Morgan: 53-47 to Labor

Roy Morgan ends its weekly campaign series finding the major parties collectively plumbing new depths, but with Labor in far the better position of the two. Plus yet more internal polling scuttlebutt, this time from Warringah, Fowler and North Sydney.

Roy Morgan has dropped its weekly federal campaign poll, which shows Labor’s two-party preferred lead narrowing from 54.5-45.5 to more believable 53-47. While this is Labor’s weakest two-party result from Roy Morgan since October, the respondent-allocated preferences measure the pollster used until last week had Labor at least one point higher when it was tied with the Coalition on the primary vote, and sometimes substantially higher. The two-party numbers are now determined by allocating preferences flows as per the result of the 2019 election.

The poll shows both major parties on what even by recent standards are remarkably low primary votes of 34% each, with Labor down 1.5% on last week and the Coalition steady. The Greens are on 13%, One Nation is on 4% and the United Australia Party is on 1%, all unchanged on last week, with independents up half to 9% and “others” up one to 5%.

The usual two-party state breakdowns have Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales, out from 51.5-48.5 last week for a swing of around 4% compared with 2019; 57-43 in Victoria, in from 61-39, also for a swing of around 4%; 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, in from 57.5-42.5 for a swing of about 10%; and 58-42 from the tiny Tasmanian sample. The Coalition leads 53-47 in Queensland, in from 53.5-46.5 for a swing to Labor of about 5.5%, and 51-49 in South Australia, its first lead on this small sample measure since October, and a rather stark contrast to Labor’s 62.5-37.5 lead last week (the result in 2019 was 50.7-49.3 in favour of Labor).

The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1366. It will naturally be Morgan’s last of the campaign if it sticks to its usual schedule, although it may well pull something from its hat on the eve of the big day. The final Essential Research poll will reportedly be out on Wednesday, and it’s a known known that Newspoll and Ipsos each have a poll to come (it’s disappointing that we haven’t seen any state breakdowns from Newspoll, but hope springs eternal), and I assume the same will be true of Resolve Strategic. Until then:

• Ten News is teasing yet another result of Liberal Party internal polling from Peter van Onselen, this time suggesting Katherine Deves is “in with a shot” of unseating Zali Steggall in Warringah, seemingly along with results from other seats including Parramatta and Bennelong. UPDATE: This turns out to show the Liberals trailing on two-party preferred measures that include an uncommitted component by 49-48 in Reid, 50-43 in Bennelong and 50-41 in Parramatta, with particularly heavy deficits among women, but by only 53-47 in Warringah.

• Tom McIlroy of the Financial Review reports a Redbridge Group poll for North Sydney commissioned by Climate 200 has Liberal member Trent Zimmerman on 33.3%, independent Kylea Tink on 23.5% and Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw on 17.8%, with 7.5% undecided. The poll was conducted between May 3 and 14 from a sample of 1267.

• James Morrow of the Daily Telegraph reports a poll of Fowler conducted by Laidlaw Campaigns, presumably for independent Dai Le’s campaign, has Kristina Keneally leading Le by 45% to 38% after distribution of preferences and without excluding the 17% undecided. The poll also found Le was viewed favourably by 28% and unfavourably by 10%, while Keneally was at 24% and 30%. It was conducted three weeks ago from a sample of 618.

• Katharine Murphy of The Guardian notes a campaign endorsement for Katy Gallagher by Julia Gillard reflects concern that a win for independent candidate David Pocock in the Australian Capital Territory Senate race could come at the expense of Gallagher, and not Liberal Senator Zed Seselja as had generally presumed. A recent Redbridge poll suggested Pocock had gauged enough of his support from Labor to reduce Gallagher to 27%, well below the one-third quota for election

• The Australian Electoral Commission has issued a statement announcing that advertising by conservative activist group Advance Australia linking independents Zali Steggall and David Pocock to the Greens is in breach of the Electoral Act. The relevant section is section 329, banning material “likely to mislead or deceive an elector in relation to the casting of a vote”. The section is very commonly used as the basis of unsuccessful complaints about misleading political advertising, when it has been consistently been found to apply very narrowly to efforts to deceive voters into casting their ballots differently from how they intended. However, the statement suggests that the ruling made after the 2019 election over Chinese language signs encouraging votes for the Liberals in the seat of Chisholm, although dismissed, offers “a new judicial precedent” that seemingly paved the way for a more expansive interpretation.

• Ben Raue has produced highly instructive charts showing how each state’s two-party preferred vote has deviatied from the national result at elections going back to 1958.

• At the risk of getting ahead of ourselves, Andrew Clennell of Sky News reports that Josh Frydenberg is “said to have the numbers” against Peter Dutton to succeed Scott Morrison as Liberal leader should the party lose the election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

950 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 16 of 19
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  1. 4 sleeplessnesses to go and then… is it wake in fright?

    Bluey reckons that some of the seat poll leaks are a hoot: the modern equivalent of debating how many angels are dancing on the head of a pin.

    Bluey notes that it has only taken five and half weeks but every candidate seems to have behaved themselves for the past 24 hours. Even humans get it right eventually.

    Bluey reckons the agenda is exactly where Morrison wants it: fucking over public servants and Albanese dodging costings, looking like he is running from some horrible truth.

    Bluey can hardly breathe, even underwater. It’s the narrowing!

    Score for the day: Morrison +.5; Albanese -.5.

    Cumulative score: Morrison 2.5; Albanese 4.5; Joyce .5; Bandt – .5; Palmer +.5

    Bluey forecasts a Labor majority victory by several seats.

  2. Jaeger says:
    Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 12:16 pm
    “Does anyone know what Brisbane brewery the Greens launch was at? Just so I know never to buy their beer again. Ta.
    Black Hops Brisbane.”

    Thanks! Oh no. I love Black Hops. Oh well. No more Hornets for me.

  3. Deja vu maybe….but I think some leaders just look like succeeding and some do not….Mali is a born winner and I was confident he was on track….Shorten, I could never quite picture as PM, Bill Clinton yes, Hilary no, etc…..I know what u will say winners look like winners in hindsight and losers the opposite…..I was absolutely convinced that Bomber…..the nicest man you ever likely to meet….he was never going to be PM …..Albo looks the part…..in 80 years time people will look at how old fashioned but Prime Ministerial he looks…..its a vibe thing (maybe should have said that at the start)

  5. So ads on the electronic media come to an end midnight Wednesday……Not long to go…..I suspect the media ferals will also be shut down in the minds of most people too…..Just too late one way or the other……Social media still there, and for the oldies, the print press…Other than that, the campaign is all but at an end……..

  8. @alias

    Did an emergency fill of diesel today as noticed the two big servos, Shell and the other BP were now $2.20, luckily the new independent one was $1.98. So worse than before the budget.

    Scary thing is, we are alot slower than the metro prices.

  9. It would be handy if the opinion polls hold up, but it would be highly suspicious if there is a sudden rush to the Blue side as they have run a terrible campaign…..If they win from here, well why bother with anything?

  10. morrisons director of communications is a long time x news corp dayley Teligraph staffer and australian edator is Cris door unkle of yung lib alix plus michael stutchburys relative is former nsw yung liberals president jernalist for 10 years before joining morrisons ofice in 2017 abbott released costings a day before election 2013 and had a black whole news corp never mentiond it benson is close to morrison the anti chine retorick should hurt Gladys liu shes chinease origen yet dutton is triying to attack china

  11. Must be an election coming on. Lots of negative vibes, crap about a tight election in the final days, a tightening of the PV and 2PP, self interference from the likes of Shanahan, Markson and Murray and “internal leaks” telling us this seat or that seat is suddenly in trouble for this mob or that and the old ‘policy costings’ and dirty hidden tricks discourse as well.

    Meanwhile, most voters are completely unaware and uninterested in the bubble and squeak that the last week produces. Where are the voters when Albo or Scomo does a presser or goes to the Press Club ? At WORK or taking an inventory on the family budget to see if little Johnny or Jane can do the school trip to Canberra this year, not both. And just in time , here comes PVO with more insider trading “news”. Please !!

  12. Who can makes sense of fuel prices? Today, $1.69 per litre for standard unleaded in Hermit City……end of the cycle I think…….

  13. Can’t believe they had to ship Howard down to Melbourne to help out with campaigning. A true measure of just how toxic Scott Morrison is.

  16. “people were saying that about the WA state election, too. Turned out the polls were underestimating Labor’s 2PP, with the final Newspoll underestimating by almost 4%.”

    Anecdotal evidence.. friend went to well healed charity do on the weekend.. Vince Sorrenti was MC.. lots of jokes etc.. eating out of his hand..till.. joke about Libs forming next government .. response stone dead silence.. fear is out there & from the rich side of town..

    I’m predicting Labor with 89 seats & Barnaby LOP.
    AG calls it ( qualified) by 7.45

  17. Ch 10 news Melbourne: 10 mins in and so far no reporting of the supposed polling leaks, not even a mention that it’s coming later in the bulletin.

  18. BK,

    First, I never want to miss an opportunity to express boundless appreciation for your brilliant news preview summaries.
    Your comments this ‘arvo are sagacious as ever. Today Morrison ran away from an SBS reporter into his car because she was asking him why nobody from the Coalition had agreed to appear on NITV in Lingiari, the seat “with highest % of Aboriginal voters in the country.” He tried to fob her off with nonsense about Coalition investing in “connectivity”. It was a terrible, awful,
    no good look. And just like Albo departing from a mob of people that Australians respect only a quark above used car salespeople, not one single vote will be changed by either non-event,

  19. Howard went to Malvern of all places in Higgins too, of course the most liberal part of the electorate other than Toorak.

  21. Howard to be interviewed by Tracy Grimshaw on A Current Affair at 7pm.

    Last time she interviewed Howard, Grimshaw was savage. It was on women’s issues.

  27. PVO leaked polling on Channel 10 in the seats of Reid, Bennelong, Parramatta and Warringah.
    Apparently Zali Steggel leading by 53-47, Reid said to be closer than people think, Labor on the other hand have big leads in Bennelong and Parramatta, if you believe PVO.
    Also, big gender gap in operation, women have deserted Morrison since 2019.

  28. I object to the Archibald Prize and the Eurovision No 1 being bastardized for blatantly political purposes: art in the service of politics is never, ever art.
    It is paid advertising.
    Nothing more.
    Nothing less.

  29. Boinzo says:
    Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 5:03 pm

    Jaeger says:
    Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 12:16 pm
    “Does anyone know what Brisbane brewery the Greens launch was at? Just so I know never to buy their beer again. Ta.
    Black Hops Brisbane.”

    Thanks! Oh no. I love Black Hops. Oh well. No more Hornets for me.
    —
    I’m sure they’ll survive without your conditional patronage.

  30. Reid close… but Bennelong and Parramatta with large leads?

    I know there are going to be some weird dynamics in seats, but it doesn’t smell right. We shall see.

  31. And no footage on Channel 10 news of Albo supposedly storming out of a press conference.
    Jim Chalmers says everything is costed, they’ll release the costings on Thursday, will not be hurried into it by Frydenbore or the Murdoch media.

  32. Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 5:17 pm

    I object to the Archibald Prize and the Eurovision No 1 being bastardized for blatantly political purposes: art in the service of politics is never, ever art.
    ______
    Art has always served political ends. To think otherwise is naive.

  33. jt1983 – yeah, if Bennelong and Parramatta are swinging to Labor, no reason Reid isn’t either.
    Personally I’d love Labor to take Bennelong because Jerome Laxale is a bloody good bloke, and for the Labor margin in Parramatta to go up a lot because of the shit Andrew Charlton has had put on him by the Daily telegraph and 2GB especially.
    As for Katherine Deves supposedly with a chance of winning Warringah, nah, not buying that one.

  34. The only thing that seems genuine in that leaked polling is SfM’s gender gap. The rest of it – take it or leave it.

  36. With so many Teals getting high primaries and ALP voters strategically switching in those seats, i can’t see how it’s possible to allocate their preferences whether respondent or previous. It accounts for a lot. It will be up to 1% of the ALP primary from seats they had no chance of winning if using previous. 1% is about 150K ALP voters. Or ~15% (normally 35%-40%?) off their primary if across 10 100K seats. Almost all of the Teals seat polls have this from what I’ve seen.

    Biggest psephology question I have about this election that only gets answered one way. I think it means that the ALP primary must be higher everywhere else. And it ain’t looking good anyway for the LNP.

  37. Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 5:17 pm

    I object to the Archibald Prize and the Eurovision No 1 being bastardized for blatantly political purposes: art in the service of politics is never, ever art.

    ———————-

    You must have missed the whole history of art and music. Also, Eurivision winner was voted. You can argue it’s a sympathetic vote towards Ukraine, but the audience did want it to win.

  38. Murdoch hacks are doing as they’re instructed.

    Angry Albo storms out of presser
    Anthony Albanese walked out of a press conference and refused to answer questions on whether fiscal deficits would be higher under a Labor government. (Oz)

  39. I hope Labor voters in seats where Teals are standing and Labor has no hope of winning will think it through and vote Teal 1, Labor 2 to maximise the probability of a Liberal loss.

  40. Reports on internal polling and focus groups, to be taken with a lot of salt.

    “Scott Morrison’s popularity among women has experienced record drops, Liberal Party polling leaked to 10 News First has revealed ” video clip
    https://twitter.com/10NewsFirst/status/1526458744334327809

    Scott Morrison’s super plan slammed by Labor focus groups
    https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/scott-morrisons-super-plan-slammed-by-labor-focus-groups/news-story/406c6c504987b1274f2eb06c6cab0365

  42. As I have said…I rarely watch TV….but from PB reporting would it be accurate to say that Channel 10 is being fair and balanced in its reporting….certainly in comparison to 7 and 9

  44. So, I’ve been in bed for two days with Covid. Just walked down to the lounge room and saw headlines about a hung parliament! Then I had a look at the polling. The aLP still have an eight point lead on average. What is going on? Scomo won last time because no one knew him. The ALP always wins the polls of the engaged. The disengaged last time knew they didn’t like shorten. This time they know they don’t like Scomo. There will be a swing, it will be big, it will be late. ICAC now!

  45. Back in the real world that voters actually care about, the ABC’s Business Reporter Michael Janda posted online about an hour ago that “Borrowers narrowly escaped a bigger rate rise in May” and “should brace for the chance of a super-sized move in June, the Reserve Bank’s latest minutes reveal.”

  46. LvT

    Aaron newton says:
    Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 3:52 pm
    Clenell just reported thatAndrew Clenell sky just reported Dai le clamed to control fairfield liberal party branch in 2020 desbite
    being exbelled from liberals maybi labor is leaking against her

    ____________________________________
    Labor may just have confused Dai Le with the Liberal candidate, Courtney Nguyen.

    Oh FFS Lars, the story of Dai Le claiming that she controlled the Fairfield Liberal party is old news*, which you know doubt know. I do agree that your statement “Labor may just have confused Dai Le with the Liberal candidate, Courtney Nguyen” is unfalsifiable, but it in no way adds to the discussion on PB, instead it clearly aimed at using rumour and innuendo to convince other denizens of PB that Dai Le is a “real independent”, with no ties to major parties. You even gave us an account into which we should post money, to support this “independent”.

    * The Independent candidate taking on Kristina Keneally in the seat of Fowler, Dai Le, claimed in a voicemail message in 2019 – three years after she was suspended for 10 years by the Liberal party – that she still had control of the Liberal Party’s Cabramatta branch.
    In the leaked voicemail message to a local branch member obtained by Sky News, Ms Le says “The meeting went OK last night with us… we were able to reject all of the members. I still am in control of the branch.”

    Ms Le’s husband Marcus Lambert was president of the branch at the time.

    https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/federal-election/independent-dai-le-claimed-she-controlled-sydney-liberal-branch-in-2019-despite-party-suspending-her-three-years-earlier/news-story/4dc87a56ee3abe459fbe9ef540dbe091

  49. One difference between Reid on the one hand and Parramatta/Bennelong on the other, is that Reid has an incumbent member on the ballot paper and one who may benefit from sophomore effects. Her embarrassing confusion of Sally Sitou with Tu Le won’t be helping her of course.

    But apart from that, single seat polls don’t have a great track record and the fact that the Reid result seems a bit out of whack relative to Parramatta/Bennelong may just be about sampling error.

  50. Middle aged balding white man. says:
    Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 5:29 pm
    So, I’ve been in bed for two days with Covid
    中华人民共和国
    Hope your on the mend cobber. I do believe Saturday will lift your spirits. Get well.

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