The final Resolve Strategic poll for the Age/Herald campaign provides evidence for the long-delayed narrowing, with Labor down three points on the primary vote since the mid-campaign poll to 31% and the Coalition up a point to 34%. The Greens are down a point from an improbable height last time to 14%, while One Nation are up one to 6%, the United Australia Party are down one to 4%, independents are up two to 6% and others are steady on 4%. The accompanying report provides a two-party preferred result based on historic preference flows of 52-48 in favour of Labor, compared with 54-46 last time. Anthony Albanese has nonetheless narrowed the gap on preferred prime minister, which is in from 39-33 to to 40-36, and he is up three on approval to 40% and steady on disapproval at 48%. Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 50%.
The poll was conducted Thursday through to today from a sample of 2049 compared with the usual 1400 or so, because it “added several hundred telephone responses to the customary online responses to give it a larger base”. This hasn’t made the pollster any more generous with its breakdowns, which remain limited to gender and the three largest states. By my calculation, the Coalition leads by around 51.5-48.5 in New South Wales, which is fully ten points stronger for the Coalition than the previous poll and suggests no swing compared with 2019. Labor’s 53-47 lead in Victoria is also about the same as the 2019 result, and four points weaker for Labor than the previous poll. However, the Coalition is now credited with a lead of 53-47 in Queensland, representing a roughly 5.5% swing to Labor and a shift in Labor’s favour of at least four points compared with the previous poll. The “rest of Australia” measure has shifted around four points in Labor since the previous poll, and around seven points compared with the 2019 result.
With increasing talk about women dooming the Coalition to defeat, the poll offers an interesting take on the gender gap in crediting the Greens 19% support among women compared with 9% among men, feeding into a four-point gap on two-party preferred. Morrison’s personal ratings are in fact quite a bit stronger among women than in the previous result, resulting in only a modest distinction on his net approval, although Morrison leads 45-37 among men but is tied with Albanese at 36-36 among women.
UPDATE: David Crowe of the Age/Herald offers a two-party preferred of 52-48 in one article and 51-49 in another. My calculation splits it right down the middle.
UPDATE 2: The final Essential Research poll of the campaign is probably available on The Guardian’s site by the time you read this – Peter van Onselen tweeted last night that it had Labor leading 51-49. Also just out is an Utting Research poll for The West Australian showing teal independent Kate Chaney leading Liberal member Celia Hammond 52-48 in Curtin, from primary votes of 38% for Hammond, 32% for Chaney, 13% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for the United Australia Party. The poll was conducted Monday from a sample of 514. All this and a lot more will be covered in a new post tomorrow.
The parameters of 52-48 has been a part of Oz voting for a very long time…Every now and then a bit on either side……
This time it is not a case of the LNP overhauling a Labor government as much as the discontent with Morrison being enough to get Labor sufficient seats to form government.
The big difference this time is that the disaffection with Morrison is shown in the poor showing of the LNP’s Primary Vote……………This has been low for a long, long time….The issue is where the 6-7% PV goes. Currently the opinion polls are not sure either…To be on the safe side they seem to be lobbing them 50-50 to both sides….
On a number of occasions I have made the point for WA, that if Labor cannot pick up two extra seats by way of Swan and Pearce, then I cannot see a time when they will ever win them…..Hasluck is probably safe for the LNP unless there is a local swing..
The very interesting case is Tangney whereby if Chaney gets enough PV’s – at the expense of the Liberals – and Labor can acquire some decent numbers, then Chaney will get in.
If Labor should win two, and Tangney goes, the LNP are down 3. On top of this the seat of Stirling is gone and so this is not a rosey picture for the LNP….
Some more intelligent people have asked, “Where are the LNP wins to come from?” On the basis of the above it may well be lean pickings in WA for any.
WeWantPaul says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 9:52 am
“Julie Bishop has refused to back in her successor as Curtin MP Celia Hammond, instead predicting Teal Independent Kate Chaney will provoke ‘a lot of soul searching’ in the party with a win in her old seat.”
Bishop is great at soul searching from a distance! So long as her career doesn’t require a sacrifice like moral bravery, except for then she is a strong moderate voice.
Bishop is campaigning for Chaney. She quit the Parliament last time. Not bad for a one-time Deputy Leader. She has declined to stump for the WA Liberals and she’s given Chaney a leg-up. Good on her.
A low Labor primary opens up the possibility of Cooper and Wills being threatened by the Greens. In any case it will still be interesting to see how demographic trends are impacting on these seats which I believe will inevitably turn Green.
Bystander @ #742 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 9:55 am
That’s because you’re a Labor supporter. If she is as impressive as you say, Labor voters will come away thinking she would surely support Labor, and COALition voters would come away thinking she would surely support the COALition 🙂
Let’s just hope enough pro-action independents and minors win to get an agreement on adequate climate action from at least one of the major parties. Otherwise we’re all stuffed.
The main election pages of the deadwood version of The Worst Australian newspaper here in the cave surprisingly positive for Albo. A double page spread on page 6-7 dominated by a picture of Albo and a v large headline
The ‘pro business’ bit a bigly surprise from a paper like this is.
The main election pages of the deadwood version of The Worst Australian newspaper here in the cave surprisingly positive for Albo. A double page spread on page 6-7 dominated by a picture of Albo and a v large headline
The ‘pro business’ bit a bigly surprise from a paper like this is.
In what may be a reset election, the performance of the polling companies will come under analysis.
If we accept that the PV are more or less accurate, up to 30% of the electorate have said “same-same” and gone for an alternative.
In creating a 2pp number, the pollsters are estimating how an unprecedented number of votes will fall and the only evidence they use is how a different group of voters voted last time.
Comparison to actual results will be interesting
The victorian health system is under pressure.
But every health system throughout the nation is.
In fact, to date victorian health workers have not walked off the job like elsewhere.
Infrastructure projects are going full steam ahead.
This victorian govt will be remembered as transformative for this state, despite the pandemic.
I’ll make a prediction: anyone relying on this individual Resolve poll to make predictive statements will end up with egg on their face.
“It makes a good deal of sense for Essential to avoid projecting 2PP results”
The point of political polling is to understand who will win election – I would say it makes them pointless and has made them pointless all along. My sense is Essential mostly want to be in the “issues polling” business and the political numbers are just done as a required extra. My opinion of their issues polling is that, like all other issues polling, it is pretty shit.
I just watched the Tracy Grimshaw ( A Current Affair) interview of PM Scott Morrison.
If that is now considered a tough interview then standards have dropped to the bottom of a very deep well and we have lost all sense of proportion.
Yes, Grisham did ask a very few tough questions and challenged Morrison a few times. However, she also let him ramble on making excuses or giving long-winded statements as answers. She had no statistics nor any references to facts as a followup to his statements.
It seemed like this was set up so Grimshaw voiced the criticisms voters might be holding in their minds and Morrison gave it his best to pour oil on troubled waters.
It was, to me, just another style of propaganda served up in a last ditch attempt to change doubtful voter’s minds. It was imho just another vote harvest in the closing days of the campaign.
If that was Morrison getting a grilling, then I am Mary Poppins!
Puffytmd @ #759 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 10:06 am
I’ve been waiting for someone level-headed with a firm grip on reality to report on this. Thanks.
As I suspected.
The AFR did a timeline of how they editorialised each election since they existed – the article could have been shorter by 95% if they just said “always the Coalition except those 2 times we supported Hawke when we were on schnapps”.
Well I’ve just put a $50 bet on the lnp (bonus $100) if they win I walk away with $345.
If they don’t then I won’t miss the $50.
Hopefully my luck holds and they don’t win.
Seen this pamphlet circulating in Canberra:
Very Holy Very Important Election Information
From the desk of God Almighty
You can save Australia’s soul with your vote
Australia’s soul is in danger from extreme evil.
Many candidates are WORKING FOR THE DEVIL and want to destroy your freedom and enjoyment of life and doom your soul to burn in hell.
You can save YOUR COUNTRY AND SOUL by voting for good Godly candidate!
The following parties and candidates are EVIL and you must not vote for them:
– Labor
– Greens
– Liberal
– David Pocock
– Australian Progressives
– Kim Rubenstein
– Tim Bohm
The following parties and candidates WORK FOR GOD and YOU MUST VOTE FOR THEM
– Informed Medical Options
– United Australia
– One Nation
Authorised by God Almighty, in Heaven
poroti
No surprise, that photo with Stokes tells a story.
It’s a pity that there is no equivalent of Chris Wallace or Jake Tapper in Australian media. Say whatever you want about US news outlets but there are a few very tough folks that just don’t let the interviewee go unchecked.
Leigh Sales’ interview of James Comey was not even as good as the one by Stephen Colbert. Tells you something.
The Essential poll is not all bad news for Labor. NSW has improved in both PV & TPP. It is almost a 4% swing to Labor TPP since 2019. Even QLD looks OK with a similar swing. VIC has a slight swing to LNP.
beguiledagain says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 12:53 am
Douglas and Milko says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 5:52 pm
Reid is now very much a silver tail seat. My son lived there for quite some years, and despite the fact that he and Sam Dastyari were neighbours / played with their kids at the park together, the surrounding denizens were Liberal to a person.
Reid has the prime real-estate of Gladesville bay, with wonderful yacht moorings, decent sized backyards, while being a very quick commute to the CBD business hubs of either Barangaroo, or North Sydney by ferry.
Reid is not coming back to the Labor fold anytime soon, is my guess.
—————————————————————————-
Sad to hear that. I grew up in Reid (Lowe in Billy McMahon’s heyday).
We moved from lower Ryde to central Concord when it was a lower middle-class suburb. My Mum used an unexpected inheritance to buy a house for 2,000 pounds while my Dad was with the AIF in the Middle East. That house is now worth about $3 million.
The area has become very trendy, despite the fact that new housing developments in parts of Mortlake and Cabarita have a somewhat toxic history. I notice that they now don’t mention Mortlake and call it Breakfast Point or Concord.
In Mortlake there was the AGL gas works and across Tennyson Road on the riverside were numerous chemical businesses. At Cabarita, next to the Park, was the BALM paint factory (British Australian Lead Manufacturers) and next door a sheep dip factory. I wouldn’t want think about what crud is at the bottom of Canada Bay.
Across the mighty Parramatta, during World War II, below the house in Gladesville where I was born, they used the bay as a dump for aviation fuel containers. And along the shore they had warning signs SHARK do not swim.
I don’t think the developers mentioned that in their promotional material that referred to “harbor-side living.”
@Itep – technically didn’t say it was ‘Authorised by God – Heaven’… someone should alert the AEC.
Poroti….
Your observations of the twists and turns of the West are interesting…..
Despite the poor start they gave to Albo in their “Who Won the Day?” bit, Albo is leading 16-12 with today, tomorrow and Friday to go…So, if Morrison wins all remining three the score ends of 16-15 in favour of Albo with 10 “Ties”.
At the start of the campaign, after the first week, Morrison was leading about 8 to nil or similar.
While such “polls” as this are mere bagatelle the conservatives were quick to pounce on the early scores when Albo was considered, by the West, it the first week, as being “unfit” to be PM….
If the opinion polling is accurate
The lib/nats combined primary vote 35%/36% will be the lowest in over 20 years
Scott – and if the Opinion Polling is correct it will be the ALP’s lowest evah!
Victoria
At work contemplating that 5683 people have died of Covid this year in Australia, compared to 909 in 2020 and 1317 in 2021.
Australia is averaging 41 Covid deaths per day this year – at this rate we will have about 15,000 by year’s end.
A colleague just suggested that on January 1st the federal government flicked the switch from pandemic to election. And many people have followed suit. The virus doesn’t care what people think – the pandemic is not over.
Arky says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:05 am
“It makes a good deal of sense for Essential to avoid projecting 2PP results”
The point of political polling is to understand who will win election
The point of polling as carried out by the parties is to help guide their campaigns. To that end, they conduct their own polling. I reckon that polling will show a range of possibilities, from incredibly tight to total blow-out. The reason for the wide range is that the pref intentions of 3rd voice voters are very difficult to measure.
One thing will be for sure, though: the Lying Reactionaries, with the help of Cambridge Analytica and Crosby Textor will be trying to work out what those intentions are and where the susceptibilities are to be found. They know how to talk to those who are most likely to vote for them. They will be doing just that. They will be using the economy-mystery, phobia and self-interest to do it. Make no mistake. This has always worked for them.
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:20 am
Scott – and if the Opinion Polling is correct it will be the ALP’s lowest evah!
—————
Labor been averaging 37-38%
Lib/nats been stuck on 35/36 for 10 months or more
Could we please have a roll call off ex-Liberal MPs providing tacit support for teal independents?
I have Turnbull and Bishop. Are there any others?
Actually Reid is half silvertail, half very working class.
I am an odd man out in that I live in the silvertail end but my roots are very mu ch working class.
We have large Italian, Greek and Chinese populations in the silvertail end (so not all likely to be LNP sympathisers) while there’s big Korean, Chinese, Russian and Indian/Sri Lankan groups in the non silvertail end.
As an electorate it is extremely diverse. Locally there is a very strong Labor presence.
I am in Mortlake in an older waterfront unit (not the newer constructions). I didn’t know they had a bad reputation — where did that come from??
Liam Mendes
@liammendes
Exclusive: More than 20 of the UAP’s 173 candidates have faced court in the past, or face ongoing matters, raising questions about the internal vetting process used to select them.
ltep
Now wouldn’t that pamphlet upset Morrison!!
Also did it have offical AEC authorisation by God?
Scott 31% PV (as per Resolve) is worse than Shorten. Maybe Scullin did worse? I’ll have to consult Great Aunt Mathilde.
3 in 10 Australians have rejected ALP + Liberals.
Abbott and Turnbull under the old Liberal party rules were replaced as Leader
When the Lib/nats combined primary vote didn’t move from 37/38% for 5-6 months in a row
While @Scott’s cope-posting is a little on the annoying side – it does reflect a pretty irrefutable point – and I won’t go on about this.
There is SOMETHING odd going on. In 2019, the ‘odd’ was my feeling of this sliding away but the polling saying otherwise. Honestly, and I said I would be honest… I have the reverse feeling. The polling is saying there’s a narrowing trend (albeit, were it not for 2019 people would be feeling good about 52/53 2PPs three days out) – but I just don’t see how the dynamics are there for the Libs to scrape back in (but we all know it CAN/COULD happen). Even if possible – it could well be the 2PP will end up relatively immaterial or non-reflective of the overall outcome.
I do think Labor will form Government – but my only real prediction is this is going to be one of the strangest election nights we’ve ever seen. These low primaries, but especially, if the Liberal primary vote stays where it is, are going to make this very very strange. While I’ve given Kos shit for his vague-Twittering… his point of many by-elections deciding this election is probably going to be very very true.
Big A Adrian at 9.01 re Frydenberg depicted with tennis gear…
Late start for me…others may have responded already…
It’s because Kooyong was, until 1988, regularly the home of the Australian Open tennis tournament. It is also a good ‘born with silver spoon’ look…
Here is Morrison under the lowest Lib/nats combined vote for 10 months in a row , still the leader of the liberal party
Griffsays:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:25 am
Could we please have a roll call off ex-Liberal MPs providing tacit support for teal independents?
I have Turnbull and Bishop. Are there any others?
______________________________
Well Griff,
Pat Farmer is supporting Fat Palmer…
”
Leroysays:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 9:37 am
Full Essential now online
https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/18-may-2022
Edit: seems to be missing voting numbers on that form, as least for now.
”
Albanese net approval in positive territory and Morrison net approval is in negative territory.
Preferred PM gap has narrowed to 3.
Morrison 40% & Albanese 37%
Holdenhillbilly @ #776 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 10:25 am
Anyone who has any legal proceedings or has been bankrupt shouldn’t be able to run – you can’t get some government/military jobs if you aren’t clean.
Summary Postal Vote Statistics as at the end of Tuesday 17 May –
(Postal votes for yesterday are yet to be published)A total of 2,612,638 postal vote applications had been received representing 15.2% of enrolment. This compares to 1,538,139 in 2019 or 9.4% of enrolment.
1,154,601 postal votes have been returned representing 6.7% of enrolment or 44.2% of dispatched postal vote packs.
In 2019 84.0% of postal votes dispatched were returned, though 3% postals did not make it through scrutiny so only 81.0% of postal votes dispatched made it into the count.
Postal votes admitted to the count in 2019 represented 7.6% of enrolment, or 8.2% of votes. (Based on House ballot papers admitted.)
Summary Pre-Poll Statistice –
Pre-polls to date are 3,212,029 compared to 3,026,454 at the same time in 2019. There were a massing 615,041 pre-polls taken on Tuesday, just undern 200,000 more than on the equivalent day in 2019. There have been five fewer days of pre-polling in 2022 because of the change in the law, but the number of pre-polls has passed the number taken in the longer period in 2019. See graphs below. Pre-polls currently represent 18.6% of enrolled voters compared to 18.4 at the equivalent date in the second week of pre-polling in 2019.
https://antonygreen.com.au/5647-2/
Trust me P1. Any coalition supporter listening to what I heard would come away uttering obscenities and wanting to cut her throat. There was no mistaking it. She will favour Labor.
I suggest you have a listen to it yourself before making any further judgements on it.
@Lars “Scott – and if the Opinion Polling is correct it will be the ALP’s lowest evah!”
False. Labor got 33.34% last election. Correct me if I’m wrong, but every pollster except Resolve has labor primary consistently above that. And even for resolve, this is the first time it is that low.
@Lars is just enjoying people squirming and being uncomfortable and nervous.
Those pesky Teals…
Griff @ #645 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 10:25 am
IF not already mentioned:
Fred Chaney: https://www.theage.com.au/national/i-was-deputy-leader-of-the-liberals-the-party-i-served-has-lost-its-way-20220502-p5ahuz.html
Ian Macphee: https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/05/15/ian-macphee-liberal-minister-vote-independent/
Griff
Ian MacPhee (long time Liberal member for Goldstein 1974-1990, and a minister) who unloaded on the Liberals in Crikey (but non paywalled in msn)
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/the-liberal-party-is-beyond-reform-that-s-why-this-former-liberal-minister-says-you-should-vote-independent/ar-AAXhdqC?li=AAgfYrC&ocid=iehp&fbclid=IwAR3nRoUmcuMEFKa1x1tvp2MebkCRdNmDA6iGJCIHZDMnoP7p0OPuFXS-tys
Rocket rocket
The pandemic is not over.
Masks should still be a thing in public places.
I never stopped wearing one.
“nathsays:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:02 am
A low Labor primary opens up the possibility of Cooper and Wills being threatened by the Greens. In any case it will still be interesting to see how demographic trends are impacting on these seats which I believe will inevitably turn Green.”
The interesting phenomena is that, despite continuing gentrification, those seats are further away from the Greens than they were a decade ago. You can get $14 for the Greens candidates in those seats if you are eager to give your money away. The Labor candidates are paying $1.01
I wonder how much a driver of this is the fact the Greens wielding power on the corresponding councils has turned people off?
LVT…..
Take away the 3-4% of the PV accruing to the Nationals and this suggests barely 3 voters in 10 actually want a Liberal government….Add the Nationals vote and this means 3 1/2 people in 10 want an LNP government…Most voters (7/10) really don’t want Morrison and his crew…
The challenge for Labor is to be the biggest representative of the majority to actually govern…..
The minority party the Liberals pander to with their 800,000 plus voters and the 10 seats or so they bring in, makes it look as though this combined outfit speaks for the majority of Australian voters….They do not.
Labor has to play by the rules…and that makes the game harder….Those 10-12% of votes which now go to the Greens and the baggage of votes which goes to all the other much smaller outfits is the real challenge.
One clear outcome…regardless….is that the PV of the LNP is continuing to fall and the right side of politics will continue to splinter the LNP…..Roll on the day……..
LNP in to $2.85.
From $4.20 a day ago.
Freya at 9.17
“Face it all, Labor are toast.”
Withering analysis. You forgot to add “I tells ya!” but maybe mundo has trademarked that.
How are the plastic sheets, mundo? Maybe save the cotton ones by putting the plastic layer on top! Slight reduction in comfort…