Morgan: 53-47 to Labor

Roy Morgan ends its weekly campaign series finding the major parties collectively plumbing new depths, but with Labor in far the better position of the two. Plus yet more internal polling scuttlebutt, this time from Warringah, Fowler and North Sydney.

Roy Morgan has dropped its weekly federal campaign poll, which shows Labor’s two-party preferred lead narrowing from 54.5-45.5 to more believable 53-47. While this is Labor’s weakest two-party result from Roy Morgan since October, the respondent-allocated preferences measure the pollster used until last week had Labor at least one point higher when it was tied with the Coalition on the primary vote, and sometimes substantially higher. The two-party numbers are now determined by allocating preferences flows as per the result of the 2019 election.

The poll shows both major parties on what even by recent standards are remarkably low primary votes of 34% each, with Labor down 1.5% on last week and the Coalition steady. The Greens are on 13%, One Nation is on 4% and the United Australia Party is on 1%, all unchanged on last week, with independents up half to 9% and “others” up one to 5%.

The usual two-party state breakdowns have Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales, out from 51.5-48.5 last week for a swing of around 4% compared with 2019; 57-43 in Victoria, in from 61-39, also for a swing of around 4%; 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, in from 57.5-42.5 for a swing of about 10%; and 58-42 from the tiny Tasmanian sample. The Coalition leads 53-47 in Queensland, in from 53.5-46.5 for a swing to Labor of about 5.5%, and 51-49 in South Australia, its first lead on this small sample measure since October, and a rather stark contrast to Labor’s 62.5-37.5 lead last week (the result in 2019 was 50.7-49.3 in favour of Labor).

The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1366. It will naturally be Morgan’s last of the campaign if it sticks to its usual schedule, although it may well pull something from its hat on the eve of the big day. The final Essential Research poll will reportedly be out on Wednesday, and it’s a known known that Newspoll and Ipsos each have a poll to come (it’s disappointing that we haven’t seen any state breakdowns from Newspoll, but hope springs eternal), and I assume the same will be true of Resolve Strategic. Until then:

• Ten News is teasing yet another result of Liberal Party internal polling from Peter van Onselen, this time suggesting Katherine Deves is “in with a shot” of unseating Zali Steggall in Warringah, seemingly along with results from other seats including Parramatta and Bennelong. UPDATE: This turns out to show the Liberals trailing on two-party preferred measures that include an uncommitted component by 49-48 in Reid, 50-43 in Bennelong and 50-41 in Parramatta, with particularly heavy deficits among women, but by only 53-47 in Warringah.

• Tom McIlroy of the Financial Review reports a Redbridge Group poll for North Sydney commissioned by Climate 200 has Liberal member Trent Zimmerman on 33.3%, independent Kylea Tink on 23.5% and Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw on 17.8%, with 7.5% undecided. The poll was conducted between May 3 and 14 from a sample of 1267.

• James Morrow of the Daily Telegraph reports a poll of Fowler conducted by Laidlaw Campaigns, presumably for independent Dai Le’s campaign, has Kristina Keneally leading Le by 45% to 38% after distribution of preferences and without excluding the 17% undecided. The poll also found Le was viewed favourably by 28% and unfavourably by 10%, while Keneally was at 24% and 30%. It was conducted three weeks ago from a sample of 618.

• Katharine Murphy of The Guardian notes a campaign endorsement for Katy Gallagher by Julia Gillard reflects concern that a win for independent candidate David Pocock in the Australian Capital Territory Senate race could come at the expense of Gallagher, and not Liberal Senator Zed Seselja as had generally presumed. A recent Redbridge poll suggested Pocock had gauged enough of his support from Labor to reduce Gallagher to 27%, well below the one-third quota for election

• The Australian Electoral Commission has issued a statement announcing that advertising by conservative activist group Advance Australia linking independents Zali Steggall and David Pocock to the Greens is in breach of the Electoral Act. The relevant section is section 329, banning material “likely to mislead or deceive an elector in relation to the casting of a vote”. The section is very commonly used as the basis of unsuccessful complaints about misleading political advertising, when it has been consistently been found to apply very narrowly to efforts to deceive voters into casting their ballots differently from how they intended. However, the statement suggests that the ruling made after the 2019 election over Chinese language signs encouraging votes for the Liberals in the seat of Chisholm, although dismissed, offers “a new judicial precedent” that seemingly paved the way for a more expansive interpretation.

• Ben Raue has produced highly instructive charts showing how each state’s two-party preferred vote has deviatied from the national result at elections going back to 1958.

• At the risk of getting ahead of ourselves, Andrew Clennell of Sky News reports that Josh Frydenberg is “said to have the numbers” against Peter Dutton to succeed Scott Morrison as Liberal leader should the party lose the election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

950 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 19
1 2 3 … 19

  2. Sandman @ #44 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:08 am

    The Australian is once again happy to be the Coalition’s propaganda machine glibly quoting SfM for paragraph after paragraph of Liberal HQ bollocks about how it is a close election and this is because —

    “Mr Morrison said the 2022 election would be decided in the last week of the campaign because voters were suffering from disengagement, fatigue with politicians, a final realisation the time had come to make a decision and a wish to go beyond the pandemic”.
    –
    I have been tipping 77 66 8 in favour of Labor for a week now. Nothing SfM says or The Australian does will change my view- their own Newspoll tells us the Coalition are gone.

    Well if Scomo says so it must be true, right ?

    77 66 8
    I agree. I just don’t know who gets to 77

  6. This election probably represents the last opportunity for pollsters to have any credibility in forecasting federal election outcomes. Hopefully their methods are working this time!

  7. Morning all. Some quick updates from the previous thread.

    * I’ve captured the late guesses and will post them sometime today (unless the wrong things happen).
    * I still have to scan today’s thread.
    * GlenO, sorry for the confusion. But I’ve got your guesses now. FWIW I double checked your original post and it matches what I reported last night. What likely happened is that I missed a subsequent update. My only excuse is that there was a lot of traffic yesterday, and it coincided with having to re-discover some overly complex spreadsheet shenanigans and update those with needed ‘improvements’.

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/05/15/utting-research-perth-seat-polls-and-liberal-party-briefing-wars/comment-page-26/#comment-3907008

  9. ltep @ #42 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:00 am

    Instead of calling for people to be banned, just ignore them.

    Trouble even after you block them others quote the OP in full so you get the message anyway,giving the OP the oxygen they so crave.
    My logic is block them and don’t quote them,just ignore them.Problem solved.

  10. If it’s 34-34 , if you split the 32 non 2 major party vote 50-50 instead of 60-40 you get 50:50 2PP.

    Still if you give the greens 10% and split that 80:20 , Labor would need only 36.4% of all remaining preferences to win the 2PP vote?

  11. Those North Sydney results are wildly different from yesterday’s. We have Liberal 33.3, Teal 23.5, Labor 17.8, Someone Else 17.9 and 7.5 undecided. Maybe half of “Someone Else” would be Green. The remainder would be split between two progressives and four nutjobs.

    Assuming 80% of Labor preferences go Teal, ‘Someone Else’ splits 50-50 and ignoring ‘undecided’, I get 2PP of Teal 51. With an MOE of about 3%, it’s too close to call.

    Which seat poll to believe? Perhaps neither.

  12. The loose unitsays:
    Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 7:08 am
    What’s the minimum primary for the lnp to get back in?

    I’ve calculated 39, I guess it depends on how preferences flow

    –
    Preference flows will be interesting with about 16% non Green ‘others’ up for grabs but I would imagine the Coalition would still need to jump from 35-39 PV at least to ‘win’ a minority Government. Too little, too late !!

    PS: Bandt in Brisbane claiming they could get the BOP in both houses again. LMFAO.

  14. “The poll shows both major parties on what even by recent standards are remarkably low primary votes of 34% each, with Labor down 1.5% on last week and the Coalition steady. The Greens are on 13%, One Nation is on 4% and the United Australia Party is on 1%, all unchanged on last week, with independents up half to 9% and “others” up one to 5%.”

    The Greens are, as expected, second-preferencing the ALP everywhere and this time around their primary vote will not reflect greatly Teal voters, who will have their own candidates in very many seats. So, with just ALP and Greens, the ALP should get a 48% 2PP. ON and Palmer are polling at 5%, but it’s unclear how many of their voters will actually follow their HTVC and preference the Coalition above Labor (how many of them are still struggling from bushfires and floods and the Scomo government’s failure on those fronts? Not to speak suffering unemployment and high costs of living?). Then there is a 14% for Independents+”others”, but for some reason the preferences seem to be split 2/3 for the Coalition, which is perhaps more reflective of past elections than this one.

    So, Morgan got it right with the direction of the result, but they may have failed in predicting the size of the loss for the Coalition…. We will know soon enough.

  19. I think it would be smart for Labor to locate a young couple wanting to buy their first home who think that Labor’s Help To Buy scheme is better than Morrison’s Beggar Thyself policy.

  20. sprocket_ (Block)
    Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 6:03 am
    Comment #16

    Guardian Australia understands in private YouGov seat polls, 58% of respondents in Ryan, 57% in Bennelong, 62% in Brisbane and 65% in Higgins disapproved of Morrison’s performance as prime minister when asked whether they had a positive or negative view of the Liberal leader.

    I reckon the Lib candidate in Ryan knows this very well. Mr Morrison disappeared from all his promotional material some time ago. He’s door knocking (I think. We were out.) and leaving notes to the effect that he wants to talk about his plans for the area. In other words Mr Morrison doesn’t exist and the last 3 years never happened.

  21. C@tmomma @ #39 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 6:59 am

    mundo @ #28 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 6:41 am

    Trafford10 @ #26 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 6:37 am

    34% FPV for Labor if true is of serious concern. Labor will not get to a majority with 34% FPV.

    This has been a terrible government for 9 years and the conservatives have held power 20 of the last 26 years and Labor can only get 34%?

    Also, the government’s release of up to $50k of superannuation may be bad policy but it will get votes. If you are in the cohort that policy is targeting, why wouldn’t you want the option.

    And so it begins.
    Late, but it’s here.
    The creeping miracle.

    Can mundo get the same sort of temporary ban that Bushfire Bill has been placed under until after the election!?! This sort of crap is seriously unhelpful and on the nose. It contributes nothing. Just takes some random’s comment and riffs negatively off it. 😡

    Actually, my comments this morning have been quite varied.

  22. @Steve777 A Lib primary vote of 36 (after removing undecided) is way too low to win. Past contests indicate preferences (mostly Labor/Green) flow very strongly to the climate independent.

  24. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 7:18 am

    90% to Labor… their key objectives align with Labor policy 100%

  25. I wonder if historically, preferred PM has had an influence on preference flows ?

    Maybe KB or someone has looked at that ?

  26. Someone is going to have egg on their face with that Deves prediction. I’m guessing it’ll be PVO.

  29. mundo @ #68 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:20 am

    C@tmomma @ #39 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 6:59 am

    mundo @ #28 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 6:41 am

    Trafford10 @ #26 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 6:37 am

    34% FPV for Labor if true is of serious concern. Labor will not get to a majority with 34% FPV.

    This has been a terrible government for 9 years and the conservatives have held power 20 of the last 26 years and Labor can only get 34%?

    Also, the government’s release of up to $50k of superannuation may be bad policy but it will get votes. If you are in the cohort that policy is targeting, why wouldn’t you want the option.

    And so it begins.
    Late, but it’s here.
    The creeping miracle.

    Can mundo get the same sort of temporary ban that Bushfire Bill has been placed under until after the election!?! This sort of crap is seriously unhelpful and on the nose. It contributes nothing. Just takes some random’s comment and riffs negatively off it. 😡

    Actually, my comments this morning have been quite varied.

    Yep, riffs off the same theme. Despondency and resignation. It may be your opinion but do you have to start off the day with it and then keep on going and going and going with it?

  30. Josh really is pulling all the stops to hang on in Kooyong!

    The daughter of former prime minister and Liberal Party founding father, Robert Menzies, has urged voters in the Melbourne seat of Kooyong to keep Treasurer Josh Frydenberg.

    As regular readers of this blog will know, independent candidate Monique Ryan is challenging Frydenberg at this election. Both candidates say Saturday’s result could come down to a few hundred votes.

    Chip Le Grand spoke to Menzies’ daughter Heather Henderson. She is 93 years old and says she doesn’t want to die with her father’s former seat in non-Liberal hands.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/election-2022-live-updates-scott-morrison-insists-coalition-s-super-home-buyer-scheme-is-well-calibrated-anthony-albanese-wants-deeper-ties-with-south-east-asia-20220516-p5alss.html?post=p53pog#p53pog

  32. “The Coalition leads 53-47 in Queensland, in from 53.5-46.5 for a swing to Labor of about 5.5%, and 51-49 in South Australia, its first lead on this small sample measure since October, and a rather stark contrast to Labor’s 62.5-37.5 lead last week (the result in 2019 was 50.7-49.3 in favour of Labor).”

    There is where Morgan may have run into troubles. Queensland is looking far closer to 50-50 than to 53% for the Coalition. The Liberal-controlled media are throwing everything at Labor here (both Palaszczuk and Albo), but we are essentially back to normal life and we know that Labor made a positive difference for us during the pandemic, compared with the Coalition-led NSW Covid disaster (the value of real estate in Qld has been shooting up in the past year, mainly courtesy of Covid refugees from both NSW and Vic). The SE of the state, where most seats are, is shifting to Labor. As for SA, 50.7% for the Coalition is as non-believable as the previous 62.5% for the ALP…. I guess that reality will fall somewhere in between: 52% for the ALP?

  35. mj @ #74 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:25 am

    Just at a guess I’d think teal preferences would favour Labor around 60-40, I think teals attract Labor/Greens voters as much as disaffected Liberals in what are otherwise perceived safe Liberal seats. 85% of Labor/Greens preferences flowed to Steggall at the 2019 election.

    https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseDivisionPage-24310-151.htm

    Yes I did hear that a lot of Teal voters are strategic voters who would normally support the ALP candidate. So 1 Teal, 2 ALP. As opposed to those genuinely disaffected former Liberal voters. However, if you’re so disaffected you can no longer vote Liberal would you necessarily put them second?

    Boy, preference flows sure are going to be the story of this election!

  38. Given the major Parties virtually split their primary vote, both are reliant on preferences (as I have put on here before – this is an election of preferences)

    So what is the preference flow to be?

    Then there is the impact of the Teals on polling – so this vote coming almost exclusively from the Tory vote because of the seats they are standing in

    So dismiss them and transfer their polling to Tory

    Where does this take the anti Labor vote to?

    And how far short of (say) 49% which may be sufficient 2PP?

    Ditto the pro Labor vote getting to 51%

    Is the Greens at over 10% overstated on history?

    And if so, where does the out performance return to?

    Interesting is that the pro Labor swing is to the order of 3/4% across the Eaatern seaboard -then WA

    And what impact is there on SA polling line ball, noting the movement?

    Then you have the minors, so Katter, Hanson, Palmer and others

    So many questions – all down to the preference flow

    From the traditional rusted on base

  40. C@t

    Steve777,
    As a sample of 1, can I ask you if you’ve been polled in North Sydney?

    No I haven’t.

    I did get a robocall from John Howard last night (now is not the time to change, Teal —> hung Parliament —> chaos, etc.).

  41. Is the Greens at over 10% overstated on history?

    Doesn’t Morgan have a history of overstating The Greens’ vote?

  42. Any former Liberal voter who does not put 1 in the Liberal box on the ballot paper, is at risk of their preference leaking.

    And especially if the reason that 1 is missing from the Liberal box is they hate Scott Morrison, there is more chance of leakage. Applies to Teals, UAP etc.

  44. Confessions says:
    Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 7:26 am
    Chip Le Grand spoke to Menzies’ daughter Heather Henderson. She is 93 years old and says she doesn’t want to die with her father’s former seat in non-Liberal hands.
    —
    The Menzies era ended 56 years ago. In the 2016 ABS Census, the median age in Kooyong was 38. The Lib focus on older voters continues again, helped by their friends in the media.

  45. Steve777 @ #87 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:33 am

    C@t

    Steve777,
    As a sample of 1, can I ask you if you’ve been polled in North Sydney?

    No I haven’t.

    I did get a robocall from John Howard last night (now is not the time to change, Teal —> hung Parliament —> chaos, etc.).

    Thanks for that. I just thought it statistically possible as there have been so many polls done in North Sydney this election. Btw, is Kylea Tink out of COVID-19 iso yet?

  48. ”
    Lars Von Triersays:
    Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 6:25 am
    Take 1.5 off Morgan (for being Morgan) and that’s probably the true position 51.5-48.5

    With the low primary votes should be some interesting results around the place.

    Sophie award contenders at this stage:

    Katy Gallagher – Act senate
    Kristina Keneally – Fowler
    Terri Butler – Griffith
    Rob Mitchell – McEwen
    ”

    Lars
    Enjoy while you can. 🙂
    And you could party be responsible for increase in blood pressure of mundo. 🙂

  49. “Holdenhillbillysays:
    Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 6:11 am
    The ALP-skewed respondent 2PP was 56.5 (+0.5) and they didn’t mention it in the release.”

    Is this true?

    It seems this is an important bit of information to provide, particularly given the difference between the outcomes and with 15% listing “independent” or ” other”.

Comments Page 2 of 19
1 2 3 … 19

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *