Morgan: 53-47 to Labor

Roy Morgan ends its weekly campaign series finding the major parties collectively plumbing new depths, but with Labor in far the better position of the two. Plus yet more internal polling scuttlebutt, this time from Warringah, Fowler and North Sydney.

Roy Morgan has dropped its weekly federal campaign poll, which shows Labor’s two-party preferred lead narrowing from 54.5-45.5 to more believable 53-47. While this is Labor’s weakest two-party result from Roy Morgan since October, the respondent-allocated preferences measure the pollster used until last week had Labor at least one point higher when it was tied with the Coalition on the primary vote, and sometimes substantially higher. The two-party numbers are now determined by allocating preferences flows as per the result of the 2019 election.

The poll shows both major parties on what even by recent standards are remarkably low primary votes of 34% each, with Labor down 1.5% on last week and the Coalition steady. The Greens are on 13%, One Nation is on 4% and the United Australia Party is on 1%, all unchanged on last week, with independents up half to 9% and “others” up one to 5%.

The usual two-party state breakdowns have Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales, out from 51.5-48.5 last week for a swing of around 4% compared with 2019; 57-43 in Victoria, in from 61-39, also for a swing of around 4%; 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, in from 57.5-42.5 for a swing of about 10%; and 58-42 from the tiny Tasmanian sample. The Coalition leads 53-47 in Queensland, in from 53.5-46.5 for a swing to Labor of about 5.5%, and 51-49 in South Australia, its first lead on this small sample measure since October, and a rather stark contrast to Labor’s 62.5-37.5 lead last week (the result in 2019 was 50.7-49.3 in favour of Labor).

The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1366. It will naturally be Morgan’s last of the campaign if it sticks to its usual schedule, although it may well pull something from its hat on the eve of the big day. The final Essential Research poll will reportedly be out on Wednesday, and it’s a known known that Newspoll and Ipsos each have a poll to come (it’s disappointing that we haven’t seen any state breakdowns from Newspoll, but hope springs eternal), and I assume the same will be true of Resolve Strategic. Until then:

• Ten News is teasing yet another result of Liberal Party internal polling from Peter van Onselen, this time suggesting Katherine Deves is “in with a shot” of unseating Zali Steggall in Warringah, seemingly along with results from other seats including Parramatta and Bennelong. UPDATE: This turns out to show the Liberals trailing on two-party preferred measures that include an uncommitted component by 49-48 in Reid, 50-43 in Bennelong and 50-41 in Parramatta, with particularly heavy deficits among women, but by only 53-47 in Warringah.

• Tom McIlroy of the Financial Review reports a Redbridge Group poll for North Sydney commissioned by Climate 200 has Liberal member Trent Zimmerman on 33.3%, independent Kylea Tink on 23.5% and Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw on 17.8%, with 7.5% undecided. The poll was conducted between May 3 and 14 from a sample of 1267.

• James Morrow of the Daily Telegraph reports a poll of Fowler conducted by Laidlaw Campaigns, presumably for independent Dai Le’s campaign, has Kristina Keneally leading Le by 45% to 38% after distribution of preferences and without excluding the 17% undecided. The poll also found Le was viewed favourably by 28% and unfavourably by 10%, while Keneally was at 24% and 30%. It was conducted three weeks ago from a sample of 618.

• Katharine Murphy of The Guardian notes a campaign endorsement for Katy Gallagher by Julia Gillard reflects concern that a win for independent candidate David Pocock in the Australian Capital Territory Senate race could come at the expense of Gallagher, and not Liberal Senator Zed Seselja as had generally presumed. A recent Redbridge poll suggested Pocock had gauged enough of his support from Labor to reduce Gallagher to 27%, well below the one-third quota for election

• The Australian Electoral Commission has issued a statement announcing that advertising by conservative activist group Advance Australia linking independents Zali Steggall and David Pocock to the Greens is in breach of the Electoral Act. The relevant section is section 329, banning material “likely to mislead or deceive an elector in relation to the casting of a vote”. The section is very commonly used as the basis of unsuccessful complaints about misleading political advertising, when it has been consistently been found to apply very narrowly to efforts to deceive voters into casting their ballots differently from how they intended. However, the statement suggests that the ruling made after the 2019 election over Chinese language signs encouraging votes for the Liberals in the seat of Chisholm, although dismissed, offers “a new judicial precedent” that seemingly paved the way for a more expansive interpretation.

• Ben Raue has produced highly instructive charts showing how each state’s two-party preferred vote has deviatied from the national result at elections going back to 1958.

• At the risk of getting ahead of ourselves, Andrew Clennell of Sky News reports that Josh Frydenberg is “said to have the numbers” against Peter Dutton to succeed Scott Morrison as Liberal leader should the party lose the election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

950 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 17 of 19
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  2. Swan (WA), Boothby (SA), Pearce (WA), Reid (NSW), Bass (Tas), Robertson (NSW), Chisolm (Vic), Hasluck (WA), Banks (NSW), Braddon (Tas), Lindsay (Qld)

    according to that aef site, these 11 from most certain ALP gain to >50% chance of ALP gain.

    i literally think it is impossible for ALP to not overtake Coalition on seats, and i cant see how they do not get to 76 even with extreme ‘narrowing’ from here in. Just too many paths including several decent shots outside this list…

    Outside of this, feels like best case for Coalition is to limit losses to Goldstone and retake Kelly’s seat. So, just one added to Bandt, Wilkie, Sharkie, Steggal, Haines

    Worse than 76-69-6 would be a catastrophe

    I imagine anything more than 60 for the coalition will feel acceptablish

  3. If the gender poll is right then its a 1996 style election result because women tend to be the swing voters and they buried Keating and are now coming to bury Morrison but Morrison’s biggest political mistake was to govern for the tradie blokes because they are not the swingers.

  4. Interesting comment on the Herald Sun Election article.
    I had not made this connection earlier

    So it ‘won’t be easy under Albanese’ apparently (well according to the right whingers)….but wouldn’t this be in line with one of the Lib’s finest, Malcolm Fraser who famously said “life wasn’t meant to be easy”?

  6. Ch 7 news preview – as expected they bring up Albo’s “hasty exit”. But of course we expect that from Stokes and his lackeys.

  7. I have also tested positive for COVID today, damn frustrating was heading out tonight to catch up with a friend who has been living in Germany for 2o years.

    Now in ISO until next Tuesday, hoping for some positive on another front on Saturday.

  10. I asked this upblog….keen for news about whether we have witnessed that rare bird…political fairness:

    “As I have said…I rarely watch TV….but from PB reporting would it be accurate to say that Channel 10 is being fair and balanced in its reporting….certainly in comparison to 7 and 9”

  11. jt1983 says:
    Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 5:18 pm
    Reid close… but Bennelong and Parramatta with large leads

    Bennelong labor candidate Jerome Laxale is ex Ryde mayor with a lot of local name recognition and is running a very good campaign.

  12. Are the Russians beginning to admit they are going to lose their war?

    Francis Scarr
    @francis_scarr
    · 11h
    In an extremely rare moment of candour on Russian state TV today, defence columnist Mikhail Khodaryonok gave a damning assessment of Russia’s war in Ukraine and his country’s international isolation. It’s fairly long but worth your time so I’ve added subtitles.

    https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1526293852704890882?s=20&t=n8N4S-QDXEc8DUYmLDE0tQ

  13. Scout says:
    Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 5:40 pm

    I have also tested positive for COVID today, damn frustrating was heading out tonight to catch up with a friend who has been living in Germany for 2o years.

    Now in ISO until next Tuesday, hoping for some positive on another front on Saturday.
    中华人民共和国
    All the best matey. Saturday will juice you up. Best of luck.

  14. The poling mentioned on Sky on Sunday had Reid at 53-47 to Labor. So what is “closer than people think”? Maybe it is 52-48? Either way, we have been constantly hearing that it is a good chance to be a Labor gain, so hopefully that remains the case.

    On the Coalition super housing scam, for what it is worth, which is probably not much, the social media reaction I have seen since the announcement has been far more negative than positive, even in some comment threads that usually tend to skew to the right. Pleasantly surprised, but I guess hardly scientific.

  15. Scout:

    Bummer and worst timing! Hope it doesn’t strike you too badly. I’ve heard varying reports from people I know who’ve had it – some mild, others debilitating.

  16. re: Teals. I just remember last election Julian Burnside going as a green. Great candidate. Almost won it. And he was a green!! This time, that’s why the nutters are trying to associate the Teals with the greens. If the greens had any insight they’d reflect on that, but meh.

    But this time the Teals aren’t greens. They’re like Steggall. So how do you allocate preferences on primaries while polling? How do you weight the respondents?

    Is there a precedent for this in oz history? Let’s, just say, 10 well funded actual independents. Two are favourites. There are three or four 50/50’s. Some others with chances. Not an actual party. Does anyone know?

  17. BeaglieBoy

    Certainly my own observation of the commercial channels is that Ten have been the fairest, followed by Nine a distant second, then Seven a very distant third.

  18. Evan,

    jt1983 – yeah, if Bennelong and Parramatta are swinging to Labor, no reason Reid isn’t either.
    Personally I’d love Labor to take Bennelong because Jerome Laxale is a bloody good bloke, and for the Labor margin in Parramatta to go up a lot because of the shit Andrew Charlton has had put on him by the Daily telegraph and 2GB especially.
    As for Katherine Deves supposedly with a chance of winning Warringah, nah, not buying that one.

    Reid is now very much a silver tail seat. My son lived there for quite some years, and despite the fact that he and Sam Dastyari were neighbours / played with their kids at the park together, the surrounding denizens were Liberal to a person.

    Reid has the prime real-estate of Gladesville bay, with wonderful yacht moorings, decent sized backyards, while being a very quick commute to the CBD business hubs of either Barangaroo, or North Sydney by ferry.

    Reid is not coming back to the Labor fold anytime soon, is my guess.

  19. Sorry to hear that Scout. I guess we’ll be chatting on Saturday night here. I’m just not going out Saturday. Hope you get the easy one.

  23. Thanks Matt….that was my impression from numerous PB posts over these last 6 weeks….Fair enough, if there is a gaff then report it. But dont bang on about it for a fortnight.

    I think labor should introduce a fairness and truth legislation with regard to reporting the news. Its a distortion and corruption of our democracy to allow this to go on any longer. We dont want to be America with their riven society.

    I applaud Channel 10 for at least a semblance of balance

  24. Who couldn’t have been moved by the heart warming photos of Scomo with Jen campaigning in Darwin earlier today? Where else would you take the love of you life? Scomo will give Jen a wonderful visit, showing her all the marginal seats.
    (The girls are old enough to be OK for a few days back in Kirribilli on their own).

    Yet there may have been a coincidental political benefit for Morrison showing his feminine side, with a warm controlling embrace, which this Crikey article highlights:
    “Women voters stopped Trump from getting a second term. Will they stop Morrison?
    Women will decide the outcome of this election. So why is no one acknowledging this?”
    https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/05/17/will-women-voters-stop-morrison/?utm_campaign=Daily&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter

  25. Mexicanbeemer
    “but Morrison’s biggest political mistake was to govern for the tradie blokes because they are not the swingers.”
    ====
    He doesn’t know how not to. It’s not possible due to his mental illness.
    Women have a permanent place in his head, and he is a literal definition of the word ‘patriarchal’.
    So he was always going to go for them like he’s a lost soul from the manosphere, and always not going to do well with the ladies.
    Many innovation! Much creative.

  26. Thank god women have the vote otherwise I swear we’d be lumbered with PM Morrison until he croaks. Eternally grateful.

  27. D&M
    Reid is a marginal seat tending to the Liberals but this time the ALP go in as favourite and Fiona Martin hasn’t helped her changes by confusing the ALP candidate and the women KK beat for presection.

  28. Bellweather
    “Thank god women have the vote otherwise I swear we’d be lumbered with PM Morrison until he croaks. Eternally grateful.”

    I’m sure Morrison’s Pentecostal faction would correct that earlier mistake in Australian politics if they could.

  29. Now the Teals are hitting the mad Super Housing Policy.

    “A policy divide over housing has opened up in the key battleground seat of Wentworth in the final days of the election campaign, with independent candidate Allegra Spender rejecting the government’s bid to unlock superannuation for house deposits.

    Spender said the Coalition’s policy would probably push up house prices – a view shared by prominent economists and partly conceded by Superannuation Minister Jane Hume – and that was “the last thing we need”.

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/spender-sides-with-labor-over-coalition-on-raiding-super-for-housing-20220517-p5am0o.html

  30. Uhlmann citing new Resolve poll at 51-49 TPP to Labor.

    Labor’s PV down 3 points to 33 per cent; LNP up 1 point to 31 per cent.

  34. When voters were asked to name the parties that would receive their preferences, the results showed Labor held a lead of 51 to 49 per cent in two-party terms, a significant narrowing in the election contest from the result of 54 to 46 per cent two weeks ago.

    When the two-party vote is calculated using historical preference flows as they were cast at the last election, the result suggest that Labor leads by 52 to 48 per cent, also tightening the outcome from the result of 54 to 46 when measured the same way in the last survey.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/race-tightens-poll-shows-coalition-lifting-support-and-labor-dropping-20220517-p5am44.html

  36. Socrates at 5:56 pm
    The online NT News doesn’t think his visit worth reporting. His media advisor should know that a pic with a croc, bigger the better, is the only way to ensure a splash in the NT News. A barramundi is a fallback if there are no crocs on hand.
    https://www.ntnews.com.au/

  37. Upnorth @ #830 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 6:01 pm

    Spender said the Coalition’s policy would probably push up house prices – a view shared by prominent economists and partly conceded by Superannuation Minister Jane Hume – and that was “the last thing we need”.

    Hmmm. I suspect the good burghers of Wentworth – many of whom would own many properties as an investment … may disagree.

    I actually thought that was the whole point of the policy: To steal superannuation from the poor and gift it to the rich.

  38. Race tightens: Poll shows Coalition lifting support and Labor dropping
    By David Crowe
    May 17, 2022 — 6.00pmA dramatic shift in voter sentiment has tightened the race for power at the federal election by cutting primary vote support for Labor and giving the Coalition a boost that keeps it within sight of victory at the ballot box this Saturday.

    The election will go down to the wire after voters softened their support for Labor over the past two weeks to cut the party’s primary vote from 34 to 31 per cent, wiping away the strong gains made by Labor leader Anthony Albanese in the lead-up to the formal election campaign.

    With Prime Minister Scott Morrison on the offensive with an appeal to voters to back him on economic management and national security, the new survey shows a small increase in the Coalition primary vote from 33 to 34 per cent.

    The exclusive survey, conducted by Resolve Strategic for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, reveals a divided electorate with 34 per cent of all voters rejecting the major parties in favour of independents, the Greens and smaller parties.

    With early voting underway since Monday last week, the survey found that only 14 per cent considered themselves “uncommitted” compared to 24 per cent two weeks ago.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/race-tightens-poll-shows-coalition-lifting-support-and-labor-dropping-20220517-p5am44.html

  39. ‘Rakali says:
    Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 5:46 pm

    Are the Russians beginning to admit they are going to lose their war?

    Francis Scarr
    @francis_scarr
    · 11h
    In an extremely rare moment of candour on Russian state TV today, defence columnist Mikhail Khodaryonok gave a damning assessment of Russia’s war in Ukraine and his country’s international isolation. It’s fairly long but worth your time so I’ve added subtitles.

    https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1526293852704890882?s=20&t=n8N4S-QDXEc8DUYmLDE0tQ‘
    ====================
    Thanks. Fascinating!

  40. New resolve 52-48 ALP based on last election preferences, 51-49 when respondent allocated. Bit close for comfort but probably expected to tighten from 54-46.

    Will be curious to see other polls, ALP on 31 seems too low to be realistic

  42. Resolve. Was always going to be Resolve. Hopefully Ipsos or Essential arrive ASAP to knock the stuffing out of Uhlmann etc before they explode.

  43. Pfffffffffft.
    That Resolve poll doesn’t pass the laugh test. No way Labor’s primary is as low as 31. Or The Greens’ as high as 14. Straight to the bin. Along with the rest of their polls.

  45. Resolve is chasing Bluey who has been scoring upticks for the bad guys.
    One wonders whether Bandt has any misgivings at all about his fuckwit intervention?

  47. Coalition primary vote from 33 to 34 per cent

    That is a 7.5% swing against the coalition under 50 seats in the house of reps

  49. A 31% primary is a disgrace. The Coalition primary is no good as well but all I have read on here is how fantastic Labor is. An absolute farce.

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