Roy Morgan has dropped its weekly federal campaign poll, which shows Labor’s two-party preferred lead narrowing from 54.5-45.5 to more believable 53-47. While this is Labor’s weakest two-party result from Roy Morgan since October, the respondent-allocated preferences measure the pollster used until last week had Labor at least one point higher when it was tied with the Coalition on the primary vote, and sometimes substantially higher. The two-party numbers are now determined by allocating preferences flows as per the result of the 2019 election.
The poll shows both major parties on what even by recent standards are remarkably low primary votes of 34% each, with Labor down 1.5% on last week and the Coalition steady. The Greens are on 13%, One Nation is on 4% and the United Australia Party is on 1%, all unchanged on last week, with independents up half to 9% and “others” up one to 5%.
The usual two-party state breakdowns have Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales, out from 51.5-48.5 last week for a swing of around 4% compared with 2019; 57-43 in Victoria, in from 61-39, also for a swing of around 4%; 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, in from 57.5-42.5 for a swing of about 10%; and 58-42 from the tiny Tasmanian sample. The Coalition leads 53-47 in Queensland, in from 53.5-46.5 for a swing to Labor of about 5.5%, and 51-49 in South Australia, its first lead on this small sample measure since October, and a rather stark contrast to Labor’s 62.5-37.5 lead last week (the result in 2019 was 50.7-49.3 in favour of Labor).
The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1366. It will naturally be Morgan’s last of the campaign if it sticks to its usual schedule, although it may well pull something from its hat on the eve of the big day. The final Essential Research poll will reportedly be out on Wednesday, and it’s a known known that Newspoll and Ipsos each have a poll to come (it’s disappointing that we haven’t seen any state breakdowns from Newspoll, but hope springs eternal), and I assume the same will be true of Resolve Strategic. Until then:
• Ten News is teasing yet another result of Liberal Party internal polling from Peter van Onselen, this time suggesting Katherine Deves is “in with a shot” of unseating Zali Steggall in Warringah, seemingly along with results from other seats including Parramatta and Bennelong. UPDATE: This turns out to show the Liberals trailing on two-party preferred measures that include an uncommitted component by 49-48 in Reid, 50-43 in Bennelong and 50-41 in Parramatta, with particularly heavy deficits among women, but by only 53-47 in Warringah.
• Tom McIlroy of the Financial Review reports a Redbridge Group poll for North Sydney commissioned by Climate 200 has Liberal member Trent Zimmerman on 33.3%, independent Kylea Tink on 23.5% and Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw on 17.8%, with 7.5% undecided. The poll was conducted between May 3 and 14 from a sample of 1267.
• James Morrow of the Daily Telegraph reports a poll of Fowler conducted by Laidlaw Campaigns, presumably for independent Dai Le’s campaign, has Kristina Keneally leading Le by 45% to 38% after distribution of preferences and without excluding the 17% undecided. The poll also found Le was viewed favourably by 28% and unfavourably by 10%, while Keneally was at 24% and 30%. It was conducted three weeks ago from a sample of 618.
• Katharine Murphy of The Guardian notes a campaign endorsement for Katy Gallagher by Julia Gillard reflects concern that a win for independent candidate David Pocock in the Australian Capital Territory Senate race could come at the expense of Gallagher, and not Liberal Senator Zed Seselja as had generally presumed. A recent Redbridge poll suggested Pocock had gauged enough of his support from Labor to reduce Gallagher to 27%, well below the one-third quota for election
• The Australian Electoral Commission has issued a statement announcing that advertising by conservative activist group Advance Australia linking independents Zali Steggall and David Pocock to the Greens is in breach of the Electoral Act. The relevant section is section 329, banning material “likely to mislead or deceive an elector in relation to the casting of a vote”. The section is very commonly used as the basis of unsuccessful complaints about misleading political advertising, when it has been consistently been found to apply very narrowly to efforts to deceive voters into casting their ballots differently from how they intended. However, the statement suggests that the ruling made after the 2019 election over Chinese language signs encouraging votes for the Liberals in the seat of Chisholm, although dismissed, offers “a new judicial precedent” that seemingly paved the way for a more expansive interpretation.
• Ben Raue has produced highly instructive charts showing how each state’s two-party preferred vote has deviatied from the national result at elections going back to 1958.
• At the risk of getting ahead of ourselves, Andrew Clennell of Sky News reports that Josh Frydenberg is “said to have the numbers” against Peter Dutton to succeed Scott Morrison as Liberal leader should the party lose the election.
@Victoria
Lots of chatter about a hung parliament (despite all evidence to the contrary), Labor may not get there off the swing… the polls are too good etc.
But… we’ve got 3.5 fucking days of this nonsense to go, so… who knows.
Yeah it looked terrible for the journos who have not covered themselfves in glory during this campaign. Gotta be the worst bunch of losers ever.
Labor should openly laugh at pressers about the Liberals trotting out John Howard, the desperate loser who left the country with an unrepairable structural deficit and a housing price explosion.
Wow, the Merdeoch papers and their TV media mates will be hounding Albo’s refusal to come up with Labor’s costing till Thursday.
Just out of interest, when did both majors release their costings in the 2019 election?
The media aside, do any PBers think this move is a negative for Labor?
The MSM must have a close Election narrative to keep people interested in the news.
Jt1983
As i mentioned earlier. I went to vote earlier, and was very triggered by the amount of UAP reps.
Gonna be a long 3.5 days
John Howard has been deployed to undertake preparatory grief counselling. The most high profile Liberal to lose his own seat in living memory, Howard is helping Josh Frydenberg through the various stages of loss. He’s also making himself to Liberals more broadly ahead of Saturday’s defeat (touch wood).
Lol Taylormade
So far 4 pm news has only featured the lying rodent visiting the desperate Lnp candidates in vic
There is a growing “electoral volatility” in western Sydney, with experts saying residents have “departed from the script” in a region which could prove critical to deciding the federal election.
A new study from the Centre for Western Sydney that analysed federal election voting patterns found a level of volatility above national trends.
Five of western Sydney’s 14 federal electorates are now marginal, with the report outlining a confluence of issues that are combining to alter the electoral landscape.
Tony Burke
Labor pledges to get creative industries ‘back on track quickly’ as it announces arts policy
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The study found growing political literacy, combined with lower levels of education attainment, and higher rates of multilingualism, cultural diversity and religious faith have resulted in an unpredictable battleground.
“Western Sydney’s quiet Australians are restless and its unlikely either of the major parties will be able to claim the region as its own for some time,” the report said.
“Howard’s battlers and Labor heartland no longer, western Sydney voters are expressing a diversity in opinion at the ballot box to an extent that defies prediction and conventional political logic.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/17/western-sydneys-time-as-a-stronghold-for-either-major-party-is-over-expert-says
jt1983 @ #697 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 4:26 pm
People were saying that about the WA state election, too. Turned out the polls were underestimating Labor’s 2PP, with the final Newspoll underestimating by almost 4%.
I’ve heard no reason to think that their methodology has changed since last year.
Greensborough Growler @ #654 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 3:49 pm
Turnbull is backing the Teals.
“Greensborough Growlersays:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 4:27 pm
The MSM must have a close Election narrative to keep people interested in the news.”
Debatable whether that’s a dominant factor or they are just doing the Coalition’s bidding
In 2016 Chris Uhlmann called the election 2 weeks out and then shorten got asked whether he was going to step down when he inevitably lost for the remainder of the campaign
Greensborough Growler @ #705 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 4:27 pm
+1
I believe a minority Labor government (and even worse) is still on the cards, particularly if that housing/super policy lands the way I think it is. I’d like to see some big and impactful policy idea to grab some attention in the final days to change the topic and secure that majority.
Their housing plan is clever politically as it creates a clear policy and ideological difference for them to pursue. On one hand you’ve got Labor ‘wanting the government to own your home’ and on the other it’s ‘you owning your own home with money you already have’ (intentionally using their framing). See how this starts to play in their favour?
If they do well, and he still has an interest, he could lead them as a legitimate party in 2025. They already have the branding.
…good lord.
Lukesays: Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 4:20 pm
@Dr Fumbles
Did you really vote at a place called Hicksville, or is that code for voting in a redneck town?
……………………………………………………………………………..
Reminds of TV series “Justified”
U.S. Marshal Raylan Givens is reassigned from Miami to his childhood home in the poor, rural coal mining towns of eastern Kentucky.
Character – I hate it here. Kentucky. I hate every one of these toothless, banjo strumming, red neck pricks.
Fulvio
Sorry for delay just got home.
Im using my phone & for me it’s a bloody chore to post, small keys, screen & arthritis & I’m not prepared to bog my phone down with apps.
Jt I wish I had your unwavering confidence of a Labor victory
Late Riser @ #712 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 4:36 pm
He’s fairly egocentric, but he’s not stupid. He knows it wouldn’t happen. Turnbull won’t be “leading” them. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he joins them as a member if they coalesce into a party.
Now, I could imagine Julie Bishop and Christopher Pyne joining them and re-entering politics. I could even see Bishop becoming their leader, with a bit of manoeuvring.
The forlorn hope of the losing side is epitomized by hanging on to the belief that how a presser ends four days from polling will save the day. If that sways your vote, you were never voting Labor anyway.
Reminder: I’m posting the long lists of guesses on the previous thread.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/05/16/move-it-or-lose-it/comment-page-31/#comment-3909349
Let me know (either thread) if I’ve misinterpreted your intended guesses.
Not releasing costings/1 presser/1 “gaffe” will not cost the alp an election – if they don’t win it’s because (once again) the average Australian wants to stick with the lnp.
Everyone needs to stop worrying – the only ones who care about albo “running away” are rusted on lnp voters. This won’t change anyone’s vote – the only ones who care were never going to vote alp anyway.
The alp will release costings in due course and in 4 days we will find out if we have a new government – if the unfortunate happens then I’ll question the average person/wonder how could they vote them back in.
Smirko didn’t even stop to talk to aboriginal reporters
Dutton lost his defamation case
Howard was out campaigning with frydenberg (howard has the kiss of death)
I’m pretty calm and don’t have the same feeling I did in 2019.
Got to admit, sometimes this place is a steam cooker….
I mean, report that Albo “walked away from a press conference” and he would lose votes over this at this late stage?…Come on………
What, still 15 million people still to vote and they will have seen/cared about/gave a stuff about such an event….? Get real…….
Most people in their busy lives have no idea of the day-to-day comings and goings of either Albanese or Morrison.
I am a tragic here, but up until this morning I did not know where Morrison was and what he was doing – Apparently he was in Darwin and then heading back to Sydney…..Did I know? No…Did I care? No….Same applies to Albanese….
The press ferals have been at it for 5 plus weeks…
Who gives a toss about what they report now?
Too late…………………………
There’s no point worrying. There’s little anyone can do in a few days to change the outcome.
For those fretting about Albo looking bad at todays press conference, the voters that matter won’t see it.
GlenO @ #721 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 4:38 pm
That’s a very gentle, “No.” 🙂 I concede the point. Not him then, but the potential is developing.
@hazza – I see no reason not to have a degree of confidence. I KNOW it might not happen… we were all there before.
I’m prepared if the Coalition wins…
Better to be honest with yourself and say what you think/see rather than perpetual hedging and self-defensiveness.
I’ll be exceptionally disappointed – but I won’t be shocked/side-swiped. It was the same approach I took to 2020 in the US – Trump won once, so it could happen again, I just never saw it as likely to happen.
After the hypo venting from the media
Im tipping labor will increase its margin on Saturday night
Off to make dinner…back later.
PVO’s leaked polling on Ten News reportedly shows women deserting Smirko
How about this as an obvious truth for pollsters to learn from this election.
‘Lower (LNP) primaries lead to lower preference flows’
Little update from my sleepy southern corner of Page
Was campaigning with Hanabeth on Sunday, visiting both Sikh temples in Woolgoolga before a community town hall.
A very good days effort, with Hanabeth securing the verbal endorsement of the elders (for lack of a better word) of both temples. The area has a very large Sikh community, mostly farmers who used to grow bananas but now mostly berries or horticulture. This group is usually solidly Nats (our state Nat for coffs is from this community) but reckon Kevin Hogan is useless and invisible except for ribbon cuttings, and everyone I spoke to seemed genuinely impressed we’d taken the time to come and talk to them and hear their concerns. If they follow through with votes this could be decisive, one elder said wtte that we got 5000 votes right there. Hopefully they follow through on the day
Interesting conversations, every single one we spoke to were dead set against the recent FWA decision to apply the minimum wage floor under piece rates, I’ll spare bludgers the ins and outs of berry farming (hugely divisive in the area) unless there is any interest, but Hanabeths background in farm science and focus on sustainable agriculture (both financially and environmentally) was very well received.
Could be some spillover for Caz Heiss in Cowper and some of these farmers would be in that electorate and she has a similar platform
Community hall also went well, not a massive turnout but probably about half the attendees were genuinely undecided and I reckon all bar one left convinced. I don’t know enough about the campaign in the rest of the electorate but was encouraged by what I saw on Sunday
Will still be a genuine 3 way contest but I’m now more confident that if Hanabeth can get to 2nd over Patrick Deegan she’s the best chance of getting rid of Kevin Hogan
As other bludgers have said could be a bolter and one of the more interesting contests on the night
I’m a booth captain on the big day, single malt standing by for Albo as OM and Hanabeth in parliament
Was also very pleased to hear that regardless of the outcome Hanabeth wants to grow the bidding voices4page movement (which I have also joined) to try and ‘turn the page’s next election if not this one. Game on
Ch 10 news preview – polling shows women are deserting the Libs in droves.
brucemainstream says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 4:34 pm
I believe a minority Labor government (and even worse) is still on the cards, particularly if that housing/super policy lands the way I think it is. I’d like to see some big and impactful policy idea to grab some attention in the final days to change the topic and secure that majority.
Their housing plan is clever politically as it creates a clear policy and ideological difference for them to pursue. On one hand you’ve got Labor ‘wanting the government to own your home’ and on the other it’s ‘you owning your own home with money you already have’ (intentionally using their framing). See how this starts to play in their favour?
_____________________
It’s not going to be a great win – but will still be a win. Labor can’t miss form here.
On basic cost of living stuff, reminders are everywhere to see for voters that things are getting worse.
* The brief respite from $2 plus a litre petrol is over. The halving of the excise achieved nothing for the LNP. Both unleaded and diesel near me (in Deakin) are both about $2.15 a litre.
* Households are right now grappling with their higher mortgage bills, as the RBA confirms that even higher rates are just around the corner.
* Senior ABC finance reporter Peter Ryan said in his reporting today that he couldn’t find a single economist who though the LNP’s super raiding plan is a good idea.
Good arvo lads and ladies, calm the nerves Laborites, we’ll get there, got the beer fridge filled up for a big night.
Government will go hard cos they think they have Albo on the run re:costings
D says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 4:46 pm
Government will go hard cos they think they have Albo on the run re:costings
———————————-
They thought that on day 1 of the campaign
The Daily Tellmecrap continues with operation Don’t Mention the war.
Main online headlines are “Tarek Zahed’s bikie mate arrested by Raptor on drugs charge” and “Cops roll out specialist squads to tackle domestic violence” . The Albo ‘walk out’ headline is small and a few rows below more important items such as “Vote now: NSW’s best local beauty therapists”
99% of Aussies don’t watch the pressers so whether he left abruptly or if it appeared bad to some rusted on r-w loonies is neither here nor there. Most people do not care about such things. E.g. compare the babbling performance of ScottytheBulldozer to that presser …
Neither a gamechanger and anyone who thinks it is really needs to get a life
Taylormade says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 4:25 pm
It looked terrible.
—
Nice try, but it’s already old news.
news.com.au is the busiest non-ABC news website in Australia. Read by millions of people who aren’t really engaged with politics. And the Albanese story is a fair way down the page with a small (relatively honest) headline:
“Furious reporters chase Albo out of presser”
Anthony Albanese was chased down by reporters demanding answers to their questions after he abruptly ended a fiery press conference on Tuesday.
After Day 1 the corrupt media hacks claim the federal election is over Morrison and his cronies will be re-elected
Final week of the campaign the corrupt media hacks are trying to stop Labor getting between 85- 90 seats
Hubby’s analysis of Canavan (verbatim) “he a f*#@ing Cro-Magnon man” on afternoon briefing.
He and I are sympatico
The corrupt media hacks are also trying to stop the lib/nats net total of seats getting below 55 seats
Morrison will not walk out from the NPC. The gutless wonder won’t go near the place.
Scott, your all over the shop on your numbers. They’ve have changed substantially from your predictions this morning.
That worm uhlmann will be all over Albos ” walk-out “
phoenixRED says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 4:36 pm
Lukesays: Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 4:20 pm
@Dr Fumbles
Did you really vote at a place called Hicksville, or is that code for voting in a redneck town?
___________________
Well I call it Hicksville, or the full name, Upperbumfuck in Vic, and yes redneck is the word, an electorate of old people, wheat farmers, cookers and assorted low conseravtive groups and one of the safest places for the Nationals. My first experience here was to be met with a tirade expletives about Juila Gillard so kinda set the tone.
No letterboxing here, just one billboard from the Independent, no coflutes, no rorts and carparks, in fact if it wasn’t for PB no idea there was even an election on.
All right, I do give Hicksville shit, but in 2019, the booth actually was 51/49 to the LNP with a 3 cornered contest PV ALP 38, Nats 10, Lib 27 and a much bigger range of cookers with Fraser Anning, the BCFFnFun on 5 and Palmer on 5, greens an also ran of 3.
Will be an interesting local contest anyway and I am keen to see how it performs. Indeed, Hicksville is in one of the most marginal State electorate and the LNP member only has a majority of 15 votes.
“Luke says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 4:20 pm
@Dr Fumbles
Did you really vote at a place called Hicksville, or is that code for voting in a redneck town?”
Google Maps lists four Hicksvilles in the US.