Roy Morgan has dropped its weekly federal campaign poll, which shows Labor’s two-party preferred lead narrowing from 54.5-45.5 to more believable 53-47. While this is Labor’s weakest two-party result from Roy Morgan since October, the respondent-allocated preferences measure the pollster used until last week had Labor at least one point higher when it was tied with the Coalition on the primary vote, and sometimes substantially higher. The two-party numbers are now determined by allocating preferences flows as per the result of the 2019 election.
The poll shows both major parties on what even by recent standards are remarkably low primary votes of 34% each, with Labor down 1.5% on last week and the Coalition steady. The Greens are on 13%, One Nation is on 4% and the United Australia Party is on 1%, all unchanged on last week, with independents up half to 9% and “others” up one to 5%.
The usual two-party state breakdowns have Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales, out from 51.5-48.5 last week for a swing of around 4% compared with 2019; 57-43 in Victoria, in from 61-39, also for a swing of around 4%; 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, in from 57.5-42.5 for a swing of about 10%; and 58-42 from the tiny Tasmanian sample. The Coalition leads 53-47 in Queensland, in from 53.5-46.5 for a swing to Labor of about 5.5%, and 51-49 in South Australia, its first lead on this small sample measure since October, and a rather stark contrast to Labor’s 62.5-37.5 lead last week (the result in 2019 was 50.7-49.3 in favour of Labor).
The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1366. It will naturally be Morgan’s last of the campaign if it sticks to its usual schedule, although it may well pull something from its hat on the eve of the big day. The final Essential Research poll will reportedly be out on Wednesday, and it’s a known known that Newspoll and Ipsos each have a poll to come (it’s disappointing that we haven’t seen any state breakdowns from Newspoll, but hope springs eternal), and I assume the same will be true of Resolve Strategic. Until then:
• Ten News is teasing yet another result of Liberal Party internal polling from Peter van Onselen, this time suggesting Katherine Deves is “in with a shot” of unseating Zali Steggall in Warringah, seemingly along with results from other seats including Parramatta and Bennelong. UPDATE: This turns out to show the Liberals trailing on two-party preferred measures that include an uncommitted component by 49-48 in Reid, 50-43 in Bennelong and 50-41 in Parramatta, with particularly heavy deficits among women, but by only 53-47 in Warringah.
• Tom McIlroy of the Financial Review reports a Redbridge Group poll for North Sydney commissioned by Climate 200 has Liberal member Trent Zimmerman on 33.3%, independent Kylea Tink on 23.5% and Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw on 17.8%, with 7.5% undecided. The poll was conducted between May 3 and 14 from a sample of 1267.
• James Morrow of the Daily Telegraph reports a poll of Fowler conducted by Laidlaw Campaigns, presumably for independent Dai Le’s campaign, has Kristina Keneally leading Le by 45% to 38% after distribution of preferences and without excluding the 17% undecided. The poll also found Le was viewed favourably by 28% and unfavourably by 10%, while Keneally was at 24% and 30%. It was conducted three weeks ago from a sample of 618.
• Katharine Murphy of The Guardian notes a campaign endorsement for Katy Gallagher by Julia Gillard reflects concern that a win for independent candidate David Pocock in the Australian Capital Territory Senate race could come at the expense of Gallagher, and not Liberal Senator Zed Seselja as had generally presumed. A recent Redbridge poll suggested Pocock had gauged enough of his support from Labor to reduce Gallagher to 27%, well below the one-third quota for election
• The Australian Electoral Commission has issued a statement announcing that advertising by conservative activist group Advance Australia linking independents Zali Steggall and David Pocock to the Greens is in breach of the Electoral Act. The relevant section is section 329, banning material “likely to mislead or deceive an elector in relation to the casting of a vote”. The section is very commonly used as the basis of unsuccessful complaints about misleading political advertising, when it has been consistently been found to apply very narrowly to efforts to deceive voters into casting their ballots differently from how they intended. However, the statement suggests that the ruling made after the 2019 election over Chinese language signs encouraging votes for the Liberals in the seat of Chisholm, although dismissed, offers “a new judicial precedent” that seemingly paved the way for a more expansive interpretation.
• Ben Raue has produced highly instructive charts showing how each state’s two-party preferred vote has deviatied from the national result at elections going back to 1958.
• At the risk of getting ahead of ourselves, Andrew Clennell of Sky News reports that Josh Frydenberg is “said to have the numbers” against Peter Dutton to succeed Scott Morrison as Liberal leader should the party lose the election.
With Steggall being the incumbent and Deves mostly being in hiding I can’t see how Warringah will be even close.
It’s been a long few weeks of leaked “internal polling” but the Warringa one takes the cake. Surely she’s no chance.
Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8977-roy-morgan-poll-on-federal-voting-intention-may-2022-202205161214
Kevin still has Labor at 54.1 on his 2PP aggregate.
Note that I’ve re-engineered the post around the Morgan poll.
It’s interesting how by some strange coincidence every one of these bespoke commissioned polls is favourable toward the result the group who payed for it desire.
Suddenly climate 200 pay for a poll and their girl is now a clear second in North Sydney when the “internal polling” has Labor a clear second. They may be proved correct but it does make one wonder.
Katherine Murphy’s observation regarding Katy Gallagher and and the endorsement from Julia Gillard as a telltale as to the result of the Senate race in the ACT is worthy of one comment.
” tell her she’s dreamin’ “.
Something is seriously wrong with the Morgan state figures for SA. There is surely no way there has been a swing to the Liberals in SA.
@ Scott
The SA sample size would be like about 90..
William
“A recent Redbridge poll suggested Pocock had gauged enough of his support from Labor…”
Should that read gouged?
How ‘Morrison’ of her. From teh UK
.
Government minister is at the centre of a row after saying workers struggling with rising bills should consider taking on more hours or simply moving to a “better paid job”.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/cost-of-living-minister-rachel-maclean-increase-hours-job-b1000193.html
‘At the risk of getting ahead of ourselves, Andrew Clennell of Sky News reports that Josh Frydenberg is “said to have the numbers” against Peter Dutton to succeed Scott Morrison as Liberal leader should the party lose the election.’
Getting ahead of ourselves, indeed. Frydenberg has to be re-elected first.
Meanwhile, from Redbridge:
‘New poll predicts Allegra Spender will win Wentworth from Liberal MP Dave Sharma’
Sharma 36%
Spender 33,3%
Labor 11.7%
Greens 6.2%
UAP 5.3%
“The pollsters did not attempt a two-party-preferred calculation”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/17/new-poll-predicts-allegra-spender-will-win-wentworth-from-liberal-mp-dave-sharma?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
If my notionally Liberal voting family in Warringah are any guide, Steggall will be re-elected. The prevailing sentiment among them is largely that Steggall has been a good local member and deserves another go.
And meanwhile in Higgins:
“The UComms survey of 836 residents on behalf of the Australia Institute, taken on 2 May using automated voice polling, shows the Liberal’s primary vote at 34.4%, Labor’s at 28.7% and a substantial Greens vote of 18.5%. Nearly 8% said they were undecided.
If preferences were allocated based on historical flows, Labor would have a narrow win, 51-49%. But when people were asked how they intended to allocate their preferences, Labor would win 54-46%.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/17/new-poll-predicts-allegra-spender-will-win-wentworth-from-liberal-mp-dave-sharma?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Voodoo Blues, I think it’s better to say they always support the narrative. If someone is a shoo-in, they will sometimes release a poll that shows they’re on the nose. Of course, it’s because they only release the polls that suit their narrative.
Oliver Sutton, it’s not just that Frydenberg has to be re-elected. The numbers will also change post-election. If Frydenberg gets in but other moderates lost, and there’s a few seats that the Liberals gain with a more right-wing candidate, Frydenberg might not have the numbers any more. Such a party might want to cut its losses and play the game where it’s winning.
Now Labor is leaking their internal polling… selectively
Labor is deploying frontbencher Penny Wong to the electorates of Brisbane and Higgins in the final days of the election campaign, as the opposition becomes increasingly bullish about its prospects in the Liberal-held seats due to voter disaffection with Scott Morrison.
Strategists say Labor’s internal polling points to opportunity in four Liberal-held seats – Brisbane and Ryan in Queensland, Bennelong in Sydney and Higgins in Victoria – because disapproval of Morrison is high in these electorates and disaffected centrist progressive voters don’t have a teal independent to back.
Guardian Australia understands in private YouGov seat polls, 58% of respondents in Ryan, 57% in Bennelong, 62% in Brisbane and 65% in Higgins disapproved of Morrison’s performance as prime minister when asked whether they had a positive or negative view of the Liberal leader.
Albanese’s favourability is in the mid-forties in these seats, with voter disapproval numbers in the mid-thirties. The YouGov individual seat surveys, undertaken in February, March, April and as recently as the first week of May, were conducted by phone polling of landlines and mobiles. The sample size for each survey was 400 respondents.
Party strategists say the dynamics in the four electorates are similar to the teal contests in Sydney and Melbourne, with local voters riled up about a lack of action on climate change and professional women alienated by Morrison’s response to last year’s #MeToo reckoning in parliament.
Wong, who was climate change minister during the Rudd government, has been deployed in the four seats over recent weeks and will redouble on-ground efforts in Brisbane, currently held by Liberal Trevor Evans, and Higgins, currently held by Liberal Katie Allen, as Morrison and Albanese conduct their final dash to the country’s marginal electorates ahead of Saturday’s election.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/17/labor-polling-suggests-brisbane-ryan-bennelong-and-higgins-are-winnable-due-to-pms-poor-standing
The ALP-skewed respondent 2PP was 56.5 (+0.5) and they didn’t mention it in the release.
Take 1.5 off Morgan (for being Morgan) and that’s probably the true position 51.5-48.5
With the low primary votes should be some interesting results around the place.
Sophie award contenders at this stage:
Katy Gallagher – Act senate
Kristina Keneally – Fowler
Terri Butler – Griffith
Rob Mitchell – McEwen
Previously posted….
Bludging says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 1:03 am
I think there will be an array of seats in which Labor will not figure in the final count. These seats include Curtin, Kooyong, Goldstein, Nicholls, Wentworth, North Sydney, MacKellar, Indi, Mayo, Kennedy, Warringah and Clark. There may be one or two more – Cowper and Hughes come to mind. So there will be at least 14 seats that Labor cannot win because it will be knocked out before the final throwing of the prefs.
That means there will be 137 seats theoretically available to Labor. It holds 68 of these already, and the new seat of Hawke is a notional Labor seat. So Labor have 69/137 possible seats. That is, it goes into the election with a bare majority in these possible seats. One seat is held by a political apostate (a Green). So Labor have 69/136 possible seats and 67 are held by the Lying Reactionaries. To win a majority in the House, Labor have to win a net 7 of these 67 Reactionary-held seats.
A very tight path to victory would see Labor succeed in Swan, Pearce or Hasluck (but not all three), Boothby or Sturt but not both, and one of Chisholm, Higgins or Deakin (but not all three), Bass or Braddon (but not both), 2 of Reid, Robertson, Banks, Lindsay and Bennelong, and 2 of Flynn, Brisbane, Dickson, Forde, Petrie, Ryan and Longman, while maybe also losing a seat or two as well.
In a very tight election, a plausible minimum would see Labor win 8 and lose 1 (and though I couldn’t say where the loss might be, suppose it’s in coal-minded Hunter, where the wretch, Bandt, has been campaigning for the Lying Reactionaries).
In a swinging-for-change election, the top side for Labor would be to win 22 seats and lose none.
So that’s a pretty wide span..from a bare 76 to as many as 91 seats. I think we can’t really predict the outcome. The results depend on the prefs of Runaway Reactionaries. Will they pref Labor or will they cling to the aprons of the Reactionaries? We won’t know the answer until the votes are counted.
Where will the prefs of Lite, ON, UAP, Lib-Dems, NLP and other minor 3rd voice candidates go? Morgan’s respondent-allocated polling suggests the pref flow to Labor will be significantly better in 2022 than it was in 2019. But will it?
There are wall-to-wall campaigns by Labor-phobic reactionary voices. Reactionary politics is a shambles. This should help Labor. To win, Labor need their prefs. Hmmm…we just didn’t know where the prefs will go.
About the only thing we could say with confidence is the Lying Reactionaries will be unable to secure a majority. Everything else is pure guesswork.
If Labor win a total of 91 while 14 Lite/Indies and 1 political apostate (Green) are returned, the Lying Reactionaries would be reduced to 45. The Labor-hostile ranks would total 60. Gratifying as that would be, it looks too rich to me. Hmmm.
Lars Von Triersays:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 6:25 am
Take 1.5 off Morgan (for being Morgan) and that’s probably the true position 51.5-48.5
With the low primary votes should be some interesting results around the place.
Sophie award contenders at this stage:
Katy Gallagher – Act senate
Kristina Keneally – Fowler
Terri Butler – Griffith
Rob Mitchell – McEwen
—
I would have thought the member for Lilley more likely to be at risk than Butler in Griffith after all the foot work the Greens have put into Lilley in recent months.
“pm TELLS inner city voters ……”
The Age headline on line
When is this Pentecostal going to realise that people do not want to be TOLD?
The capitals in both instances mine
So not only a culture war government but a government which tells you how to vote
We like to think we live in a democracy
Political parties can ask for our support – not tell us
Telling us how to vote sits with the unfortunate characteristics this pm has evidenced to us
Has he told us to get vaccinated by mandating vaccination?
No
But he tells us how to vote
So self in front of public health during an ongoing pandemic
Disgusting
The thing im most sure about this year is, pollsters will have led us astray with preference allocation.
Partly because its so much harder with low primaries, inaccuracies will be magnified more in this election than any other i remember.
Also because so much has changed in society and lifestyle since the term leading up to 2019 election, and the way politics worked this term has been like no other, it just seems very naive to think people on average lean the same way as they did in 2019.
Low primaries are a symptom of whats going on, pollsters are measuring the symptoms without knowing how to deal with the cause. I expect pollsters will have a new drama to reflect on after the election, probably involving three cornered contests.
EDIT: My prediction for the election is that pollsters will get it wrong in more seats than ever before.
Some days out and the Murdoch tabloids still failing to go the big dump on Albo.
And refusing to do the ‘big reveal’ of the alleged dirt file. And no coordinated front pages. And no Fat Yellow Footers.
And keen readers will spot some pro-ALP messaging creeping in…
I thought about that sandman – but I figure the Liberal candidates residency issues should boost the Labor primary vote for Wells.
Lib/nats would get slaughtered in the election if the combined primary vote was 34%
lib/nats would likely end up with 50+ seats
34% FPV for Labor if true is of serious concern. Labor will not get to a majority with 34% FPV.
This has been a terrible government for 9 years and the conservatives have held power 20 of the last 26 years and Labor can only get 34%?
Also, the government’s release of up to $50k of superannuation may be bad policy but it will get votes. If you are in the cohort that policy is targeting, why wouldn’t you want the option.
Sprocket – r u going to bust out the big 100 seat call? You know you want to !
It’s time – state your hor margin call!
Trafford10 @ #26 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 6:37 am
And so it begins.
Late, but it’s here.
The creeping miracle.
https://abclisten.page.link/yFbUQdnyATbG6inMA
Can recommend this 15 minute session last night between:
Phillip Adams
Laura Tingle
Nikki Savva
They review ScoMo’s interview with Leigh Sales, and why ScoMo is so hated, especially in the NSW chapter of the Liberal Party.
Trafford10 says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 6:37 am
34% FPV for Labor if true is of serious concern. Labor will not get to a majority with 34% FPV.
———————————–
going on 2016 federal election result where the Lib/nats had a 3% swing against them = lost of 15 seats
Labor had a 1% swing to them = gain of a 14 seats
If lib/nats combined primary vote is 34% that is a swing of 7.5% against them
34% is a 1% swing to Labor
Labor would likely get 90+ seats
Oliver Sutton says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 5:19 am
This poll is all about saving Josh’s seat…. using fear of Dutton to do it..
I think Morgan has highlighted the importance of preference flows, and that in truth, no one has any dam idea.
Scott what’s your guess for the hor margin?
I think early campaign you were saying 20 seat gain. Now?
Lars Von Trier says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 6:45 am
Scott what’s your guess for the hor margin?
I think early campaign you were saying 20 seat gain. Now?
——————————-
Hasn’t change
Are pollsters factoring in the 2 million Aussies who have already voted, either by prepoll or postal votes, as they do in polls for U.S elections?
Good morning William and Bludgers!
Voodoo Blues – 157am
‘Who pays the piper calls the tune’
If it’s 34/34 then the alp can win from there, the lnp need to be 39+, it depends on the preference flows.
The lnp primary is 4+5% lower than in polls at the same time in 2019.
If the pollsters aren’t wrong or the error isn’t as large they are toast.
Close to the polling forecast prior to the last election!
Apologies for the vague post, but does anyone have a link for the Web site that has the data analysis on the election odds? The one that presents the data similar to how 538 present there’s?
I’m not referring to Buckleys and None, but the other one I’ve seen linked to on here recently. Can’t find the site again.
Any help is appreciated. And apologies for such a vague post.
I’m not an expert in preference voting, but if 34-34 is true then the preference flow would be a mess.
mundo @ #28 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 6:41 am
Can mundo get the same sort of temporary ban that Bushfire Bill has been placed under until after the election!?! This sort of crap is seriously unhelpful and on the nose. It contributes nothing. Just takes some random’s comment and riffs negatively off it. 😡
“While this is Labor’s weakest two-party result from Roy Morgan since October”
This is funny. Although 53% is still on the Labor side of the margin of error and so the ALP should be quite pleased with this result, the decrease in the ALP 2PP in this poll happens after the ALP has been smashing Scomo and the Coalition on just about every front. So, Morgan is telling us that the ALP was doing very well after the much maligned and super-publicised Albo’s lapse in memory, and after he recovered aplenty the ALP is going down? … This is what makes Morgan not very believable.
But in any event, the only poll that counts is coming… in just 4 days!…. 🙂
Instead of calling for people to be banned, just ignore them.
The gender breakdowns in the Morgan Poll are interesting, it has Male vote unchanged at 51:49, and Female vote at 55:45, and overall vote 53:47
So all the change is from the Female vote falling 3% from 58:42, does that seem plausible in a week given the election progress… i expect there is or was some errors in there.
BTRP – this is probably the one you’re after:
https://www.aeforecasts.com/forecast/2022fed/regular/#seats
The Australian is once again happy to be the Coalition’s propaganda machine glibly quoting SfM for paragraph after paragraph of Liberal HQ bollocks about how it is a close election and this is because —
“Mr Morrison said the 2022 election would be decided in the last week of the campaign because voters were suffering from disengagement, fatigue with politicians, a final realisation the time had come to make a decision and a wish to go beyond the pandemic”.
–
I have been tipping 77 66 8 in favour of Labor for a week now. Nothing SfM says or The Australian does will change my view- their own Newspoll tells us the Coalition are gone.
Well if Scomo says so it must be true, right ?
The government is going to an election with record levels of debt and deficit and all I’ve heard from the MSM this morning is ‘Albanese refuses to say if debt and deficit will be higher under Labor’.
What fuking hope is there.
What’s the minimum primary for the lnp to get back in?
I’ve calculated 39, I guess it depends on how preferences flow
Phil is marching forward with the Coalition campaign with this;
“Federal Labor will go to the election on Saturday promising larger debt and deficits than the Coalition”
Look past the trollish ‘larger debt and deficit than the coalition’ and note his use of the word ‘promising’, thats the real evil of media bias, the little words they sneak in that hint and things they dont know, like intent.
Thats why we need ‘integrity in journalism’ laws
Mundo
It may be worth considering two facts:-
Australia has preferential voting.
And Morrison makes a great deal of the the Labor plus Green vote which compares favourably to the Liberal plus National vote.
Everything remains on track to be rid of the most corrupt cohort of politicians since Federation.