Roy Morgan has dropped its weekly federal campaign poll, which shows Labor’s two-party preferred lead narrowing from 54.5-45.5 to more believable 53-47. While this is Labor’s weakest two-party result from Roy Morgan since October, the respondent-allocated preferences measure the pollster used until last week had Labor at least one point higher when it was tied with the Coalition on the primary vote, and sometimes substantially higher. The two-party numbers are now determined by allocating preferences flows as per the result of the 2019 election.
The poll shows both major parties on what even by recent standards are remarkably low primary votes of 34% each, with Labor down 1.5% on last week and the Coalition steady. The Greens are on 13%, One Nation is on 4% and the United Australia Party is on 1%, all unchanged on last week, with independents up half to 9% and “others” up one to 5%.
The usual two-party state breakdowns have Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales, out from 51.5-48.5 last week for a swing of around 4% compared with 2019; 57-43 in Victoria, in from 61-39, also for a swing of around 4%; 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, in from 57.5-42.5 for a swing of about 10%; and 58-42 from the tiny Tasmanian sample. The Coalition leads 53-47 in Queensland, in from 53.5-46.5 for a swing to Labor of about 5.5%, and 51-49 in South Australia, its first lead on this small sample measure since October, and a rather stark contrast to Labor’s 62.5-37.5 lead last week (the result in 2019 was 50.7-49.3 in favour of Labor).
The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1366. It will naturally be Morgan’s last of the campaign if it sticks to its usual schedule, although it may well pull something from its hat on the eve of the big day. The final Essential Research poll will reportedly be out on Wednesday, and it’s a known known that Newspoll and Ipsos each have a poll to come (it’s disappointing that we haven’t seen any state breakdowns from Newspoll, but hope springs eternal), and I assume the same will be true of Resolve Strategic. Until then:
• Ten News is teasing yet another result of Liberal Party internal polling from Peter van Onselen, this time suggesting Katherine Deves is “in with a shot” of unseating Zali Steggall in Warringah, seemingly along with results from other seats including Parramatta and Bennelong. UPDATE: This turns out to show the Liberals trailing on two-party preferred measures that include an uncommitted component by 49-48 in Reid, 50-43 in Bennelong and 50-41 in Parramatta, with particularly heavy deficits among women, but by only 53-47 in Warringah.
• Tom McIlroy of the Financial Review reports a Redbridge Group poll for North Sydney commissioned by Climate 200 has Liberal member Trent Zimmerman on 33.3%, independent Kylea Tink on 23.5% and Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw on 17.8%, with 7.5% undecided. The poll was conducted between May 3 and 14 from a sample of 1267.
• James Morrow of the Daily Telegraph reports a poll of Fowler conducted by Laidlaw Campaigns, presumably for independent Dai Le’s campaign, has Kristina Keneally leading Le by 45% to 38% after distribution of preferences and without excluding the 17% undecided. The poll also found Le was viewed favourably by 28% and unfavourably by 10%, while Keneally was at 24% and 30%. It was conducted three weeks ago from a sample of 618.
• Katharine Murphy of The Guardian notes a campaign endorsement for Katy Gallagher by Julia Gillard reflects concern that a win for independent candidate David Pocock in the Australian Capital Territory Senate race could come at the expense of Gallagher, and not Liberal Senator Zed Seselja as had generally presumed. A recent Redbridge poll suggested Pocock had gauged enough of his support from Labor to reduce Gallagher to 27%, well below the one-third quota for election
• The Australian Electoral Commission has issued a statement announcing that advertising by conservative activist group Advance Australia linking independents Zali Steggall and David Pocock to the Greens is in breach of the Electoral Act. The relevant section is section 329, banning material “likely to mislead or deceive an elector in relation to the casting of a vote”. The section is very commonly used as the basis of unsuccessful complaints about misleading political advertising, when it has been consistently been found to apply very narrowly to efforts to deceive voters into casting their ballots differently from how they intended. However, the statement suggests that the ruling made after the 2019 election over Chinese language signs encouraging votes for the Liberals in the seat of Chisholm, although dismissed, offers “a new judicial precedent” that seemingly paved the way for a more expansive interpretation.
• Ben Raue has produced highly instructive charts showing how each state’s two-party preferred vote has deviatied from the national result at elections going back to 1958.
• At the risk of getting ahead of ourselves, Andrew Clennell of Sky News reports that Josh Frydenberg is “said to have the numbers” against Peter Dutton to succeed Scott Morrison as Liberal leader should the party lose the election.
2019 Redux?
Resolve? Yeah nah.
How the fuck could the Coalition win with a PV of 34%?
Morgan tightened, Resolve has tightened dramatically.
is that like a 9pt pv drop for labor in Resolve.
That’s not confidence inspiring for resolve there.
Anyway, in other hysterically funny news today. On ABC at 5 there was a bit on the news about Crypto. Some fool of a financial planner was on there talking about the need “for some simple regulation”. LOL, big LOLs. That’s like the opposite of what crypto is about.
Don’t invest in crypto, it’s a ponzi scheme.
Sorry for any double-ups.
Hundreds of jobs lost in WA due to the Morrison government’s hollowing out of the NDIS.
https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/such-little-value-wa-families-horrified-by-activ-s-decision-to-close-disability-employment-workshop-20220516-p5alvf.html
Meanwhile thousands of jobs are due to be slashed in the Morrison government’s continuing war on the public service.
That idea of unemployment under 4% seems like a fading dream…
No way in hell are the ALP on a 31% primary.
It simply isn’t believable.
There is no reason for a shift that big.
So, a rogue on the loose. Will pump a few people’s tyres.
Albanese walks out on a presser, good on him
Will not cost him one vote
The media are terrified that their dealings with the LNP will be exposed in the forthcoming Royal Commission and so they should be
There has been more corruption with this federal government in the last nine years than any other federal government since federation
Try as they might they cannot remove the info sitting in the Cloud and they are horrified that the truth will out and panic has settled in.
Labor on 31% Primary. I think they got the parties around the wrong way. Newspoll is the one to watch. I guess we will have to wait until Friday night.
“ How the fuck could the Coalition win with a PV of 34%?”
How would Labor win with a PV of 31%?
Resolve has a 17% primary for greens in qld…
SA Bludger @ #855 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 5:44 pm
Favour?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/22/thinly-disguised-political-research-paid-for-by-taxpayers-shared-with-morrisons-office
If the lib/nats combined primary vote is going to be stuck between 34-36%
36% The lib/nats will get around 60 seats
35% The lib/nats will get around 53 seats
34% the libs/nats will get around 47 seats
33% the lib/nats will get around 42 seats
Well, at least we can say they are not herding.
Kevin Bonham
@kevinbonham
#Resolve 52-48 to ALP. L-NP 34 ALP 31 Green 14 ON 6 UAP 4 IND 6 other 4. Green + perhaps IND seem suspiciously high here. I get 51.8 by last-election preferences.
Cautions: not an APC member, not publicly tested at elections, forces undecided voters to pick party or exit.
It’s four and half minutes “fairly long”. That’s telling in itself. But that’s a fascinating video alright. Lots to see beyond what the guy was saying.
Thanks Rakali.
Taylormade @ #556 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 4:25 pm
Apparently in order to get a “bigger sample”, Resolve added phone calls to their usual online methodology for this poll.
Righto.
@Jude – exactly.
FTR – I don’t buy FOR A SECOND Labor’s primary will be 31 nor the Libs 34…
If you need this? Go right ahead and wallow/drown in it, but…
I suspect this is an outlier but it will certainly force anyone expecting a foregone conclusion to keep going until Saturday 6pm.
The flip side to the Teals seat polling is the preferences that get allocated back to the LNP. If a third or so of ALP voters in 10 seats vote Teal, how would the previous seat allocations work? 150K seats is not an insignificant sum. If you’d normally get 65% of preference allocations, and now across ten seats that is pushed down to 35%, how do you allocate preferences to calculate 2PP? In ten different seats? Where people especially want that answer in those seats.
Resolve sitting (conveniently?) just inside the Coalition end of MOE.
If IPSOS gives a different view should we expect Uhlmann and Crowe etc give it equal prominence as they are doing with Resolve?
Katharine Murphy Political editor
@murpharoo
Thu 22 Oct 2020 09.15 AEDT
The Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet has confirmed that it has shared the results of taxpayer-funded tracking surveys and research undertaken by Jim Reed, a long-term researcher for the Liberal party pollster Crosby Textor, with Scott Morrison’s office.
Reed, who now runs his own agency, Resolve Strategic, was awarded a contract by limited tender in April to undertake market research related to Covid-19 for the prime minister’s department.
Mmmmm now who would this resolve poll want to favour……
I don’t think either party’s primary vote will be that low either, I don’t expect Labor to go backwards from 2019 (on PV at least).
I do expect we’ll see the lowest combined major party vote in history though.
Apparently, the Resolve poll has a few changes.
Stephen Spencer
@sspencer_63
Replying to
@kevinbonham
Changing methodology mid stream? Hmmmm.. “The survey added several hundred telephone responses to the customary online responses to give it a larger base than the 1408 eligible voters polled in the last Resolve Political Monitor.”
There is no mood to change the government. The Coalition will retain seats like Chisholm and Reid and will also gain Parramatta. Chinese and Indian voters seem to be voting for the Coalition more and more.
Scottsays:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 6:16 pm
If the lib/nats combined primary vote is going to be stuck between 34-36%
36% The lib/nats will get around 60 seats
35% The lib/nats will get around 53 seats
34% the libs/nats will get around 47 seats
33% the lib/nats will get around 42 seats
_____________________
Now give us the Labor seat projections starting from 31% when you have a minute.
AND the FMD ! Drawing a Long Bow Desperation award goes to……………… wee Timmy. Timmeh!
https://www.smh.com.au/national/election-2022-live-updates-scott-morrison-insists-coalition-s-super-home-buyer-scheme-is-well-calibrated-anthony-albanese-wants-deeper-ties-with-south-east-asia-20220516-p5alss.html?post=p53prx#p53prx
Jewellery Bishop scored a ‘Commended’ from the judging panel with her entry.
Whether things are tightening or not, the primaries on that Resolve are absolutely laughable. Can’t dismiss that there may indeed be a tightening, but those primaries can get in the bin.
Resolve’s polls seem a bit suspect, if it’s 51-49 Newspoll the day before the election that would make me quite nervous.
@Bree – Thanks, hun.
Taylormaid: “Now give us”
Learn how to use a calculator.
(BK says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 5:27 pm
I hope Labor voters in seats where Teals are standing and Labor has no hope of winning will think it through and vote Teal 1, Labor 2 to maximise the probability of a Liberal loss.)
I can’t understand why Teals don’t preference labor, what is more important to them, climate change, integrity, equality or themselves getting into government. I would have thought the things they stand for are more important.
Why resolve and Morgan change their methodology?
I question both polls- I guess we will see in 4 days.
Labor primary vote is closer to 39-40%
It would be a miracle for the lib/nats combined primary vote and Labor primary vote be in the low 30’s
It is lol-worthy in some regards – Morgan moves to 2019 preferences from respondent allocated, then Resolve only highlights responded-allocated instead of 2019 prefs… goodness.
@Scott… you don’t get to determine the numbers you want to believe.
My own current thinking is both will end up somewhere around 36-37%
The poll companies need to shut their doors if they get the result wrong this time.
Is this Resolve poll worthy of a new post. Is it not regarded as one of the better pollsters.
I assume Newspoll won’t be released until Friday night.
Boerwar @ #635 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 5:17 pm
Some non-art for Boerwar.
Will it again be the lowest primary vote since 1931
@Bree…..please Bree, twirl them baby and give us more!!!! 🙂
Morrison going to be interviewed on ACA tonight
“The survey added several hundred telephone responses to the customary online responses to give it a larger base than the 1408 eligible voters polled in the last Resolve Political Monitor, which was conducted from April 26 to 30.”
ROFLMAO
Jim Reed is really putting his credibility as a pollster on the line here. We will see on Saturday whether it will be boosted or shredded.
Resolve has the Labor primary vote in NSW falling over 41% to under 28% in 17 days. I can’t take that seriously.
There should be an Ipsos mid-week as well shouldn’t there?
Jeez I hope Mundo has found those plastic sheets for tonight ……I think he’s gunna need them on reading this poll.
Tribal allegiance is hard to overcome. They would be seeing/reading the same partisan news as well as hearing the same partisan BS from politically affiliated friends. Not much can be done about the latter but it is why the MSM needs a sideways 4b2.