristina Keneally leading Le by 45% to 38% after distribution of preferences and without excluding the 17% undecided. The poll also found Le was viewed favourably by 28% and unfavourably by 10%, while Keneally was at 24% and 30%. It was conducted three weeks ago from a sample of 618.
• Katharine Murphy of The Guardian notes a campaign endorsement for Katy Gallagher by Julia Gillard reflects concern that a win for independent candidate David Pocock in the Australian Capital Territory Senate race could come at the expense of Gallagher, and not Liberal Senator Zed Seselja as had generally presumed. A recent Redbridge poll suggested Pocock had gauged enough of his support from Labor to reduce Gallagher to 27%, well below the one-third quota for election
• The Australian Electoral Commission has issued a statement announcing that advertising by conservative activist group Advance Australia linking independents Zali Steggall and David Pocock to the Greens is in breach of the Electoral Act. The relevant section is section 329, banning material “likely to mislead or deceive an elector in relation to the casting of a vote”. The section is very commonly used as the basis of unsuccessful complaints about misleading political advertising, when it has been consistently been found to apply very narrowly to efforts to deceive voters into casting their ballots differently from how they intended. However, the statement suggests that the ruling made after the 2019 election over Chinese language signs encouraging votes for the Liberals in the seat of Chisholm, although dismissed, offers “a new judicial precedent” that seemingly paved the way for a more expansive interpretation.
• Ben Raue has produced highly instructive charts showing how each state’s two-party preferred vote has deviatied from the national result at elections going back to 1958.
• At the risk of getting ahead of ourselves, Andrew Clennell of Sky News reports that Josh Frydenberg is “said to have the numbers” against Peter Dutton to succeed Scott Morrison as Liberal leader should the party lose the election.
950 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Labor”
Freedom Boy could be set free very soon…
May 17, 2022 – 4.35pm
Climate change inaction and the unpopularity of the prime minister is weighing on Tim Wilson’s primary vote, with Climate 200 polling suggesting his teal competitor, Zoe Daniel, could garner around 53 per cent of preferences, getting her over the line in the Melbourne Liberal stronghold of Goldstein.
It shows the incumbent MP Mr Wilson sitting on a primary vote of 36 per cent against the former ABC reporter’s 26.9 per cent, with 8.4 per cent undecided.
The Redbridge poll of 1170 people was conducted from May 3-14 and was its sixth poll of the affluent bayside electorate. It was commissioned by Simon Holmes a Court’s activist group, Climate 200, and made available to Ms Daniel’s campaign.
Based on a smaller sub-sample of 339, the survey also shows Ms Daniel winning 52.6 per cent of second preferences, but with 34.5 per cent undecided. If she captures a similar proportion of undecideds, she would win the seat, the first time the Liberal Party would not have held the previously safe electorate.
Yes Victoria.. Tracy Grimshaw’s interview should be well worth watching. Who could forget her withering “Where have you been?” question to Morrison when he admitted he was clueless about the concerns of women in Parliament.
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 6:24 pm
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 6:16 pm
If the lib/nats combined primary vote is going to be stuck between 34-36%
36% The lib/nats will get around 60 seats
35% The lib/nats will get around 53 seats
34% the libs/nats will get around 47 seats
33% the lib/nats will get around 42 seats
Now give us the Labor seat projections starting from 31% when you have a minute.
ok that is a 2% swing against Labor
31% Labor would get around 65 seats
30% Labor would get around 60 seats
29% Labor would get round 56 seats
28% Labor would get around 51 seats
BREAKING: Elon Musk says purchase of Twitter will not proceed unless he is assured that less than 5% of Twitter accounts were fake
Even Yabba’s recorder music has political implications.
The Lorax @ #897 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 6:00 pm
And a big drop for the LNP in QLD?
I feel everyone is over it. 8 weeks was a very long time, Especially with Easter and Anzac day.
Btw, it snowed on mount wellington today and I had to be up at 5am. It sucked. What do they say about winter elections and the long march into the snow. Scomo is toast.
Fake polls, why are we surprised.
I heard earlier today, the Liberals canvassed the media and wanted this. I was told to look for it.
And Lo and behold there it is,
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 5:17 pm
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 5:03 pm
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 12:16 pm
“Does anyone know what Brisbane brewery the Greens launch was at? Just so I know never to buy their beer again. Ta.
Black Hops Brisbane.”
Thanks! Oh no. I love Black Hops. Oh well. No more Hornets for me.
I’m sure they’ll survive without your conditional patronage.
Fair enough. But you have clearly underestimated my beer budget.
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 6:25 pm
Taylormaid: “Now give us”
Learn how to use a calculator.
Thanks for the tip but I will be waiting for Scott. He is the blog expert on all things primary votes.
I resolved to pay no attention to Morgan or Resolve polling. I will find better things to do with my time – not ready to get the plastic sheets out for the bed just yet. Show me a knock down in Labor’s PV [31 in resolve is just laughable] in Newspoll PV and 2PP for Labor on Friday night and I will pay the piper. This is all last week pre election noise that sells advertising space. White noise !!
And more leaks from NSW Liberal Party to PVO on Ch10… must have been missed by Jim Reed
It does feel like an eternity but the campaign is only 6 weeks long.
The resolve narrowing is essentially based on a crash in NSW of the Labor vote from 40% to 28% in 2 weeks… this is farce
So NSW is 39% Tory and 28% Labor … think we found the problem…,
What argues against the Resolve poll is iits numbers for women. On most questions they had women liking Scotty more than Albo … that I CANNOT believe
This may be the longest week of the history of time. And it’s only Tuesday.
This Resolve is bollocks!
L-NP 34 ALP 31 Green 14 ON 6 UAP 4 IND 6 other 4
Move 3-4 from GRN back to ALP and it might look about right.
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 6:15 pm
That idea of unemployment under 4% seems like a fading dream…)
Unemployment is about 8.5%, don’t believe that 4% unemployment bullshit.
The 2016 campaign was 8 weeks from memory.
steve davis says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 6:28 pm
“The poll companies need to shut their doors if they get the result wrong this time.”
By having a marginal 52/48 result means that Resolve can play both sides of a the fence. A Labor win and they see themselves as being correct (irrespective of margin). If Libs get that close (or marginally better they can say it was within the MOE and there was a last minute swing.
However, people simply “rubbishing” the I’ll because the PV’s don’t match their expectations sound a bit like simply denials. It probably isn’t a deliberate bias. It may be an unrepresentative sample based on sampling methodology. It may simply be a outlier. Only time will tell.
If Scomo does get up, I might be spending my time in NZ.
@Conf – Yep, and I remember EVERY. SECOND. Yet, it didn’t feel as interminable than this one.
So in every poll – published or internal – Morrison’s approval from women is flatlining.
But in the Resolve Poll, women approve of Morrison more than Albanese.
The accurate result will be on saturday night
Is it an election campaign without threats of fleeing to New Zealand?
Random thought but I wonder if a lot of ALP voters voted early to get it over with and maybe that’s why they aren’t answering polls as much anymore. A lot of early voting tends to not be a great sign for the incumbent
“ Random thought but I wonder if a lot of ALP voters voted early to get it over with”
Same thing was said in 2019 and early vote showed a larger swing to Coalition than the on the day votes.
Some on PB now looking for Newspoll to save them after bagging them for 3 years.
There really isn’t any point trying to reason or unskew.
The poll stands as a data point, everything about it smells wrong – but the only way to see will be on Saturday night.
Holdenhillbilly: “BREAKING: Elon Musk says purchase of Twitter will not proceed unless he is assured that less than 5% of Twitter accounts were fake”
Good. Back to the space rockets Musk. tick tock. I want my space rocket goddamit.
The most politically consequential event with four days left, will be Thursdays unemployment rate. If it has a three in front of the rate, it will play into Morrison’s hands like nothing else. And he will campaign on that until 6pm Saturday.
Long time irritator from the land of The Land and The Irrigator.
I’m feeling very anxious.
I can’t see Labor winning a majority.
Wait, really 6 weeks. Feels way longer.
Socrates @ #824 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 5:56 pm
That photo of Morrison and his campaigning wife speaks to me of patriarchy, possession, and a disturbing power imbalance, albeit consensual. ‘To have and to hold’ ain’t even the start of it. I can’t imagine it appealing in the slightest to women voters thinking of not voting for Morrison because of his attitude to women.
Very sombre mood in the Liberal camp down at the Pre Poll in Woy Woy tonight.
Pat Farmer down there campaigning for Fat Palmer again.
Ok Thanks Scott.
‘Can’t wait to show her more of the NT’.
So they’re going to become grey nomads after the election? 😀
nath @ #763 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 6:33 pm
So, so deep. Bach was apolitical. The ‘Art of the Fugue’ is an intellectual and musical triumph. Way, way beyond your ability to even begin to comprehend, as you demonstrate so clearly, day after day.
How lucky were we the resolve dropped right during the news for tonight.
It’s like the gods were smiling on the LNP or something
I am surprised that after a week with no major events to explain a massive poll shift, people are freaking out!
First question. Why couldn’t they find enough online samples…in 2022…yet they managed to find unbiased phone numbers to call…in 2022….hmmm. I’m calling bill ship. Perhaps they excluded people who already voted? Maybe the survey was extremely painful and all the young people just dropped out? What ever the reason, it would be hard to find a reason that does not risk survey bias.
Then ask, how did they manage to find a pool of people who answer the telephone phone….in 2022… by only calling retirement homes? How likely is this panicked short term sampling change done methodically? Zero, given the fact they switched to phone calls mid election is not exactly methodical…
While I think the election will be closer than most polls. I’m giving this last minute survey method fail, panic, and call people poll, the zero weight it deserves.
I think there are two reasons (perhaps more) accounting for Morgan & Resolve. First, electors customarily tune in a bit more in the last week of a campaign. Second, Morrison’s announcement at the eleventh hour of drawing down super is most likely a vote winner, despite most of the informed rightly claiming it’s a dud – tell that to a 30-year-old couple attempting to buy a home. I further think that Labor’s decision to dismiss it outright was a big mistake, given it’s matched most of the Cons’ commitments. Essential, Newspoll may tell a different tale but they won’t be that dissimilar. Labor by ten?
The LNP incessantly advertising with that annoying bucket ad on SBS Vice is pissing money into the wind 😯
Xenu @ #927 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 6:40 pm
I had the same thought, re early voters no longer being polled. With the majority of votes being cast before the final day, it makes polling less relevant towards the end.
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 6:58 pm
The ‘Art of the Fugue’ is an intellectual and musical triumph.
I love best the Contrapunctus number 9 which I even learned to play. It was Glenn Gould’s organ recording that motivated me.
There’s a new thread.
I look forward to Australia devouring Scotty come Saturday night 😀
here we go again at 3.44
Thanks for taking the time to phone Liberal HQ re Howard’s many shortcomings. I’m sure they appreciated the feedback and earnestly undertook to forward it to him!
Douglas and Milko says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 5:52 pm
Reid is now very much a silver tail seat. My son lived there for quite some years, and despite the fact that he and Sam Dastyari were neighbours / played with their kids at the park together, the surrounding denizens were Liberal to a person.
Reid has the prime real-estate of Gladesville bay, with wonderful yacht moorings, decent sized backyards, while being a very quick commute to the CBD business hubs of either Barangaroo, or North Sydney by ferry.
Reid is not coming back to the Labor fold anytime soon, is my guess.
Sad to hear that. I grew up in Reid (Lowe in Billy McMahon’s heyday).
We moved from lower Ryde to central Concord when it was a lower middle-class suburb. My Mum used an unexpected inheritance to buy a house for 2,000 pounds while my Dad was with the AIF in the Middle East. That house is now worth about $3 million.
The area has become very trendy, despite the fact that new housing developments in parts of Mortlake and Cabarita have a somewhat toxic history. I notice that they now don’t mention Mortlake and call it Breakfast Point or Concord.
In Mortlake there was the AGL gas works and across Tennyson Road on the riverside were numerous chemical businesses. At Cabarita, next to the Park, was the BALM paint factory (British Australian Lead Manufacturers) and next door a sheep dip factory. I wouldn’t want think about what crud is at the bottom of Canada Bay.
Across the Parramatta, during World War II, below the house in Gladesville where I was born, they used the bay as a dump for aviation fuel containers. And along the shore they had warning signs SHARK do not swim.
I don’t think the developers mentioned that in their promotional material that referred to “harbor-side living.”
The main election pages of the deadwood version of The Worst Australian newspaper here in the cave surprisingly positive for Albo. A double page spread on page 6-7 dominated by a picture of Albo and a v large headline
The ‘pro business’ bit a bigly surprise from a paper like this is.