Roy Morgan has dropped its weekly federal campaign poll, which shows Labor’s two-party preferred lead narrowing from 54.5-45.5 to more believable 53-47. While this is Labor’s weakest two-party result from Roy Morgan since October, the respondent-allocated preferences measure the pollster used until last week had Labor at least one point higher when it was tied with the Coalition on the primary vote, and sometimes substantially higher. The two-party numbers are now determined by allocating preferences flows as per the result of the 2019 election.
The poll shows both major parties on what even by recent standards are remarkably low primary votes of 34% each, with Labor down 1.5% on last week and the Coalition steady. The Greens are on 13%, One Nation is on 4% and the United Australia Party is on 1%, all unchanged on last week, with independents up half to 9% and “others” up one to 5%.
The usual two-party state breakdowns have Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales, out from 51.5-48.5 last week for a swing of around 4% compared with 2019; 57-43 in Victoria, in from 61-39, also for a swing of around 4%; 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, in from 57.5-42.5 for a swing of about 10%; and 58-42 from the tiny Tasmanian sample. The Coalition leads 53-47 in Queensland, in from 53.5-46.5 for a swing to Labor of about 5.5%, and 51-49 in South Australia, its first lead on this small sample measure since October, and a rather stark contrast to Labor’s 62.5-37.5 lead last week (the result in 2019 was 50.7-49.3 in favour of Labor).
The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1366. It will naturally be Morgan’s last of the campaign if it sticks to its usual schedule, although it may well pull something from its hat on the eve of the big day. The final Essential Research poll will reportedly be out on Wednesday, and it’s a known known that Newspoll and Ipsos each have a poll to come (it’s disappointing that we haven’t seen any state breakdowns from Newspoll, but hope springs eternal), and I assume the same will be true of Resolve Strategic. Until then:
• Ten News is teasing yet another result of Liberal Party internal polling from Peter van Onselen, this time suggesting Katherine Deves is “in with a shot” of unseating Zali Steggall in Warringah, seemingly along with results from other seats including Parramatta and Bennelong. UPDATE: This turns out to show the Liberals trailing on two-party preferred measures that include an uncommitted component by 49-48 in Reid, 50-43 in Bennelong and 50-41 in Parramatta, with particularly heavy deficits among women, but by only 53-47 in Warringah.
• Tom McIlroy of the Financial Review reports a Redbridge Group poll for North Sydney commissioned by Climate 200 has Liberal member Trent Zimmerman on 33.3%, independent Kylea Tink on 23.5% and Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw on 17.8%, with 7.5% undecided. The poll was conducted between May 3 and 14 from a sample of 1267.
• James Morrow of the Daily Telegraph reports a poll of Fowler conducted by Laidlaw Campaigns, presumably for independent Dai Le’s campaign, has Kristina Keneally leading Le by 45% to 38% after distribution of preferences and without excluding the 17% undecided. The poll also found Le was viewed favourably by 28% and unfavourably by 10%, while Keneally was at 24% and 30%. It was conducted three weeks ago from a sample of 618.
• Katharine Murphy of The Guardian notes a campaign endorsement for Katy Gallagher by Julia Gillard reflects concern that a win for independent candidate David Pocock in the Australian Capital Territory Senate race could come at the expense of Gallagher, and not Liberal Senator Zed Seselja as had generally presumed. A recent Redbridge poll suggested Pocock had gauged enough of his support from Labor to reduce Gallagher to 27%, well below the one-third quota for election
• The Australian Electoral Commission has issued a statement announcing that advertising by conservative activist group Advance Australia linking independents Zali Steggall and David Pocock to the Greens is in breach of the Electoral Act. The relevant section is section 329, banning material “likely to mislead or deceive an elector in relation to the casting of a vote”. The section is very commonly used as the basis of unsuccessful complaints about misleading political advertising, when it has been consistently been found to apply very narrowly to efforts to deceive voters into casting their ballots differently from how they intended. However, the statement suggests that the ruling made after the 2019 election over Chinese language signs encouraging votes for the Liberals in the seat of Chisholm, although dismissed, offers “a new judicial precedent” that seemingly paved the way for a more expansive interpretation.
• Ben Raue has produced highly instructive charts showing how each state’s two-party preferred vote has deviatied from the national result at elections going back to 1958.
• At the risk of getting ahead of ourselves, Andrew Clennell of Sky News reports that Josh Frydenberg is “said to have the numbers” against Peter Dutton to succeed Scott Morrison as Liberal leader should the party lose the election.
Hi Late Riser,
Put me down for:
Party/ Group. |. On the night | Final Result
ALP. | 77 |. 79
Green. | 1. | 1
Ind. |. 8. | 9
Coal. |. 59 | 62
Result known by 8.20 pm
Morrison to declare at 10:50 pm
TPP 52.7 / 47.3
The big gap between 2PP and seats won by ALP reflects a big swing to the ALP in seats they win or hold, but a small swing against in seats the Coalition hold.
citizen at 3:39 pm
IF they lose the blame will become ALL ‘SfM the goat’s’ fault, the goat will then be tossed into the volcano and they’ll declare all is well again .
JenAuthor @ #646 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 3:41 pm
I’m a data geek/in reporting and in 2019 I could see the primary vote being high enough for the lnp to get back in.
This time around the primary is too low and the lnp would need to receive 55% of preferences (28% green, 88% uap/onp, 65% independent) which is outside the norm.
With normal preference flows they receive about 40% – they need 40% primary minimum to reach 50.2%.
The best weapon the Libs would have against the Teal onslaught would have been Turnbull.
It’s a pity for the Libs he is otherwise engaged.
In Tasmania, independent defeats Labor candidate for seat of Huon in the Legislative Council, 52.6/47.4
Stephen Koukoulas
@TheKouk
·
6m
Federal election betting update:
More money on the Coalition and a very chunky $95,000 or so laying Labor from $1.31 to $1.34.
A closer poll coming shortly?
I’ve had a chance to skim the methodology behind this forecast. It’s interesting in that it uses a probabilistic technique (Monte Carlo is what we used to call it) at the seat level, correlating the current polling results as well as the current and past polling trends to bias the computerised dice and project a likely vote on Saturday. That’s a fair bit of number crunching. I can imagine simulating 100,000 different elections to predict 100,000 different results for each of the 151 seats. Those 100,000 simulated election results are then analysed and converted into probabilities.
Forecast: https://www.aeforecasts.com/forecast/2022fed/regular
Methodology: https://www.aeforecasts.com/methodology
The other thing I noticed is that the technique was used to analyse actual votes of the SA election as they were reported on the night, to project the final result with ever increasing certainty. I expect something similar will be done for the federal election.
The only wrinkle I did not see was if and then how early voting might be handled. But otherwise this seems to be a robust tool.
Clenell just reported thatAndrew Clenell sky just reported Dai le clamed to control fairfield liberal party branch in 2020 desbite
being exbelled from liberals maybi labor is leaking against her
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 3:37 pm
Off to do the graveyard shift at the Robertson Pre Poll in Woy Woy.
中华人民共和国
Go you good thing!!!
Aaron Newton,
I would not be so sure it is Labor doing the leaking. She certainly did not make any friends in the Liberal party while she was a member.
re: Loose Unit
Tt is 3.53 pm so another poster may have responded to your post regarding Queensland results.
A 50/50 split, based on current trends would be a win to Labor and see a number of LNP seats fall – maybe 5 or 6 – and possibly deliver government to the ALP through the northern door.
The Coalition are running three campaigns! This is the most two (3?) faced election campaign I have seen. They are shapeshifters, people who stand for nothing but winning government. It is a joke. The ALP as an absolute minimum must run a clean, concise and consistent and united narrative to be given the time of the day by the press, but the Coalition can be as openly divided as they like and still get serious and balanced (or worse – partisan) coverage.
It is a complete farce and the MSM cant/wont touch them on it. They cant govern as a team and they wont campaign as one. Please peeps, dont elect this rabble again.
Holdenhillbilly @ #656 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 3:21 pm
Resolve?
The betting markets can just be someone laying off after making a profit. Too much examining the entrails.
BK @ #660 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 3:54 pm
If that was going to pop out, why would you ever break the glass? You’d place a guard, wouldn’t you?
Just days after emerging as the new leader of the Philippines, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos jnr has made a secret trip to Australia.
The son and namesake of the country’s late former dictator romped to victory in last week’s presidential election, returning the notorious family to power 36 years after they fled to exile in Hawaii. Ferdinand Marcos jnr has steadfastly defended his father’s legacy and refused to apologise for the massive human rights violations and plunder under his rule.
The result will not be confirmed until Congress resumes in Manila next week and Marcos is not due to be sworn in and begin his six-year term until June 30.
In the meantime, the 64-year-old has flown to Melbourne, where his youngest son Vincent is said to be enrolling to study at the University of Melbourne.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/philippines-new-president-ferdinand-bongbong-marcos-makes-secret-trip-to-australia-20220517-p5am29.html?ref=rss
The Coalition’s $5.5 billion sub waste was the mother of all efficiency dividends.
Hope today’s press conference doesn’t damage Albo’s vote too much. Not sure of the full context but didn’t look great.
@Luke – nah.
Standalone micro-events don’t change things, especially at this point.
Interesting Curtin odds have not tightened as much as the odds in NSW teal seats despite starting with shorter odds than Mackeller, any thoughts on why that is? and on Curtin contest generally?
Boerwar at 4:01 pm
The subs ‘efficiency dividend’ the Liberals obtained from the subs was so good that after paying for them the manning and maintenance costs were reduced to $0.
@thekouk
ALP is still $1.30 on Sportsbet, but a closer poll result could definitely be part of it. Albo did walk out of a press conference with dozens of reporters in pursuit that looked pretty awful- it may be a reaction to this.
@Tony – I would imagine the lack of polling in relation to Curtin is impacting the odds.
@luke
I think it was hard to look good when you decide to cut loose because they would just keep on asking costing. Having said that, I doubt it would impact much unless another brain fog happened during a presser.
Although I also wonder if Labor should have released its costing last week or on the day of Coalition launch (assume they’ve got the numbers)
@jt1983
Hope you’re right!! Worried though that voters yet to make up their mind might stick with the devil they know. A third of the votes are already in so that helps too.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #603 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 3:01 pm
Magic pudding management.
Frydenberg talking about Labor costings;
“We know they will be delivering a budget after the election”
So he is at the acceptance phase of emotional recovery.
There’s really no point “worrying” or second-guessing at this point. The boat is already out in the water.
A potent, magical creature that goes where Scummo is afraid to go. Scummo’s and Freya’s and Wayne’s and Steely’s and Michael’s and Bree’s and Nostradamus’ and TailoredMerde’s last hope.
Truly brilliant. A master-stroke!
What a great photo of Frydenberg and Howard. The only two living Liberal treasurers to oversee a recession.
Aaron newton says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 3:52 pm
Clenell just reported thatAndrew Clenell sky just reported Dai le clamed to control fairfield liberal party branch in 2020 desbite
being exbelled from liberals maybi labor is leaking against her
____________________________________
Labor may just have confused Dai Le with the Liberal candidate, Courtney Nguyen.
@Jude
Agree on the costings, releasing so late makes it seem like there’s something to hide. Surely there not still doing the numbers?
Should have sent Howard to the aged care homes instead.
And kept him there.
The memes have already started.
Lol – Oppositions ALWAYS release costings very late. Nothing to “worry” about – people have got to stop jumping at shadows – we are at the point where nothing short of a MAJOR external event is going to change the outcome.
Luke says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 4:10 pm
@Jude
Agree on the costings, releasing so late makes it seem like there’s something to hide. Surely there not still doing the numbers?
________________________
Only Michael Daley style dirt or something like a costings stuff-up could cause Labor to mist at this late stage.
Voted today in Hicksville, normally I like to vote on the day for the ‘atmosphere’ but ended up parking next to the polling booth so thought what the hey.
Decent stock of HTVer from all persuasions including the independent from here in Hicksville, glad to see the Labor HTV matched what my prefs were anyway and had the pleasure of a full below the line distribution to get all the RWNJ at the bottom. It did strike me how fragmented the RW vote is with all the nutjob minors. A most pleasant experience and got my own AEC pencil to keep.
Only disappointing thing, the nice cardboard ballot boxes replaced by these plastic totes with locks on, told them it is like packing away crap for the garage or putting out the washing. Guess it is a AEC response to the ‘voter fraud’ stuff that will come out from the cookers, so the process is there.
Didnt get a HTV from the cookers as dont want the infected passing on covid, then went to the lions bookshop as was confrunted by pensioners manning the tables coughing everywhere (behind perspecs and masks) saying “ohh i feel bad, have done a few tests but still negative” so no books for me today.
People who are worrying dont seem to have learnt anything over the 5 and half weeks
Every time the corrupt media attack Albanese , it doesnt benefit the lib/nats it turns people off the lib/nats
Afraid to say that I saw a lot of Liberal how to votes when I pre polled. Hope it was just the particular time I was voting
Anyway the corrupt media claims to know what Labor costings are already , so any attacks on Labor will backfire once again on the corrupt media and lib/nats
…stop jumping at shadows… stop finding reasons to panic/worry/have concerns…
The one thing 2019 taught me is to be prepared… if it happens, then, it’s happened before – so I won’t be shocked. I’ll be horrified – but I won’t be shocked.
@Dr Fumbles
Did you really vote at a place called Hicksville, or is that code for voting in a redneck town?
Luke,
It’s code for Queensland.
The Libs are trying to fight Labor and seem to be trying to secure seats requiring up to 5.5% swing as their benchmark.
They are also fighting the Teal Independents in their heartland seats. The problem here is the Libs have found the enemy and they is them. So, their traditional vote is splintering and because they are the “Nigel No friends” of preferences in these seats. So, depending on how well the Independents perform, the Libs are in serious danger of losing seats with double digit margins.
At the same time the Libs are looking for opportunities in seats like McEwan, Gilmore and Lingiari.
I reckon Morrison’s churlish behaviour earlier was nothing to do with the NITV reporter and her question. But, he has probably been given updates on the polling situation and the war was not working out to the Government’s advantage.
Provided the polling is reliable or there is no undetected swing back in the next few days, this is shaping up as a massacre.
OMG why is Fran Kelly banging on as though a hung parliament is more likely than not? FMD if you’re on 53 to 55 TPP as the polls are currently showing, you’re getting a majority. End of. The woman has reported on federal politics for decades and she comes up with this? What the hell is wrong with people? I know the media wants a contest but 53-55TPP ain’t it. Report the facts, not what you’d like to be the case.
To her credit Rebekah Sharkie is on Afternoon Briefing saying precisely that.
Honestly … I’m getting deja vu from the last week of the SA election.
jt1983
How so?
Are we voting for Howard?
All they have is Howard it seems
He was comprehensively booted out 15 years ago
Are they that desperate?
Lukesays:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 4:01 pm
Hope today’s press conference doesn’t damage Albo’s vote too much. Not sure of the full context but didn’t look great.
_____________________
It looked terrible.