Morgan: 53-47 to Labor

Roy Morgan ends its weekly campaign series finding the major parties collectively plumbing new depths, but with Labor in far the better position of the two. Plus yet more internal polling scuttlebutt, this time from Warringah, Fowler and North Sydney.

Roy Morgan has dropped its weekly federal campaign poll, which shows Labor’s two-party preferred lead narrowing from 54.5-45.5 to more believable 53-47. While this is Labor’s weakest two-party result from Roy Morgan since October, the respondent-allocated preferences measure the pollster used until last week had Labor at least one point higher when it was tied with the Coalition on the primary vote, and sometimes substantially higher. The two-party numbers are now determined by allocating preferences flows as per the result of the 2019 election.

The poll shows both major parties on what even by recent standards are remarkably low primary votes of 34% each, with Labor down 1.5% on last week and the Coalition steady. The Greens are on 13%, One Nation is on 4% and the United Australia Party is on 1%, all unchanged on last week, with independents up half to 9% and “others” up one to 5%.

The usual two-party state breakdowns have Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales, out from 51.5-48.5 last week for a swing of around 4% compared with 2019; 57-43 in Victoria, in from 61-39, also for a swing of around 4%; 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, in from 57.5-42.5 for a swing of about 10%; and 58-42 from the tiny Tasmanian sample. The Coalition leads 53-47 in Queensland, in from 53.5-46.5 for a swing to Labor of about 5.5%, and 51-49 in South Australia, its first lead on this small sample measure since October, and a rather stark contrast to Labor’s 62.5-37.5 lead last week (the result in 2019 was 50.7-49.3 in favour of Labor).

The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1366. It will naturally be Morgan’s last of the campaign if it sticks to its usual schedule, although it may well pull something from its hat on the eve of the big day. The final Essential Research poll will reportedly be out on Wednesday, and it’s a known known that Newspoll and Ipsos each have a poll to come (it’s disappointing that we haven’t seen any state breakdowns from Newspoll, but hope springs eternal), and I assume the same will be true of Resolve Strategic. Until then:

• Ten News is teasing yet another result of Liberal Party internal polling from Peter van Onselen, this time suggesting Katherine Deves is “in with a shot” of unseating Zali Steggall in Warringah, seemingly along with results from other seats including Parramatta and Bennelong. UPDATE: This turns out to show the Liberals trailing on two-party preferred measures that include an uncommitted component by 49-48 in Reid, 50-43 in Bennelong and 50-41 in Parramatta, with particularly heavy deficits among women, but by only 53-47 in Warringah.

• Tom McIlroy of the Financial Review reports a Redbridge Group poll for North Sydney commissioned by Climate 200 has Liberal member Trent Zimmerman on 33.3%, independent Kylea Tink on 23.5% and Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw on 17.8%, with 7.5% undecided. The poll was conducted between May 3 and 14 from a sample of 1267.

• James Morrow of the Daily Telegraph reports a poll of Fowler conducted by Laidlaw Campaigns, presumably for independent Dai Le’s campaign, has Kristina Keneally leading Le by 45% to 38% after distribution of preferences and without excluding the 17% undecided. The poll also found Le was viewed favourably by 28% and unfavourably by 10%, while Keneally was at 24% and 30%. It was conducted three weeks ago from a sample of 618.

• Katharine Murphy of The Guardian notes a campaign endorsement for Katy Gallagher by Julia Gillard reflects concern that a win for independent candidate David Pocock in the Australian Capital Territory Senate race could come at the expense of Gallagher, and not Liberal Senator Zed Seselja as had generally presumed. A recent Redbridge poll suggested Pocock had gauged enough of his support from Labor to reduce Gallagher to 27%, well below the one-third quota for election

• The Australian Electoral Commission has issued a statement announcing that advertising by conservative activist group Advance Australia linking independents Zali Steggall and David Pocock to the Greens is in breach of the Electoral Act. The relevant section is section 329, banning material “likely to mislead or deceive an elector in relation to the casting of a vote”. The section is very commonly used as the basis of unsuccessful complaints about misleading political advertising, when it has been consistently been found to apply very narrowly to efforts to deceive voters into casting their ballots differently from how they intended. However, the statement suggests that the ruling made after the 2019 election over Chinese language signs encouraging votes for the Liberals in the seat of Chisholm, although dismissed, offers “a new judicial precedent” that seemingly paved the way for a more expansive interpretation.

• Ben Raue has produced highly instructive charts showing how each state’s two-party preferred vote has deviatied from the national result at elections going back to 1958.

• At the risk of getting ahead of ourselves, Andrew Clennell of Sky News reports that Josh Frydenberg is “said to have the numbers” against Peter Dutton to succeed Scott Morrison as Liberal leader should the party lose the election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

950 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 13 of 19
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  1. tep says:
    Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 2:48 pm
    Don’t forget seat polls were way off in Queensland in 2019, showing tight results in seats that massively blew out in favour of the LNP.

    Yes…the pollsters got their demographic mix wrong.. in 2019 they over estimated the level of educated voters in Qld.. they have downgraded the cohort.

  4. Sceptic says:
    Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 3:00 pm

    tep says:
    Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 2:48 pm
    Don’t forget seat polls were way off in Queensland in 2019, showing tight results in seats that massively blew out in favour of the LNP.

    Yes…the pollsters got their demographic mix wrong.. in 2019 they over estimated the level of educated voters in Qld.. they have downgraded the cohort.
    中华人民共和国
    That’s right cobber I moved a couple of years before

  5. Efficiency is not doing less, it’s doing the same with less cost or effort.
    _______
    That’s not the way THIS mob thinks! They are fascinated by head counts. Hence the huge blowout on consultancies.

  6. Yes…the pollsters got their demographic mix wrong.. in 2019 they over estimated the level of educated voters in Qld.. they have downgraded the cohort.

    What, they took them BOTH out of the sample?

  7. poroti at 9.07 ‘super salesman’ quote

    In what universe is Morrison a ‘super salesman’? One could argue 2019 was a successful sales job by him, and epic fail by Labor, but this is the guy serially sacked by tourism organisations (plural!) The ‘where the bloody hell are ya?’ guy.

    Media propaganda, as usual.

  8. Howard’s got a hide getting around in a seat with a high Asian population. Wasn’t he the the dog whistle PM with his too many Asians stuff ?

  9. In Swan I’ve received letters from John Howard and Mark McGowan yesterday and one from Anthony Albanese last week.

  10. The Coalition calls it an efficiency dividend because it increases the efficiency of their shoveling of our tax dollars into the wallets of their spiv mates and donors in the ‘consultant community’. The dividend is the increase in donations and support.

  13. Does anyone under 60 even know (care) who John Howard is?
    At the time of the 2019 election Bob Hawke passed away…His being here and/or his going did not shift one vote to or from Labor at the time – I would speculate.
    Wheeling out really old relics is a bit like wheeling out the last living survivor of the US Civil War…The response is usually, “Gee, is he still alive? I thought he died years ago”…Same would apple to Howard I would guess…..

  16. ‘subgeometer says:
    Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 2:56 pm

    And they lost the Moskva as well as other vessels denying the use of the coast and the port of Odessa. Now they are facing drone attacks regularly around Snake Island. All of which would be unlikely if the Russians had got to Moldova’s border. And Ukrainians are reported(from what little I am following at the moment) to be regaining more of the western coastline’
    =======================
    Uh huh. Over and out.

  19. All in jest people….all in jest

    So we discover that:

    Qlders are not known for there academic achievements (Upnorth excluded.
    Tasmanians have a great affinity with their sisters and cousins.
    Victorians are contantly sipping lattes with their Hipster beards getting wet (that includes the women)
    South Australians are known to induce suicidal levels of Boredom on any visitors who took the wrong turn at Albury
    New South Wales residents are known to have necks thicker than their head
    Western Australians think that because they are on the west coast that makes them Californians….no, it just makes them 2679.4Km more isolated than South Aussies

    Edit:….think I will log out now

  20. I wonder why they’re resorting to letters from Mr Howard instead of Mr Abott or Mr Turnbull. Or, crazy idea, Mr Morrison.

  21. Liberals call in No.1 weapon to fight teals(Oz headline)

    John Howard joined Josh Frydenberg campaigning in Kooyong after visiting Chisholm and Higgins earlier, and helping out with robocalls and letters in other marginal seats.

    Must be a panicked pants shitting exercise by Howard and Murdoch.

  24. Have any of these been evident in this election..

    VIAGRA Side Effects by Likelihood and Severity
    COMMON side effects

    If experienced, these tend to have a Severe expression i

    Sorry, we have no data available. Please contact your doctor or pharmacist.

    If experienced, these tend to have a Less Severe expression i

    Stuffy Nose
    Indigestion
    Backache
    Dizziness
    Visible Water Retention
    Temporary Redness Of Face And Neck
    Headache
    Nosebleed
    Nausea

  25. Freya, you state that haven’t voted Liberal in NSW since 1995 when you voted for Greiner.
    Correct me, if I am mistaken, but it is my understanding that in 1995 John Fahey was Premier. Greiner ran into ICAC related concerns and had stood down from being Premier and as a Member of the NSW Legislative Assembly, prior to the 1995 elections.

  26. King OMalley at 9.57ish

    I think your seat range of 81-87 is highly likely, considering the spread of available polling.

  29. Freya at 10.08

    I don’t recall the % of 1993 polls. I do recall media stories in the last week of the campaign detailing a late swing to Labor.

    Hasn’t happened – at all – for your beloved Morrison yet. Might.

    If anything, the polling since week 1 of the campaign has restored much of the massive lead Labor had 2 or 3 months ago. So, a terrible campaign from your beloved Morrison to this point.

  30. Morrison criticising the NT Government for being unstable is pretty rich given the history of his own government, and of course, the former CLP Government.

    If I want to be entertained I just think about the Mills/Giles Government.

  31. Thanks sceptic it’s very interesting he retracted but Howard was great at saying something like that then walking it back. Whether he was doing it for political reasons or an old fashioned belief in what constitutes an Aussie I don’t know. It’s a shame to me that Labor being ahead of its time on issues never gets its due even sometimes from the people it benefits.

  33. Matt says:
    Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 2:04 pm
    The problems with resetting Aus/PRC relations are significant:

    1. Given that the Coalition has (rhetorically) embraced Sinophobia, how can Beijing have any confidence in even medium-term amiability/ cooperation?

    2. How do we actually work out a modus vivendi with an increasingly assertive PRC? Their notions of sovereignty seem to be unbalanced; they can critique us, but we can’t critique them. How do we address our very different interests/desires?

    3. What do we do if/when US/PRC relations deteriorate again? Do we pick sides; if so, on what criteria?
    ______________________________
    It’s akin to Curtin choosing alliance with the US in WW2. National Governments make these calls. A decision which will shape the next 50 years – If Labor chooses the Morrison defence line – then there is no turning back as essentially it is a bipartisan all the way with lbj position, if they choose neutrality there is also no turning back.

  37. For my predictions, im starting with;
    ALP: 90
    LNP: 55
    OTH: 6

    Its really only ALP prediction though, i will look closer at moving some LNP to OTH.
    The main difference for my prediction variation is that i believe preferences allocation is all messed up, using 2019 preference flow is flawed this election due to the huge changes in primaries, which i suggest leads to a ‘normalization’ of preference towards primary portions.
    The stronger primary vote for ALP relative to primary votes for ALP/LNP, will lead to a stronger preference flows to ALP.

    I have used the state breakdowns from bludgertrack, and allocated ALP preference according to GRN*0.8 + OTH*(ALP Prim/(ALP Prim+LNP Prim)).

    State 2PP i come up with are;
    NSW: 53.4
    VIC: 55.4
    QLD: 51.3 (large PHON might introduce error)
    WA: 54.6
    SA: 55.8

    I then plugged them into the ABC election calculator.

    I could be way off, but no herding in my predictions.

  38. With just days to go before the federal election, Defence Minister Peter Dutton has warned of an increased threat level to Australia, telling voters that Chinese military forces have been spotted sailing just 6,000km to the north of Australian borders.

    “They’re basically in Sydney Harbour. Prepare for war,” Dutton said in a radio interview today. “For the PRC to have its military personnel just 3,249 nautical miles off our coast is an unprecedented aggression against Australia. If the media would like an even smaller, scarier sounding number, that distance is just 1,079 leagues!”
    The Chinese troops spotted to the north are part of a military exercise that most Australians have called “minding their own business in their own country”. But Dutton has insisted it is an escalation and has put the nation on a war footing.

    He says the surveillance ship is “practically hugging our coastline”, confirming why Dutton is the way he is, having presumably never received a hug from his Dad unless it was from at least 250km away in international waters.

    The Chinese troops are expected to remain just .00005 astronomical units away from Australia. When asked why the surveillance boat was off the coast of Australia, Chinese authorities simply claimed they were “searching for Peter Dutton’s eyebrows”.

    The Shovel

  39. somethinglikethat says:
    Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 3:33 pm
    “No idea why you’re struggling Josh!”
    _______________________
    Is that Freya in the background standing behind the photographer?

  40. My prediction is: 86/56/8/1 – 53.5/46.5 2pp.
    ALP 86:
    Adelaide
    Ballarat
    Banks
    Barton
    Bass
    Bean
    Bendigo
    Bennelong
    Blair
    Blaxland
    Boothby
    Braddon
    Brand
    Brisbane
    Bruce
    Burt
    Calwell
    Canberra
    Casey
    Chifley
    Chisholm
    Cooper
    Corangamite
    Corio
    Cowan
    Cunningham
    Dobell
    Dunkley
    Eden-Monaro
    Fenner
    Fowler
    Franklin
    Fraser
    Fremantle
    Gellibrand
    Gilmore
    Gorton
    Grayndler
    Greenway
    Griffith
    Hawke
    Higgins
    Hindmarsh
    Holt
    Hotham
    Hunter
    Isaacs
    Jagajaga
    Kingsford-Smith
    Kingston
    Lalor
    Leichhardt
    Lilley
    Lindsay
    Lingiari
    Longman
    Lyons
    Macarthur
    Macnamara
    Macquarie
    Makin
    Maribyrnong
    Mcewen
    Mcmahon
    Moreton
    Newcastle
    Oxley
    Parramatta
    Paterson
    Pearce
    Perth
    Rankin
    Reid
    Richmond
    Robertson
    Ryan
    Scullin
    Shortland
    Solomon
    Spence
    Swan
    Sydney
    Watson
    Werriwa
    Whitlam
    Wills

    LNP 56:
    Aston
    Barker
    Berowra
    Bonner
    Bowman
    Bradfield
    Calare
    Canning
    Capricornia
    Cook
    Cowper
    Curtin
    Dawson
    Deakin
    Dickson
    Durack
    Fadden
    Fairfax
    Farrer
    Fisher
    Flinders
    Flynn
    Forde
    Forrest
    Gippsland
    Grey
    Groom
    Hasluck
    Herbert
    Hinkler
    Hughes
    Hume
    La-Trobe
    Lyne
    Mackellar
    Mallee
    Maranoa
    Mcpherson
    Menzies
    Mitchell
    Monash
    Moncrieff
    Moore
    New-England
    Nicholls
    O’Connor
    Page
    Parkes
    Petrie
    Riverina
    Sturt
    Tangney
    Wannon
    Wentworth
    Wide-Bay
    Wright

    Other 8
    Clark
    Goldstein
    Indi
    Kennedy
    Kooyong
    Mayo
    North-Sydney
    Warringah

    Greens 1
    Melbourne

  41. Macca RB @ #624 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 3:26 pm

    Freya, you state that haven’t voted Liberal in NSW since 1995 when you voted for Greiner.
    Correct me, if I am mistaken, but it is my understanding that in 1995 John Fahey was Premier. Greiner ran into ICAC related concerns and had stood down from being Premier and as a Member of the NSW Legislative Assembly, prior to the 1995 elections.

    Doncha know you’re supposed to believe everything Freya Stark says because they say it so authoritatively without blush? 😆

  44. Obviously many Liberals are anxious to find a scapegoat if they lose the election (SfM is a 3% drag on their vote per Bongo).

    It won’t matter if their whole approach to government has been atrocious. They are not into introspection – they want a sacrificial lamb and SfM is the obvious candidate. Of course SfM has obliged massively with his attitudes and behaviour.

    The Liberal Party after the election (assuming they lose) will be a sight to behold.

  45. Out of options and uncertain of what else to do in the face of an onslaught from independent candidates, Liberal Party MPs have smashed the glass and removed the little John Howard that sits on a wall at Liberal Party headquarters in Sydney.

    “Emergency! Emergency!” deputy leader Josh Frydenberg shouted, being careful not to get Howard’s eyebrows stuck in the glass as he pulled the little guy out of the box.
    Frantically reading the instructions as he held Howard in his hand, Frydenberg used a small key to wind up the former Prime Minister, aimed him towards the campaign trail and watched him spring to life and immediately run off to a media event to say something sexist.

    “It’s incredible how quickly he’s ready to go. Wind him up, let him spray bullshit everywhere and he immediately takes everyone back to the 1950s”.

    A party spokesperson said the emergency procedures were used sparingly. “This is something we definitely only use as a last resort once every federal election and at every state election and three to four times a year when we can’t think of anything else to do”.

    The Shovel article.

  46. If all those legitimate “predictors” (i.e. reputable pollsters and analysts) are willing to put it out there, they must now be quite confident their data is close to correct.

    We are not the only ones who had PTSD from 2019.

    I expect they’ve been far more rigorous in their analyses after 2019 — therefore I’d be VERY surprised if they were vastly wrong. They are all around 53/54 – 47/46.

    Journalists have skin in the game too – but theirs is eyes/clicks. If they project a done deal, people will be less attentive so they are ‘invested’ in promoting an ongoing uncertainty.

  47. Sceptic @ #615 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 2:46 pm

    Prince planet says:
    Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 3:09 pm

    George Megalogenis
    @GMegalogenis
    Interesting to reflect that 30 years before this speech, John Howard wanted to slow the rate of Asian migration. He was opposition leader at the time. Bob Hawke was prime minister. Hawke didn’t hedge his bets. He took Howard on. 1/13

    https://twitter.com/gmegalogenis/status/1107129742753292289

    That is a rather long but important twitter thread. He is omitting some observations there about the relationship and the 7/13 post is just WTF? but still worth a read.

  48. What next for Josh Frydenburg? Exhuming Sir Robert Menzies from the grave and getting him out on the hustings, Weekend at Bernie’s style? 😆

  50. My wife and I have received a letter from John Howard.

    He refers to his economic record.

    I have rung the Liberal Party to advise that I had contact with Howard in 1980, he as treasurer and where the economic circumstances of that time saw banks collapsing, forced into mergers.

    I will not go further than that, because it may identify me.

    But I have given the events of that time to the Liberal Party and asked that my response be conveyed directly to Howard.

    This individual was not only the worst treasurer in history, but the most divisive and worst pm

    And still he is around!!!!!

    Some of us are old enough to remember him and the damage he wrought on Australia and Australians as treasurer

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